Passer rating is bullshit.
If you didn't know, passer rating is equally comprised of four parts: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and interception rate. Each of these stats makes up 1/4 of a player's total passer rating. The way a player's rating is calculated is that each of these numbers is toyed with (the actual math is available here) to give the player a value between 0 and 2.375 in each category. These numbers are totaled, and then the total is adjusted to give a maximum rating of 158.3 repeating, and a minimum rating of 0. Herein lies the reason why standard passer rating is bullshit.
I understand the draw of having the ability to throw for a "perfect game". It makes sense. It's a meaningful occurrence in most other sports, so why not football? I also understand why the creators of passer rating wanted to implement a floor. After all, how could anyone show their face after throwing for a negative passer rating? But by adding these arbitrary limitations, passer rating is deceiving its audience.
For reference, these caps are as follows: 77.5% completion rate, 12.5+ yards per attempt, an 11.875% touchdown rate, and a 0% interception rate. (The floors, for any interested parties, are 30% cmp%, 3 YPA, 0% TD%, and 9.5% int%.) Two obvious complaints arise: First, lots of players have outperformed the ceiling in any one of these stats. Some of them earned "perfect games," but some of them didn't, and had their PR punished by the arbitrary caps. (Indeed, there are a LOT of cases where players should have had a passer rating of 160+, but because of the caps on PR ended up well below 158.3.) And second, the 0% interception rate limitation means that a player who throws one interception, even if every other one of his throws is a 99 yard completion for a touchdown, even if he makes a thousand such throws, will never achieve a perfect passer rating. (For reference, with the limitations in place, said player (1000/1001, 99,000 yd, 1000 TD, 1 int) would have a passer rating of 157.9. Without them, his passer rating would be a much more reasonable 830.0. Hold your questions until the end.)
I didn't like the effect of the limitations. So obviously, I removed them.
(A few quick notes: All stats here have a minimum of 15 pass attempts. Some places use 10. These places are wrong. For instance, Wikipedia says that QBs have thrown "perfect games" on 61 occasions. Wikipedia is wrong. First of all, two of these players were playing prior to 1960, but since football didn't exist prior to 1960 (seriously, how many Super Bowls do the Browns have?), which I know because that's as far back as PFR's search function goes, those two are illegitimate. Second, four of the instances Wikipedia lists occurred in the playoffs, which everyone knows doesn't count. Would you count a perfect game in the preseason? By a third string QB? Against a fourth string defense? In garbage time down 31 with 4 minutes to play in the fourth? Didn't think so. It's BASICALLY the same principle, to the extent that neither the pre- nor the post-season is the regular season. Third, 18 of the games listed on Wikipedia had pass attempts under 15 (including two of the playoff games). That's some weak-ass shit. Who wants a perfect game on eleven attempts? That's like saying you're a lock-down pitcher because you threw two no-hit innings. That's like claiming to be a master chef because you successfully prepared bruschetta. That's like calling yourself 'Kobe' because you hit one fade-away jumper. Out of seven. With no one guarding you. From 11 feet. There have been 39 "perfect games" in NFL history, and that's final. Oh, and once I'm done with them, not a single one of them will have a passer rating of 158.3. Because they'll all be higher. Because passer rating is stupid.)
New Ceiling! New Floor! New Everything!
My process was simple: I just excised the part of the formula that involved min/maxing the numbers so they fit in the range of 0-2.375. Instead, I let them go as high or as low as they wanted. Here's what happened:
- A perfect game, and I mean a REALLY perfect game, consists of every pass being completed for 99 yards and a touchdown. It's literally impossible to do better than this in a standard NFL game. Such a performance could obviously never happen under any realistic circumstances, but if it did, it would reward its creator with a passer rating of 831.25. (Fun fact: Remember how the cap for the value of each individual statistic was set at 2.375? Well, in this perfect uncapped game, one of those numbers hits 20 (TD%) and one reaches 24 (Y/A), while the third tops out at 3.5 (cmp%). Int%, of course, stays at 2.375, since you can't get lower than 0%.)
- The trivial record for highest passer rating in a game belongs to Arthur Marshall and Josh Miller, both of whom went 1/1 for 81 yards and 1 TD, giving them each a rating of 756.25. The trivial record for pass attempts >=2 belongs to Gene Mingo, who went 2/2 for 2 TDs and 102 yards, giving him a rating of 631.25. (Don't worry, we'll get to nontrivial records in a bit.)
- The worst possible game comes from throwing an interception on every attempt. Such a performance would give a passer rating of -414.58333 (repeating). (FYI, a game in which every pass was a completion for -99 yards and (obviously) no TD would give a rating of -327.1.) And although no one has ever achieved a true perfect game of 831.25, hundreds upon hundreds of players have reached this floor, mostly going 0/1 for 1 int. A number of players have hit 0/2 for 2 ints.
- One time Brett Favre (on his 22nd-and-one-twelfth birthday, as a backup in Atlanta) went 0/4 for 0 yards (obvs) and 2 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of -206.25. He's going to be in the Hall of Fame really soon, and he holds most career passing records (not that that means much, or that he'll have them for long, and not that the HoF is necessarily indicative of greatness). This gets its own bullet point.
- If you're wondering, the minimum values that can be reached in each stat are -1.5 for cmp% (0%), -25.5 for YPA (-99), 0 for TD% (0%), and -22.625% for int% (100%). If a player could hit all these numbers at once his PR would be -827.1. But since it's impossible to have both a 0 cmp% and a negative YPA, and simultaneously it's impossible to have both a negative YPA and a minimized int% stat, the lowest you can get to is -414.6.
- A number of players who previously sat below 158.3 despite having exceeded the cap in one or more categories were bumped up above the 158.3 'threshold'. The most recent bumpee is Matt Ryan, whose 21/24, 3 TD, 0 int performance yesterday got him bumped from 155.9 capped to 166.3 uncapped. Gratz Matt.
- No player who had a "perfect game" (158.3) maintained that number. It's possible that some player who was lower was bumped up to precisely that point, but it's unlikely. In other words, the 158.3 threshold (which was already incredibly arbitrary) is entirely irrelevant to the new system. Just like it always should have been.
The Greatest Single-Game Performances in NFL History (since 1970, min 15 atts):
- Fran Tarkenton, 1970: 15/18, 280 yds, 5 TD, 0 int, 228.9 Uncapped PR.
- Ben Roethlisberger, 2007: 13/16, 209 yds, 5 TD, 0 int, 228.4 UPR.
- Steve Grogan, 1979: 13/18, 315 yds, 5 TD, 0 int, 227.7 UPR.
- Craig Morton, 1981: 17/18, 308 yds, 4 TD, 0 int, 226.2 UPR.
- Craig Morton, 1970: 13/17, 349 yds, 5 TD, 1 int, 224.9 UPR.
- Robert Griffin III, 2012: 14/15, 200 yds, 4 TD, 0 int, 224.3 UPR.
- Alex Smith, 2013: 17/20, 287 yds, 5 TD, 0 int, 216.0 UPR.
- James Harris, 1974: 12/15, 276 yds, 3 TD, 0 int, 212.1 UPR.
- Jay Schroeder, 1990: 10/15, 234 yds, 4 TD, 0 int, 211.5 UPR.
- Nick Foles, 2013: 22/28, 406 yds, 7 TD, 0 int, 211.3 UPR.
Weird list. Here are the best-ever performances by some of the NFL's all-time and current greats.
- Johnny Unitas*, 1967: 17/20, 370 yds, 4 TD, 0 int, 216.7 UPR.
- Tom Brady, 2007: 21/25, 354 yds, 6 TD, 0 int, 211.1 UPR.
- John Elway (!**), 1984: 16/19, 218 yds, 5 TD, 0 int, 207.8 UPR.
- Drew Brees, 2009: 18/23, 371 yds, 5 TD, 0 int, 207.0 UPR.
- Peyton Manning, 2007: 13/17, 249 yds, 4 TD, 0 int, 205.3 UPR.
- Steve Young, 1993: 17/23, 354 yds, 4 TD, 0 int, 185.8 UPR.
- Joe Montana, 1989: 16/19, 270 yds, 3 TD, 0 int, 184.1 UPR.
- Dan Marino, 1984: 21/28, 311 yds, 5 TD, 0 int, 170.4 UPR.
- Brett Favre, 1992: 15/19, 214 yds, 3 TD, 0 int, 167.4 UPR.
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- UPDATE! This just happened today! GRATZ AROD!!
- Aaron Rodgers, 2014: 19/22, 255 yds, 3 TD, 0 int, 167.8 UPR.
* Unitas technically shouldn't be on this list because I'm not using numbers pre-1970 (which is why he's not in the first list), but he gets an exception because he's Johnny Unitas. (I don't use numbers before 1970 because football didn't REALLY exist until 1970.)
** The reason I'm surprised here is because Elway sucked. No, really. He was a mediocre quarterback. (I'll write an article on this sometime. (Edit: I DID IT!)) And yet he has a game that's better than any game Peyton ever played. What?? (Then again, Craig "I Never Made The Pro Bowl" Morton also has two games better than every player on this second list, so maybe we shouldn't look too far into it.)
The Worst of the Worst:
Let me qualify this real quick by saying that it's harder to find really bad games than to find really good ones. I wouldn't be even remotely comfortable presenting a list and saying with any certainty that it is a comprehensive list of players below a certain UPR. (I can say that I am fairly confident about the above "best" UPR lists.) But in my research, this is the worst game I found with atts>=15:
Joe Namath, 1976: 4/15, 20 yds, 0 TD, 4 int, -81.25 UPR.
Now THAT is exceptional. A Hall-of-Fame quarterback, throwing pretty much the worst game you can possibly throw. Again, it's possible someone's lower, but I haven't found him. Here are the worst games from some more HoF passers, current greats, Mannings with girl names, and people named Mark:
- Warren Moon, 1986: 5/23, 68 yds, 0 TD, 4 int, -39.9 UPR.
- Terry Bradshaw, 1970: 3/20, 110 yds, 1 TD, 4 int, -29.2 UPR.
- Johnny Unitas, 1973: 6/17, 55 yds, 0 TD, 3 int, -28.6 UPR.
- Mark Sanchez, 2009***: 10/29, 119 yds, 0 TD, 5 int, -23.9 UPR.
- Dan Marino, 1999: 15/36, 178 yds, 0 TD, 5 int, -0.5 UPR.
- John Elway, 1983: 13/34, 143 yds, 0 TD, 4 int, 2.5 UPR.
- Tom Brady, 2003: 14/28, 123 yds, 0 TD, 4 int, 2.5 UPR.
- Elisha Manning, 2013: 18/31, 156 yds, 0 TD, 5 int, 4.2 UPR.
- SAD UPDATE: I don't want to talk about it:
- Peyton Manning, 2015: 5/20, 35 yds, 0 TD, 4 int, -53.1 UPR.
*** Sanchez is the odd one out. He's here because he's Sanchez. Also Elisha is the odd one out. He's here because I think it's funny that he once had a 4.2 UPR.
If I didn't include someone, it's because either he never had a game that bad (e.g.
**** I can't resist. Aikman once threw for 7/21, 54 yds, 0 TD, 3 int, and a UPR of -18.9.
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