If They Retired Today...

Which players in the NFL are "locks" for the Hall of Fame? These are the players, arranged by position, who I think would make the HOF if they retired tomorrow. Note that not all of these players are first-ballot HOFers. (In fact, only two guessable quarterbacks and possibly a corner or two merit that honor.) These are just the guys I think have already assembled a Canton-worthy career. Note also that this can theoretically change in the future; a sufficiently terrible personal incident (cough cough) or a severe performance drop-off can be enough to cost someone a spot (although in theory the latter shouldn't be). I'll talk about a few notable runners-up at each position if applicable.

Quarterbacks:
- Peyton Manning. Manning has already put together the greatest career of anyone in NFL history. He's been a dead lock for the past decade. Five MVPs, 7 FTAPs, and a trajectory that puts him on pace to break basically every good passing volume record.
- Tom Brady. He's been a dead lock for the past decade, too. If his three Super Bowl wins weren't enough (they are), his individual dominance since '07 surely is. Brady in '07 and Manning in '04 are probably the two best passing seasons ever, and if not they share the top four with Young in '94 and Marino in '84. If this pattern keeps up, expect the fifth season to be Wilson in '14. It's hannenin.
- Drew Brees. This is the one that might come as a little bit of a surprise, although it shouldn't. Breesus has obliterated records in his career, including the seasonal cmp% record (twice in three years) and the seasonal yardage record (in 2011). He still holds the two highest marks on the cmp% leaderboard, as well as the #s 2, 4, 5, and 7 spots on the yardage board. He's 4th on the career yardage chart, 4th in TDs, 7th in PR, and 7th in ANY/A. QB is an incredibly competitive position nowadays, but Brees is easily going to make it into the Hall.

Notable exclusions:
- Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has one of the best career trajectories in NFL history. He's been among the most efficient QBs in the league since he took over the starting job from Brett Favre in 2008. And if it were up to me, I'd put Rodgers in the Hall tomorrow. But I think the selection committee would view things differently. He only has three Pro Bowl selections somehow, and one FTAP (to go with his MVP). Maybe the MVP is enough to sneak him in, but I'm guessing it's not.
- Philip Rivers. This one is notable because I think Rivers should make the Hall. He's had an exceptional career thus far and is currently in the midst of his best season yet. But he hasn't been recognized by the press as being one of the "big four" QBs in the current league, and his inconsistency in 2011 and '12 doesn't help.
- Tony Romo. Same story. Romo is probably the most underrated quarterback of all time. Seriously. He's 5th in career PR (6th when Russell Wilson gets counted) and 4th in career ANY/A (5th when Wilson gets counted). The QBs he beats in both categories include Brady, Montana, Marino, and Brees. The only QBs he loses to in both are... (ready?)... Rodgers, Manning, and Wilson. BOOM.


Running Backs:
- None.

Notable exclusions:
- Adrian Peterson. If he never beat his kid (warning: depressing as fuck), we could talk about his odds. (Spoilers: Good but not a lock.) But he did, so he's never going to make the Hall of Fame. Hopefully. He BETTER not. I may not agree with the exclusion of Pete Rose from Cooperstown, but I sure as hell agree with keeping AD (it feels wrong to use that nickname now) out of Canton.


Wide Receivers:
- None.

Notable exclusions:
- Calvin Johnson. Megatron has started his career as well as anyone not named Rice. Or Moss. Or possibly Harrison. Or Torry Holt. The point is, he's looking like in a few years he will be a lock at receiver. But if he retired right now, he's immediately competing with the likes of Terrell Owens, Harrison, Moss, Isaac Bruce, Holt, and Tim Brown, shortly to be joined by Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and eventually (depending on how long it takes for the guys in front of him to get in) Brandon Marshall and the like. That's a hell of a logjam. I just don't know if his few seasons of dominance are enough to get him in. They might be. But I'm going to err on the side of conservatism.


Tight Ends:
- Antonio Gates. Gates is a monster. He's slowed down recently but he's still one of the best TEs ever and easily a lock.
- Jason Witten. Witten is the most complete TE ever not named Gronk. His career qualifies him and it's still going.

Notable exclusions:
None.


Offensive Tackle:
- Joe Thomas. Here we come to the really hard part of the assessment, where we have to determine what to do with guys who were dominant during their careers (4+ FTAP selections), but only played 6-8 years. My inclination, at least in the case of Thomas, is to leave him out, because I don't think he's that good. (I was spoiled by watching Walter Jones But there's not a whole lot of precedent for a player to earn 4 FTAPs and not make the Hall.

Notable exclusions:
None.


Offensive Guard:
- Jahri Evans. Here's another example of what I was talking about with Thomas. Four absolutely dominant years and a few more good ones. Hard to shut him out of the Hall.

Notable exclusions:
- Logan Mankins. He had a longer career, but a lower peak. I can't put every good guard who played on a great line in Canton.
- Evan Mathis. I also can't put every transcendentally great guard who played almost entirely under the radar into Canton. I mean, I would. Mathis should make the Hall. He's been the best offensive lineman in the league for several years now. He just won't.


Center:
None.

Notable exclusions:
None. Center is bad right now.


Defensive Tackle:
- Kevin Williams. One of the most dominant DTs ever from '04-'09. He absolutely tore shit up with Pat Williams back in the day. Five FTAPs guarantee his place in Canton.

Notable exclusions:
- Haloti Ngata. He's close, but he's not there.


Defensive End:
- Julius Peppers. Peppers was a beast for nearly a decade before slowing down recently. He's another one of those guys where there's just no question.
- Jared Allen. Allen, despite being a white person playing defensive end (which is the exception), has shown himself to be one of the most dominant pass-rushers in league history. Again, this one is pretty cut-and-dry already.

Notable exclusions:
- Justin Smith. He probably deserves it, and he was one of the most dominant 34DE's we'd seen before Watt. But then we saw Watt and Smith just wasn't that impressive anymore.
- John Abraham. His career was too stretched-out. He vacillated between being really good, good, and pretty bad, which isn't a recipe for a HOF career.
- Dwight Freeney. Dwight's REALLY close. He's a three-time FTAP, but beyond those years he just hasn't been that great.


Inside Linebacker:
- Patrick Willis. Willis is one of the guys with a crazy-good career trajectory. Seven Pro Bowls and five FTAPs in his seven-(full)-year career to date.

Notable exclusions:
None.


Outside Linebacker:
- DeMarcus Ware. Freak beast monster.

Notable exclusions:
- Lance Briggs. Was never quite good enough.
- Terrell Suggs. I didn't know who he was before 2011.
- James Harrison. Incredibly dominant for two non-consecutive years, but not that great for the rest.


Cornerback:
- Champ Bailey. Champ was the first really great corner I ever watched. He's also put together one of the all-time great careers at the position. Why am I even writing this? Champ's a lock.
- Charles Woodson. So is Woody.

Notable exclusions:
- Darrelle Revis. Revis is a beast. His '09 season might be the best season by a corner in history. But he just hasn't played long enough or been dominant consistently enough. He barely misses out.


Safety:
- Troy Polamalu. Same deal as Harrison, only better. If we remember one defender from those Steelers teams, it'll be Polamalu. That'll be enough to get him in.

Notable exclusions:
None.


Kicker/Punter:
- Shane Lechler. He has a case. I think Ray Guy might have been a one-time deal, but if anyone can get in, it's Lechler. Among pure punters, he pretty much has the greatest career in history. In fact, he's almost certainly better than Guy was. Guy's in Canton because of what he did for the position and because he has this mystique associated with his abilities, sort of like a poor man's Bo Jackson or Wilt Chamberlain. The truth is that he was a great punter, probably the best of his era, but he wasn't what people sometimes make him out to be. Lechler is more "real-life": He's great, undoubtedly--those six FTAP selections (twice as many as Guy's 3) aren't decorative--but you know who he is. You know what you're getting from Lechler. He lacks the magic of Guy, which arises largely from the fact that most football fans, and many members of the media for that matter, aren't old enough to have seen Prime Guy, and so they (we) make their (our) judgements based on the stories and what little footage we can dig up. Lechler is better than Guy. He just doesn't have the narrative behind him. But I have to believe that the committee will recognize how great Lechler has been and put him in eventually.

Notable exclusions:
None. (Lechler was SO close to being in this category. I moved him up just before publishing.)


Kick Returner/Punt Returner:
- Devin Hester. This one is risky, because ST guys don't usually make it to Canton. But Ray Guy has broken that ground, and now the way is open for the greatest return man in the history of the game (by far) to take the kickoff to the house. In Canton. Hester exploded onto the scene in 2006 and has pretty much demolished every KR/PR record since then, without ever really looking like he had to try.

Notable exclusions:
None.