Over the first nine games of the season, Russell Wilson played pretty well, albeit not up to his usual standards. He completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards, and threw 10 TDs to 7 interceptions. His passer rating was a decent-but-not-great 91.7.
Over the last five games, however, Wilson has not only regained his past level of performance, but he has in fact exceeded it. Wait, let me rephrase: Russell Wilson's last five games might be the best five-game stretch of any quarterback in NFL history.
Over the past five games, Wilson has completed 110 of his 148 passes for a 74.3% completion rate, 1420 yards, 19 TDs (!!), 0 interceptions, 9.59 yards per attempt, and a 143.6 passer rating.
We already know Wilson's currently putting up the best numbers ever over games 10-14. But there's no reason we should limit five-game stretches to those particular five games. Any stretch, from 1-5 to 12-16, should be admissible. For this, I'm including every five-game stretch in which the QB attempted at least 100 passes and played all five games.
Here's the leaderboard, top 25 all-time, independent of which 5-week stretch we look at:
- Warner '99 (144.8)
- Wilson '15 (143.6)
- Brady '07 (137.4)
- Brady '07 (137.0)
- Manning '13 (136.4)
- Rodgers '11 (136.4)
- Rodgers '11 (135.9)
- Rodgers '11 (134.9)
- Warner '99 (134.4)
- Rodgers '11 (134.3)
- Wilson '15 (133.5)
- Brady '10 (133.3)
- Foles '13 (133.2)
- Brady '07 (132.5)
- Brady '10 (132.5)
- Warner '99 (131.4)
- Vince Ferragamo '80 (131.1)
- Dave Krieg '86 (131.0)
- Young '93 (131.0)
- Young '94 (130.5)
- Manning '04 (130.3)
- Brady '10 (130.2)
- Manning '04 (130.2)
- Rodgers '14 (129.9)
- Romo '14 (129.0)
- Bubby Brister '90 (129.0)
Few notes.
First of all, holy shit. Wilson just put up the second-best five-game stretch in NFL history, and only one person (Kurt Warner) is particularly close. What's more, Wilson also put up the #11 all-time five-game stretch earlier this season. And this list is almost exclusively made up of some of the greatest passing seasons of all time. That's unbelievable.
For the record, during Warner's stretch, he completed 76.3% of his passes for 10.36 Y/A, 15 TDs, and 1 int. In other words, Warner's completion percentage is slightly higher, his Y/A is significantly better, his TD% is very slightly worse, and his int% is worse as well (although one pick in 118 attempts isn't exactly bad).
It's probably worth noting a few more things: First, Warner's Rams scored 38 PPG over this stretch (the Seahawks have averaged 34.2). And second, Warner was playing with the Greatest Show on Turf, which included such future Hall-of-Famers as Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Orlando Pace, and of course Warner himself. Wilson has done almost exactly as well while playing with Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Russell Okung, and (for most of the stretch) Thomas Rawls. As much as I love the Seahawks, that's a massive talent gap. There's absolutely an argument to be made that Wilson has been better, considering.
For the record, during Warner's stretch, he completed 76.3% of his passes for 10.36 Y/A, 15 TDs, and 1 int. In other words, Warner's completion percentage is slightly higher, his Y/A is significantly better, his TD% is very slightly worse, and his int% is worse as well (although one pick in 118 attempts isn't exactly bad).
It's probably worth noting a few more things: First, Warner's Rams scored 38 PPG over this stretch (the Seahawks have averaged 34.2). And second, Warner was playing with the Greatest Show on Turf, which included such future Hall-of-Famers as Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Orlando Pace, and of course Warner himself. Wilson has done almost exactly as well while playing with Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Russell Okung, and (for most of the stretch) Thomas Rawls. As much as I love the Seahawks, that's a massive talent gap. There's absolutely an argument to be made that Wilson has been better, considering.
Second. Excluding Wilson, since this season is still in progress, every player in the top 12 of this list won MVP. Foles, at #13, lost MVP to another player on this list (Manning); same with Romo at #25. (This means that every player in the top 16 either won MVP or lost it to someone else on this list.) The only players on this list who lost MVP to someone not on this list are Vince Ferragamo, Dave Krieg, Bubby Brister, and Steve Young in '93. The first three are understandable because those stretches were just crazy flukes. The fourth was just a terrible choice. In total, of the 26 entries on this list, 18 of them came as part of an MVP season.
Now consider seasons with multiple entries on the list (i.e. seasons with multiple all-time-great five-game stretches). These are Warner '99, Wilson '15, Brady '07, Rodgers '11 (four times!!), Brady '10, and Manning '04. Every one of those seasons won MVP.
Finally, let's look at the players who made the list multiple times. These are Warner, Wilson, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Young, and that's it. No Joe Montana, no Drew Brees, no Johnny Unitas or Dan Marino. Just those six.
Oh, and if you're concerned by the fact that we're just looking at five-game stretches, don't be. He's having the best second half of a season ever. And the tenth-best season of all time. And this isn't a fluke; notice, on that first list, that Wilson's 2012 season, his rookie year, had what was at the time the sixth-best second half ever (now 11th). Wilson's been keeping historic company for a while now; this is just the first time the rest of the world is starting to notice.
###
An interesting thing I noticed in my research is that Wilson tends to play much better in the second half of the season than the first half. I decided to compare his numbers from each of his seasons:
2012 games 1-8: 82.4 PR
2012 games 9-16: 120.3 PR
Difference: +37.9 PR
2013 games 1-8: 99.0 PR
2013 games 9-16: 103.3 PR
Difference: +4.3 PR
2014 games 1-8: 93.1 PR
2014 games 9-16: 97.0 PR
Difference: +3.9 PR
2015 games 1-8: 95.0 PR
2015 games 9-14*: 132.6 PR
Difference: +37.6 PR
* in progress
Games 1-8 average PR: 92.4
Games 9-16 average PR: 113.3
Average difference: +20.9 PR
That's insane. In both 2012 and this year, Wilson improved by nearly 40 points of passer rating. Even averaging in the much closer '13 and '14 numbers, that's an average difference of 20.9 points from the first half of the season to the second half. Prorated to a full year, that's the difference between Rich Gannon and Brett Favre at #206 (lol) and #6 outright, behind only Rodgers, Manning, Foles, Brady, and Manning again.
Read that again. Wilson's average passer rating over the second half of the season, for his career, is equivalent to the 6th-best passing season ever. If you're wondering how he came to be the second-highest rated passer ever, that's how.
One other thing that I noticed: In all those games 1-8 combined (32 total), Wilson's Seahawks went 20-12 for a 62.5% winrate. In the games 9-16 (30 total), they went 25-5 for an 83.3% winrate. As Wilson goes, so go the Seahawks. #MVP
No comments:
Post a Comment