Let's update this thing for this season. I'll be competing against last year's picks (although obviously the prices have changed so one of us is presumably at a disadvantage).
QB: Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater.
Why I got better: Wilson is obviously still Wilson, although this version is a little better and a lot more expensive. He's still worth it. Bridgewater-vs-Foles is difficult to define. He had one inexplicably transcendent season in 2013 that will always have a place in the annals of history as not only one of the greatest passing seasons ever, but also as probably the biggest single-season fluke in NFL history. But given that he immediately regressed, it's hard to call him better than Bridgewater, who has yet to sniff anything like what Foles achieved in '13, but who also has shown a higher baseline performance, which is really what we want from a backup. (I'm also not sure whether I should take Foles's '13 performance into account here or just try to judge where he was as a player when I selected him; I'm doing the latter.) Bridgewater is also probably a better fit for the system, not because of mobility--he's not mobile--but because of his accuracy. His worst seasonal cmp% is better than Foles's best.
RB: Thomas Rawls, Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Kyle Juszczyk.
Why I got better: Assuming Rawls comes back strong, which he will, we have a LOT more top-shelf talent here than on last year's team. Morris was pretty good, but Woodhead was never that great and Lacy is good-but-not-great exemplified. Meanwhile Rawls has looked godly, Bell might be the best RB in the league when healthy, and Freeman has established himself as a dominant dual-threat (rushing and receiving) this season. Also Juszczyk is better than Miller so we win there.
WR: Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, Jr., Alshon Jeffery, Tyler Lockett.
Why I got better: It's not totally clear that I did. My depth is better, no doubt. Lockett is my return threat, and Beckham and Jeffery are a step up from Hilton, Allen, and Kearse. But Calvin-Green-Dez vs. Brown-Hopkins-Robinson isn't that clear. Those first three guys are ridiculously talented, but Brown is beginning to look like he might potentially be the best wide receiver since Randy Moss (although it's still Calvin at the moment) and Hopkins and Robinson are having phenomenal seasons. Beckham also has the potential to ascend to elite levels, although I'm not convinced that he's quite as good as everyone says. That said, I'm not totally convinced in the ability of these guys (besides Brown) to maintain this level of success, so I'd say '14 has a slight advantage.
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce.
Why I got better: I got Gronkowski. I've been saying for a while that Gronk is the best tight end I've ever seen and very probably the best tight end ever, but not everyone has believed me. What more does he need to do? He gets manhandled every play and still dominates more than any tight end ever has. His numbers speak for themselves, but even they fail to represent his blocking, which is the best in the league. Consider this: Most tight ends are very good at either receiving or blocking, and are competent at the other. They're extremely different skills, so being competent in both is uncommon, and being good in one and not the other is enough to make you a strong starter. Gronkowski is the best in the league in both, and it's not all that close. Eat your heart out, Tony Gonzalez. You never played like this.
OL: Tyron Smith, Richie Incognito, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Ryan Schraeder, Terron Armstead, Joe Berger, Trai Turner, Mitchell Schwartz.
Why I got better: I honestly don't know. I've all but given up on offensive line evaluation. I have no idea what makes lines work. I have some suspicions--I think having a great left tackle and center is far more important than any other position; I think playing LTs out of position at the guard spots is a great strategy; and I think the performance of an O-line is directly related to how many games they've played together--but I'm not confident enough to make any comparisons between this very talented group of players and last year's very talented group of players. They'll both probably be extremely good lines.
DL: J.J. Watt, Damon Harrison, Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, Kawann Short.
Why I got better: Aaron Donald. He's better than any player (besides Watt) on last year's roster, and he's closer to Watt this year than anyone has ever been. Sure, Watt's seen competition before: Geno Atkins in 2012, Robert Quinn in '13, Von Miller in '12, and Ndamukong Suh (to a lesser extent) in '14 all came closer to Watt than the rest of the league, but none of them really challenged him. I want you to realize that I consider Watt the best defensive player I've ever seen when I say the following: Aaron Donald might be the best defensive player in the league this year. Will he maintain that? I doubt it; all those other guys fell back to Earth in the following years. But Donald might currently be having the best non-Watt defensive season I've ever seen. (That also might be totally wrong. I saw '08 Ed Reed, '05-'06 Urlacher, '08 Ray Lewis, '08 and '10 James Harrison, '07 Bob Sanders--which is underrated but deserves mention--'09 Revis, '13 Sherman, '06 Champ Bailey, etc., etc. I'm pretty sure the four best defensive seasons I've ever seen are '12 Watt, '13 Watt, '14 Watt, and '09 Revis, in some order. I'm just not sure who's #5.)
ILB: Jamie Collins, Luke Kuechly, Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall, Jasper Brinkley.
Why I got better: I didn't. David, Willis, and Wagner are a whole lot better than Kuechly, Collins, and Trevathan. In fact Kuechly, the best player on this year's squad, might be worse than all three of the studs from last year's team. Or he might beat out Wagner. Doesn't really matter.
OLB: Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Olivier Vernon, Kevin Pierre-Louis.
Why I got better: This one really depends on whether you believe Houston and Quinn were actually as great as they looked at the time I wrote my article. (I think Quinn was and Houston wasn't, even though Houston had a better season after I wrote that article.) Whereas Miller is the real deal and Mack is having an incredible season (he's the clear third-best defensive player in the league right now, behind Watt and Donald and ahead of Kuechly). I honestly give these guys the edge here. But it's slight.
CB: Josh Norman, Tyrann Mathieu, Logan Ryan, Desmond Trufant, Trumaine Johnson, Ronald Darby.
Why I got better: Yeah, I didn't. At all. Sherman and Revis trash this unit. But alas, contracts catch up to everyone eventually. I actually love my depth here a lot more than last year's team, but elite talent counts for a lot at cornerback and it's lacking here.
S: Harrison Smith, Kurt Coleman, Husain Abdullah, Deshawn Shead.
Why I got better: Again, I didn't. Smith is having a good season, but Thomas and Chancellor are just better. And once again... contracts.
ST: Brandon McManus, Ryan Quigley, Clint Gresham.
Why I got better: I didn't. Yikes. How do you get worse at special teams?
Total: $143.24 million out of $143.28, leaving me with $40,000 to spend, which I (obviously) can't spend anywhere.
Summary: The big changes here are an improved Wilson at QB; a better group of RBs; a big jump at TE; a great addition to the DL; significant regression at ILB; and a much worse secondary. Our offense is going to be fantastic, and our DL is the best of the modern era (barely beating the St. Louis Rams), but losing our linebacking edge and our entire secondary hurts a lot. If the two teams played one another, 2014's advantage in the secondary might be the deciding factor. Or maybe 2015's superior offense and better pass rush would make up for it. It's close. But given that I spent an extra $11 million this year and didn't get significantly better probably gives the win to last year's team.
Why? It's obvious: Seattle paid their players. Wilson, Wagner, Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor are all on big contracts now (some already were but most weren't), making them a lot harder to get on this team. And yes, Seattle is good enough to make this much of a difference in the overall talent of the team. Think about it: a cheap Sherman/Thomas/Chancellor/Wagner completely patches the holes in this roster, and a cheap Wilson obviously opens up a lot of money to spend. It's sad to say, but other teams just aren't producing the kind of quality talent for cheap prices that Seattle is.
And no, this doesn't mean Seattle won't be able to keep our good players. We already signed literally everyone who matters. I figured out exactly how this would happen like three years ago. There was never any risk of any of our core players walking.
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