I call a lot of players overrated. Historically, the list includes John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Marino, Gale Sayers, Don Hutson, Lynn Swann, Johnny Unitas, and Brett Favre. Among active players, some of the most overrated are Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, and Andrew Luck. Honorable mentions go to Andrew Luck, Luke Kuechly, Patrick Peterson, Joe Haden, Colin Kaepernick, Aldon Smith, Robert Mathis, Jimmy Graham, Joe Thomas, and Andrew Luck.
Recently, I began to wonder if I was being too negative in my approach to rating players. I decided that I should write this article, in which I focus on the really underrated players in the NFL, the guys who I think are doing a terrific job and could use some more recognition. These are their stories.
JJ Watt. Yes. He's underrated. He's suffering from LeBron Syndrome, where a player can be the best at his position, and indeed the best in the game, and even be recognized as such, and still not receive enough credit for what he does. LeBron, for his part, is probably the best player in the history of the NBA, but is considered only top 10 or so. Watt [scroll down to the DPOY blurb] is the best player (on either side of the ball) currently in the NFL, by a wide margin, but he's considered one of the best defensive players in the league, or sometimes even just the best 3-4 DE in the NFL. That's like saying LeBron is one of the best small forwards on the Cavaliers. Or like saying the sun is pretty big, or Richard Feynman was a little bright. [Or "the ocean is partly composed of water," or "Google has achieved some degree of success," or "the Seahawks were marginally better than the Broncos in SBXVIII," or "this is a decent sports blog."] It's technically true, but it MASSIVELY understates the facts of the matter.
Lavonte David. Still not a Pro Bowler, still underrated. David is probably the best linebacker currently playing in the NFL (with the possible exception of this next guy), but for some reason other names get included in the conversation. Names like Luke and Kuechly.
Von Miller. He's had some issues. He hasn't played as much as he should have. But whenever he so much as touches the field, Miller dominates. I think. Is he even playing this year? Is he doing well?
Bobby Wagner. The third-best linebacker in the NFL who's not on the 49ers.
Vontaze Burfict. The fourth-best linebacker in the NFL who's not on the 49ers.
Evan Mathis. He's getting recognized more. He's still underrated. Mathis is one of the best interior linemen to ever play, no joke. If/when I make an All-Millennium team (best since '00), Mathis will probably be a starting guard. Wait. Now I want to do that.
Kam Chancellor. Kam's basically Brian Dawkins. He might be the second-best safety in the league (to Earl Thomas). He might be the best. All he does is BLOW SHIT UP.
Robert Griffin III. Okay, so he's been injured forever. But Gree's rookie season was one of the best rookie seasons at any position, ever. He was very efficient passing the ball and exceptionally effective running it.
Russell Wilson. Speaking of underrated quarterbacks who were drafted in 2012, Wilson is an elite QB in the league, right now, and he's widely considered borderline top-10. He's straight-up better than every QB in the league not named Peyton, Drewb, Aaron, or Philip. He might be better than a few of them. I have no idea where his ceiling is (it's at least Steve Young), but I know where he is right now, and it's in the fucking clouds.
Richard Sherman. Y'all do realize that Sherman was the least targeted CB in the league last year, and he still caught the most interceptions, right? He dominates virtually every other CB in the league across the board. He's the best cornerback we've seen since '09 Revis, and yet stupid fans include other corners in the debate for top dog.
Philip Rivers. He's finally starting to get some of the respect he deserves, and yet most people don't seem to realize just how good he's been over his career. See below.
Tony Romo. Romo might be the most underrated player of all time. On the career charts, he's 5th in passer rating (Rivers is t-3rd); t-9th in YPA (Rivers is t-6th) [the players rank t-5 and t-3 among modern-era players; YPA is just biased toward earlier QBs]; 4th in ANY/A (Rivers is 3rd); 6th in cmp% (Rivers is 7th); [modern] t-4 (for both) in TD%; and a relatively unimportant t-26 and t-11 in int% which I'm only bringing up for a reason that will become clear in a minute. Basically, Rivers and Romo are two of the most efficient quarterbacks of all time and should be shoo-ins for Canton. It's just that neither of them are currently on pace to make it.
[Russell Wilson, as it happens, doesn't qualify for those leaderboards because he's too young. If he DID qualify--and he will soon--he'd rank 2nd in PR, t-2 [modern] in YPA, 3rd in ANY/A, 8th in cmp%, t-4 in int%, and a modern #1 outright in TD%. That's right: Wilson has thrown for touchdowns more frequently than any quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger.]
Russell Wilson is so great. I just love him.
Friday, October 10, 2014
If They Retired Today...
Which players in the NFL are "locks" for the Hall of Fame? These are the players, arranged by position, who I think would make the HOF if they retired tomorrow. Note that not all of these players are first-ballot HOFers. (In fact, only two guessable quarterbacks and possibly a corner or two merit that honor.) These are just the guys I think have already assembled a Canton-worthy career. Note also that this can theoretically change in the future; a sufficiently terrible personal incident (cough cough) or a severe performance drop-off can be enough to cost someone a spot (although in theory the latter shouldn't be). I'll talk about a few notable runners-up at each position if applicable.
Quarterbacks:
- Peyton Manning. Manning has already put together the greatest career of anyone in NFL history. He's been a dead lock for the past decade. Five MVPs, 7 FTAPs, and a trajectory that puts him on pace to break basically every good passing volume record.
- Tom Brady. He's been a dead lock for the past decade, too. If his three Super Bowl wins weren't enough (they are), his individual dominance since '07 surely is. Brady in '07 and Manning in '04 are probably the two best passing seasons ever, and if not they share the top four with Young in '94 and Marino in '84. If this pattern keeps up, expect the fifth season to be Wilson in '14. It's hannenin.
- Drew Brees. This is the one that might come as a little bit of a surprise, although it shouldn't. Breesus has obliterated records in his career, including the seasonal cmp% record (twice in three years) and the seasonal yardage record (in 2011). He still holds the two highest marks on the cmp% leaderboard, as well as the #s 2, 4, 5, and 7 spots on the yardage board. He's 4th on the career yardage chart, 4th in TDs, 7th in PR, and 7th in ANY/A. QB is an incredibly competitive position nowadays, but Brees is easily going to make it into the Hall.
Notable exclusions:
- Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has one of the best career trajectories in NFL history. He's been among the most efficient QBs in the league since he took over the starting job from Brett Favre in 2008. And if it were up to me, I'd put Rodgers in the Hall tomorrow. But I think the selection committee would view things differently. He only has three Pro Bowl selections somehow, and one FTAP (to go with his MVP). Maybe the MVP is enough to sneak him in, but I'm guessing it's not.
- Philip Rivers. This one is notable because I think Rivers should make the Hall. He's had an exceptional career thus far and is currently in the midst of his best season yet. But he hasn't been recognized by the press as being one of the "big four" QBs in the current league, and his inconsistency in 2011 and '12 doesn't help.
- Tony Romo. Same story. Romo is probably the most underrated quarterback of all time. Seriously. He's 5th in career PR (6th when Russell Wilson gets counted) and 4th in career ANY/A (5th when Wilson gets counted). The QBs he beats in both categories include Brady, Montana, Marino, and Brees. The only QBs he loses to in both are... (ready?)... Rodgers, Manning, and Wilson. BOOM.
Running Backs:
- None.
Notable exclusions:
- Adrian Peterson. If he never beat his kid (warning: depressing as fuck), we could talk about his odds. (Spoilers: Good but not a lock.) But he did, so he's never going to make the Hall of Fame. Hopefully. He BETTER not. I may not agree with the exclusion of Pete Rose from Cooperstown, but I sure as hell agree with keeping AD (it feels wrong to use that nickname now) out of Canton.
Wide Receivers:
- None.
Notable exclusions:
- Calvin Johnson. Megatron has started his career as well as anyone not named Rice. Or Moss. Or possibly Harrison. Or Torry Holt. The point is, he's looking like in a few years he will be a lock at receiver. But if he retired right now, he's immediately competing with the likes of Terrell Owens, Harrison, Moss, Isaac Bruce, Holt, and Tim Brown, shortly to be joined by Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and eventually (depending on how long it takes for the guys in front of him to get in) Brandon Marshall and the like. That's a hell of a logjam. I just don't know if his few seasons of dominance are enough to get him in. They might be. But I'm going to err on the side of conservatism.
Tight Ends:
- Antonio Gates. Gates is a monster. He's slowed down recently but he's still one of the best TEs ever and easily a lock.
- Jason Witten. Witten is the most complete TE ever not named Gronk. His career qualifies him and it's still going.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Offensive Tackle:
- Joe Thomas. Here we come to the really hard part of the assessment, where we have to determine what to do with guys who were dominant during their careers (4+ FTAP selections), but only played 6-8 years. My inclination, at least in the case of Thomas, is to leave him out, because I don't think he's that good. (I was spoiled by watching Walter Jones But there's not a whole lot of precedent for a player to earn 4 FTAPs and not make the Hall.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Offensive Guard:
- Jahri Evans. Here's another example of what I was talking about with Thomas. Four absolutely dominant years and a few more good ones. Hard to shut him out of the Hall.
Notable exclusions:
- Logan Mankins. He had a longer career, but a lower peak. I can't put every good guard who played on a great line in Canton.
- Evan Mathis. I also can't put every transcendentally great guard who played almost entirely under the radar into Canton. I mean, I would. Mathis should make the Hall. He's been the best offensive lineman in the league for several years now. He just won't.
Center:
None.
Notable exclusions:
None. Center is bad right now.
Defensive Tackle:
- Kevin Williams. One of the most dominant DTs ever from '04-'09. He absolutely tore shit up with Pat Williams back in the day. Five FTAPs guarantee his place in Canton.
Notable exclusions:
- Haloti Ngata. He's close, but he's not there.
Defensive End:
- Julius Peppers. Peppers was a beast for nearly a decade before slowing down recently. He's another one of those guys where there's just no question.
- Jared Allen. Allen, despite being a white person playing defensive end (which is the exception), has shown himself to be one of the most dominant pass-rushers in league history. Again, this one is pretty cut-and-dry already.
Notable exclusions:
- Justin Smith. He probably deserves it, and he was one of the most dominant 34DE's we'd seen before Watt. But then we saw Watt and Smith just wasn't that impressive anymore.
- John Abraham. His career was too stretched-out. He vacillated between being really good, good, and pretty bad, which isn't a recipe for a HOF career.
- Dwight Freeney. Dwight's REALLY close. He's a three-time FTAP, but beyond those years he just hasn't been that great.
Inside Linebacker:
- Patrick Willis. Willis is one of the guys with a crazy-good career trajectory. Seven Pro Bowls and five FTAPs in his seven-(full)-year career to date.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Outside Linebacker:
- DeMarcus Ware. Freak beast monster.
Notable exclusions:
- Lance Briggs. Was never quite good enough.
- Terrell Suggs. I didn't know who he was before 2011.
- James Harrison. Incredibly dominant for two non-consecutive years, but not that great for the rest.
Cornerback:
- Champ Bailey. Champ was the first really great corner I ever watched. He's also put together one of the all-time great careers at the position. Why am I even writing this? Champ's a lock.
- Charles Woodson. So is Woody.
Notable exclusions:
- Darrelle Revis. Revis is a beast. His '09 season might be the best season by a corner in history. But he just hasn't played long enough or been dominant consistently enough. He barely misses out.
Safety:
- Troy Polamalu. Same deal as Harrison, only better. If we remember one defender from those Steelers teams, it'll be Polamalu. That'll be enough to get him in.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Kicker/Punter:
- Shane Lechler. He has a case. I think Ray Guy might have been a one-time deal, but if anyone can get in, it's Lechler. Among pure punters, he pretty much has the greatest career in history. In fact, he's almost certainly better than Guy was. Guy's in Canton because of what he did for the position and because he has this mystique associated with his abilities, sort of like a poor man's Bo Jackson or Wilt Chamberlain. The truth is that he was a great punter, probably the best of his era, but he wasn't what people sometimes make him out to be. Lechler is more "real-life": He's great, undoubtedly--those six FTAP selections (twice as many as Guy's 3) aren't decorative--but you know who he is. You know what you're getting from Lechler. He lacks the magic of Guy, which arises largely from the fact that most football fans, and many members of the media for that matter, aren't old enough to have seen Prime Guy, and so they (we) make their (our) judgements based on the stories and what little footage we can dig up. Lechler is better than Guy. He just doesn't have the narrative behind him. But I have to believe that the committee will recognize how great Lechler has been and put him in eventually.
Notable exclusions:
None. (Lechler was SO close to being in this category. I moved him up just before publishing.)
Kick Returner/Punt Returner:
- Devin Hester. This one is risky, because ST guys don't usually make it to Canton. But Ray Guy has broken that ground, and now the way is open for the greatest return man in the history of the game (by far) to take the kickoff to the house. In Canton. Hester exploded onto the scene in 2006 and has pretty much demolished every KR/PR record since then, without ever really looking like he had to try.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Quarterbacks:
- Peyton Manning. Manning has already put together the greatest career of anyone in NFL history. He's been a dead lock for the past decade. Five MVPs, 7 FTAPs, and a trajectory that puts him on pace to break basically every good passing volume record.
- Tom Brady. He's been a dead lock for the past decade, too. If his three Super Bowl wins weren't enough (they are), his individual dominance since '07 surely is. Brady in '07 and Manning in '04 are probably the two best passing seasons ever, and if not they share the top four with Young in '94 and Marino in '84. If this pattern keeps up, expect the fifth season to be Wilson in '14. It's hannenin.
- Drew Brees. This is the one that might come as a little bit of a surprise, although it shouldn't. Breesus has obliterated records in his career, including the seasonal cmp% record (twice in three years) and the seasonal yardage record (in 2011). He still holds the two highest marks on the cmp% leaderboard, as well as the #s 2, 4, 5, and 7 spots on the yardage board. He's 4th on the career yardage chart, 4th in TDs, 7th in PR, and 7th in ANY/A. QB is an incredibly competitive position nowadays, but Brees is easily going to make it into the Hall.
Notable exclusions:
- Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has one of the best career trajectories in NFL history. He's been among the most efficient QBs in the league since he took over the starting job from Brett Favre in 2008. And if it were up to me, I'd put Rodgers in the Hall tomorrow. But I think the selection committee would view things differently. He only has three Pro Bowl selections somehow, and one FTAP (to go with his MVP). Maybe the MVP is enough to sneak him in, but I'm guessing it's not.
- Philip Rivers. This one is notable because I think Rivers should make the Hall. He's had an exceptional career thus far and is currently in the midst of his best season yet. But he hasn't been recognized by the press as being one of the "big four" QBs in the current league, and his inconsistency in 2011 and '12 doesn't help.
- Tony Romo. Same story. Romo is probably the most underrated quarterback of all time. Seriously. He's 5th in career PR (6th when Russell Wilson gets counted) and 4th in career ANY/A (5th when Wilson gets counted). The QBs he beats in both categories include Brady, Montana, Marino, and Brees. The only QBs he loses to in both are... (ready?)... Rodgers, Manning, and Wilson. BOOM.
Running Backs:
- None.
Notable exclusions:
- Adrian Peterson. If he never beat his kid (warning: depressing as fuck), we could talk about his odds. (Spoilers: Good but not a lock.) But he did, so he's never going to make the Hall of Fame. Hopefully. He BETTER not. I may not agree with the exclusion of Pete Rose from Cooperstown, but I sure as hell agree with keeping AD (it feels wrong to use that nickname now) out of Canton.
Wide Receivers:
- None.
Notable exclusions:
- Calvin Johnson. Megatron has started his career as well as anyone not named Rice. Or Moss. Or possibly Harrison. Or Torry Holt. The point is, he's looking like in a few years he will be a lock at receiver. But if he retired right now, he's immediately competing with the likes of Terrell Owens, Harrison, Moss, Isaac Bruce, Holt, and Tim Brown, shortly to be joined by Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and eventually (depending on how long it takes for the guys in front of him to get in) Brandon Marshall and the like. That's a hell of a logjam. I just don't know if his few seasons of dominance are enough to get him in. They might be. But I'm going to err on the side of conservatism.
Tight Ends:
- Antonio Gates. Gates is a monster. He's slowed down recently but he's still one of the best TEs ever and easily a lock.
- Jason Witten. Witten is the most complete TE ever not named Gronk. His career qualifies him and it's still going.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Offensive Tackle:
- Joe Thomas. Here we come to the really hard part of the assessment, where we have to determine what to do with guys who were dominant during their careers (4+ FTAP selections), but only played 6-8 years. My inclination, at least in the case of Thomas, is to leave him out, because I don't think he's that good. (I was spoiled by watching Walter Jones But there's not a whole lot of precedent for a player to earn 4 FTAPs and not make the Hall.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Offensive Guard:
- Jahri Evans. Here's another example of what I was talking about with Thomas. Four absolutely dominant years and a few more good ones. Hard to shut him out of the Hall.
Notable exclusions:
- Logan Mankins. He had a longer career, but a lower peak. I can't put every good guard who played on a great line in Canton.
- Evan Mathis. I also can't put every transcendentally great guard who played almost entirely under the radar into Canton. I mean, I would. Mathis should make the Hall. He's been the best offensive lineman in the league for several years now. He just won't.
Center:
None.
Notable exclusions:
None. Center is bad right now.
Defensive Tackle:
- Kevin Williams. One of the most dominant DTs ever from '04-'09. He absolutely tore shit up with Pat Williams back in the day. Five FTAPs guarantee his place in Canton.
Notable exclusions:
- Haloti Ngata. He's close, but he's not there.
Defensive End:
- Julius Peppers. Peppers was a beast for nearly a decade before slowing down recently. He's another one of those guys where there's just no question.
- Jared Allen. Allen, despite being a white person playing defensive end (which is the exception), has shown himself to be one of the most dominant pass-rushers in league history. Again, this one is pretty cut-and-dry already.
Notable exclusions:
- Justin Smith. He probably deserves it, and he was one of the most dominant 34DE's we'd seen before Watt. But then we saw Watt and Smith just wasn't that impressive anymore.
- John Abraham. His career was too stretched-out. He vacillated between being really good, good, and pretty bad, which isn't a recipe for a HOF career.
- Dwight Freeney. Dwight's REALLY close. He's a three-time FTAP, but beyond those years he just hasn't been that great.
Inside Linebacker:
- Patrick Willis. Willis is one of the guys with a crazy-good career trajectory. Seven Pro Bowls and five FTAPs in his seven-(full)-year career to date.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Outside Linebacker:
- DeMarcus Ware. Freak beast monster.
Notable exclusions:
- Lance Briggs. Was never quite good enough.
- Terrell Suggs. I didn't know who he was before 2011.
- James Harrison. Incredibly dominant for two non-consecutive years, but not that great for the rest.
Cornerback:
- Champ Bailey. Champ was the first really great corner I ever watched. He's also put together one of the all-time great careers at the position. Why am I even writing this? Champ's a lock.
- Charles Woodson. So is Woody.
Notable exclusions:
- Darrelle Revis. Revis is a beast. His '09 season might be the best season by a corner in history. But he just hasn't played long enough or been dominant consistently enough. He barely misses out.
Safety:
- Troy Polamalu. Same deal as Harrison, only better. If we remember one defender from those Steelers teams, it'll be Polamalu. That'll be enough to get him in.
Notable exclusions:
None.
Kicker/Punter:
- Shane Lechler. He has a case. I think Ray Guy might have been a one-time deal, but if anyone can get in, it's Lechler. Among pure punters, he pretty much has the greatest career in history. In fact, he's almost certainly better than Guy was. Guy's in Canton because of what he did for the position and because he has this mystique associated with his abilities, sort of like a poor man's Bo Jackson or Wilt Chamberlain. The truth is that he was a great punter, probably the best of his era, but he wasn't what people sometimes make him out to be. Lechler is more "real-life": He's great, undoubtedly--those six FTAP selections (twice as many as Guy's 3) aren't decorative--but you know who he is. You know what you're getting from Lechler. He lacks the magic of Guy, which arises largely from the fact that most football fans, and many members of the media for that matter, aren't old enough to have seen Prime Guy, and so they (we) make their (our) judgements based on the stories and what little footage we can dig up. Lechler is better than Guy. He just doesn't have the narrative behind him. But I have to believe that the committee will recognize how great Lechler has been and put him in eventually.
Notable exclusions:
None. (Lechler was SO close to being in this category. I moved him up just before publishing.)
Kick Returner/Punt Returner:
- Devin Hester. This one is risky, because ST guys don't usually make it to Canton. But Ray Guy has broken that ground, and now the way is open for the greatest return man in the history of the game (by far) to take the kickoff to the house. In Canton. Hester exploded onto the scene in 2006 and has pretty much demolished every KR/PR record since then, without ever really looking like he had to try.
Notable exclusions:
None.
NFL Week 6 Predictions
Vs. the spread. LEGGO.
Colts @ Texans. Line: Ind -3. Pick: Colts.
I realize this game already happened. I made my pick as soon as Houston broke my heart for the third and last time. I just didn't finish writing the article until today.
Jaguars @ Titans. Line: Ten -5. Pick: Titans.
Sorry Jags. Apparently the Titans are underrated, and you guys still suck. PROVE ME WRONG BORTLES. I BELIEVE IN YOUUUUU.
Ravens @ Buccaneers. Line: Bal -3.5. Pick: Ravens.
Sorry Bucs. You're not underrated. You're just bad.
Broncos @ Jets. Line: Den -9.5. Pick: Broncos.
Yeah, the Jets are this bad. Sorry football god.
Lions @ Vikings. Line: Min -1.5. Pick: Lions.
I have no idea what to expect from the Vikings. Literally none. They could put up 50 points on the board and absolutely blow out the Lions. Or they could turn the ball over 7 times and lose by 30. Either seems plausible to me. Bridgewater should be back for this game, which definitely helps Minny's chances (and is why they're favored even though Detroit's been the better team so far), but he's going to have a harder time against Detroit's excellent defense (2nd in scoring so far this year) than against Atlanta's abysmal one (29th). Lions pull this one out. Who knows, it may even be close.
Panthers @ Bengals. Line: Cin -6.5. Pick: Panthers.
This is exactly what this game is going to look like. Anyway. This feels like a trap game to me. I don't want to pick either side. It's a trap game for both sides. The Panthers suck, so they should get blown out, but the Bengals didn't look convincing against New England (#understatement), and now that I look at their games played, their only multi-score wins are against the presumably mediocre Titans and the decidedly mediocre Falcons. I'm predicting a close game either way, which means this is the right call.
Steelers @ Browns. Line: Cle -1. Pick: Steelers.
Fuck. I hate picking the Steelers almost as much as I hate Pink Floyd. But I will never, ever, ever trust Cleveland to win.
Packers @ Dolphins. Line: GB -3. Pick: Packers.
Aaron Rodgers turned on God Mode. His last two games are just outrageous. Meanwhile Miami sucks harder than Pink Floyd. IT'S LIKE NOVOCAINE FOR YOUR BRAIN. (Which I guess is the idea, but still.) God, I fucking hate Pink Floyd. How is the line for this game only -3???
Chargers @ Raiders. Line: SD -7.5. Pick: Chargers.
The Chargers might be the second-best team in the league, and they're not lower than third. The Raiders are bottom-three. I'd pick SD -14, but I don't have to.
Bears @ Falcons. Line: Atl -3. Pick: Bears.
I still believe.
Redskins @ Cardinals. Line: Ari -3.5. Pick: Cards.
God. I want to pick the Redskins. But I just can't.
Giants @ Eagles. Line: Phi -2.5. Pick: Eagles.
I don't believe in either one of these teams. I don't want to pick either one of these teams. But what's the alternative? I don't believe in the Eagles less.
Patriots @ Bills. Line: NE -3. Pick: Patriots.
I guess. Maybe Brady's back?
Cowboys @ Seahawks. Line: Sea -9. Pick: Seahawks.
I like the Cowboys this year. I think they keep it close. And by that I mean I considered picking Dallas so I win if Seattle wins by 7. FOR A SECOND. Fuck that. Seahawks by 20, baby.
Niners @ Rams. Line: SF -3.5. Pick: Niners.
The Rams suck. So do the Farty-Whiners (couldn't resist), but they suck less. A lot less.
Go Hawks.
Colts @ Texans. Line: Ind -3. Pick: Colts.
I realize this game already happened. I made my pick as soon as Houston broke my heart for the third and last time. I just didn't finish writing the article until today.
Jaguars @ Titans. Line: Ten -5. Pick: Titans.
Sorry Jags. Apparently the Titans are underrated, and you guys still suck. PROVE ME WRONG BORTLES. I BELIEVE IN YOUUUUU.
Ravens @ Buccaneers. Line: Bal -3.5. Pick: Ravens.
Sorry Bucs. You're not underrated. You're just bad.
Broncos @ Jets. Line: Den -9.5. Pick: Broncos.
Yeah, the Jets are this bad. Sorry football god.
Lions @ Vikings. Line: Min -1.5. Pick: Lions.
I have no idea what to expect from the Vikings. Literally none. They could put up 50 points on the board and absolutely blow out the Lions. Or they could turn the ball over 7 times and lose by 30. Either seems plausible to me. Bridgewater should be back for this game, which definitely helps Minny's chances (and is why they're favored even though Detroit's been the better team so far), but he's going to have a harder time against Detroit's excellent defense (2nd in scoring so far this year) than against Atlanta's abysmal one (29th). Lions pull this one out. Who knows, it may even be close.
Panthers @ Bengals. Line: Cin -6.5. Pick: Panthers.
This is exactly what this game is going to look like. Anyway. This feels like a trap game to me. I don't want to pick either side. It's a trap game for both sides. The Panthers suck, so they should get blown out, but the Bengals didn't look convincing against New England (#understatement), and now that I look at their games played, their only multi-score wins are against the presumably mediocre Titans and the decidedly mediocre Falcons. I'm predicting a close game either way, which means this is the right call.
Steelers @ Browns. Line: Cle -1. Pick: Steelers.
Fuck. I hate picking the Steelers almost as much as I hate Pink Floyd. But I will never, ever, ever trust Cleveland to win.
Packers @ Dolphins. Line: GB -3. Pick: Packers.
Aaron Rodgers turned on God Mode. His last two games are just outrageous. Meanwhile Miami sucks harder than Pink Floyd. IT'S LIKE NOVOCAINE FOR YOUR BRAIN. (Which I guess is the idea, but still.) God, I fucking hate Pink Floyd. How is the line for this game only -3???
Chargers @ Raiders. Line: SD -7.5. Pick: Chargers.
The Chargers might be the second-best team in the league, and they're not lower than third. The Raiders are bottom-three. I'd pick SD -14, but I don't have to.
Bears @ Falcons. Line: Atl -3. Pick: Bears.
I still believe.
Redskins @ Cardinals. Line: Ari -3.5. Pick: Cards.
God. I want to pick the Redskins. But I just can't.
Giants @ Eagles. Line: Phi -2.5. Pick: Eagles.
I don't believe in either one of these teams. I don't want to pick either one of these teams. But what's the alternative? I don't believe in the Eagles less.
Patriots @ Bills. Line: NE -3. Pick: Patriots.
I guess. Maybe Brady's back?
Cowboys @ Seahawks. Line: Sea -9. Pick: Seahawks.
I like the Cowboys this year. I think they keep it close. And by that I mean I considered picking Dallas so I win if Seattle wins by 7. FOR A SECOND. Fuck that. Seahawks by 20, baby.
Niners @ Rams. Line: SF -3.5. Pick: Niners.
The Rams suck. So do the Farty-Whiners (couldn't resist), but they suck less. A lot less.
Go Hawks.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
NFL 2014 Predictions Update
We are now officially 31.25% (5/16, or 1.25/4) of the way through the season, which makes now the obvious time to discuss my 2014 predictions. (I'm not actually joking. I mean, I am, but this is a decent time to do it. We can do it after 5, 10, and 15 games. This makes sense. I'm going to keep telling myself that. Mostly because I forgot that I made a prediction post until right now.) Leggo.
AFCN: Bengals. So far so good.
AFCS: Texans. Surprisingly, this pick is still on pace to be accurate. Bet you didn't think Houston was still on top of the division. (Ok, apparently they're second to the Colts in the playoff standings, but...........)
AFCW: Broncos. Technically they're second in the division to the Chargers. But we all know they'll end up on top.
AFCE: Patriots. They're TIED for the top of their division. And the team they're tied with is the Bills, who... are the Bills. The same Bills who haven't had a winning season since Bush's first term. The same Bills who haven't won ten games (in a season) this MILLENIUM. Sorry, Bills fans. Also, the Patriots looked great this week, against the fucking Bengals no less, so I'm going to assume they're back to '07 form. Please.
AFC Wild Cards: Chargers and Ravens. I fucking nailed these picks. The Chargers are dominating this season so far, and the Ravens are tied for the wild card spot with the Pats/Bills, the Steelers, the Texans/Colts, and just behind Denver. If the playoffs started tomorrow (they don't), Baltimore ends up at 7th seed, and New England at 9th. The other four of my picks make the playoffs.
NFCN: Packers. 3-2, tied for the div lead. Rodgers is playing like a god so we'll see if that continues.
NFCS: Falcons. Ok, somehow Carolina is still on top of this division, which is utter bullshit. But Atlanta's second, and I think they're clearly the best team in the division.
NFCW: Seahawks. Again... technically the Seahawks are second to the Cards. But not really.
NFCE: Redskins. Okay, so technically the Skins are 1-4 and are not only last place in the division, but are tied for the worst record in the NFC. But, like... they shouldn't be. I don't know. I might have misfired on this one.
NFC Wild Cards: Saints and Niners. Both these teams look decent. Right now, there are technically five teams in the NFC playoffs that I didn't predict to be there, and my teams are technically seeds 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, and 16... but.......
AWARDS!
MVP: Russell Wilson. Still like this pick. Wilson is a god. He can do shit with the football that's positively Kitnaesque. Quick statistical update: Remember how Young in '94 put up 70.3% cmp, 3969 yds, 35 TDs at 7.6% TD%, 10 ints at 2.2% int%, 8.6 YPA, 112.8 rtg, 8.24 ANY/A? Well, through five games Wilson is on pace for 70.3% cmp, 3408 yds, 32 TDs at 7.2% TD%, 4 ints at 0.9% int%, 7.68 YPA, 112.9 rtg, and 7.52 ANY/A. Those stats are SPOOKY close. (Obviously Young has an advantage in some categories, but still, it's close between Wilson and one of the five best passing seasons ever, which means a LOT.)
OPOY: Peyton Manning. Seems like Rivers now, but Manning is still a safe bet.
DPOY: JJ Watt. Yes. Edit: Oops, I forgot that this paragraph is the entire reason I wanted to write this post:
Here's how good JJ Watt is: You might think of there being "good" defensive players, like Luke Kuechly and Joe Haden; and "bad" defensive players, like, I don't know, Patrick Chung. The truth, as always, is more complicated. See, it's like this: A cantaloupe is big, and a golf ball is small. Kuechly and Haden are cantaloupes, and Patrick Chung is a golf ball. But Patrick Chung is not the worst defensive player in the NFL; there are also HUNDREDS of grains of sand, many with only a fraction of the ability of Mr. Chung. Meanwhile, on the other side, beyond the cantaloupes, there are also houses, which are much bigger than cantaloupes (aren't you glad you're reading this blog), and, in this metaphor, represent the truly excellent defensive seasons in NFL history. Think '09 Revis, or '08 Haynesworth (that happened), or '13 Robert Quinn. (Notice here that Kuechly is a cantaloupe, and Quinn is a house. Explain to me how the DPOY voting happened. Or wait a second, because it's about to get worse.) But the world doesn't consist of just houses. It also consists of a big-ass fucking planet. And that planet is JJ Watt. He's so big, filled with rocks and magma and athleticism and minerals and a giant ball of iron and TALENT and another giant ball of iron (get it?), that he's simply incomparable to other defensive players. And that's why Houston rocks.
OROY: Blake Bortles. No comment.
DROY: Jadeveon Clowney. Still hate this pick.
COY: Pete Carroll. I have no idea how they choose who they give this award to. It's the worst award.
CBPOY: Percy Harvin. Still seems safe.
EOY: John Schneider. Still the only non-Elway exec I know.
AFCN: Bengals. So far so good.
AFCS: Texans. Surprisingly, this pick is still on pace to be accurate. Bet you didn't think Houston was still on top of the division. (Ok, apparently they're second to the Colts in the playoff standings, but...........)
AFCW: Broncos. Technically they're second in the division to the Chargers. But we all know they'll end up on top.
AFCE: Patriots. They're TIED for the top of their division. And the team they're tied with is the Bills, who... are the Bills. The same Bills who haven't had a winning season since Bush's first term. The same Bills who haven't won ten games (in a season) this MILLENIUM. Sorry, Bills fans. Also, the Patriots looked great this week, against the fucking Bengals no less, so I'm going to assume they're back to '07 form. Please.
AFC Wild Cards: Chargers and Ravens. I fucking nailed these picks. The Chargers are dominating this season so far, and the Ravens are tied for the wild card spot with the Pats/Bills, the Steelers, the Texans/Colts, and just behind Denver. If the playoffs started tomorrow (they don't), Baltimore ends up at 7th seed, and New England at 9th. The other four of my picks make the playoffs.
NFCN: Packers. 3-2, tied for the div lead. Rodgers is playing like a god so we'll see if that continues.
NFCS: Falcons. Ok, somehow Carolina is still on top of this division, which is utter bullshit. But Atlanta's second, and I think they're clearly the best team in the division.
NFCW: Seahawks. Again... technically the Seahawks are second to the Cards. But not really.
NFCE: Redskins. Okay, so technically the Skins are 1-4 and are not only last place in the division, but are tied for the worst record in the NFC. But, like... they shouldn't be. I don't know. I might have misfired on this one.
NFC Wild Cards: Saints and Niners. Both these teams look decent. Right now, there are technically five teams in the NFC playoffs that I didn't predict to be there, and my teams are technically seeds 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, and 16... but.......
AWARDS!
MVP: Russell Wilson. Still like this pick. Wilson is a god. He can do shit with the football that's positively Kitnaesque. Quick statistical update: Remember how Young in '94 put up 70.3% cmp, 3969 yds, 35 TDs at 7.6% TD%, 10 ints at 2.2% int%, 8.6 YPA, 112.8 rtg, 8.24 ANY/A? Well, through five games Wilson is on pace for 70.3% cmp, 3408 yds, 32 TDs at 7.2% TD%, 4 ints at 0.9% int%, 7.68 YPA, 112.9 rtg, and 7.52 ANY/A. Those stats are SPOOKY close. (Obviously Young has an advantage in some categories, but still, it's close between Wilson and one of the five best passing seasons ever, which means a LOT.)
OPOY: Peyton Manning. Seems like Rivers now, but Manning is still a safe bet.
DPOY: JJ Watt. Yes. Edit: Oops, I forgot that this paragraph is the entire reason I wanted to write this post:
Here's how good JJ Watt is: You might think of there being "good" defensive players, like Luke Kuechly and Joe Haden; and "bad" defensive players, like, I don't know, Patrick Chung. The truth, as always, is more complicated. See, it's like this: A cantaloupe is big, and a golf ball is small. Kuechly and Haden are cantaloupes, and Patrick Chung is a golf ball. But Patrick Chung is not the worst defensive player in the NFL; there are also HUNDREDS of grains of sand, many with only a fraction of the ability of Mr. Chung. Meanwhile, on the other side, beyond the cantaloupes, there are also houses, which are much bigger than cantaloupes (aren't you glad you're reading this blog), and, in this metaphor, represent the truly excellent defensive seasons in NFL history. Think '09 Revis, or '08 Haynesworth (that happened), or '13 Robert Quinn. (Notice here that Kuechly is a cantaloupe, and Quinn is a house. Explain to me how the DPOY voting happened. Or wait a second, because it's about to get worse.) But the world doesn't consist of just houses. It also consists of a big-ass fucking planet. And that planet is JJ Watt. He's so big, filled with rocks and magma and athleticism and minerals and a giant ball of iron and TALENT and another giant ball of iron (get it?), that he's simply incomparable to other defensive players. And that's why Houston rocks.
OROY: Blake Bortles. No comment.
DROY: Jadeveon Clowney. Still hate this pick.
COY: Pete Carroll. I have no idea how they choose who they give this award to. It's the worst award.
CBPOY: Percy Harvin. Still seems safe.
EOY: John Schneider. Still the only non-Elway exec I know.
Monday, October 6, 2014
NFL Week 5 Reaction
HI GUYS IT'S ME JESSE
FOOTBALL HAPPENED
Vikings @ Packers. Prediction: Packers. Result: Packers, 42-10.
Commentary: Aaron Rodgers is a green god. Christian Ponder is terrible. This game was slightly less close than it appeared. And it appeared BAD.
Bengals @ Patriots. Prediction: Bengals. Result: Patriots, 43-17.
Commentary: BRADY'S BACK!!!! Was this a resurgence or was it the last breath of a dying career? A swan song, if you will? I'm gonna credit myself for the "random big game" prediction because Dalton was amazing. Even though I specified non-QB. Whatever.
Bears @ Panthers. Prediction: Bears. Result: Panthers, 31-24.
Commentary: Fucking... god dammit.
Browns @ Titans. Prediction: Titans. Result: Browns, 29-28.
Commentary: THEY WERE UP 28-3. WHAT THE FUCK. HOW DO YOU ALLOW A 26-POINT COMEBACK TO BRIAN FUCKING HOYER. HOW DO YOU LOSE WHEN YOU HAVE TWO QBS THROWING FOR 120+ PASSER RATINGS OVER SIGNIFICANT ATTEMPTS.
Rams @ Eagles. Prediction: Eagles. Result: Eagles, 34-28.
Commentary: They TRIED to throw this one away. They were up 34-7 and they almost managed to lose it. Fuckers.
Falcons @ Giants. Prediction: Falcons. Result: Giants, 30-20.
Commentary: They were up 20-10. They allowed a big second-half comeback and lost. I'M SENSING A FUCKING PATTERN.
Bucs @ Saints. Prediction: Saints. Result: Saints, 37-31.
Commentary: The Saints went up 13-0. The Saints went down 24-13, and subsequently 31-20. The Saints went up 37-31. Playing with my emotions.
Texans @ Cowboys. Prediction: Texans. Result: Cowboys, 20-17.
Commentary: Fucking. Texans. You're breaking my heart. For the third time.
Bills @ Lions. Prediction: Lions. Result: Bills, 17-14.
Commentary: Detroit went up 14-0. I should have fucking known what was coming. But no. Dan Carpenter, who is a KICKER, and someone named Chris Gragg, who has simultaneously the worst and greatest name I've ever heard, conspired to destroy me yet again.
Ravens @ Colts. Prediction: Ravens. Result: Colts, 20-13.
Commentary: In my defense, Luck DID slow down when he hit a decent defense.
Steelers @ Jags. Prediction: Jags. Result: Steelers, 17-9.
Commentary: Yeah, I didn't actually expect this one to work. Addendum: I'm starting to lose faith in Bortles.
Cards @ Broncos. Prediction: Cards. Result: Broncos, 41-20.
Commentary: This one either. At least they kept it close. At first. Also, Logan Thomas with one of the strangest statlines I've ever seen: 1/8 passing, for 81 yards and 1 TD, giving him a capped rating of 108.9 and a UPR of 77.5.
Chiefs @ 49ers. Prediction: 49ers. Result: 49ers, 22-17.
Commentary: I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU!
Jets @ Chargers. Prediction: Chargers. Result: Chargers, 31-0.
Commentary: Ahhh. It feels good to get one dead on. Rivers is a beast. Geno's 7.6 rating was inflated slightly; his uncapped rating should have been 4.5. The Jets didn't have a QB throw for more than 2.5 yards per attempt. I just got a contact sad from writing that.
Seahawks @ Skins. Prediction: Seahawks. Result: Seahawks, 27-17.
Commentary: This game shouldn't have been anywhere near as close as it was. Penalties, primarily from offensive linemen, and a few key drops and mistakes from Wilson's receivers tempered his game, but Russell still looked like an absolute god, completing 75% of his passes for 201 yds and 2 TDs (127.3 PR), plus running for a MNF-QB-record 122 yards and a score. Harvin looked absolutely incredible, scoring three touchdowns that were called back in addition to his other contributions. Jon Ryan had probably the best game by a punter I've ever seen. And Bobby Wagner looked like the best LB in the league. Meanwhile the Redskins-minus-DJax struggled all day, and while Jackson broke a couple deep, he wasn't enough to win it for the Skins. The Redskins' 1.88 yards per rush attempt is the fifth-worst tally this season, and the Redskins' worst since 2010. The Seahawks inexplicably have an incredibly dominant run defense this year. I credit Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner.
Final Tally: 6-9. With FOUR games in which a team I picked went up by multiple scores, blew it, and lost; a fifth in which the team went up multiple scores, blew it, went DOWN multiple scores, then came back and lost; and a sixth in which a team went up multiple scores, allowed a huge comeback, NEARLY blew it, and then pulled it out. I'll say it again: The NFL is weird this year.
FOOTBALL HAPPENED
Vikings @ Packers. Prediction: Packers. Result: Packers, 42-10.
Commentary: Aaron Rodgers is a green god. Christian Ponder is terrible. This game was slightly less close than it appeared. And it appeared BAD.
Bengals @ Patriots. Prediction: Bengals. Result: Patriots, 43-17.
Commentary: BRADY'S BACK!!!! Was this a resurgence or was it the last breath of a dying career? A swan song, if you will? I'm gonna credit myself for the "random big game" prediction because Dalton was amazing. Even though I specified non-QB. Whatever.
Bears @ Panthers. Prediction: Bears. Result: Panthers, 31-24.
Commentary: Fucking... god dammit.
Browns @ Titans. Prediction: Titans. Result: Browns, 29-28.
Commentary: THEY WERE UP 28-3. WHAT THE FUCK. HOW DO YOU ALLOW A 26-POINT COMEBACK TO BRIAN FUCKING HOYER. HOW DO YOU LOSE WHEN YOU HAVE TWO QBS THROWING FOR 120+ PASSER RATINGS OVER SIGNIFICANT ATTEMPTS.
Rams @ Eagles. Prediction: Eagles. Result: Eagles, 34-28.
Commentary: They TRIED to throw this one away. They were up 34-7 and they almost managed to lose it. Fuckers.
Falcons @ Giants. Prediction: Falcons. Result: Giants, 30-20.
Commentary: They were up 20-10. They allowed a big second-half comeback and lost. I'M SENSING A FUCKING PATTERN.
Bucs @ Saints. Prediction: Saints. Result: Saints, 37-31.
Commentary: The Saints went up 13-0. The Saints went down 24-13, and subsequently 31-20. The Saints went up 37-31. Playing with my emotions.
Texans @ Cowboys. Prediction: Texans. Result: Cowboys, 20-17.
Commentary: Fucking. Texans. You're breaking my heart. For the third time.
Bills @ Lions. Prediction: Lions. Result: Bills, 17-14.
Commentary: Detroit went up 14-0. I should have fucking known what was coming. But no. Dan Carpenter, who is a KICKER, and someone named Chris Gragg, who has simultaneously the worst and greatest name I've ever heard, conspired to destroy me yet again.
Ravens @ Colts. Prediction: Ravens. Result: Colts, 20-13.
Commentary: In my defense, Luck DID slow down when he hit a decent defense.
Steelers @ Jags. Prediction: Jags. Result: Steelers, 17-9.
Commentary: Yeah, I didn't actually expect this one to work. Addendum: I'm starting to lose faith in Bortles.
Cards @ Broncos. Prediction: Cards. Result: Broncos, 41-20.
Commentary: This one either. At least they kept it close. At first. Also, Logan Thomas with one of the strangest statlines I've ever seen: 1/8 passing, for 81 yards and 1 TD, giving him a capped rating of 108.9 and a UPR of 77.5.
Chiefs @ 49ers. Prediction: 49ers. Result: 49ers, 22-17.
Commentary: I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU!
Jets @ Chargers. Prediction: Chargers. Result: Chargers, 31-0.
Commentary: Ahhh. It feels good to get one dead on. Rivers is a beast. Geno's 7.6 rating was inflated slightly; his uncapped rating should have been 4.5. The Jets didn't have a QB throw for more than 2.5 yards per attempt. I just got a contact sad from writing that.
Seahawks @ Skins. Prediction: Seahawks. Result: Seahawks, 27-17.
Commentary: This game shouldn't have been anywhere near as close as it was. Penalties, primarily from offensive linemen, and a few key drops and mistakes from Wilson's receivers tempered his game, but Russell still looked like an absolute god, completing 75% of his passes for 201 yds and 2 TDs (127.3 PR), plus running for a MNF-QB-record 122 yards and a score. Harvin looked absolutely incredible, scoring three touchdowns that were called back in addition to his other contributions. Jon Ryan had probably the best game by a punter I've ever seen. And Bobby Wagner looked like the best LB in the league. Meanwhile the Redskins-minus-DJax struggled all day, and while Jackson broke a couple deep, he wasn't enough to win it for the Skins. The Redskins' 1.88 yards per rush attempt is the fifth-worst tally this season, and the Redskins' worst since 2010. The Seahawks inexplicably have an incredibly dominant run defense this year. I credit Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner.
Final Tally: 6-9. With FOUR games in which a team I picked went up by multiple scores, blew it, and lost; a fifth in which the team went up multiple scores, blew it, went DOWN multiple scores, then came back and lost; and a sixth in which a team went up multiple scores, allowed a huge comeback, NEARLY blew it, and then pulled it out. I'll say it again: The NFL is weird this year.
Sunday, October 5, 2014
Jon Kitna vs. Andrew Luck
Manning vs. Brady.
There are two possible explanations for this data. First, Kitna really is great, and the fact that Luck performed comparably to him is a huge boon for Luck's career. Second, Kitna sucks and Luck sucks too. Third (I forgot to mention there are actually three possible explanations), Kitna is great and underperformed because he didn't want to make everyone else feel inadequate, and Luck just sucks. This is my choice.
Luck. Is. An. Ogre.
Kitna. Is. A. Kitten.
Bird vs. Magic.
Russell vs. Wilt.
Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Me vs. Football God.
FDR and Stalin vs. Hitler.
Taylor Swift vs. masturbation vs. beer vs. Bach vs. Shakespeare vs. Thanksgiving dinner.*
Kitna vs. Luck.
* For the "crowning achievement of humanity" award.
Our lives, and especially our sports, are defined by great rivalries. You don't remember high school for the dumbass people or the useless classes, you remember it for the rivalry between the coalition of janitors and the fearsome raccoon population in the third-floor boys' bathroom. You don't remember college for the less dumbass people and the less useless classes, you remember it for the rivalry between the college you didn't go to that you like and the college you didn't go to that you hate. You don't remember some third place for some thing or some other thing, you remember it because of some invented rivalry. I don't know. This is a low-effort post.
But one of the greatest rivalries in sports history has gone by virtually unnoticed under our very noses. I'm talking, of course, about the rivalry between Andrew Luck and the great Jon Kitna, who's apparently still active in the NFL.
"That's absurd," you laugh. "Kitna's one of the all-time greats (42nd in career yards, 61st in TDs, 82nd in PR, and a surprisingly good 27th in cmp%), while Luck's an overrated ogre who can't throw a football to save his life." Or some less cliched idiom. Low-effort post.
But you're wrong! You're wrong, and I hate you. For, you see, at key moments in their respective careers, Luck and Kitna followed startlingly similar trajectories. Behold the magic. Behold the truth. Unless you can't handle it.
For the first four years of his career, Kitna was a member of the Seahawks. During that time, he won four MVPs and four Super Bowls, leading his team to a flawless 64-0 record (plus 16-0 in the preseason). It is primarily a result of this period that Kitna is considered the clearest Hall of Fame lock in NFL history, and why Peyton Manning, in a joint interview with Tom Brady, once described him as "the guy we all wish we could have been... [Kitna] was an icon." (Brady later added, "Jon did things with the football that Peyton and Brett [Favre] and I could only dream of. He had this poise with the ball that made him look like a Greek god, this Adonis in the pocket.")
Meanwhile, Luck's rookie season was speckled with potholes and mistakes. He was the shame of the league, and he'd often exit the tunnel to a cacophony of boos and thrown beverages. Just kidding. But he should have been. Here is how they match up.
Rookie Luck vs. Seahawks Kitna:
CMP: 54.1% vs 58.2%
TD:INT Ratio: 1.28 vs 1.09
Passer Rating: 76.5 vs 76.3
For the first four years of his career, Kitna was a member of the Seahawks. During that time, he won four MVPs and four Super Bowls, leading his team to a flawless 64-0 record (plus 16-0 in the preseason). It is primarily a result of this period that Kitna is considered the clearest Hall of Fame lock in NFL history, and why Peyton Manning, in a joint interview with Tom Brady, once described him as "the guy we all wish we could have been... [Kitna] was an icon." (Brady later added, "Jon did things with the football that Peyton and Brett [Favre] and I could only dream of. He had this poise with the ball that made him look like a Greek god, this Adonis in the pocket.")
Meanwhile, Luck's rookie season was speckled with potholes and mistakes. He was the shame of the league, and he'd often exit the tunnel to a cacophony of boos and thrown beverages. Just kidding. But he should have been. Here is how they match up.
Rookie Luck vs. Seahawks Kitna:
CMP: 54.1% vs 58.2%
TD:INT Ratio: 1.28 vs 1.09
Passer Rating: 76.5 vs 76.3
I'M SEEING DOUBLE.
There are two possible explanations for this data. First, Kitna really is great, and the fact that Luck performed comparably to him is a huge boon for Luck's career. Second, Kitna sucks and Luck sucks too. Third (I forgot to mention there are actually three possible explanations), Kitna is great and underperformed because he didn't want to make everyone else feel inadequate, and Luck just sucks. This is my choice.
Luck. Is. An. Ogre.
Kitna. Is. A. Kitten.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
From the Archives: The Case Against Andrew Luck
On January 11th, 2013, I wrote an article for the Claremont Sports Connection. This article, entitled The Case Against Andrew Luck, would become my go-to reference for any arguments about Andrew Luck. I reproduce the article here because the original CSC website is no longer functioning.
The Case Against Andrew Luck.
The 2012-2013 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race comes down to three quarterbacks: Robert Griffin III of Washington, Russell Wilson of Seattle, and Andrew Luck of Indianapolis. You can make very strong, well-founded, convincing arguments for the first two of them, and no matter which candidate you support, it’s tough to argue that either one of them doesn’t deserve it. However, one of the candidates does not belong anywhere near the conversation, and in fact his performance has been one of the worst in the league this season. That candidate is Andrew Luck.
Luck has had an absolutely terrible season. That’s not entirely his fault, as I’ll explain later on, but the fact remains that he has not produced anywhere near the level of the other two. (I’ll be comparing Luck predominantly to Wilson throughout this article, since Griffin outperforms Wilson in pretty much every stat and I’m more familiar with Wilson’s performance this season. Griffin is also probably the stronger candidate, and should be the favorite to win, even though he’s not.)
If Andrew Luck wins Rookie of the Year, I'll be appalled. His statistics in every single category besides pass attempts (which are absolutely meaningless; I could throw 700 times in the NFL, albeit mostly interceptions) and net yards (which are largely meaningless and correlate very weakly with victory, as I'll get to in a minute) are terrible. Every measure of efficiency puts Wilson above Luck, and for the most part, it isn’t close. And the arguments for why Luck transcends the statistics are, for the most part, bogus. Let's start with statistics, and Luck's phenomenally bad season by the numbers.
Seriously, pick your favorite metric and check. Completion percentage? Wilson, 64.1%-54.1%. (That's right, Wilson completes 10 percentage points more passes than Luck. In other words, Luck has 87 more completions on 234 more throws. Oh, and Luck didn't break 50% in any of his last five regular season games, during the Colts' 4-1 stretch to end the season. Don't give him too much credit for the Colts' strong finish.)
Yards per attempt? Wilson, 7.9-7.0. ANY/A (an advanced version of yards per attempt taking into account a few more factors)? Wilson, 6.8-5.7. Touchdown percentage? Wilson, 6.6-3.7. Interception percentage? Wilson, 2.5-2.9 (lower is better). Passer rating? Wilson, 100.0-76.5. QBR (questionable though it may be)? Wilson, 36.7-27.2.
Suffice it to say Luck's been pretty bad this year. How bad, you ask? Well, just based on passer rating and completion percentage, he just had one of the 25 worst rookie seasons ever.
Well, that's not that bad. Let's compare him to his contemporaries! Same criteria, all qualifying quarterbacks, this season only.
Oh. According to the results, Luck is the third-worst qualifying quarterback in the league this year (there were 29). I think that stat speaks for itself, but in case it doesn't, let me say this: When the only other QBs in the league performing as badly as you are Mark Sanchez and Chad Henne, you probably don't deserve a major seasonal award.
The common arguments made in Luck's favor are that "he is asked to do more with less", and that "he turned the Colts around". I have brief responses to both these points.
First, that "he is asked to do more with less". That may be true. In fact, I don't doubt that the Colts need Luck more than the Seahawks need Wilson or the Redskins need Griffin. But the fact is, no matter how much Luck may be asked to do, he's playing really badly. He may be asked to do more with less, but he's not actually doing more with less. He's not even doing slightly less with less. He's doing WAY less with less. If that's enough to win an award like this, then you might as well give MVP to Henne; he's playing slightly worse than Luck playing with a far worse team.
But wait! you might exclaim. Luck is winning games, and Henne isn't! In other words, Luck "turned the Colts around." Right?
Well, kind of. If you follow advanced NFL team stats at all (FootballOutsider’s DVOA, Pythagorean wins, etc.) you know that the Colts aren't exactly as good as their record indicates. In fact, by many metrics, they're well below average as a team. But they've won games, and Luck's passed for a ton of yards, and that's enough for most fans.
But it shouldn't be. All research indicates that passing yards are basically uncorrelated with wins. In other words, quarterbacks passing for a lot of yards are about as likely to win games as lose games, and the same is true for QBs passing for only a few yards. It’s not quite fair to say that this means that Luck’s high yardage numbers aren’t doing his team any good, but it’s also not unreasonable.
So why are they winning so much? Part of it is strength of schedule – SoS is calculated different ways by different people, but regardless of how you slice it the Colts had one of the easiest schedules in the league this year. But honestly, they're probably just lucky (pun not intended). 9 of their 11 wins have come by 7 points or less, and games that close are basically coin flips, just due to the sheer number of impossible-to-control elements that decide a game that close. That's why they had net negative points (-30) and yards (-189) on the season (not to mention performing terribly in most advanced metrics) and still won 11 games.
They got lucky in 9/10 close games they played (four losses were by >7 points, as were two wins). If you say on average they'll win five of those close games, but leave the blowouts the same, this season should be somewhere around 7-9 for the Colts, give or take a game or two. Still decent, but certainly not amazing, and probably about what you'd expect from a rookie like Luck, considering the improvement he offers over the Colts' QBs last year, and considering the Colts’ incredibly easy SoS this year. Is Luck the magical X-factor that enabled this team to beat ridiculous odds? Again, probably not. He's just lucky (pun intended that time).
The Rookie of the Year race comes down to two guys who had two of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history, and one guy who played about as well as Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez and happened to get incredibly lucky (seriously, 9/10? Are you kidding me?). The decision may be anything but clear, but this part of it shouldn’t be hard to agree with: Andrew Luck doesn’t belong remotely close to the ROTY conversation.
The Case Against Andrew Luck.
The 2012-2013 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race comes down to three quarterbacks: Robert Griffin III of Washington, Russell Wilson of Seattle, and Andrew Luck of Indianapolis. You can make very strong, well-founded, convincing arguments for the first two of them, and no matter which candidate you support, it’s tough to argue that either one of them doesn’t deserve it. However, one of the candidates does not belong anywhere near the conversation, and in fact his performance has been one of the worst in the league this season. That candidate is Andrew Luck.
Luck has had an absolutely terrible season. That’s not entirely his fault, as I’ll explain later on, but the fact remains that he has not produced anywhere near the level of the other two. (I’ll be comparing Luck predominantly to Wilson throughout this article, since Griffin outperforms Wilson in pretty much every stat and I’m more familiar with Wilson’s performance this season. Griffin is also probably the stronger candidate, and should be the favorite to win, even though he’s not.)
If Andrew Luck wins Rookie of the Year, I'll be appalled. His statistics in every single category besides pass attempts (which are absolutely meaningless; I could throw 700 times in the NFL, albeit mostly interceptions) and net yards (which are largely meaningless and correlate very weakly with victory, as I'll get to in a minute) are terrible. Every measure of efficiency puts Wilson above Luck, and for the most part, it isn’t close. And the arguments for why Luck transcends the statistics are, for the most part, bogus. Let's start with statistics, and Luck's phenomenally bad season by the numbers.
Seriously, pick your favorite metric and check. Completion percentage? Wilson, 64.1%-54.1%. (That's right, Wilson completes 10 percentage points more passes than Luck. In other words, Luck has 87 more completions on 234 more throws. Oh, and Luck didn't break 50% in any of his last five regular season games, during the Colts' 4-1 stretch to end the season. Don't give him too much credit for the Colts' strong finish.)
Yards per attempt? Wilson, 7.9-7.0. ANY/A (an advanced version of yards per attempt taking into account a few more factors)? Wilson, 6.8-5.7. Touchdown percentage? Wilson, 6.6-3.7. Interception percentage? Wilson, 2.5-2.9 (lower is better). Passer rating? Wilson, 100.0-76.5. QBR (questionable though it may be)? Wilson, 36.7-27.2.
Suffice it to say Luck's been pretty bad this year. How bad, you ask? Well, just based on passer rating and completion percentage, he just had one of the 25 worst rookie seasons ever.
Well, that's not that bad. Let's compare him to his contemporaries! Same criteria, all qualifying quarterbacks, this season only.
Oh. According to the results, Luck is the third-worst qualifying quarterback in the league this year (there were 29). I think that stat speaks for itself, but in case it doesn't, let me say this: When the only other QBs in the league performing as badly as you are Mark Sanchez and Chad Henne, you probably don't deserve a major seasonal award.
The common arguments made in Luck's favor are that "he is asked to do more with less", and that "he turned the Colts around". I have brief responses to both these points.
First, that "he is asked to do more with less". That may be true. In fact, I don't doubt that the Colts need Luck more than the Seahawks need Wilson or the Redskins need Griffin. But the fact is, no matter how much Luck may be asked to do, he's playing really badly. He may be asked to do more with less, but he's not actually doing more with less. He's not even doing slightly less with less. He's doing WAY less with less. If that's enough to win an award like this, then you might as well give MVP to Henne; he's playing slightly worse than Luck playing with a far worse team.
But wait! you might exclaim. Luck is winning games, and Henne isn't! In other words, Luck "turned the Colts around." Right?
Well, kind of. If you follow advanced NFL team stats at all (FootballOutsider’s DVOA, Pythagorean wins, etc.) you know that the Colts aren't exactly as good as their record indicates. In fact, by many metrics, they're well below average as a team. But they've won games, and Luck's passed for a ton of yards, and that's enough for most fans.
But it shouldn't be. All research indicates that passing yards are basically uncorrelated with wins. In other words, quarterbacks passing for a lot of yards are about as likely to win games as lose games, and the same is true for QBs passing for only a few yards. It’s not quite fair to say that this means that Luck’s high yardage numbers aren’t doing his team any good, but it’s also not unreasonable.
So why are they winning so much? Part of it is strength of schedule – SoS is calculated different ways by different people, but regardless of how you slice it the Colts had one of the easiest schedules in the league this year. But honestly, they're probably just lucky (pun not intended). 9 of their 11 wins have come by 7 points or less, and games that close are basically coin flips, just due to the sheer number of impossible-to-control elements that decide a game that close. That's why they had net negative points (-30) and yards (-189) on the season (not to mention performing terribly in most advanced metrics) and still won 11 games.
They got lucky in 9/10 close games they played (four losses were by >7 points, as were two wins). If you say on average they'll win five of those close games, but leave the blowouts the same, this season should be somewhere around 7-9 for the Colts, give or take a game or two. Still decent, but certainly not amazing, and probably about what you'd expect from a rookie like Luck, considering the improvement he offers over the Colts' QBs last year, and considering the Colts’ incredibly easy SoS this year. Is Luck the magical X-factor that enabled this team to beat ridiculous odds? Again, probably not. He's just lucky (pun intended that time).
The Rookie of the Year race comes down to two guys who had two of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history, and one guy who played about as well as Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez and happened to get incredibly lucky (seriously, 9/10? Are you kidding me?). The decision may be anything but clear, but this part of it shouldn’t be hard to agree with: Andrew Luck doesn’t belong remotely close to the ROTY conversation.
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