Let's pick up where we left off.
Eagles @ Colts: 30-27 Eagles. Prediction: Eagles close. Verdict: NAILED IT!
I was a little worried when Andrew Luck started off the game with a passer rating in the triple digits, but once he remembered that he was Andrew Luck and his performance dropped off a little bit (read: a cliff) things evened out again. I will say once again that I don't believe in Philadelphia this year, but I'm glad they won.
I realize that sometimes it gets confusing trying to keep track of which teams I "believe in" and which ones I don't. (teams I "believe in" here refers to teams that aren't generally considered to be contenders that I believe have the potential to be great.) Here's the quick runthrough of the middling teams that could go either way.
Houston: I believe! JJ Watt and Ryan Fitzpatrick will carry Houston to the promised land.
Philadelphia: I don't believe. Philly had a magical season last year, but Foles turned real-life Madden from Rookie to Veteran (or whateer; I haven't played Madden in years) and now he's mortal. Plus LeSean McCoy sucks now. Get me off this bandwagon before it crashes and burns.
Arizona: I don't believe. The Cards have an elite defense, don't get me wrong. But that's as far as their eliteness goes.
Chicago: I believe! I love that offense. I really do. It's always rough when your weakest link is quarterback, but when a guy like Cutler has that much talent around him he can make stuff happen. Plus now the defense is maybe a little competent?? We'll see.
Atlanta: I want to believe. But they're just not that good.
Minnesota: I don't believe. Just out of spite. If Peterson plays they're decent. But Peterson shouldn't play because he's a lousy excuse for a human being and a waste of breath. Child abuse is something that I can't forgive and he's openly admitted to his actions. I hope he never plays another down in the NFL. (As for the Vikings' decision to try to play him this weekend, I hate it. It's a terrible, classless move. They're doing it because they lost badly without him and they're embarrassed. But this isn't something that it's okay to compromise on.)
EDIT: The Vikings apparently read my article and decided to pull an about-face on the Peterson situation. Guys, PSA: When you make one decision and then reverse it to the wrong one and then reverse it again to the right one, it makes you look less like moral people who are trying to do the right thing and more like greedy cowards who are trying to maximize profits and minimize bad press. Which I realize is exactly what you are. But you could at least TRY to hide it.
Tennessee: I... don't believe. I'm sorry, Jake. I still love you.
Baltimore: I believe... a little. Flaccastrophe! Fl*cc*sterisk! Flacck of Seagulls! I have no idea where that last reference came from. I don't even know that band. But no. I don't believe in the Ravens.
Lions: I believe. I don't want to (they're the Lions), but somehow I have to.
Jets: No. Sorry.
Redskins: I BELIEVE!!! Even if RG BEliEvE doesn't come back, I still believe. The Redskins are the chosen ones. There is going to be a Redskins-Texans Super Bowl. It is going to shock the shit out of everyone, and it will be beautiful.
Chargers: I believe! And not only because they tore the shit out of my team and its legendary defense.
Browns: Hahahahahahaha! I don't believe. And I feel like this is a good time to mention that I predicted the failure, at the NFL level, of both Johnny Manziel and Jadeveon Clowney. I realize Clowney is injured, but Manziel just sucks. I predicted this. I have proof. Which I'll share when it becomes relevant (the season has just begun).
Colts: I don't believe so hard. I don't believe even harder than it is for Andrew Luck to talk to girls.
Chiefs: I don't believe even a little bit.
Jaguars: I don't believe. Sorry, guys.
All the rest are either clear contenders or clear losers in my eyes. Use your best judgement.
Anyway... I close my week with a win! Which brings my overall record (just looking at winners/losers, not at distance) to... 8-7! (I'm not counting the Baltimore game because I'm not an asshole.) That's a pretty bad record. But. Um.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Week 2 Reactions / Prediction Results
Wazzaaaaaaaap? (Yeah, that's right, you haven't fucking seen THAT in ten years.) Um. Week 2 is over, and here's what happened.
Steelers @ Ravens: 26-6 Ravens. Prediction: Ravens, not close. Verdict: PERFECT!
I AM A GOD. A football god. Good for you, Flaccastrophe. Prove the doubters wrong. You're still #eliteasfuck.
Seahawks @ Chargers: 30-21 Chargers. Prediction: Seahawks not close. Verdict: Wrong.
Fuck. Fuck this game. The Seahawks' offense looked fantastic, but the defense just couldn't handle the heat. And I mean that literally. They're great under pressure. Just not when it's fucking 120 degrees on the field because you live in North Mexico. Meanwhile San Diego's massively underrated offensive looked unstoppable. Good for them.
Patriots @ Vikings: 30-7 Patriots. Prediction: Patriots close. Verdict: Rightish.
Oh look Brady's back a little bit. And Cassel (39.1 PR) is back to his old self. Turns out losing your best player (by far) hurts your team. And let me take this opportunity to say that Adrian Peterson is a fucking terrible person. Hitting a child is child abuse. If you can't figure out a healthier way to discipline your child, it's because you're a bad parent. But what Peterson did goes way beyond spanking or slapping or any of the awful-but-somehow-relatively-socially-acceptable corporal punishments that bad parents with archaic ideas of child-rearing dole out. He beat the crap out of a four-year-old with a stick. He hurt his child badly enough that the wounds I saw on the internet, pictures taken a week after the fact, were sickening. He stuffed leaves in his child's mouth as he whipped him. He had a room specifically for hurting his child. Cris Carter nailed it. Adrian Peterson is a piece of shit.
Dolphins @ Bills: 29-10 Bills. Prediction: Dolphins close. Verdict: Wrong.
So Wake did literally nothing. And Sammy Watkins, whom I've long said is overrated and will amount to little at the pro level, actually did something. Is it possible that I was--NO. We mustn't think these thoughts, Jesse.
Jaguars @ Redskins: 41-10 Redskins. Prediction: Redskins, not close. Verdict: RIGHT!!
#nailedit. Okay, so maybe I should have said "I believe in Redskins quarterbacks." I mean, RGIII got injured and is missing time (fuck), but Kirk Cousins #killedit. I'll also point out that Morris, now with a real QB again, is playing very well. Fuck I should have taken him in my #FF #league.
Cowboys @ Titans: 26-10 Cowboys. Prediction: Cowboys, close. Verdict: Rightish.
I love bad bitches, that's my fucking problem. Jake Locker loves making bad throws, that's his fucking problem. But he also loves throwing to Delanie Walker, which worked out surprisingly well for him. Tony Romo loves throwing for passer ratings in the range of 90-99 and being underrated, that's his fucking problem. Or maybe his problem is getting tackled by Big Play Babs after muffing the snap in the 2006 NFC Wild Card playoffs. YEAH I WENT THERE.
Cardinals @ Giants: 25-14 Cardinals. Prediction: Cardz, not close. Verdict: Right.
Yes, the Giants are that bad. Yes, the Cardinals' D is that good. No, the rest of the Red Team isn't quite that good. No, they're not going to win the NFC West. Down, boy.
Saints @ Browns: 26-24 Browns. Prediction: Saints, not close. Verdict: Wrong.
HOW THE FUCK DID THIS EVEN HAPPEN???
Falcons @ Bengals: 24-10 Bengals. Prediction: Falcons, close. Verdict: Wrong.
Oops. (Dalton working off that contract, though.)
Lions @ Panthers: 24-7 Panthers. Prediction: Lions, not close. Verdict: Very wrong.
ALL THAT RESEARCH FOR NOTHING!!! It turns out good teams, in a surprising twist, are still better than bad teams. I didn't expect that.
Rams @ Buccaneers: 19-17 Rams. Prediction: Bucs, close. Verdict: Wrongish.
I don't feel bad about this one. I said both teams suck. They do.
Texans @ Raiders: 30-14 Texans. Prediction: Texans, not close. Verdict: SO RIGHT!!!!
FUCKING NAILED IT. I love the Texans this year. Baby. They're coming back. That Fitzpatrick. That Watt. (That what?) That Watt. (That what?) That Watt. (That what?) You heard me. (Cool.)
Jets @ Packers: 31-24 Packers. Prediction: Packers, not close. Verdict: Right more or less.
Nice game from Jordy Nelson. Solid performance from Rodgers. The Jets weren't great. THIS IS WHAT YOU'D BE GETTING IF I WERE A NORMAL SPORTSWRITER.
Instead I'm going to say that Rodger's performance was nearly Wilson-esque, and Geno Smith actually looked passable (no pun intended) despite, you know, the bad passing. Football God thinks the Jets are a top-four team in the AFC. I'm not quite that high on them, but I'm excited to see what they can do.
Chiefs @ Broncos: 24-17 Broncos. Prediction: Broncos, not close. Verdict: Pretty much right.
It's the Broncos. Peyton had a passer rating of 143.9. He's Peyton. This is why he's going to win OPOY. (Actually if he keeps up at this pace he'll just win MVP again. Fuck.) Meanwhile the Chiefs were all overrated-y and played like an overrated team. Because--guess what... They're overrated.
Bears @ 49ers: 28-20 Bears. Prediction: 49ers, close. Verdict: Wrongish.
I do love that Bears offense. But more than that I LOVE that Bears defense. I mean, holding SF to 20 points is impressive enough. But picking off the loathsome Kaepernick three times?? Including two by Kyle Fuller, who stole Devin Hester's number (grr), and one incredibly athletic one by Chris Conte? That was awesome. Go Bears.
Oh yeah, so the Monday night game hasn't happened yet. This is awkward.
Steelers @ Ravens: 26-6 Ravens. Prediction: Ravens, not close. Verdict: PERFECT!
I AM A GOD. A football god. Good for you, Flaccastrophe. Prove the doubters wrong. You're still #eliteasfuck.
Seahawks @ Chargers: 30-21 Chargers. Prediction: Seahawks not close. Verdict: Wrong.
Fuck. Fuck this game. The Seahawks' offense looked fantastic, but the defense just couldn't handle the heat. And I mean that literally. They're great under pressure. Just not when it's fucking 120 degrees on the field because you live in North Mexico. Meanwhile San Diego's massively underrated offensive looked unstoppable. Good for them.
Patriots @ Vikings: 30-7 Patriots. Prediction: Patriots close. Verdict: Rightish.
Oh look Brady's back a little bit. And Cassel (39.1 PR) is back to his old self. Turns out losing your best player (by far) hurts your team. And let me take this opportunity to say that Adrian Peterson is a fucking terrible person. Hitting a child is child abuse. If you can't figure out a healthier way to discipline your child, it's because you're a bad parent. But what Peterson did goes way beyond spanking or slapping or any of the awful-but-somehow-relatively-socially-acceptable corporal punishments that bad parents with archaic ideas of child-rearing dole out. He beat the crap out of a four-year-old with a stick. He hurt his child badly enough that the wounds I saw on the internet, pictures taken a week after the fact, were sickening. He stuffed leaves in his child's mouth as he whipped him. He had a room specifically for hurting his child. Cris Carter nailed it. Adrian Peterson is a piece of shit.
Dolphins @ Bills: 29-10 Bills. Prediction: Dolphins close. Verdict: Wrong.
So Wake did literally nothing. And Sammy Watkins, whom I've long said is overrated and will amount to little at the pro level, actually did something. Is it possible that I was--NO. We mustn't think these thoughts, Jesse.
Jaguars @ Redskins: 41-10 Redskins. Prediction: Redskins, not close. Verdict: RIGHT!!
#nailedit. Okay, so maybe I should have said "I believe in Redskins quarterbacks." I mean, RGIII got injured and is missing time (fuck), but Kirk Cousins #killedit. I'll also point out that Morris, now with a real QB again, is playing very well. Fuck I should have taken him in my #FF #league.
Cowboys @ Titans: 26-10 Cowboys. Prediction: Cowboys, close. Verdict: Rightish.
I love bad bitches, that's my fucking problem. Jake Locker loves making bad throws, that's his fucking problem. But he also loves throwing to Delanie Walker, which worked out surprisingly well for him. Tony Romo loves throwing for passer ratings in the range of 90-99 and being underrated, that's his fucking problem. Or maybe his problem is getting tackled by Big Play Babs after muffing the snap in the 2006 NFC Wild Card playoffs. YEAH I WENT THERE.
Cardinals @ Giants: 25-14 Cardinals. Prediction: Cardz, not close. Verdict: Right.
Yes, the Giants are that bad. Yes, the Cardinals' D is that good. No, the rest of the Red Team isn't quite that good. No, they're not going to win the NFC West. Down, boy.
Saints @ Browns: 26-24 Browns. Prediction: Saints, not close. Verdict: Wrong.
HOW THE FUCK DID THIS EVEN HAPPEN???
Falcons @ Bengals: 24-10 Bengals. Prediction: Falcons, close. Verdict: Wrong.
Oops. (Dalton working off that contract, though.)
Lions @ Panthers: 24-7 Panthers. Prediction: Lions, not close. Verdict: Very wrong.
ALL THAT RESEARCH FOR NOTHING!!! It turns out good teams, in a surprising twist, are still better than bad teams. I didn't expect that.
Rams @ Buccaneers: 19-17 Rams. Prediction: Bucs, close. Verdict: Wrongish.
I don't feel bad about this one. I said both teams suck. They do.
Texans @ Raiders: 30-14 Texans. Prediction: Texans, not close. Verdict: SO RIGHT!!!!
FUCKING NAILED IT. I love the Texans this year. Baby. They're coming back. That Fitzpatrick. That Watt. (That what?) That Watt. (That what?) That Watt. (That what?) You heard me. (Cool.)
Jets @ Packers: 31-24 Packers. Prediction: Packers, not close. Verdict: Right more or less.
Nice game from Jordy Nelson. Solid performance from Rodgers. The Jets weren't great. THIS IS WHAT YOU'D BE GETTING IF I WERE A NORMAL SPORTSWRITER.
Instead I'm going to say that Rodger's performance was nearly Wilson-esque, and Geno Smith actually looked passable (no pun intended) despite, you know, the bad passing. Football God thinks the Jets are a top-four team in the AFC. I'm not quite that high on them, but I'm excited to see what they can do.
Chiefs @ Broncos: 24-17 Broncos. Prediction: Broncos, not close. Verdict: Pretty much right.
It's the Broncos. Peyton had a passer rating of 143.9. He's Peyton. This is why he's going to win OPOY. (Actually if he keeps up at this pace he'll just win MVP again. Fuck.) Meanwhile the Chiefs were all overrated-y and played like an overrated team. Because--guess what... They're overrated.
Bears @ 49ers: 28-20 Bears. Prediction: 49ers, close. Verdict: Wrongish.
I do love that Bears offense. But more than that I LOVE that Bears defense. I mean, holding SF to 20 points is impressive enough. But picking off the loathsome Kaepernick three times?? Including two by Kyle Fuller, who stole Devin Hester's number (grr), and one incredibly athletic one by Chris Conte? That was awesome. Go Bears.
Oh yeah, so the Monday night game hasn't happened yet. This is awkward.
The Goodell-Must-Go Bag, Except With Me
Other people get a lot of mail so they can have mailbags. I don't, not least because I don't have an email address associated with this blog so nobody could email me even if they tried. I think. BUT Bill Simmons gets a lot of mail, and two days ago he did a mailbag on the whole Ray Rice situation. I'm going to steal his letters and answer them, because I'm better than him.
Q: Why is TMZ doing a better investigation into Ray Rice than the NFL?
—Patrick, Rockford
TMZ is actually a powerful investigative force, while the NFL is a sports league. It shouldn't be surprising when the NEWS website, which by the way has broken (and investigated) a TON of other stories, performs better in the department than the league whose only job is, you know, to play football. It's not even unprecedented for a 'news' entity to perform better than a capital-n News entity regarding a major sports scandal -- remember when Deadspin broke the Manti Te'o story? Seriously, remember that story?? That was one of the greatest moments in Notre Dame--nay, in football--nay, in human--history. And that was Deadspin, which I think is supposed to be a joke. TMZ is a real news entity. It's weird that you're surprised by this. You're weird.
Q: So I have to wait for someone Goodell hired to find out if Goodell is lying? I have no reason to think the AP report isn’t true, and for owners to stand by Goodell because he’s made them enough money is terrible.
—Lee Brewer, Los Angeles
Um... Are you new to professional sports? This shit happens ALL THE TIME. Remember how Ford pardoned Nixon? Same basic idea. In certain jobs, there's a threshold for what you can do, and if you stay below it, you'll never, ever be punished for your actions (outside of some bad press and maybe an early retirement). In the Presidency it's so high that no one's found the ceiling yet. (Then again no President has actually done anything that bad, so let's wait and see if President Jeb Bush ends up hypothetically killing a stripper or something.) In the commissionerships of major American sports leagues, it is at least high enough to excuse:
- Colluding with an owner to steal a franchise and move it across the country, then do the commissioner equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and humming when someone points to the very public evidence of your corruption and asks you what's up.
- Possibly fixing the draft lottery, and responding to questions about the legitimacy of the process by refusing to show anyone the lottery from that point forward (because transparency is way less legitimate than obscurity).
- Brushing the single most egregious instance of referee corruption in American sports history under the rug and entirely failing to investigate said referee's claims that many other referees were doing the same thing.
- Abusing your power, going against your word, and kowtowing to two relatively weak owners when they ask you to veto a trade agreed to by two teams, never mind the MASSIVE conflict of interest that arises as a result of the fact that 1) you own one of the teams, and 2) the people asking you to do this are, by definition, massively biased with respect to the trade. In his temporary defense, said commissioner DID acknowledge the conflict of interest when he agreed not to exercise his power in regards to any trade involving the team he owned. However, he did, of course, immediately go against this pledge and directly exercise his power in the least legitimate way possible.
These aren't hypotheticals. These are things that David Stern did. There are more. The point is that major American sports are multi-billion dollar industries, and that money goes to--guess who--the fucking owners (and the commissioner. Guess how much money Roger Goodell is worth? I'll give you a hint: It's several orders of magnitude more than you). Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Well, Goodell is powerful as fuck, and he's pretty goddamn well corrupt. Just like every commissioner ever. Get over it.
Q: Will we end up calling the NFL’s new domestic violence policy “The Ray Rice Rule?”
—Joseph, VA Beach
I doubt it. Who wants to immortalize that guy?
Q: Why did it take the TMZ videotape to make this incident become “intolerable” and “outrageous” to the NFL and especially the Ravens? From what I have read and heard, Ray Rice never lied about what happened in the elevator. Yet, the Ravens stood by Rice, called him a good man, held a press conference in which he apologized to everybody but his wife, tweeted her apology for, I guess, allowing herself to be hit and knocked unconscious, and even implied that Ray had some justification for what happened. So if Rice told them what happened and he was still a “good guy,” somebody the Ravens were willing to stand behind, and somebody who deserved only a limited suspension from the NFL, why is he now not that same guy? The Ravens and NFL were willing to embrace the man right up until public opinion made that a bad business move. It’s jaded and it’s insulting and it needs to be called out. The NFL and Ravens (and pretty much every media outlet) didn’t screw up by not finding the videotape; they screwed up by never realizing that what happened in that elevator is unacceptable and intolerable regardless of whether a video exists or not. That’s where the focus should be, right?
—Erica Phillips, Boise, Idaho
Well, yeah. That's the whole controversy. We already knew what Rice did, as did the owners and the commissioner and the team. It's just now that the video has hit the web that the people are outraged, and the commissioner and the team are frantically trying to backpedal and pretend they were outraged from the get-go. Which, of course, they weren't, because Ray Rice is a valuable asset to both parties and they would rather have him around than lose him. This just in: Big Business is not a moral entity. Welcome to America.
Q: If Goodell played the President on 24, would he take Jack Bauer off the job for no good reason, let the bomb go off then deny it’s going off, or hire a second terrorist group to purposefully stop so people would forget about the first one?
—Max, Cleveland
I'm 99% sure that all those things actually happened on 24. Goodell wouldn't even be the worst President on the show. Or in real life, for that matter.
Q: Why can’t the NFL create an ESPN special to announce the suspensions from every offseason? Run it during early July and the dream of owning the whole year is solved. Get the fans involved by having Goodell let fans vote a player to get more or less via Twitter. The world needs this.
—Patrick, Minneapolis
This is a weird idea. Why is this even in the mailbag? This is like a joke, like maybe one you'd say to your buddies if you were trying really hard to impress them, except that it's completely without any semblance of humor.
Q: I can’t wait until next month when the league requires its players to wear pink, because Roger Goodell really cares about women’s health.
—Alex Hensel, Denver
Yep. The league is hypocritical. Um... Not sure what response you're looking for.
Q: Please answer this in your column. Do you believe Ray Rice should lose his football career?
—Sarah, East Lansing
I want to refuse to answer this question just on principle in reaction to that first sentence. Also because I don't want to actually answer it. But here's the question as I'm reading it: It's not "do you think Rice will lose his career," and it's not "if it was up to you, would Rice lose his career." It's "from an abstract moral perspective, do Rice's actions merit a lifetime ban from the league?" And the answer, regrettably, is no. If he goes to jail (which he won't) and pays his debt to society (which he won't), he should be allowed back in the league. That doesn't make what he did any less disgusting or deplorable, and if it was up to me he'd never play another down in his life. But the NFL's role is not to be the universal morality police (obviously), and if they refuse to let him play again it WON'T be because what he did was awful (even though it was), it will be because the bad press generated by his presence will cost them more money than his performance will bring to the league. If you honestly think it's not about this, refer back to my answer to the really long question from Erica.
Q: Does Goodell’s blown cover-up of the Rice tape finally give credence to the conspiracy theorists (like myself) that believe the Spygate tapes were so egregious, he destroyed them to save the face of the NFL brand? Remember, this is a man so drunk with power, he thought the Rice tape wouldn’t surface.
—Connor, Pittsburgh, PA
This has always been a possibility. But Spygate was never as big a deal as people made it out to be. Remember what happened immediately after the scandal? When the Patriots went on a tear the likes of which the league had never seen, despite losing the ostensible advantage of their videotapes? People need to stop bitching about Spygate. It's deep in the past, and it probably didn't have that big an impact on the outcome of the games. The Saints' Bountygate scandal was way (way way) worse and everyone basically forgot it happened a year later. It's been more than seven years since Spygate. Come on, now.
Q: I’m the Commissioner for my fantasy football league. Where do I send in my resume to replace Goodell? Seriously, I think I can be a better commissioner at this point.
—Stephen, Covina
You wouldn't. Seriously. Being a commissioner is fucking hard. It's practically guaranteed you'd end up doing one of these three things:
1) Being an incredibly weak, spineless commish, and obeying the commands given to you by the owners and the players;
2) Literally doing nothing; or
3) Trying to implement some stupid idealistic fan idea for how you think the league would be better and either driving the NFL into the ground or (more likely) getting yourself instantly fired.
Q: Will we look back at the Ray Rice incident as the beginning of the end of the dominance of football’s reign as top sport?
—Sandy Hartwiger
No. What's going to replace it? The NBA is still WAY more corrupt and has even more pimples than the NFL. The MLB doesn't have the appeal. The NHL is too Canadian. And as for the MLS... well, Americans still hate soccer, as much as the hipsters try to disagree. Besides, this isn't even the worst thing that's ever happened in the NFL. Adrian Peterson isn't even the worst thing that's happened. I can't count on one hand the number of times an NFL player (current or former) has fucking KILLED someone in my lifetime. If we're just looking at convictions (for manslaughter and up), we've got Josh Brent, Rae Carruth, Dwayne Goodrich, Leonard Little, Eric Naposki, and Donte Stallworth. If we're counting alleged murders, we've also got Ray Lewis, Marvin Harrison, OJ Simpson, and Aaron Hernandez, to name a few extremely high-profile examples. Then you've got your sexual assault enthusiasts (Dave Meggett, Nate Webster, Keith Wright, the great Lawrence Taylor, and allegedly Ben Roethlisberger), your drug traffickers (Darryl Henley, who in a real-life twist also fucking hired contract killers to murder the judge and a witness in his case; Travis Henry; Sam Hurd; Johnny Jolly; Ryan Leaf, who wasn't actually distributing (everyone else on this list was) but whom I'm including because, well, he's fucking Ryan Leaf; Jamal Lewis; Bam Morris; Nate Newton; and Austin Scott), and your dog-fighters (Michael Vick, naturally). Some of those names are BIG, and some of those events happened while these players were very active, famous NFL stars. Rice is not going to be the tipping point. Probably.
Q: The NBA seems to be an overwhelming winner of the TMZ-Rice scandal. The Levenson fiasco, which would have been the NBA’s second racist owner crisis in about four months, was almost completely buried, right at the time when the NBA seems to be hammering out the terms for its next TV deal. Is there any chance that Adam Silver and the NBA leaked the Ray Rice video to TMZ?
—George B., Cleveland, Ohio
No. Don't be an idiot.
Q: Why aren’t other players like Greg Hardy or Ray McDonald also being suspended? Does it need to be caught on tape so that it looks bad enough for the league to act? Greg Hardy not only committed domestic violence, but had a pile of guns big enough to throw someone on to. The message I’ve gotten from the NFL is not “Don’t hit your wife,” but “Don’t be dumb enough to get caught on tape.”
—Ryan L., Connecticut
Remember when we talked about how it's almost always in the NFL's best interest to brush any bad things its players do under the rug? And how the least punishment they can dole out while still avoiding bad press is the best thing for the league's profits? And how Big Business (and don't be a fool, the NFL is Big Business) is inherently amoral? Yeah, that.
[We're skipping the stupid clip question-that-isn't-a-question.]
Q: Like Tess told everyone in Ocean’s 11? “You of all people should know Terry, in your hotel [casino], there’s always someone watching.” When did that movie come out? 2001! Here’s another attack ad slogan for you: “ROGER GOODELL — THE GUY WHO TOOK ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AWAY FROM OCEANS 11!”
—Michael G, Richmond, VA
Oh, Simmons. You and your pathetic dependence on pop culture references to stay relatable.
Q: I believe the biggest takeaway from the Ray Rice fiasco is how easy it now is to determine which journalists are in bed with the league and which aren’t?
—Ryan Kiefer, New York
The biggest takeaway is actually how the public is suddenly starting to notice--and care--when players do bad things. Weird.
Q: Would you please start calling Goodell “Eggo?” Tired of this waffler.
—Ethan, Rowlett, TX
What exactly is he waffling on? If we consider Goodell to be an amoral entity who exists for the sole purpose of maximizing his league's profits, and if we assume that prior to a few days ago he had no knowledge that the Peterson tape would air, then he's handled this situation perfectly. And since "an amoral entity..." is pretty much what he is... Goodell's handled this situation perfectly. With respect to the financial interests of himself and his billionaire owners (and I mean "owners" in more than one sense). The correct move (from this perspective) at first was to bury the story, because Rice is profitable. The correct move when Goodell learned the story was coming out was to try to beat it to the presses and run damage control. True, with perfect future knowledge he could have punished Rice sufficiently from the get-go, but if the tape HADN'T come out, that would have been a terrible move. Are you mad at the guy for not being prescient? That seems unfair. (Or are you mad at him for being the figurehead for an amoral business conglomerate? Because at that point I feel like you're just being naive.)
Seriously, do you people actually think that Goodell, individually, is responsible for the apparent moral bankruptcy of the league and its players? Seriously? You think that if they find the right commissioner, their Adam Silver (whom everyone seems to actually believe is this basketball paladin who acts morally because he's just a moral person, rather than the obvious, true explanation, which is that he's smart and he realizes that to take firm action toward "justice" on the first scandal of his career is by far the best thing he can do to differentiate himself from Stern and thus gain popularity), then the NFL will magically become a paradise where nobody murders anyone or rapes anyone or beats their wives or children and CTE doesn't exist and nobody gets a concussion ever again and your team wins the Super Bowl every year into eternity? You honestly think Goodell is the problem? Come on. Goodell is the symptom. The problem, and I mean this in the nicest way, is us. It's that we watch football. Seriously. We turn the NFL into this massively profitable entity, and a natural side-effect of this process is that guys like Ray Rice get protected by the league, because guess what? Ray Rice sells jerseys, and he sells tickets, and he sells ads. If you want the NFL to stop being evil, you and everyone else are going to have to stop watching football, so that the NFL ceases to exist. Which is never going to happen. Sorry.
Q: Add this to the list of Roger Goodell’s horseshit resume: he can’t even get the announcers of his own league to correctly name the product of their $400 Million (not an exaggeration) sponsor. How hard is it to tell make sure the producer at every network knows the name of their sponsors? He couldn’t even just send out a memo with the words, “MICROSOFT SURFACE” over and over again?
—EJ, Seattle
Wait, seriously? If I went through YOUR life and YOUR career and listed all the things YOU'VE fucked up, I bet you billion-dollar warships to donuts it'd be longer than Goodell's. He's fucked up a lot, and he absolutely deserves blame and derision for his handling of the Ray Rice situation (speaking now as the moral individual that I am, and not as the devil's advocate), but don't fucking needle him for screwing up product placement. For Christ's sake.
Q: How is it possible that Roger Goodell cannot be fired? Would there be any better possible move than replacing him with Condoleezza Rice. How can you top replacing a privileged buffoon oligarch with a highly qualified African-American woman who has publicly stated that running the N.F.L would be dream job?
—Josh, Indianapolis
Oh look, a kneejerk reaction. He's not getting fired. And Condoleezza Rice isn't remotely qualified to commission a major sports league. God.
Q: Cowherd was discussing Playmakers on ESPN Radio today. I remembered the name but forgot what the show was about. While researching, I stumbled upon your 2003 review. This was an actual quote from you: “Playmakers never seems totally believable; it’s like a distorted, over-the-top version of the NFL. For instance, Episode No. 2 revolves entirely around painkillers, crack, steroids, and players beating drug tests by injecting clean urine into their (expletives) with a catheter. Apparently strippers, lap dances, date rape and abortions are scheduled for Episode No. 3.” Isn’t it unbelievable that in 2003 you (and society in general) thought the above episode plots were unbelievable for NFL players? Damn.
—Jason, Atlanta
This never happened. I never said that. What are you talking about?
(Also, in response to Simmons's response to this question: HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU BLAMING GOODELL FOR PLAYERS USING DRUGS??? "Hey Goodell, nice job singlehandedly creating the 2000's rap culture that glorifies drug use, extravagant parties, and strippers. Oh and thanks for killing Biggie and Pac, you dick.")
Q: Do you remember the show Playmakers, which reportedly was cancelled at the request of the NFL? In one season, the show dealt with steroid use, a gay football player, and a domestic violence incident involving a running back. In one season! Was that the most realistic sports show ever (other than the pick-up game in the parking lot outside the night club)?! That has to surpass anything The White Shadow put together.
—Mike L, Oakland, CA
I don't remember that show. And that's the only question in your email.
Q: After seeing the Ray Rice video online, then hearing the NFL state that they did not see the video until TMZ put in online, I got to thinking — what are the 10 biggest lies of all time? In no particular order:
1. “It’s not me. It’s you.”
2. “There are no soldiers inside of that giant wooden horse.”
3. “Your money is safe with Bernie Madoff.”
4. “I’m searching for the real killers.”
5. “At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth.”
6. “Yes, that feels good.”
7. “I. Did. Not. Have. Sexual. Relations. With. That. Woman.”
8. “There are Weapons of Mass Distruction in Iraq.”
9. “Welcome aboard the Titanic. Yes, this boat is unsinkable.”
10. “We requested from law enforcement any and all information about the incident, including the video from inside the elevator. That video was not made available to us and no one in our office has seen it until today.”
—Dave C., Melrose, MA
You got that first one wrong. And the eighth one. I don't think that ninth one ever happened. So you get a C-minus. You're like George W. Bush in college. You proud of yourself?
Q: I have two daughters: a one-month old and a two-year old. In the first year of my older daughter’s life she donned a Flacco jersey, learned to say ” boo” at the mention of the word “Steelers”, and watched the Ravens win the Super Bowl. The following year (before the 2013 season) she received a Ray Rice jersey which still fits her as we enter her third Ravens season. What do I do? Can she wear it? If I’m in public or at a football party will people think I’m a horrible father — even fellow Ravens fans? Keep in mind that, as with the Flacco jersey, the Rice jersey is scheduled to be a hand-me-down for the current one-month old daughter when her time comes, and that I’m kind of cheap. As you can see, the fallout from the Rice spectacle ranges far and wide.
—Stephen S., Washington, DC
You don't want your daughter to get teased and berated. Probably. I mean, maybe you do. ADRIAN. Buy a new damn jersey.
Aaand we're skipping the last question because it's not a question.
God, apparently Roger Goodell and domestic abuse really make my cynical side come out. Huh. I should probably clarify here for the less reading-comprehension-inclined viewers that I am in fact opposed to domestic abuse and I think Goodell's handling of this whole situation was very poor. In case that wasn't obvious. Peace.
Q: Why is TMZ doing a better investigation into Ray Rice than the NFL?
—Patrick, Rockford
TMZ is actually a powerful investigative force, while the NFL is a sports league. It shouldn't be surprising when the NEWS website, which by the way has broken (and investigated) a TON of other stories, performs better in the department than the league whose only job is, you know, to play football. It's not even unprecedented for a 'news' entity to perform better than a capital-n News entity regarding a major sports scandal -- remember when Deadspin broke the Manti Te'o story? Seriously, remember that story?? That was one of the greatest moments in Notre Dame--nay, in football--nay, in human--history. And that was Deadspin, which I think is supposed to be a joke. TMZ is a real news entity. It's weird that you're surprised by this. You're weird.
Q: So I have to wait for someone Goodell hired to find out if Goodell is lying? I have no reason to think the AP report isn’t true, and for owners to stand by Goodell because he’s made them enough money is terrible.
—Lee Brewer, Los Angeles
Um... Are you new to professional sports? This shit happens ALL THE TIME. Remember how Ford pardoned Nixon? Same basic idea. In certain jobs, there's a threshold for what you can do, and if you stay below it, you'll never, ever be punished for your actions (outside of some bad press and maybe an early retirement). In the Presidency it's so high that no one's found the ceiling yet. (Then again no President has actually done anything that bad, so let's wait and see if President Jeb Bush ends up hypothetically killing a stripper or something.) In the commissionerships of major American sports leagues, it is at least high enough to excuse:
- Colluding with an owner to steal a franchise and move it across the country, then do the commissioner equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and humming when someone points to the very public evidence of your corruption and asks you what's up.
- Possibly fixing the draft lottery, and responding to questions about the legitimacy of the process by refusing to show anyone the lottery from that point forward (because transparency is way less legitimate than obscurity).
- Brushing the single most egregious instance of referee corruption in American sports history under the rug and entirely failing to investigate said referee's claims that many other referees were doing the same thing.
- Abusing your power, going against your word, and kowtowing to two relatively weak owners when they ask you to veto a trade agreed to by two teams, never mind the MASSIVE conflict of interest that arises as a result of the fact that 1) you own one of the teams, and 2) the people asking you to do this are, by definition, massively biased with respect to the trade. In his temporary defense, said commissioner DID acknowledge the conflict of interest when he agreed not to exercise his power in regards to any trade involving the team he owned. However, he did, of course, immediately go against this pledge and directly exercise his power in the least legitimate way possible.
These aren't hypotheticals. These are things that David Stern did. There are more. The point is that major American sports are multi-billion dollar industries, and that money goes to--guess who--the fucking owners (and the commissioner. Guess how much money Roger Goodell is worth? I'll give you a hint: It's several orders of magnitude more than you). Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Well, Goodell is powerful as fuck, and he's pretty goddamn well corrupt. Just like every commissioner ever. Get over it.
Q: Will we end up calling the NFL’s new domestic violence policy “The Ray Rice Rule?”
—Joseph, VA Beach
I doubt it. Who wants to immortalize that guy?
Q: Why did it take the TMZ videotape to make this incident become “intolerable” and “outrageous” to the NFL and especially the Ravens? From what I have read and heard, Ray Rice never lied about what happened in the elevator. Yet, the Ravens stood by Rice, called him a good man, held a press conference in which he apologized to everybody but his wife, tweeted her apology for, I guess, allowing herself to be hit and knocked unconscious, and even implied that Ray had some justification for what happened. So if Rice told them what happened and he was still a “good guy,” somebody the Ravens were willing to stand behind, and somebody who deserved only a limited suspension from the NFL, why is he now not that same guy? The Ravens and NFL were willing to embrace the man right up until public opinion made that a bad business move. It’s jaded and it’s insulting and it needs to be called out. The NFL and Ravens (and pretty much every media outlet) didn’t screw up by not finding the videotape; they screwed up by never realizing that what happened in that elevator is unacceptable and intolerable regardless of whether a video exists or not. That’s where the focus should be, right?
—Erica Phillips, Boise, Idaho
Well, yeah. That's the whole controversy. We already knew what Rice did, as did the owners and the commissioner and the team. It's just now that the video has hit the web that the people are outraged, and the commissioner and the team are frantically trying to backpedal and pretend they were outraged from the get-go. Which, of course, they weren't, because Ray Rice is a valuable asset to both parties and they would rather have him around than lose him. This just in: Big Business is not a moral entity. Welcome to America.
Q: If Goodell played the President on 24, would he take Jack Bauer off the job for no good reason, let the bomb go off then deny it’s going off, or hire a second terrorist group to purposefully stop so people would forget about the first one?
—Max, Cleveland
I'm 99% sure that all those things actually happened on 24. Goodell wouldn't even be the worst President on the show. Or in real life, for that matter.
Q: Why can’t the NFL create an ESPN special to announce the suspensions from every offseason? Run it during early July and the dream of owning the whole year is solved. Get the fans involved by having Goodell let fans vote a player to get more or less via Twitter. The world needs this.
—Patrick, Minneapolis
This is a weird idea. Why is this even in the mailbag? This is like a joke, like maybe one you'd say to your buddies if you were trying really hard to impress them, except that it's completely without any semblance of humor.
Q: I can’t wait until next month when the league requires its players to wear pink, because Roger Goodell really cares about women’s health.
—Alex Hensel, Denver
Yep. The league is hypocritical. Um... Not sure what response you're looking for.
Q: Please answer this in your column. Do you believe Ray Rice should lose his football career?
—Sarah, East Lansing
I want to refuse to answer this question just on principle in reaction to that first sentence. Also because I don't want to actually answer it. But here's the question as I'm reading it: It's not "do you think Rice will lose his career," and it's not "if it was up to you, would Rice lose his career." It's "from an abstract moral perspective, do Rice's actions merit a lifetime ban from the league?" And the answer, regrettably, is no. If he goes to jail (which he won't) and pays his debt to society (which he won't), he should be allowed back in the league. That doesn't make what he did any less disgusting or deplorable, and if it was up to me he'd never play another down in his life. But the NFL's role is not to be the universal morality police (obviously), and if they refuse to let him play again it WON'T be because what he did was awful (even though it was), it will be because the bad press generated by his presence will cost them more money than his performance will bring to the league. If you honestly think it's not about this, refer back to my answer to the really long question from Erica.
Q: Does Goodell’s blown cover-up of the Rice tape finally give credence to the conspiracy theorists (like myself) that believe the Spygate tapes were so egregious, he destroyed them to save the face of the NFL brand? Remember, this is a man so drunk with power, he thought the Rice tape wouldn’t surface.
—Connor, Pittsburgh, PA
This has always been a possibility. But Spygate was never as big a deal as people made it out to be. Remember what happened immediately after the scandal? When the Patriots went on a tear the likes of which the league had never seen, despite losing the ostensible advantage of their videotapes? People need to stop bitching about Spygate. It's deep in the past, and it probably didn't have that big an impact on the outcome of the games. The Saints' Bountygate scandal was way (way way) worse and everyone basically forgot it happened a year later. It's been more than seven years since Spygate. Come on, now.
Q: I’m the Commissioner for my fantasy football league. Where do I send in my resume to replace Goodell? Seriously, I think I can be a better commissioner at this point.
—Stephen, Covina
You wouldn't. Seriously. Being a commissioner is fucking hard. It's practically guaranteed you'd end up doing one of these three things:
1) Being an incredibly weak, spineless commish, and obeying the commands given to you by the owners and the players;
2) Literally doing nothing; or
3) Trying to implement some stupid idealistic fan idea for how you think the league would be better and either driving the NFL into the ground or (more likely) getting yourself instantly fired.
Q: Will we look back at the Ray Rice incident as the beginning of the end of the dominance of football’s reign as top sport?
—Sandy Hartwiger
No. What's going to replace it? The NBA is still WAY more corrupt and has even more pimples than the NFL. The MLB doesn't have the appeal. The NHL is too Canadian. And as for the MLS... well, Americans still hate soccer, as much as the hipsters try to disagree. Besides, this isn't even the worst thing that's ever happened in the NFL. Adrian Peterson isn't even the worst thing that's happened. I can't count on one hand the number of times an NFL player (current or former) has fucking KILLED someone in my lifetime. If we're just looking at convictions (for manslaughter and up), we've got Josh Brent, Rae Carruth, Dwayne Goodrich, Leonard Little, Eric Naposki, and Donte Stallworth. If we're counting alleged murders, we've also got Ray Lewis, Marvin Harrison, OJ Simpson, and Aaron Hernandez, to name a few extremely high-profile examples. Then you've got your sexual assault enthusiasts (Dave Meggett, Nate Webster, Keith Wright, the great Lawrence Taylor, and allegedly Ben Roethlisberger), your drug traffickers (Darryl Henley, who in a real-life twist also fucking hired contract killers to murder the judge and a witness in his case; Travis Henry; Sam Hurd; Johnny Jolly; Ryan Leaf, who wasn't actually distributing (everyone else on this list was) but whom I'm including because, well, he's fucking Ryan Leaf; Jamal Lewis; Bam Morris; Nate Newton; and Austin Scott), and your dog-fighters (Michael Vick, naturally). Some of those names are BIG, and some of those events happened while these players were very active, famous NFL stars. Rice is not going to be the tipping point. Probably.
Q: The NBA seems to be an overwhelming winner of the TMZ-Rice scandal. The Levenson fiasco, which would have been the NBA’s second racist owner crisis in about four months, was almost completely buried, right at the time when the NBA seems to be hammering out the terms for its next TV deal. Is there any chance that Adam Silver and the NBA leaked the Ray Rice video to TMZ?
—George B., Cleveland, Ohio
No. Don't be an idiot.
Q: Why aren’t other players like Greg Hardy or Ray McDonald also being suspended? Does it need to be caught on tape so that it looks bad enough for the league to act? Greg Hardy not only committed domestic violence, but had a pile of guns big enough to throw someone on to. The message I’ve gotten from the NFL is not “Don’t hit your wife,” but “Don’t be dumb enough to get caught on tape.”
—Ryan L., Connecticut
Remember when we talked about how it's almost always in the NFL's best interest to brush any bad things its players do under the rug? And how the least punishment they can dole out while still avoiding bad press is the best thing for the league's profits? And how Big Business (and don't be a fool, the NFL is Big Business) is inherently amoral? Yeah, that.
[We're skipping the stupid clip question-that-isn't-a-question.]
Q: Like Tess told everyone in Ocean’s 11? “You of all people should know Terry, in your hotel [casino], there’s always someone watching.” When did that movie come out? 2001! Here’s another attack ad slogan for you: “ROGER GOODELL — THE GUY WHO TOOK ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AWAY FROM OCEANS 11!”
—Michael G, Richmond, VA
Oh, Simmons. You and your pathetic dependence on pop culture references to stay relatable.
Q: I believe the biggest takeaway from the Ray Rice fiasco is how easy it now is to determine which journalists are in bed with the league and which aren’t?
—Ryan Kiefer, New York
The biggest takeaway is actually how the public is suddenly starting to notice--and care--when players do bad things. Weird.
Q: Would you please start calling Goodell “Eggo?” Tired of this waffler.
—Ethan, Rowlett, TX
What exactly is he waffling on? If we consider Goodell to be an amoral entity who exists for the sole purpose of maximizing his league's profits, and if we assume that prior to a few days ago he had no knowledge that the Peterson tape would air, then he's handled this situation perfectly. And since "an amoral entity..." is pretty much what he is... Goodell's handled this situation perfectly. With respect to the financial interests of himself and his billionaire owners (and I mean "owners" in more than one sense). The correct move (from this perspective) at first was to bury the story, because Rice is profitable. The correct move when Goodell learned the story was coming out was to try to beat it to the presses and run damage control. True, with perfect future knowledge he could have punished Rice sufficiently from the get-go, but if the tape HADN'T come out, that would have been a terrible move. Are you mad at the guy for not being prescient? That seems unfair. (Or are you mad at him for being the figurehead for an amoral business conglomerate? Because at that point I feel like you're just being naive.)
Seriously, do you people actually think that Goodell, individually, is responsible for the apparent moral bankruptcy of the league and its players? Seriously? You think that if they find the right commissioner, their Adam Silver (whom everyone seems to actually believe is this basketball paladin who acts morally because he's just a moral person, rather than the obvious, true explanation, which is that he's smart and he realizes that to take firm action toward "justice" on the first scandal of his career is by far the best thing he can do to differentiate himself from Stern and thus gain popularity), then the NFL will magically become a paradise where nobody murders anyone or rapes anyone or beats their wives or children and CTE doesn't exist and nobody gets a concussion ever again and your team wins the Super Bowl every year into eternity? You honestly think Goodell is the problem? Come on. Goodell is the symptom. The problem, and I mean this in the nicest way, is us. It's that we watch football. Seriously. We turn the NFL into this massively profitable entity, and a natural side-effect of this process is that guys like Ray Rice get protected by the league, because guess what? Ray Rice sells jerseys, and he sells tickets, and he sells ads. If you want the NFL to stop being evil, you and everyone else are going to have to stop watching football, so that the NFL ceases to exist. Which is never going to happen. Sorry.
Q: Add this to the list of Roger Goodell’s horseshit resume: he can’t even get the announcers of his own league to correctly name the product of their $400 Million (not an exaggeration) sponsor. How hard is it to tell make sure the producer at every network knows the name of their sponsors? He couldn’t even just send out a memo with the words, “MICROSOFT SURFACE” over and over again?
—EJ, Seattle
Wait, seriously? If I went through YOUR life and YOUR career and listed all the things YOU'VE fucked up, I bet you billion-dollar warships to donuts it'd be longer than Goodell's. He's fucked up a lot, and he absolutely deserves blame and derision for his handling of the Ray Rice situation (speaking now as the moral individual that I am, and not as the devil's advocate), but don't fucking needle him for screwing up product placement. For Christ's sake.
Q: How is it possible that Roger Goodell cannot be fired? Would there be any better possible move than replacing him with Condoleezza Rice. How can you top replacing a privileged buffoon oligarch with a highly qualified African-American woman who has publicly stated that running the N.F.L would be dream job?
—Josh, Indianapolis
Oh look, a kneejerk reaction. He's not getting fired. And Condoleezza Rice isn't remotely qualified to commission a major sports league. God.
Q: Cowherd was discussing Playmakers on ESPN Radio today. I remembered the name but forgot what the show was about. While researching, I stumbled upon your 2003 review. This was an actual quote from you: “Playmakers never seems totally believable; it’s like a distorted, over-the-top version of the NFL. For instance, Episode No. 2 revolves entirely around painkillers, crack, steroids, and players beating drug tests by injecting clean urine into their (expletives) with a catheter. Apparently strippers, lap dances, date rape and abortions are scheduled for Episode No. 3.” Isn’t it unbelievable that in 2003 you (and society in general) thought the above episode plots were unbelievable for NFL players? Damn.
—Jason, Atlanta
This never happened. I never said that. What are you talking about?
(Also, in response to Simmons's response to this question: HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU BLAMING GOODELL FOR PLAYERS USING DRUGS??? "Hey Goodell, nice job singlehandedly creating the 2000's rap culture that glorifies drug use, extravagant parties, and strippers. Oh and thanks for killing Biggie and Pac, you dick.")
Q: Do you remember the show Playmakers, which reportedly was cancelled at the request of the NFL? In one season, the show dealt with steroid use, a gay football player, and a domestic violence incident involving a running back. In one season! Was that the most realistic sports show ever (other than the pick-up game in the parking lot outside the night club)?! That has to surpass anything The White Shadow put together.
—Mike L, Oakland, CA
I don't remember that show. And that's the only question in your email.
Q: After seeing the Ray Rice video online, then hearing the NFL state that they did not see the video until TMZ put in online, I got to thinking — what are the 10 biggest lies of all time? In no particular order:
1. “It’s not me. It’s you.”
2. “There are no soldiers inside of that giant wooden horse.”
3. “Your money is safe with Bernie Madoff.”
4. “I’m searching for the real killers.”
5. “At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth.”
6. “Yes, that feels good.”
7. “I. Did. Not. Have. Sexual. Relations. With. That. Woman.”
8. “There are Weapons of Mass Distruction in Iraq.”
9. “Welcome aboard the Titanic. Yes, this boat is unsinkable.”
10. “We requested from law enforcement any and all information about the incident, including the video from inside the elevator. That video was not made available to us and no one in our office has seen it until today.”
—Dave C., Melrose, MA
You got that first one wrong. And the eighth one. I don't think that ninth one ever happened. So you get a C-minus. You're like George W. Bush in college. You proud of yourself?
Q: I have two daughters: a one-month old and a two-year old. In the first year of my older daughter’s life she donned a Flacco jersey, learned to say ” boo” at the mention of the word “Steelers”, and watched the Ravens win the Super Bowl. The following year (before the 2013 season) she received a Ray Rice jersey which still fits her as we enter her third Ravens season. What do I do? Can she wear it? If I’m in public or at a football party will people think I’m a horrible father — even fellow Ravens fans? Keep in mind that, as with the Flacco jersey, the Rice jersey is scheduled to be a hand-me-down for the current one-month old daughter when her time comes, and that I’m kind of cheap. As you can see, the fallout from the Rice spectacle ranges far and wide.
—Stephen S., Washington, DC
You don't want your daughter to get teased and berated. Probably. I mean, maybe you do. ADRIAN. Buy a new damn jersey.
Aaand we're skipping the last question because it's not a question.
God, apparently Roger Goodell and domestic abuse really make my cynical side come out. Huh. I should probably clarify here for the less reading-comprehension-inclined viewers that I am in fact opposed to domestic abuse and I think Goodell's handling of this whole situation was very poor. In case that wasn't obvious. Peace.
Friday, September 12, 2014
The Greatest Seasons, Part I: 2006-2007
We watch football to witness greatness. There's a special feeling you get when you know with absolute certainty that you're watching a great player in the very prime of his career. These are the times I've had that feeling.
(A few quick notes: I started watching football toward the end of the 2005 season, so I'm only including seasons from 2006 on. I'm listing them in approximate chronological order, and then approximately by position, but there will be exceptions when I feel like talking about an especially awesome season right off the bat. Aside from the narrative, I've also given each season a (superfluous) "Holy Shit Rating" from 1-5 stars. This rating basically quantifies how exciting and electrifying a given season was. That means that it isn't necessarily reflective of the really great seasons, since it's possible for a relatively non-flashy player (e.g. 2013 JJ Watt) to have an absolutely incredible season, but still not give that electrifying a performance (compared to, say, '07 Randy Moss). The way the scale basically works is as follows:
* - You (being the average football fan) wouldn't have known that this player existed if you didn't read all the analysts (hi) gushing about how fucking amazing he is. Prototype: 2005 Walter Jones.
** - You don't notice this player most of the time, but every now and then he comes up with a huge, noticeable play that you cheer at. Prototype: 2013 JJ Watt.
*** - You see this player do lots of exciting things, but you don't always necessarily watch him when he's on the field. It's negotiable. Prototype: 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson.
**** - You watch this player. Your eyes are locked on this player whenever he touches the ball. But he's not quite at that transcendent level. Still electrifying as hell, but not quite as crucial a guy as the five-star guy. Prototype: 2012 Pre-Injury Percy Harvin.
***** - YOU WATCH THIS PLAYER. Even when he's not touching the ball, you don't give a shit, you're watching him. He is the reason you are watching this game. When he's not on the field, you're tapping your foot and clenching your fist waiting for him to come back on the fucking field. If you had a choice between watching this player touch the ball once and watching the birth of your firstborn child, well, your wife's gonna be goddamn disappointed. Prototype: 2007 Randy Moss.
Note that this is NOT a ranking of how great the season was. ALL of these seasons are easily five stars on the standard "greatness" scale. This is exclusively to measure the excitement produced by each given season. Also, please realize that four stars is outstanding and five stars is virtually unattainable. I'm just now writing this list, so I can't say for sure, but there's a very, very, very good chance that there's only two or three five-star seasons on the list. There are around 22,000 possible seasons that are eligible for this list, including ~10,400 by starters and ~216 by players who were named AP First-Team All Pros, and approximately three of them will receive that five-star rating. THAT'S what five stars means. Anyway, let's begin.)
2006:
LaDainian Tomlinson: 1815 yards, 28 TDs, 5.2 YPA, plus 56 catches for 508 yds and 3 TDs. This was Tomlinson's crazy year. The year before, Seattle's own Shaun Alexander did basically a less impressive version of this (1880/27/5.1 + 15/78/1), and immediately afterward Tomlinson blew him out of the water. Both players had superb lines (Shaun's was led by the GOAT LT, Walter Jones; Steve Hutchinson, the fucking traitor; and Robbie Tobeck, while Tomlinson's was led by Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, and Nick Hardwick) but Alexander's was better. Both players had ridiculously good, stunningly old fullbacks in Mack Strong (34) and Lorenzo Neal (36) respectively, but Tomlinson's was better. (The line matters more.) But the biggest factor that puts Tomlinson over the top is his exceptional receiving line. The gold standard for the receiving RB is '99 Marshall Faulk, who put up 1381/7/5.5 rushing and 87/1048/5 receiving, but Tomlinson comes in just behind him, notching not only his '06 masterpiece but also his fucking absurd 2003 statline: 1645/13/5.3 on the ground plus 100/725/4 through the air. He touched the ball 413 times that season, which I'm willing to bet is the record for carries+receptions (Faulk's best was 410 in '98, and again, he's the gold standard). ***
Devin Hester: 47 punt returns for 600 yds and 3 TDs, 12.8 Y/R. 20 kick returns for 528 yds, 2 TDs, 26.4 Y/R. Plus a missed field goal returned for a TD and a KR for TD in the Super Bowl. Devin Hester in 2006 was hands-down the greatest kick returner I've ever seen, and it's not remotely close. He's one of three players I've witnessed who I feel confident in saying should go down in history as the greatest of all time at his position. (The others are Peyton Manning and Walter Jones. JJ Watt will get there as well, and Rob Gronkowski is easily that good if he can stay healthy.) The REALLY crazy part is that there's a decent argument for Hester as the GOAT at two positions, since PR and KR really are different enough to be considered separate positions. Very few guys can even play both, let alone dominate both like Hester. Watching Hester return balls in the '06 was one of the highlights of my youth. He was pure electricity. That missed field goal, where he walked out of the endzone and then broke it for a TD. That opening kickoff in the Super Bowl, where it felt like everyone in the country knew he was going to take it to the house, and then he did. That game where poor Jeff Wilkins, the Rams' kicker, and his team showed the pinnacle of misplaced hubris and handed Hester four kickoffs, which he promptly turned into 225 yards and two touchdowns. You may not realize this if you didn't watch football back in '06-'07... Hold that thought. *****
2007:
Devin Hester: 42 punt returns for 651 yds and 4 TDs, 15.5 Y/R. 43 kick returns for 934 yards, 2 TDs, 21.7 Y/R. Where was I? You may not realize this if you didn't watch football back in '06-'07, but there was a time when Devin Hester was one of the scariest people in the NFL. (In '06, it was him, hands-down. In '07 he was #2 to Moss.) His prime was short-lived; in 2008, the Bears stupidly decided to try to make him play wide receiver, as if the marginal value he provided as the greatest returner of all time by far wasn't enough, and his returning career took a nosedive before a brief resurgence in '10-'11. But in his prime, he was something truly transcendent. Before the Broncos @ Bears game, Denver punter Todd Sauerbrun famously said, "We're going after it. We're not going to kick away from him." Hester, naturally, returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns (both from Sauerbrun) and singlehandedly won the game for the Bears. As the announcer said after Hester returned his second touchdown, "This is unbelievable. This is unbelievable!" And it was. *****
Tom Brady: 68.9% cmp, 4806 yds, 50 TDs, 8.7% TD%, 8 int, 1.4% int%, 8.3 Y/A, 117.2 PR, 8.88 ANY/A. This is the first truly great QB season I ever saw. Tom Brady started out his career as a little bit of a confusing entity. He won three Super Bowls in his first four years as a starter, but he did so without putting up the same level of stats as his rival Peyton Manning. This is primarily because, until '07, Brady was throwing to the likes of Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Patten, David Givens, Kevin Faulk, Daniel Graham, and Ben Watson. You think I'm cherry-picking names, but those are the Patriots' leading receivers from 2001-2006 (combined). Meanwhile Peyton was throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Marcus Pollard, Brandon Stokley, Edgerrin James, and Dallas Clark. I'm not trying to make an argument in the Brady-Manning debate here (I already came down on the other side of that one, if you weren't paying attention earlier); I'm just saying that Brady, for the first six starting seasons of his career, wasn't working with a lot of talent receivers-wise.
That changed in '07. Prior to the season, the Patriots acquired Wes Welker (who previously had been a mediocre wide receiver and kick/punt returner for the Dolphins), Randy Moss (who had started off his career hot as hell (figuratively speaking) in Minnesota before dropping off the face of the earth in Oakland), Donte Stallworth, and Kelley Washington. The first two panned out in a BIG way, the third one panned out a little, and the fourth one flopped. Brady, meanwhile, put up a season that still stands as one of the greatest of all time. He and the Patriots offense broke dozens of records, blowing teams out left and right en route to the NFL's first ever 16-0 regular season record. Unfortunately, tragically, heart-breakingly, the Patriots lost in the Super Bowl to the New York fucking Giants, and the greatest team season I've ever witnessed came to a catastrophic end. But Brady made a name for himself as one of the greatest QBs of all time, not just based on his postseason performance, but also on his regular-season dominance. ****
Randy Moss: 98 catches, 1493 yards, 23 touchdowns. The Freak. He started his career in Minnesota by catching 69 balls for 1313 yards and 17 TDs, and got better from there. In 2003, he notched one of the all-time greatest seasons ever by a wide receiver, putting up the absolutely comical numbers of 111 catches for 1632 yards and 17 TDs. For six years, he terrorized the league, averaging over 85 catches, nearly 1400 yards, and 13 touchdowns per season. But when he stumbled in '04, the Vikings inexplicably traded him to the Raiders, where he promptly stopped trying. By 2006, the league had nearly forgotten the name Randy Moss, and his menacing silhouette had all but receded into the mist of mythology.
In the 2007 offseason, when the Patriots traded for Moss, people laughed. They thought it was a joke. The same Randy Moss, they quipped, who had topped 1000 yards only once in the past three years, and even then by the narrowest of margins? The same Randy Moss who was 30 and seemed to have lost a step or two, if not three? But there were some, even then, who felt the same primal fear stirring within them that had once driven them to hide behind their couches every time Moss stepped on the field. I was too young to remember Moss back in his golden years, but even then, at the tender age of 14, I knew the importance of a quarterback to a wide receiver, and I knew that Brady had the potential to turn Moss into something truly devastating.
It started with a bang. The Pats blew out the Jets 38-14, and Moss caught 9 balls for 183 yards and a touchdown. Immediately, it was clear that the Freak was back. Next game: 38-14 Pats, 105/2 for the Freak. Next game: 38-7 Pats, 115 and 2. Next game: 34-13 Pats, 102/2 for Moss. It continued in this fashion: 34-17 Pats, 48-27, 49-28, 52-7, and touchdown after touchdown for Randy. In the highlight of the season, Moss caught 10 balls for 128 yards and 4 touchdowns (in the first half), in a 56-10 blowout of the Bills. In the end, it was sixteen wins for the Patriots, 589 points for the offense, and 23 touchdowns for Randy, breaking Jerry Rice's then-20-year-old record.
The Patriots, of course, lost in the Super Bowl, and Moss was good but never quite the same again. But in 2007, for a single magical season, the Freak returned, and he created a masterpiece. *****
Bob Sanders: 3.5 sacks, 2 ints, 6 PD. The stats don't even begin to describe the level of dominance that Bob Sanders displayed when he was on the field. He played eight seasons, and played six or fewer games in six of them. In 2005, he played 14 games and was named First-Team All-Pro and probably deserved DPOY (it went to Urlacher). In 2007, he played 15 games, was FTAP, and deservingly won DPOY. This is basically equivalent to the crazy Kurt Warner stat, where whenever he started a full season his team made it to the Super Bowl, and whenever he made it to the Super Bowl he threw for more yards than any other quarterback to ever make it to the Super Bowl. The difference was that Sanders was a lot better, but the effect was similar: When Sanders was out, the Colts defense was middling-to-bad. They couldn't stop the pass or the run effectively. But when Sanders took the field, suddenly the Colts were unbeatable in both respects.
Here's an imperfect estimate of Sanders's impact on the Colts' defense, which will nevertheless give you an idea of just how great he was: In 2004, when Sanders didn't play, the Colts defense (in PPG allowed) ranked 19th. In '05 he played and they ranked 2nd. In '06 he was injured and they ranked 23rd. In '07 he came back in peak form, and they ranked 1st (and won the Super Bowl). And in '08, with Sanders once more missing more than half the season, they dropped back down to 7th. That kind of an impact is virtually unparalleled in football history. That's the greatness of Bob Sanders. **
This is the end of Part I. There are a few more players from '07 I want to write about (especially Walter Jones), but I'll get to them in the start of Part II. Expect me. Like you expect Jesus to come back. Expect me. I'm coming.
(A few quick notes: I started watching football toward the end of the 2005 season, so I'm only including seasons from 2006 on. I'm listing them in approximate chronological order, and then approximately by position, but there will be exceptions when I feel like talking about an especially awesome season right off the bat. Aside from the narrative, I've also given each season a (superfluous) "Holy Shit Rating" from 1-5 stars. This rating basically quantifies how exciting and electrifying a given season was. That means that it isn't necessarily reflective of the really great seasons, since it's possible for a relatively non-flashy player (e.g. 2013 JJ Watt) to have an absolutely incredible season, but still not give that electrifying a performance (compared to, say, '07 Randy Moss). The way the scale basically works is as follows:
* - You (being the average football fan) wouldn't have known that this player existed if you didn't read all the analysts (hi) gushing about how fucking amazing he is. Prototype: 2005 Walter Jones.
** - You don't notice this player most of the time, but every now and then he comes up with a huge, noticeable play that you cheer at. Prototype: 2013 JJ Watt.
*** - You see this player do lots of exciting things, but you don't always necessarily watch him when he's on the field. It's negotiable. Prototype: 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson.
**** - You watch this player. Your eyes are locked on this player whenever he touches the ball. But he's not quite at that transcendent level. Still electrifying as hell, but not quite as crucial a guy as the five-star guy. Prototype: 2012 Pre-Injury Percy Harvin.
***** - YOU WATCH THIS PLAYER. Even when he's not touching the ball, you don't give a shit, you're watching him. He is the reason you are watching this game. When he's not on the field, you're tapping your foot and clenching your fist waiting for him to come back on the fucking field. If you had a choice between watching this player touch the ball once and watching the birth of your firstborn child, well, your wife's gonna be goddamn disappointed. Prototype: 2007 Randy Moss.
Note that this is NOT a ranking of how great the season was. ALL of these seasons are easily five stars on the standard "greatness" scale. This is exclusively to measure the excitement produced by each given season. Also, please realize that four stars is outstanding and five stars is virtually unattainable. I'm just now writing this list, so I can't say for sure, but there's a very, very, very good chance that there's only two or three five-star seasons on the list. There are around 22,000 possible seasons that are eligible for this list, including ~10,400 by starters and ~216 by players who were named AP First-Team All Pros, and approximately three of them will receive that five-star rating. THAT'S what five stars means. Anyway, let's begin.)
2006:
LaDainian Tomlinson: 1815 yards, 28 TDs, 5.2 YPA, plus 56 catches for 508 yds and 3 TDs. This was Tomlinson's crazy year. The year before, Seattle's own Shaun Alexander did basically a less impressive version of this (1880/27/5.1 + 15/78/1), and immediately afterward Tomlinson blew him out of the water. Both players had superb lines (Shaun's was led by the GOAT LT, Walter Jones; Steve Hutchinson, the fucking traitor; and Robbie Tobeck, while Tomlinson's was led by Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, and Nick Hardwick) but Alexander's was better. Both players had ridiculously good, stunningly old fullbacks in Mack Strong (34) and Lorenzo Neal (36) respectively, but Tomlinson's was better. (The line matters more.) But the biggest factor that puts Tomlinson over the top is his exceptional receiving line. The gold standard for the receiving RB is '99 Marshall Faulk, who put up 1381/7/5.5 rushing and 87/1048/5 receiving, but Tomlinson comes in just behind him, notching not only his '06 masterpiece but also his fucking absurd 2003 statline: 1645/13/5.3 on the ground plus 100/725/4 through the air. He touched the ball 413 times that season, which I'm willing to bet is the record for carries+receptions (Faulk's best was 410 in '98, and again, he's the gold standard). ***
Devin Hester: 47 punt returns for 600 yds and 3 TDs, 12.8 Y/R. 20 kick returns for 528 yds, 2 TDs, 26.4 Y/R. Plus a missed field goal returned for a TD and a KR for TD in the Super Bowl. Devin Hester in 2006 was hands-down the greatest kick returner I've ever seen, and it's not remotely close. He's one of three players I've witnessed who I feel confident in saying should go down in history as the greatest of all time at his position. (The others are Peyton Manning and Walter Jones. JJ Watt will get there as well, and Rob Gronkowski is easily that good if he can stay healthy.) The REALLY crazy part is that there's a decent argument for Hester as the GOAT at two positions, since PR and KR really are different enough to be considered separate positions. Very few guys can even play both, let alone dominate both like Hester. Watching Hester return balls in the '06 was one of the highlights of my youth. He was pure electricity. That missed field goal, where he walked out of the endzone and then broke it for a TD. That opening kickoff in the Super Bowl, where it felt like everyone in the country knew he was going to take it to the house, and then he did. That game where poor Jeff Wilkins, the Rams' kicker, and his team showed the pinnacle of misplaced hubris and handed Hester four kickoffs, which he promptly turned into 225 yards and two touchdowns. You may not realize this if you didn't watch football back in '06-'07... Hold that thought. *****
2007:
Devin Hester: 42 punt returns for 651 yds and 4 TDs, 15.5 Y/R. 43 kick returns for 934 yards, 2 TDs, 21.7 Y/R. Where was I? You may not realize this if you didn't watch football back in '06-'07, but there was a time when Devin Hester was one of the scariest people in the NFL. (In '06, it was him, hands-down. In '07 he was #2 to Moss.) His prime was short-lived; in 2008, the Bears stupidly decided to try to make him play wide receiver, as if the marginal value he provided as the greatest returner of all time by far wasn't enough, and his returning career took a nosedive before a brief resurgence in '10-'11. But in his prime, he was something truly transcendent. Before the Broncos @ Bears game, Denver punter Todd Sauerbrun famously said, "We're going after it. We're not going to kick away from him." Hester, naturally, returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns (both from Sauerbrun) and singlehandedly won the game for the Bears. As the announcer said after Hester returned his second touchdown, "This is unbelievable. This is unbelievable!" And it was. *****
Tom Brady: 68.9% cmp, 4806 yds, 50 TDs, 8.7% TD%, 8 int, 1.4% int%, 8.3 Y/A, 117.2 PR, 8.88 ANY/A. This is the first truly great QB season I ever saw. Tom Brady started out his career as a little bit of a confusing entity. He won three Super Bowls in his first four years as a starter, but he did so without putting up the same level of stats as his rival Peyton Manning. This is primarily because, until '07, Brady was throwing to the likes of Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Patten, David Givens, Kevin Faulk, Daniel Graham, and Ben Watson. You think I'm cherry-picking names, but those are the Patriots' leading receivers from 2001-2006 (combined). Meanwhile Peyton was throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Marcus Pollard, Brandon Stokley, Edgerrin James, and Dallas Clark. I'm not trying to make an argument in the Brady-Manning debate here (I already came down on the other side of that one, if you weren't paying attention earlier); I'm just saying that Brady, for the first six starting seasons of his career, wasn't working with a lot of talent receivers-wise.
That changed in '07. Prior to the season, the Patriots acquired Wes Welker (who previously had been a mediocre wide receiver and kick/punt returner for the Dolphins), Randy Moss (who had started off his career hot as hell (figuratively speaking) in Minnesota before dropping off the face of the earth in Oakland), Donte Stallworth, and Kelley Washington. The first two panned out in a BIG way, the third one panned out a little, and the fourth one flopped. Brady, meanwhile, put up a season that still stands as one of the greatest of all time. He and the Patriots offense broke dozens of records, blowing teams out left and right en route to the NFL's first ever 16-0 regular season record. Unfortunately, tragically, heart-breakingly, the Patriots lost in the Super Bowl to the New York fucking Giants, and the greatest team season I've ever witnessed came to a catastrophic end. But Brady made a name for himself as one of the greatest QBs of all time, not just based on his postseason performance, but also on his regular-season dominance. ****
Randy Moss: 98 catches, 1493 yards, 23 touchdowns. The Freak. He started his career in Minnesota by catching 69 balls for 1313 yards and 17 TDs, and got better from there. In 2003, he notched one of the all-time greatest seasons ever by a wide receiver, putting up the absolutely comical numbers of 111 catches for 1632 yards and 17 TDs. For six years, he terrorized the league, averaging over 85 catches, nearly 1400 yards, and 13 touchdowns per season. But when he stumbled in '04, the Vikings inexplicably traded him to the Raiders, where he promptly stopped trying. By 2006, the league had nearly forgotten the name Randy Moss, and his menacing silhouette had all but receded into the mist of mythology.
In the 2007 offseason, when the Patriots traded for Moss, people laughed. They thought it was a joke. The same Randy Moss, they quipped, who had topped 1000 yards only once in the past three years, and even then by the narrowest of margins? The same Randy Moss who was 30 and seemed to have lost a step or two, if not three? But there were some, even then, who felt the same primal fear stirring within them that had once driven them to hide behind their couches every time Moss stepped on the field. I was too young to remember Moss back in his golden years, but even then, at the tender age of 14, I knew the importance of a quarterback to a wide receiver, and I knew that Brady had the potential to turn Moss into something truly devastating.
It started with a bang. The Pats blew out the Jets 38-14, and Moss caught 9 balls for 183 yards and a touchdown. Immediately, it was clear that the Freak was back. Next game: 38-14 Pats, 105/2 for the Freak. Next game: 38-7 Pats, 115 and 2. Next game: 34-13 Pats, 102/2 for Moss. It continued in this fashion: 34-17 Pats, 48-27, 49-28, 52-7, and touchdown after touchdown for Randy. In the highlight of the season, Moss caught 10 balls for 128 yards and 4 touchdowns (in the first half), in a 56-10 blowout of the Bills. In the end, it was sixteen wins for the Patriots, 589 points for the offense, and 23 touchdowns for Randy, breaking Jerry Rice's then-20-year-old record.
The Patriots, of course, lost in the Super Bowl, and Moss was good but never quite the same again. But in 2007, for a single magical season, the Freak returned, and he created a masterpiece. *****
Bob Sanders: 3.5 sacks, 2 ints, 6 PD. The stats don't even begin to describe the level of dominance that Bob Sanders displayed when he was on the field. He played eight seasons, and played six or fewer games in six of them. In 2005, he played 14 games and was named First-Team All-Pro and probably deserved DPOY (it went to Urlacher). In 2007, he played 15 games, was FTAP, and deservingly won DPOY. This is basically equivalent to the crazy Kurt Warner stat, where whenever he started a full season his team made it to the Super Bowl, and whenever he made it to the Super Bowl he threw for more yards than any other quarterback to ever make it to the Super Bowl. The difference was that Sanders was a lot better, but the effect was similar: When Sanders was out, the Colts defense was middling-to-bad. They couldn't stop the pass or the run effectively. But when Sanders took the field, suddenly the Colts were unbeatable in both respects.
Here's an imperfect estimate of Sanders's impact on the Colts' defense, which will nevertheless give you an idea of just how great he was: In 2004, when Sanders didn't play, the Colts defense (in PPG allowed) ranked 19th. In '05 he played and they ranked 2nd. In '06 he was injured and they ranked 23rd. In '07 he came back in peak form, and they ranked 1st (and won the Super Bowl). And in '08, with Sanders once more missing more than half the season, they dropped back down to 7th. That kind of an impact is virtually unparalleled in football history. That's the greatness of Bob Sanders. **
This is the end of Part I. There are a few more players from '07 I want to write about (especially Walter Jones), but I'll get to them in the start of Part II. Expect me. Like you expect Jesus to come back. Expect me. I'm coming.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
NFL Week 2 Predictions
This won't be a regular thing. Don't get used to it. I'll list each game by the winner, and whether it'll be close or not. If I say it'll be close then my guess is less likely to be accurate. Usually.
Steelers @ Ravens: Ravens, not close. This one already happened. I'm fucking prescient. Expecting a good game from Flacco (think 109.3 PR).
Seahawks @ Chargers: Seahawks, not close. Oh look it's a real prediction! But not a hard one.
Patriots @ Vikings: Patriots, close. True, the Patriots just lost to the Dolphins in catastrophic fashion, and true, the Vikings just shit on the Rams. But it's not hard to shit on the Rams, and the Dolphins game was an anomaly. Or, you know, Tom Brady suddenly went from a top-five QB in the NFL to worse than Andrew Luck. The Vikings won't get the same kind of pressure that Cameron Wake (not the Dolphins, just Cameron Wake) got against Brady, and that'll be the difference.
Dolphins @ Bills: Dolphins, close. Cameron Wake.
Jaguars @ Redskins: Redskins, not close. Both these teams apparently suck. BUT FUCK IT I STILL BELIEVE IN RGIII!!! I'm too tired to think of a funny nickname for him. Robert... Griffin. The Third. That wasn't funny at all. Fuck off.
Cowboys @ Titans: Cowboys, close. This is probably the wrong choice. But fuck it. I feel like holding your own against San Francisco is way more impressive than dominating Kansas Shitty. Holy God I'm clever.
Cardinals @ Giants: Cardz, not close. The Giants suck more than... um. Name a porn star. I don't watch enough porn and I don't want to date myself and make the Jenna Jameson reference, but I already said Lexi Belle. Stoya? Maybe. But let's go with Sasha Grey. Who's apparently retired??? What kind of shit is this??? And yes, I did just go frantically check Wikipedia to make sure Lexi Belle isn't retired. I have a soft spot for her. And by soft I mean hard. And by spot I mean
Saints @ Browns. Saints, not close. Is this hard? And by this I mean
Falcons @ Bengals. Falcons, close. FUCK IT, I BELIEVE!!!
Lions @ Panthers. Lions, not close. I'm believing a lot recently. The funny thing about football is that there's so much parody (oh wait) that teams that are good in year n aren't necessarily good in year n+1. So the line favors the Panthers even though lions are on average larger than panthers.*
* It's actually hard to determine exactly how much larger lions are on average. The Wikipedia article gives the weight of newborn lions, because anyone ever has wanted to know that, as well as the maximum size (550 lbs), but it doesn't provide an average. Googling "average lion weight" provides the answer of 430 lbs, although the source is dubious and factually disagrees with the answer Google provides, weirdly enough. Panthers are even more complicated, because there's not actually such a thing as a "panther". The genus Panthera includes such big cats (giant kitties) as the tiger, the lion, the jaguar, the leopard, and the snow leopard. The Wikipedia article on "Panther"s redirects to any of a long list of possible candidates, most notably Panthera; its subfamily (parent) Pantherinae; the leopard (which is the African/Asian panther); the cougar/mountain lion (the North/South American panther); the Florida panther (a subspecies of cougar which is found in Florida); the jaguar (South/Central American panther); the black panther (a variant of leopard, jaguar, or cougar); and the white panther (a variant of the same species (plural)).
My best guess is that the Carolina Panthers are named after the black panther, since the cat on the logo is very clearly dark in color and most of the species I listed are not commonly black. Google says that the average (male) panther weighs between 130 and 160 pounds. But I don't know whether the type of panther affects this measurement, and I very much suspect that it does. It's also difficult to determine with any accuracy which type of panther the Carolina Panthers represent. The possibilities include leopard (~130 lbs), cougar (~137 lbs), and jaguar (220 lbs in parts of South America, sometimes larger). So clearly there's at least a little variance. But I think it's safe to assume that the Panthers would be named after a local subspecies. Wikipedia says that "There are no authenticated cases of truly melanistic cougars... [they] have never been photographed or shot in the wild and none has ever been bred." This implies that the Carolina Panthers are almost certainly Jaguars; although it's not outside the realm of possibility that they named their team after an essentially mythical creature (see: Titans, Giants), it's far more likely that they chose to go with the real, local species.
Jaguars (which, according to Wikipedia, kill their prey by biting "directly through the skull... between the ears to deliver a fatal bite to the brain") generally tend to live in the warmer, more humid climates of South and Central America, and are only listed as living in North America due to occasional sightings in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Jaguars (which are the only living, native North American cat that roars) used to have a considerably wider range in the US, almost certainly including Carolina, but as far as I can tell they haven't lived in Carolina in at least 50 years, which makes the name somewhat misleading. But I still think that the "black panther" jaguar is the most likely explanation for the team's mascot.
Now that we know the species, we can make a more accurate estimation of the size, especially relative to the lion. The range given by Wikipedia is 124-211 lbs, although the larger males are listed as being in the range of 350 lbs. To remind you, the average lion is around 430 pounds, while the largest can reach 550 lbs. I could probably find more accurate data by narrowing down the differences in jaguar size by geographic region, but I'm willing to make a ballpark estimate based on these numbers. If we're comparing average size, the lion will have an advantage of 219-306 lbs, while comparing maximum sizes gives us a 200 lb disparity. I think it's reasonable to presume that both sides are presenting a large--albeit not record-setting--specimen of their given species, so let's call it around 225 lbs for the panther and 490 lbs for the lion.** This gives the lion a 265 lb advantage, making it 2.2 times larger than the panther. (This means that if you listed the lion's weight in kg, like a fucking European, and the panther's weight in lbs, like a proud goddamn American, the numbers would look approximately the same.) I use this data to back up my choice of the Lions to win by a large margin.
** My math is as follows: The average lion is 430 and the max is 550. I'll give it half the distance to account for it being the chosen champion, which is 490. The average jaguar in the range given above is 167.5, and adding 50% of the distance from 167.5 to 350 gives 258.75. Of course, this also means that the jaguar is adding 54% of his average body weight to reach size, while the lion is adding only 14%. That doesn't seem fair or reasonable, even if there is a lot more variance in the jaguar population. To make it look a little more even, I'll bump the jaguar down to only adding 27% of his body weight, which comes out to 25% of the distance between the "average" jaguar and the top jaguar. This gives the jaguar a weight of ~213 lbs, which I rounded up to 225 to make up for stealing his gainz, and because it makes the raw disparity land approximately in the middle of the 124-211 range listed above. My math is fucking weird and arbitrary but it's also absolute and inarguable.
Rams @ Buccaneers: Bucs, close. What can I say? I don't think either team is good, but the Rams... Oh, the poor Rams.
Texans @ Raiders: Texans, not close. I LOVE THE TEXANS THIS YEAR BABY!!! THEY'RE COMING BACK!!!
Jets @ Packers: Packers, not close. It's the Jets.
Chiefs @ Broncos: Broncos, not close. It's the Broncos.
Bears @ 49ers: 49ers, close. I still love the Bears offense. But the 49ers are just a gooder team.
Eagles @ Colts: Eagles, close. I don't believe in either of these teams. But nothing, and I mean nothing, captures my belief less than Andrew Luck. Oh good! We ended with a Luck diss and not my dissertation on panthers.
Steelers @ Ravens: Ravens, not close. This one already happened. I'm fucking prescient. Expecting a good game from Flacco (think 109.3 PR).
Seahawks @ Chargers: Seahawks, not close. Oh look it's a real prediction! But not a hard one.
Patriots @ Vikings: Patriots, close. True, the Patriots just lost to the Dolphins in catastrophic fashion, and true, the Vikings just shit on the Rams. But it's not hard to shit on the Rams, and the Dolphins game was an anomaly. Or, you know, Tom Brady suddenly went from a top-five QB in the NFL to worse than Andrew Luck. The Vikings won't get the same kind of pressure that Cameron Wake (not the Dolphins, just Cameron Wake) got against Brady, and that'll be the difference.
Dolphins @ Bills: Dolphins, close. Cameron Wake.
Jaguars @ Redskins: Redskins, not close. Both these teams apparently suck. BUT FUCK IT I STILL BELIEVE IN RGIII!!! I'm too tired to think of a funny nickname for him. Robert... Griffin. The Third. That wasn't funny at all. Fuck off.
Cowboys @ Titans: Cowboys, close. This is probably the wrong choice. But fuck it. I feel like holding your own against San Francisco is way more impressive than dominating Kansas Shitty. Holy God I'm clever.
Cardinals @ Giants: Cardz, not close. The Giants suck more than... um. Name a porn star. I don't watch enough porn and I don't want to date myself and make the Jenna Jameson reference, but I already said Lexi Belle. Stoya? Maybe. But let's go with Sasha Grey. Who's apparently retired??? What kind of shit is this??? And yes, I did just go frantically check Wikipedia to make sure Lexi Belle isn't retired. I have a soft spot for her. And by soft I mean hard. And by spot I mean
Saints @ Browns. Saints, not close. Is this hard? And by this I mean
Falcons @ Bengals. Falcons, close. FUCK IT, I BELIEVE!!!
Lions @ Panthers. Lions, not close. I'm believing a lot recently. The funny thing about football is that there's so much parody (oh wait) that teams that are good in year n aren't necessarily good in year n+1. So the line favors the Panthers even though lions are on average larger than panthers.*
* It's actually hard to determine exactly how much larger lions are on average. The Wikipedia article gives the weight of newborn lions, because anyone ever has wanted to know that, as well as the maximum size (550 lbs), but it doesn't provide an average. Googling "average lion weight" provides the answer of 430 lbs, although the source is dubious and factually disagrees with the answer Google provides, weirdly enough. Panthers are even more complicated, because there's not actually such a thing as a "panther". The genus Panthera includes such big cats (giant kitties) as the tiger, the lion, the jaguar, the leopard, and the snow leopard. The Wikipedia article on "Panther"s redirects to any of a long list of possible candidates, most notably Panthera; its subfamily (parent) Pantherinae; the leopard (which is the African/Asian panther); the cougar/mountain lion (the North/South American panther); the Florida panther (a subspecies of cougar which is found in Florida); the jaguar (South/Central American panther); the black panther (a variant of leopard, jaguar, or cougar); and the white panther (a variant of the same species (plural)).
My best guess is that the Carolina Panthers are named after the black panther, since the cat on the logo is very clearly dark in color and most of the species I listed are not commonly black. Google says that the average (male) panther weighs between 130 and 160 pounds. But I don't know whether the type of panther affects this measurement, and I very much suspect that it does. It's also difficult to determine with any accuracy which type of panther the Carolina Panthers represent. The possibilities include leopard (~130 lbs), cougar (~137 lbs), and jaguar (220 lbs in parts of South America, sometimes larger). So clearly there's at least a little variance. But I think it's safe to assume that the Panthers would be named after a local subspecies. Wikipedia says that "There are no authenticated cases of truly melanistic cougars... [they] have never been photographed or shot in the wild and none has ever been bred." This implies that the Carolina Panthers are almost certainly Jaguars; although it's not outside the realm of possibility that they named their team after an essentially mythical creature (see: Titans, Giants), it's far more likely that they chose to go with the real, local species.
Jaguars (which, according to Wikipedia, kill their prey by biting "directly through the skull... between the ears to deliver a fatal bite to the brain") generally tend to live in the warmer, more humid climates of South and Central America, and are only listed as living in North America due to occasional sightings in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Jaguars (which are the only living, native North American cat that roars) used to have a considerably wider range in the US, almost certainly including Carolina, but as far as I can tell they haven't lived in Carolina in at least 50 years, which makes the name somewhat misleading. But I still think that the "black panther" jaguar is the most likely explanation for the team's mascot.
Now that we know the species, we can make a more accurate estimation of the size, especially relative to the lion. The range given by Wikipedia is 124-211 lbs, although the larger males are listed as being in the range of 350 lbs. To remind you, the average lion is around 430 pounds, while the largest can reach 550 lbs. I could probably find more accurate data by narrowing down the differences in jaguar size by geographic region, but I'm willing to make a ballpark estimate based on these numbers. If we're comparing average size, the lion will have an advantage of 219-306 lbs, while comparing maximum sizes gives us a 200 lb disparity. I think it's reasonable to presume that both sides are presenting a large--albeit not record-setting--specimen of their given species, so let's call it around 225 lbs for the panther and 490 lbs for the lion.** This gives the lion a 265 lb advantage, making it 2.2 times larger than the panther. (This means that if you listed the lion's weight in kg, like a fucking European, and the panther's weight in lbs, like a proud goddamn American, the numbers would look approximately the same.) I use this data to back up my choice of the Lions to win by a large margin.
** My math is as follows: The average lion is 430 and the max is 550. I'll give it half the distance to account for it being the chosen champion, which is 490. The average jaguar in the range given above is 167.5, and adding 50% of the distance from 167.5 to 350 gives 258.75. Of course, this also means that the jaguar is adding 54% of his average body weight to reach size, while the lion is adding only 14%. That doesn't seem fair or reasonable, even if there is a lot more variance in the jaguar population. To make it look a little more even, I'll bump the jaguar down to only adding 27% of his body weight, which comes out to 25% of the distance between the "average" jaguar and the top jaguar. This gives the jaguar a weight of ~213 lbs, which I rounded up to 225 to make up for stealing his gainz, and because it makes the raw disparity land approximately in the middle of the 124-211 range listed above. My math is fucking weird and arbitrary but it's also absolute and inarguable.
Rams @ Buccaneers: Bucs, close. What can I say? I don't think either team is good, but the Rams... Oh, the poor Rams.
Texans @ Raiders: Texans, not close. I LOVE THE TEXANS THIS YEAR BABY!!! THEY'RE COMING BACK!!!
Jets @ Packers: Packers, not close. It's the Jets.
Chiefs @ Broncos: Broncos, not close. It's the Broncos.
Bears @ 49ers: 49ers, close. I still love the Bears offense. But the 49ers are just a gooder team.
Eagles @ Colts: Eagles, close. I don't believe in either of these teams. But nothing, and I mean nothing, captures my belief less than Andrew Luck. Oh good! We ended with a Luck diss and not my dissertation on panthers.
FANTASY FOOTBALL
I have a fantasy football team! Here are my picks, by round, with my thinking. Because this is something I want to write about, and this is MY blog. Hear me? It's MY BLOG. I had pick #6 in the first round (of an ESPN 10-team standard non-PPR snake draft with strangers), so #5 and #6 alternating after that.
RD 1 (6): Matt Forte. Love this pick. I had Forte as my #3 projected running back this season, after only LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. Yes, I think Adrian Peterson is going to drop off. No, I don't want to talk about it. Leave me alone. Anyway, with McCoy and Charles off the board in the first three picks (along with Peterson, Megatron, and DeMarco Murray in the top five), I was happy to get Forte.
RD 2 (15): Doug Martin. I'm old-school. By which I mean I've been playing fantasy football for eight or nine years now (less one or two when I didn't get around to drafting a team). When I was a youngster, drafting my Frank Gores and my Steven Jacksons, before Michael Turner was a thing, before Randy Moss got to his second prime, back when Carson Palmer was a solid quarterback and not a really obscure joke in my last post, the rule was always to draft two solid running backs in the first two rounds, because they were your every-week guys, virtually guaranteed to put up solid, consistent production. To some extent they still are, but WRs have taken a bigger and bigger role in modern fantasy, while stud, every-down RBs have all but dropped off the face of the NFL. I still like to get two solid RBs in the first two rounds if I can, and I still hate the idea of taking a WR, even Calvin, in the first round. I took Martin here because I thought he'd be a solid #2, and because WR is deep as hell and I knew I could pick up a stud or two in the later rounds.
RD 3 (26): Julio Jones. Here's my stud WR. Admittedly fantasy WRs since about 2011 have consisted of "Calvin Johnson" and "the rest," but I'm totally comfortable with Jones as my #1 choice. Again, WR is deep as hell. I liked him a lot more than Jordy Nelson, the next WR off the board, and certainly more than a TE or a QB. (More on these in a bit.)
RD 4 (35): Vincent Jackson. The team who picked #34 overall took the Seahawks D/ST. I'll take this opportunity to explain why this is stunningly stupid: the BEST D/ST in the league, which last year actually was the Seahawks D/ST, scored 195 points. The average defense (Giants or Steelers) put up about 104. That's a difference of 91 points, which comes to 6.5 points per week. And that's if you started that average defense EVERY WEEK. If, say, you alternated between those two defenses, playing the Giants when they had opponents with bad offenses (12 pts vs Min, 18 vs Oak, 8 and 17 vs Wsh, etc.) and the Steelers when THEY had bad opponents (13 vs Jets, 10 vs Oak, 10 vs Buf, 21 and 12 vs Cle), you could EASILY make up that difference, or at the very least get close. Now realize that at any given time, in a 10-man league, you're realistically choosing between ABOUT 20 defenses in any given week (assuming a few idiots keep multiple on their roster), at least 6 of which are at or above the Average Defense benchmark (possibly more, if people are stupid, which they are), and at least 10 of which are reasonable competent. If you put even a little thought into it, you can find a defense that will give you production comparable to any elite D. Yes, you have to pick up a team every week, and that's a bit annoying, and yes, sometimes you'll guess wrong. Yes, maybe it'd be nice to have the Seahawks defense a lot of the time. But is it really worth a FOURTH ROUND PICK? Or a ninth round pick? I mean, come on. Anyway. Vincent Jackson is a stud, even on a team who I'm not 100% sure who their starting QB is.
RD 5 (46): Ryan Mathews. I've been burned before, Ryan. Don't hurt me again. I can't stand to get hurt again. RyMat should work as a flex play and occasional fill-in starter. I can't bear to discuss this any further. We have history.
RD 6 (55): DeSean Jackson. So I have faith in Robert Downey Griffin Junior the Second. Sue me. Or no wait don't.
RD 7 (66): Rashad Jennings. I know, who? But he got 15 points last week. For my bench.
RD 8 (75): Jeremy Maclin. I don't have that much faith in the Eagles' offense. But the loss of DJax should give Maclin some fantasy value. I don't know. These picks are boring now. Let's skip ahead.
RD 9 (86): Golden Tate. Love Tater Tot this year. He's catching balls from the underrated Stafford like Lexi Belle from James Deen (yeah that reference just happened), and he's got the most physically dominant wide receiver possibly ever drawing coverage away from his side of the field. Tate was good in Seattle, but he has the potential to be elite in North Dakota or wherever Detroit is.
RD 10 (95): Anquan Boldin. I don't like the 49ers, but Boldin has the potential to be a solid bye-week fill-in off the bench. Not that I'll ever probably need him.
RD 11 (106): Dennis Pitta. Okay, it's TE time. Basically, here's my philosophy with tight ends (this year at least): 1) There is one elite tight end in the league, Jimmy Graham, and he went 11th overall. I have never spent a first-round pick (or a pick in the top three rounds, as far as I know) on a tight end. Graham is good, and he might even be worth a second-round pick, but I just can't bring myself to draft him that high. There is also one more tight end with the ability to be comparably elite, and that's Rob Gronkowski, of course, but he's so injury-prone that I'm terrified to draft him. 2) There are a bunch more tight ends who occupy the space directly below Graham/possibly Gronk. These TEs usually last until the later rounds (round 9-10 at least, most often). The last TE in this group this year, in my opinion, was Jordan Cameron, who was taken shortly before my round 8 pick. I was not ready to take him in round 7. So I wound up in my third tier. 3) There are enough tight ends in this bottom tier, which is approximately defined as "decent but not great," that you can snatch one late in any-size league. Ideally, I like to end up in tier 2, but I got unlucky in this draft and ended up with Pitta. But I'm okay with that, because I think the marginal value of the skill position players I got instead of drafting Cameron in the 7th will make up for it. (Realize that every player I picked between the 7th and 10th rounds, inclusive, would have been downgraded one round worth if I'd taken Cameron.)
RD 12 (115): Philip Rivers. QB time! There are a bunch of elite fantasy QBs. They tend to go very early off the board. For instance, in my league, Peyton Manning went 7th overall; Rodgers, Stafford, and Brees were gone in the second; the immortal Eli Manning fell in the third; and Russell Wilson inexplicably was chosen in the fourth. In those four rounds, I took an elite RB, a solid starting RB, and two excellent WRs. I also upgraded all the players I drafted between rounds 1 and 12 by passing up a QB until now. In exchange, I downgraded to Philip Rivers, who last year was the #6 scoring QB. He placed a whopping 6 points behind the #3 QB, Cam Newton, and was only really outscored by a great season from Brees and a historic season from Big Daddy Manning. I'll set aside Manning because, let's be real, nobody this season is doing what he did last season. Meanwhile, the difference from Brees to Rivers last season came out to 4.5 points per game. Do you think I made that up by drafting Martin, Jones, and Vincent Jackson instead of, say, Alfred Morris, Emmanuel Sanders, and Pierre Garcon? I certainly do. (Although now I kinda wish I'd drafted Morris in the third and upgraded to AJ Green in the second. Fuck.) Never mind that I ALSO upgraded every single one of my following picks through the 11th round. Never mind that I expect Brees to do worse this season and Rivers to do similarly well. Rivers and Romo are tremendous value in these later rounds, and I'm happy with either one. I'll also take the opportunity to note here that you never need to draft more than one QB or one TE. When their bye week rolls around, pick up a decent replacement-level guy off waivers. He'll do fine. If they get injured, grab a replacement-level guy. This doesn't happen a lot. Seriously, the marginal value of RBs and WRs in these rounds is way higher than that of backup QBs and TEs, who 90% of the time will just sit on your bench forever.
RD 13 (126): Donald Brown. Not sure why I took him. I guess I wanted more RB depth and he was still on the board. Everyone says that these are the rounds where you find your sleepers, but that's bullshit. Nobody actually finds sleepers. You either get lucky or you pick them up off the waiver wire. These picks are waiver bait, the guys you drop so you can pick up the players you actually want.
RD 14 (135): James Starks. Looks like a better pick now if Lacy is out, but still not a particularly interesting pick.
RD 15 (146): Steven Hauschka. Kickers are interesting, because the successful ones are rarely the ones you expect, and the good ones tend to be consistently good in any given season. So I like to pick a decent kicker and hold onto him for a few weeks until the most productive kickers in the league bob up to the surface, then I pick up the best one available. This doesn't require thought. It also doesn't require taking a kicker earlier than the 15th round. (The first kicker taken in my draft was Steven Gostkowski, in round 5, by the same team that took the Seahawks D/ST the round before. Either he was on autodraft or he's an idiot. Actually, same thing either way.)
RD 16 (155): Redskins D/ST. I already explained my strategy with D/STs. I picked essentially at random here.
FINAL TEAM:
- QB: Philip Rivers
- RB: Matt Forte
- RB: Doug Martin
- RB: Ryan Mathews
- RB: Rashad Jennings
- RB: Donald Brown
- RB: James Starks
- WR: Julio Jones
- WR: Vincent Jackson
- WR: DeSean Jackson
- WR: Jeremy Maclin
- WR: Golden Tate
- WR: Anquan Boldin
- TE: Dennis Pitta
- D/ST: Redskins D/ST
- K: Steven Hauschka
Post-Week One Update:
This isn't really an update because I'm just now posting this article. But I dropped the useless Donald Brown for Josh Gordon, who looks like he'll be back from suspension and gives me the possibility of a stud WR for nothing (waiver bait). And I traded the Redskins D/ST for the Texans D/ST, who looked great against... the Redskins, and are facing a weak Oakland offense on Sunday. Hausckha looks solid so far, with 10 points last week, but we'll see how he fares through the next few weeks.
RD 1 (6): Matt Forte. Love this pick. I had Forte as my #3 projected running back this season, after only LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. Yes, I think Adrian Peterson is going to drop off. No, I don't want to talk about it. Leave me alone. Anyway, with McCoy and Charles off the board in the first three picks (along with Peterson, Megatron, and DeMarco Murray in the top five), I was happy to get Forte.
RD 2 (15): Doug Martin. I'm old-school. By which I mean I've been playing fantasy football for eight or nine years now (less one or two when I didn't get around to drafting a team). When I was a youngster, drafting my Frank Gores and my Steven Jacksons, before Michael Turner was a thing, before Randy Moss got to his second prime, back when Carson Palmer was a solid quarterback and not a really obscure joke in my last post, the rule was always to draft two solid running backs in the first two rounds, because they were your every-week guys, virtually guaranteed to put up solid, consistent production. To some extent they still are, but WRs have taken a bigger and bigger role in modern fantasy, while stud, every-down RBs have all but dropped off the face of the NFL. I still like to get two solid RBs in the first two rounds if I can, and I still hate the idea of taking a WR, even Calvin, in the first round. I took Martin here because I thought he'd be a solid #2, and because WR is deep as hell and I knew I could pick up a stud or two in the later rounds.
RD 3 (26): Julio Jones. Here's my stud WR. Admittedly fantasy WRs since about 2011 have consisted of "Calvin Johnson" and "the rest," but I'm totally comfortable with Jones as my #1 choice. Again, WR is deep as hell. I liked him a lot more than Jordy Nelson, the next WR off the board, and certainly more than a TE or a QB. (More on these in a bit.)
RD 4 (35): Vincent Jackson. The team who picked #34 overall took the Seahawks D/ST. I'll take this opportunity to explain why this is stunningly stupid: the BEST D/ST in the league, which last year actually was the Seahawks D/ST, scored 195 points. The average defense (Giants or Steelers) put up about 104. That's a difference of 91 points, which comes to 6.5 points per week. And that's if you started that average defense EVERY WEEK. If, say, you alternated between those two defenses, playing the Giants when they had opponents with bad offenses (12 pts vs Min, 18 vs Oak, 8 and 17 vs Wsh, etc.) and the Steelers when THEY had bad opponents (13 vs Jets, 10 vs Oak, 10 vs Buf, 21 and 12 vs Cle), you could EASILY make up that difference, or at the very least get close. Now realize that at any given time, in a 10-man league, you're realistically choosing between ABOUT 20 defenses in any given week (assuming a few idiots keep multiple on their roster), at least 6 of which are at or above the Average Defense benchmark (possibly more, if people are stupid, which they are), and at least 10 of which are reasonable competent. If you put even a little thought into it, you can find a defense that will give you production comparable to any elite D. Yes, you have to pick up a team every week, and that's a bit annoying, and yes, sometimes you'll guess wrong. Yes, maybe it'd be nice to have the Seahawks defense a lot of the time. But is it really worth a FOURTH ROUND PICK? Or a ninth round pick? I mean, come on. Anyway. Vincent Jackson is a stud, even on a team who I'm not 100% sure who their starting QB is.
RD 5 (46): Ryan Mathews. I've been burned before, Ryan. Don't hurt me again. I can't stand to get hurt again. RyMat should work as a flex play and occasional fill-in starter. I can't bear to discuss this any further. We have history.
RD 6 (55): DeSean Jackson. So I have faith in Robert Downey Griffin Junior the Second. Sue me. Or no wait don't.
RD 7 (66): Rashad Jennings. I know, who? But he got 15 points last week. For my bench.
RD 8 (75): Jeremy Maclin. I don't have that much faith in the Eagles' offense. But the loss of DJax should give Maclin some fantasy value. I don't know. These picks are boring now. Let's skip ahead.
RD 9 (86): Golden Tate. Love Tater Tot this year. He's catching balls from the underrated Stafford like Lexi Belle from James Deen (yeah that reference just happened), and he's got the most physically dominant wide receiver possibly ever drawing coverage away from his side of the field. Tate was good in Seattle, but he has the potential to be elite in North Dakota or wherever Detroit is.
RD 10 (95): Anquan Boldin. I don't like the 49ers, but Boldin has the potential to be a solid bye-week fill-in off the bench. Not that I'll ever probably need him.
RD 11 (106): Dennis Pitta. Okay, it's TE time. Basically, here's my philosophy with tight ends (this year at least): 1) There is one elite tight end in the league, Jimmy Graham, and he went 11th overall. I have never spent a first-round pick (or a pick in the top three rounds, as far as I know) on a tight end. Graham is good, and he might even be worth a second-round pick, but I just can't bring myself to draft him that high. There is also one more tight end with the ability to be comparably elite, and that's Rob Gronkowski, of course, but he's so injury-prone that I'm terrified to draft him. 2) There are a bunch more tight ends who occupy the space directly below Graham/possibly Gronk. These TEs usually last until the later rounds (round 9-10 at least, most often). The last TE in this group this year, in my opinion, was Jordan Cameron, who was taken shortly before my round 8 pick. I was not ready to take him in round 7. So I wound up in my third tier. 3) There are enough tight ends in this bottom tier, which is approximately defined as "decent but not great," that you can snatch one late in any-size league. Ideally, I like to end up in tier 2, but I got unlucky in this draft and ended up with Pitta. But I'm okay with that, because I think the marginal value of the skill position players I got instead of drafting Cameron in the 7th will make up for it. (Realize that every player I picked between the 7th and 10th rounds, inclusive, would have been downgraded one round worth if I'd taken Cameron.)
RD 12 (115): Philip Rivers. QB time! There are a bunch of elite fantasy QBs. They tend to go very early off the board. For instance, in my league, Peyton Manning went 7th overall; Rodgers, Stafford, and Brees were gone in the second; the immortal Eli Manning fell in the third; and Russell Wilson inexplicably was chosen in the fourth. In those four rounds, I took an elite RB, a solid starting RB, and two excellent WRs. I also upgraded all the players I drafted between rounds 1 and 12 by passing up a QB until now. In exchange, I downgraded to Philip Rivers, who last year was the #6 scoring QB. He placed a whopping 6 points behind the #3 QB, Cam Newton, and was only really outscored by a great season from Brees and a historic season from Big Daddy Manning. I'll set aside Manning because, let's be real, nobody this season is doing what he did last season. Meanwhile, the difference from Brees to Rivers last season came out to 4.5 points per game. Do you think I made that up by drafting Martin, Jones, and Vincent Jackson instead of, say, Alfred Morris, Emmanuel Sanders, and Pierre Garcon? I certainly do. (Although now I kinda wish I'd drafted Morris in the third and upgraded to AJ Green in the second. Fuck.) Never mind that I ALSO upgraded every single one of my following picks through the 11th round. Never mind that I expect Brees to do worse this season and Rivers to do similarly well. Rivers and Romo are tremendous value in these later rounds, and I'm happy with either one. I'll also take the opportunity to note here that you never need to draft more than one QB or one TE. When their bye week rolls around, pick up a decent replacement-level guy off waivers. He'll do fine. If they get injured, grab a replacement-level guy. This doesn't happen a lot. Seriously, the marginal value of RBs and WRs in these rounds is way higher than that of backup QBs and TEs, who 90% of the time will just sit on your bench forever.
RD 13 (126): Donald Brown. Not sure why I took him. I guess I wanted more RB depth and he was still on the board. Everyone says that these are the rounds where you find your sleepers, but that's bullshit. Nobody actually finds sleepers. You either get lucky or you pick them up off the waiver wire. These picks are waiver bait, the guys you drop so you can pick up the players you actually want.
RD 14 (135): James Starks. Looks like a better pick now if Lacy is out, but still not a particularly interesting pick.
RD 15 (146): Steven Hauschka. Kickers are interesting, because the successful ones are rarely the ones you expect, and the good ones tend to be consistently good in any given season. So I like to pick a decent kicker and hold onto him for a few weeks until the most productive kickers in the league bob up to the surface, then I pick up the best one available. This doesn't require thought. It also doesn't require taking a kicker earlier than the 15th round. (The first kicker taken in my draft was Steven Gostkowski, in round 5, by the same team that took the Seahawks D/ST the round before. Either he was on autodraft or he's an idiot. Actually, same thing either way.)
RD 16 (155): Redskins D/ST. I already explained my strategy with D/STs. I picked essentially at random here.
FINAL TEAM:
- QB: Philip Rivers
- RB: Matt Forte
- RB: Doug Martin
- RB: Ryan Mathews
- RB: Rashad Jennings
- RB: Donald Brown
- RB: James Starks
- WR: Julio Jones
- WR: Vincent Jackson
- WR: DeSean Jackson
- WR: Jeremy Maclin
- WR: Golden Tate
- WR: Anquan Boldin
- TE: Dennis Pitta
- D/ST: Redskins D/ST
- K: Steven Hauschka
Post-Week One Update:
This isn't really an update because I'm just now posting this article. But I dropped the useless Donald Brown for Josh Gordon, who looks like he'll be back from suspension and gives me the possibility of a stud WR for nothing (waiver bait). And I traded the Redskins D/ST for the Texans D/ST, who looked great against... the Redskins, and are facing a weak Oakland offense on Sunday. Hausckha looks solid so far, with 10 points last week, but we'll see how he fares through the next few weeks.
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 1 Power Rankings slash Week One Reactions
Week 1 of the 2014 NFL season is complete! The Seahawks won their game; some other teams won and lost and stuff, but who cares about them; and it's time for the first of possibly many power rankings! Be forewarned: After #3 I stopped ranking teams and just started talking about the interesting teams. Your team might not be on here.
1. Seattle Seahawks! The Seahawks looked to be in peak form on Thursday. Russell Wilson looked good, with the potential to be great, notching a 110.9 passer rating and a few nice runs on the ground. Lynch looked like one of those rare running backs who's actually effective independent of his blocking, blasting through the Packers for 110 yards and two scores; and Harvin looked like a deadly weapon, tearing shit up every which way. Even Zach Miller looked effective. And the defense was stifling, holding Aaron Rodgers to an Andrew Luck-esque (i.e. mediocre) 81.5 passer rating, and limiting the Packers to 80 yards rushing en route to a 36-16 victory.
2. Denver Broncos. The Broncos leapt out to a 24-0 lead early in the game before finishing the half at 24-7, which is what you'd expect from an elite team playing an average one. But then they nearly surrendered a comeback to Andrew "Poor Man's Vince Young" Luck*, only barely managing to close out the game 31-24. But the Broncos are still a great team, and they're still led by the cream of the quarterbacking crop in Peyton "Creamy" Manning. On a darker note, the Broncos' favorite pet Montee Ball put up a mediocre 67 yards on a staggering 23 (!) carries, for an abysmal 2.9 YPC. There have been worse games--lots of worse games, actually--but rarely with such a good quarterback opening up space. Oh yeah, and if Ball continues to rush at that volume (~250 total carries) and efficiency (or lack thereof), he will be the proud owner of the single lowest season Y/A since the merger. Or ever. Food for thought.
3. San Francisco 49ers. As much as I expect a little regression on the San Francisco front, it didn't come this week. Colin Kaepernick was the picture of efficiency, putting up an impressive 125.5 passer rating. The Niners also came impressively close to one of the most amazing team receiving statlines I've ever seen: if Stevie Johnson and Anquan Boldin had caught one more pass each, and Michael Crabtree had picked up two few yards, the Niners who caught a ball would have had, respectively, 9 catches for 99 yards, 4 for 44, 3, for 33, and 2 for 22. But they failed at this. Just like they've failed in two NFC Championships and a Super Bowl over the last three years. Honestly, the Niners have been failing more than Andrew Luck. Why are they this high, again?
X. Houston Texans. It's happening. It's happening. It's happening. Houston is back, baby, Or, you know. Here for the first time. And by "here" I mean championship contenders. Yes, they have Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at QB, and he only put up a game-manager-y 206 yds, 1 TD, and a 109.3 rating. Yes, Arian Foster, their productive workhorse back, was below 4 YPC. And yes, Andre Johnson, their star receiver, is like 36. (Okay, so he's 33.) But you know what the Texans have now that they didn't have last year? A competent QB. Because the thing I said above about Fitzpatrick being a game manager was a joke, because he was amazingly effective that game and the term "game manager" is almost universally wrongly applied. And you know what the Texans have now that they had last year and the year before? JJ Watt, the best player in the league and the single most dominant defender I have ever seen. Watt had a MONSTER game against the Redskins' offense (led by a deceptively effective Rob Griffey Jr. Jr., whose career passer rating even following his down year is still higher than fellow-top-two-draft-choice-in-2012 Andrew Luck), and I don't expect his monster games to stop. The thing about defensive players is that they can't always necessarily win games for their teams, because that's just hard to do unless you're a quarterback. But when you have a guy like Watt, who is CLEARLY the best defensive player in the league, and you give him the chance to make plays in close games? He WILL come through in a big way for you.
Y. Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals went up five scores and somehow only established a margin of 15-0, because of course they were five field goals, because the Bengals. They almost got comebacked-on (like Andrew Luck, or the superior comeback engineer Vince Young, was on the Ravens instead of Flaccastrophe). At least Andy Dalton was competent. And at least the Bengals' D is pretty solid still.
Z. Atlanta Falcons. Whoa, shit, did we know Matt Ryan could do that? You might be saying, "Yes, Jesse, of course we knew, you big silly goose," but not so fast. Know how many times Matty Ice (HOLY SHIT I NEED TO NICKNAME Matt Stafford "Natty Ice"!! And while we're at it we can nickname Andrew Luck "Captain Undeserved Praise") has put up a 128.8+ passer rating in the past two seasons? Like zero. And by "like zero" I mean five times, including only once last year. Which isn't as few as I expected. What made the difference? Was it the return of his two stud receivers, Hulio Hones and Devin Hester (wait, what?), or the surprising effectiveness of their RB-by-committee? Either way, I can safely say I don't care.
A. Detroit Lions. Natty Ice was in prime form on Sunday, as Natty Ice threw for 346 yards and 2 TDs, while Natty Ice also put up a passer rating of 125.3, topping Andrew Luck's meager 83.1 in the chronologically preceding game. Natty Ice didn't get much help from his running game, which honestly looked pathetic (76 total yards, including 15 on 9 carries from the immortal Reggie Bush), but Natty Ice and the Lions seem to have adopted the "Saints Method" of offense; i.e., "don't fucking run the ball and just fucking throw it instead." The key differences, of course, between the Saints' offence and the Lions' offense (featuring Natty Ice) are that Brees is slightly more accurate than Natty Ice, and Natty Ice is throwing to the most physically dominant receiver of all time, and the best overall receiver since Randy Moss. That would, of course, be Golden Tate, who received an assist from the decidedly mediocre Calvin Johnson. Any way you slice it, that receiving corps is stacked, especially when you realize that Reggie Bush is at this point essentially a tight end who blocks from the backfield and catches screens. The point really is, with 346 yards of passing offense, who the fuck needs a running game? Detroit's defense also looks studly, and their defensive line might be the best in football (or, you know, the Rams).
B. New Orleans Saints. I have no idea how good this team is. I can safely say they're better than Andrew Luck, but beyond that it's a mystery. Should I be impressed that they held their own with the surprisingly good Atlanta offense? Or should I mock them for losing to a team which last year won approximately zero games? (Okay, four. Still.)
C. St. Louis Cardinals. Wait... Kurt Warner (is that right?) looked great out there, throwing 119 yards and a whopping 0 touchdowns to... Malcolm Floyd? I'm so confused. The Cardinals defense looks good once again this year, led by two players I've never heard of (Larry Foote and Tony Jefferson) despite having followed football so closely over the last decade that I have more restraining orders than the Seahawks have players. I'm more confused than Andrew Luck trying to talk to a girl.
D. Indianapolis Colts. The Colts started out weak, going down 24-0 through the first fifteen-plus-thirteen minutes and three seconds of the game, but were they going to let that stop them? Hell no. They have the quarterbacking situation which is frequently rated as either the #1 or #2 in the league, for no reason, despite having neither an elite starting quarterback nor a promising young backup in the wings. The Colts have always whined about their running game, and in this game it kind of deserved it, as the Colts' three best backs (Trent Richardson, Luck, and Ahmad Bradshaw) combined for 54 yards on the ground. The Colts do have what I strongly believe is the most underrated receiving corps in the NFL, by an absurdly wide margin, and all of them looked solid on Sunday. Andrew Luck did his best to channel his inner Vince Young (the Comeback Champion, whom Luck continually and fruitlessly tries to exceed), but in the end he was ultimately unsuccessful, and lapsed once more into the quiet failure of the weak. In a pun update, Luck's failure is also the Failure of the Week! So he won something. Like a six-year-old on the last-place team in a politically-correct soccer tournament.
E. Minnesota Vikings. What the fuck? Is Matt Cassel that good? Is Cordarrelle Patterson? Is that spelled right? Is Adrian Peterson suddenly no longer the best running back on the Vikings? Is Matt Cassel suddenly in the spacious ranks of NFL Starting QBs Who Are Better Than Luck? Is Luck suddenly a below-average starting QB? The answer to all these questions (except the first, which was rhetorical) are probably no, but I'm leaving them because they make me feel warm inside.
Peace.
1. Seattle Seahawks! The Seahawks looked to be in peak form on Thursday. Russell Wilson looked good, with the potential to be great, notching a 110.9 passer rating and a few nice runs on the ground. Lynch looked like one of those rare running backs who's actually effective independent of his blocking, blasting through the Packers for 110 yards and two scores; and Harvin looked like a deadly weapon, tearing shit up every which way. Even Zach Miller looked effective. And the defense was stifling, holding Aaron Rodgers to an Andrew Luck-esque (i.e. mediocre) 81.5 passer rating, and limiting the Packers to 80 yards rushing en route to a 36-16 victory.
2. Denver Broncos. The Broncos leapt out to a 24-0 lead early in the game before finishing the half at 24-7, which is what you'd expect from an elite team playing an average one. But then they nearly surrendered a comeback to Andrew "Poor Man's Vince Young" Luck*, only barely managing to close out the game 31-24. But the Broncos are still a great team, and they're still led by the cream of the quarterbacking crop in Peyton "Creamy" Manning. On a darker note, the Broncos' favorite pet Montee Ball put up a mediocre 67 yards on a staggering 23 (!) carries, for an abysmal 2.9 YPC. There have been worse games--lots of worse games, actually--but rarely with such a good quarterback opening up space. Oh yeah, and if Ball continues to rush at that volume (~250 total carries) and efficiency (or lack thereof), he will be the proud owner of the single lowest season Y/A since the merger. Or ever. Food for thought.
3. San Francisco 49ers. As much as I expect a little regression on the San Francisco front, it didn't come this week. Colin Kaepernick was the picture of efficiency, putting up an impressive 125.5 passer rating. The Niners also came impressively close to one of the most amazing team receiving statlines I've ever seen: if Stevie Johnson and Anquan Boldin had caught one more pass each, and Michael Crabtree had picked up two few yards, the Niners who caught a ball would have had, respectively, 9 catches for 99 yards, 4 for 44, 3, for 33, and 2 for 22. But they failed at this. Just like they've failed in two NFC Championships and a Super Bowl over the last three years. Honestly, the Niners have been failing more than Andrew Luck. Why are they this high, again?
X. Houston Texans. It's happening. It's happening. It's happening. Houston is back, baby, Or, you know. Here for the first time. And by "here" I mean championship contenders. Yes, they have Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at QB, and he only put up a game-manager-y 206 yds, 1 TD, and a 109.3 rating. Yes, Arian Foster, their productive workhorse back, was below 4 YPC. And yes, Andre Johnson, their star receiver, is like 36. (Okay, so he's 33.) But you know what the Texans have now that they didn't have last year? A competent QB. Because the thing I said above about Fitzpatrick being a game manager was a joke, because he was amazingly effective that game and the term "game manager" is almost universally wrongly applied. And you know what the Texans have now that they had last year and the year before? JJ Watt, the best player in the league and the single most dominant defender I have ever seen. Watt had a MONSTER game against the Redskins' offense (led by a deceptively effective Rob Griffey Jr. Jr., whose career passer rating even following his down year is still higher than fellow-top-two-draft-choice-in-2012 Andrew Luck), and I don't expect his monster games to stop. The thing about defensive players is that they can't always necessarily win games for their teams, because that's just hard to do unless you're a quarterback. But when you have a guy like Watt, who is CLEARLY the best defensive player in the league, and you give him the chance to make plays in close games? He WILL come through in a big way for you.
Y. Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals went up five scores and somehow only established a margin of 15-0, because of course they were five field goals, because the Bengals. They almost got comebacked-on (like Andrew Luck, or the superior comeback engineer Vince Young, was on the Ravens instead of Flaccastrophe). At least Andy Dalton was competent. And at least the Bengals' D is pretty solid still.
Z. Atlanta Falcons. Whoa, shit, did we know Matt Ryan could do that? You might be saying, "Yes, Jesse, of course we knew, you big silly goose," but not so fast. Know how many times Matty Ice (HOLY SHIT I NEED TO NICKNAME Matt Stafford "Natty Ice"!! And while we're at it we can nickname Andrew Luck "Captain Undeserved Praise") has put up a 128.8+ passer rating in the past two seasons? Like zero. And by "like zero" I mean five times, including only once last year. Which isn't as few as I expected. What made the difference? Was it the return of his two stud receivers, Hulio Hones and Devin Hester (wait, what?), or the surprising effectiveness of their RB-by-committee? Either way, I can safely say I don't care.
A. Detroit Lions. Natty Ice was in prime form on Sunday, as Natty Ice threw for 346 yards and 2 TDs, while Natty Ice also put up a passer rating of 125.3, topping Andrew Luck's meager 83.1 in the chronologically preceding game. Natty Ice didn't get much help from his running game, which honestly looked pathetic (76 total yards, including 15 on 9 carries from the immortal Reggie Bush), but Natty Ice and the Lions seem to have adopted the "Saints Method" of offense; i.e., "don't fucking run the ball and just fucking throw it instead." The key differences, of course, between the Saints' offence and the Lions' offense (featuring Natty Ice) are that Brees is slightly more accurate than Natty Ice, and Natty Ice is throwing to the most physically dominant receiver of all time, and the best overall receiver since Randy Moss. That would, of course, be Golden Tate, who received an assist from the decidedly mediocre Calvin Johnson. Any way you slice it, that receiving corps is stacked, especially when you realize that Reggie Bush is at this point essentially a tight end who blocks from the backfield and catches screens. The point really is, with 346 yards of passing offense, who the fuck needs a running game? Detroit's defense also looks studly, and their defensive line might be the best in football (or, you know, the Rams).
B. New Orleans Saints. I have no idea how good this team is. I can safely say they're better than Andrew Luck, but beyond that it's a mystery. Should I be impressed that they held their own with the surprisingly good Atlanta offense? Or should I mock them for losing to a team which last year won approximately zero games? (Okay, four. Still.)
C. St. Louis Cardinals. Wait... Kurt Warner (is that right?) looked great out there, throwing 119 yards and a whopping 0 touchdowns to... Malcolm Floyd? I'm so confused. The Cardinals defense looks good once again this year, led by two players I've never heard of (Larry Foote and Tony Jefferson) despite having followed football so closely over the last decade that I have more restraining orders than the Seahawks have players. I'm more confused than Andrew Luck trying to talk to a girl.
D. Indianapolis Colts. The Colts started out weak, going down 24-0 through the first fifteen-plus-thirteen minutes and three seconds of the game, but were they going to let that stop them? Hell no. They have the quarterbacking situation which is frequently rated as either the #1 or #2 in the league, for no reason, despite having neither an elite starting quarterback nor a promising young backup in the wings. The Colts have always whined about their running game, and in this game it kind of deserved it, as the Colts' three best backs (Trent Richardson, Luck, and Ahmad Bradshaw) combined for 54 yards on the ground. The Colts do have what I strongly believe is the most underrated receiving corps in the NFL, by an absurdly wide margin, and all of them looked solid on Sunday. Andrew Luck did his best to channel his inner Vince Young (the Comeback Champion, whom Luck continually and fruitlessly tries to exceed), but in the end he was ultimately unsuccessful, and lapsed once more into the quiet failure of the weak. In a pun update, Luck's failure is also the Failure of the Week! So he won something. Like a six-year-old on the last-place team in a politically-correct soccer tournament.
E. Minnesota Vikings. What the fuck? Is Matt Cassel that good? Is Cordarrelle Patterson? Is that spelled right? Is Adrian Peterson suddenly no longer the best running back on the Vikings? Is Matt Cassel suddenly in the spacious ranks of NFL Starting QBs Who Are Better Than Luck? Is Luck suddenly a below-average starting QB? The answer to all these questions (except the first, which was rhetorical) are probably no, but I'm leaving them because they make me feel warm inside.
Peace.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)