Monday, September 29, 2014

Week Four vs. My Power Rankings

Once again, I failed to make predictions last week. That's all about to change... FOREVER. But until it does I just have to compare the results with my power rankings. Here goes.

Giants (25) @ Redskins (10): Giants, 45-14. I don't understand how the Giants keep winning. The connection of Eli Manning to Larry Donnell, a player whom I'd never heard of prior to fifteen seconds ago, somehow produced three touchdowns against a defense I had ranked in the top ten. Kirk Cousins threw a lot of picks, which football god would say isn't a big deal, but which I say suggests that he's making a higher rate of bad decisions. Washington's so ridiculously up and down. I can't handle the heartbreak. Verdict: Wrong.

Packers (20) @ Bears (6): Packers, 38-17. That'll happen. Elite QBs do tend to win games, and the Packers have one and the Bears don't. There's not really a lot you can do when one of the five best QBs of all time decides to throw for a 151.2 passer rating against you. Unless you're the '13 Seahawks, in which case you tell him to shove it and blow his team out 43-8. Yeah. Verdict: Wrong.

Bills (11) @ Texans (16): Texans, 23-17. So Ryan Fitzpatrick officially isn't actually good. If you were still wondering. But JJ Watt is probably the best player I've ever seen. He might be one of the ten best players of all time*, and he's gunning for that #1 spot (currently held by Jerry Rice). He might be the right MVP choice, but since defensive players don't tend to win MVP, I'm sticking with my Wilson pick. Verdict: Wrong. You'll never stop hurting me, Texans.

* Best, not 'greatest,' whatever the fuck that means. I got a list. Here's the order of my list that it's in. It goes, Jerry, Peyton, Barry and Lawrence. Walt from the Seahawks, Reggie, Deion Sanders, and Alan. Page. And Jim Brown and JJ Watt. I lost the rhythm a little bit toward the end but you get the idea. Watt legitimately might be top five if he keeps improving, although that top five is incredibly hard to break into. Steve Young gets Honorable Mention. Don Hutson gets the 'you're too old so you probably weren't that good' award; Night Train Lane and Johnny Unitas are runners-up for the same. (But to be honest Unitas is a ways off this list even if he wasn't old AF.**)

** AF means As Fuck. And yes, Jim Brown makes it and Unitas doesn't, because... Do I really need to get into this? Okay, fine. First of all, the passing game has changed WAY more than the running game. If you account for factors like better gear, nutrition, training programs, steroids, etc., there's a good chance Brown dominates today's NFL, sort of like a bigger, stronger, less child abuse-y Adrian Peterson. Meanwhile I'm not at all convinced Unitas translates, especially given his relatively low efficiency and the massive complexity of, and demand for accuracy in, today's passing game. Second, even within their own eras, Brown was WAY more dominant than Unitas. Brown fucking crushed it every single year. He played nine years (8x FTAP). In that span he led the league in rushing eight times, in TDs five times, and in YPC twice. He rushed for 133.1 YPG and 127.3 YPG on separate occasions (he has the #2 and #10 all-time seasonal spots, as well as the #1 career spot by a margin of 4.5 yds/game, which is almost twice the margin between #2 (Sanders) and #4 (the perpetually underrated Terrell Davis). He also has the third-highest career YPC average among running backs. During his career (1957-65), Brown ranked #1 in rushing yards (with 12,312, 64% greater than #2's 7502 and 123% greater than #3's 5526); #1 in rushing touchdowns (with 106, 38% greater than #2's 77 and 121% greater than #t3's 48); #1 in yards per game (by a lot, obviously; I won't bother with the numbers); and #1 in Y/A (5.22, slightly greater than #2's 5.06). Meanwhile Unitas was only the clear-cut best quarterback in the league a handful of times (5x FTAP, tied for 4th among QBs (with Sid Luckman, behind Otto Graham, Manning, and Dutch Clark, but nowhere near Brown's dominance), and over his career he ranks 6th in PR, 11th in cmp%, 5th in YPA, and 32nd in ANY/A. Even if we JUST look at his prime (call it '57-'67, his first and last Pro Bowl years), he ranks 2nd in rating, 5th in cmp%, but 1st in YPA and volume stats. I'm never going to write a "Johnny Unitas Sucks" article (I may or may not be putting the finishing touches on one for another QB at the moment), because he didn't suck. But all this talk by wanna-be football historians about how Unitas is the GOAT and would dominate today's NFL lies somewhere between unfounded conjecture and bullshit.

Titans (29) @ Colts (23): Colts, 41-17. Oh look, I got one right. My rankings got one right, actually, because I should probably be trying to separate myself from these shit results. Andrew Luck has suddenly strung together two consecutive excellent games. In fact, two of his three best career performances (and two of his three career games above a 120 passer rating--RUSSELL WILSON HAS NINE--sorry, I get defensive) have come in the past two weeks. It's possible that he's actually ascending to the GOAT mantle that 95% of NFL viewers and 'analysts' have predicted for him since he was drafted. Good for him. My theory, personally, is that the Titans and Jags both have abysmal defenses that could make even a mediocre quarterback look good. In other news, Charlie Whitehurst continues to be bad. Verdict: Right. But concerned.

Panthers (8) @ Ravens (15): Ravens, 38-10. New theory: the Panthers suck. Alternate theory: Everything I know about sports is wrong and players like Steve Smith can choose to have outrageously good games whenever they get angry enough. God, I hate sports 'analysis'. Verdict: Wrong.

Lions (7) @ Jets (21): Lions, 24-17. Golden Tate is the new Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is the new Dwayne Bowe. Three-year wonder. Pshh. Michael Jordan would have caught for at least 15 yards in that game. FACT: One time Calvin Johnson caught 78 balls for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns and didn't make the Pro Bowl. And it was actually kind of reasonable. #fluke Verdict: Right.

Buccaneers (31) @ Steelers (17): Bucs, 27-24. TO BE FAIR, if I had actually made picks, I would have picked the Bucs to win because I hate the Steelers. Verdict: Wrong.

Dolphins (26) @ Raiders (30): Dolphins, 38-14. Carr crashed. I should do this for a living. Verdict: Right.

Jaguars (32) @ Chargers (5): Chargers, 33-14. Bortles, on the other hand, looked pretty splendid on Sundizzle. Rivers looked splendider, and now has the highest passer rating in the NFL, topping the inevitable MVP choice Russell Wilson. (Aaron "Clownin" Rodgers also passed Wilson.) Stunningly, Bortles's 29 completions went to ten different receivers. I have no idea what the record is in this category but it can't be much higher than that. That kid's got a future. I am Nostradamus after all. Verdict: Right.

Falcons (14) @ Vikings (27): Vikings, 41-28. Bridgewater! Asiata! Jarius Wright, somehow! All these players had amazing games. Christian Ponder also contributed with 1 carry for 1 yard. Good job, good effort. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta sucked. Verdict: Wrong.

Eagles (9) @ 49ers (18): 49ers, 26-21. I watched this game. Foles looked downright terrible. San Francisco's run defense dominated. This game wasn't as close as it looked. If you take out a blocked punt return for TD, a pick 6, and a punt return TD, the game is 26-0. Which is closer to how it looked. Philly's offense completely stalled and Santa Clara shit on them. I said I didn't trust the Eagles, but I couldn't reasonably put the Niners above them. This is the problem with not actually making predictions. Verdict: Wrong.

Saints (19) @ Cowboys (12): Cowboys, 38-17. Holy shit, I got this one right??? Romo looked godly. That dude is underrated. Verdict: Right.

Patriots (13) @ Chiefs (22): Chiefs, 41-14. Wait, what? Fuck. I got a prediction for y'all. Belichick is trading Brady, this year. And he'll do it for less than a second-round pick. It's happening. This year. The Brady Era is over. I feel sick.

Final Tally:
5-8. Fuck.


NEXT WEEK! Time to make some real goddamn predictions. Bold's gonna win.

Vikings @ Packers. I don't think either of these teams is actually that good. But the Vikings' win switch (Bridge) is injured or something. I don't follow football that closely.

Bengals @ Patriots. Expect a big game from some random non-quarterback on Cincy's offense. I'm sorry, Tom. I'm so sorry. (Watch the whole thing so it feels like I linked more than one thing.)

Bears @ Panthers. Still working with the theory that Carolina sucks.

Browns @ Titans. Expect the Titans to bounce back after a humiliating loss against some troll-faced little monster.

Rams @ Eagles. The Eagles aren't that bad.

Falcons @ Giants. This luck gotta run out sometime... right?

Bucs @ Saints. That gotta be a freak win... right?

Texans @ Cowboys. Watt gotta FSU... right?

Bills @ Lions. The Bills gotta be actually sucky... right?

Ravens @ Colts. Luck gotta slow down (run out?) when he finally hits a decent defense... right?

Steelers @ Jags. Bortles gotta go ham on the Steelers' D... right?

Cards @ Broncos. The Cards gotta shock the world... right?

Chiefs @ 49ers. The Niners gotta be back for real... right? And the Chiefs gotta be fake....... right?

Jets @ Chargers. The Chargers gotta be really elite... right?

Seahawks @ Skins. The Hawks gotta still be the best team in the league... right?

I feel like I don't know anything about the NFL this season.

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