The Updated Ultimate 53-man Roster

Let's update this thing for this season. I'll be competing against last year's picks (although obviously the prices have changed so one of us is presumably at a disadvantage).

QB: Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater.
Why I got better: Wilson is obviously still Wilson, although this version is a little better and a lot more expensive. He's still worth it. Bridgewater-vs-Foles is difficult to define. He had one inexplicably transcendent season in 2013 that will always have a place in the annals of history as not only one of the greatest passing seasons ever, but also as probably the biggest single-season fluke in NFL history. But given that he immediately regressed, it's hard to call him better than Bridgewater, who has yet to sniff anything like what Foles achieved in '13, but who also has shown a higher baseline performance, which is really what we want from a backup. (I'm also not sure whether I should take Foles's '13 performance into account here or just try to judge where he was as a player when I selected him; I'm doing the latter.) Bridgewater is also probably a better fit for the system, not because of mobility--he's not mobile--but because of his accuracy. His worst seasonal cmp% is better than Foles's best.

RB: Thomas Rawls, Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Kyle Juszczyk.
Why I got better: Assuming Rawls comes back strong, which he will, we have a LOT more top-shelf talent here than on last year's team. Morris was pretty good, but Woodhead was never that great and Lacy is good-but-not-great exemplified. Meanwhile Rawls has looked godly, Bell might be the best RB in the league when healthy, and Freeman has established himself as a dominant dual-threat (rushing and receiving) this season. Also Juszczyk is better than Miller so we win there.

WR: Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, Jr., Alshon Jeffery, Tyler Lockett.
Why I got better: It's not totally clear that I did. My depth is better, no doubt. Lockett is my return threat, and Beckham and Jeffery are a step up from Hilton, Allen, and Kearse. But Calvin-Green-Dez vs. Brown-Hopkins-Robinson isn't that clear. Those first three guys are ridiculously talented, but Brown is beginning to look like he might potentially be the best wide receiver since Randy Moss (although it's still Calvin at the moment) and Hopkins and Robinson are having phenomenal seasons. Beckham also has the potential to ascend to elite levels, although I'm not convinced that he's quite as good as everyone says. That said, I'm not totally convinced in the ability of these guys (besides Brown) to maintain this level of success, so I'd say '14 has a slight advantage.

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce.
Why I got better: I got Gronkowski. I've been saying for a while that Gronk is the best tight end I've ever seen and very probably the best tight end ever, but not everyone has believed me. What more does he need to do? He gets manhandled every play and still dominates more than any tight end ever has. His numbers speak for themselves, but even they fail to represent his blocking, which is the best in the league. Consider this: Most tight ends are very good at either receiving or blocking, and are competent at the other. They're extremely different skills, so being competent in both is uncommon, and being good in one and not the other is enough to make you a strong starter. Gronkowski is the best in the league in both, and it's not all that close. Eat your heart out, Tony Gonzalez. You never played like this.

OL: Tyron Smith, Richie Incognito, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Ryan Schraeder, Terron Armstead, Joe Berger, Trai Turner, Mitchell Schwartz.
Why I got better: I honestly don't know. I've all but given up on offensive line evaluation. I have no idea what makes lines work. I have some suspicions--I think having a great left tackle and center is far more important than any other position; I think playing LTs out of position at the guard spots is a great strategy; and I think the performance of an O-line is directly related to how many games they've played together--but I'm not confident enough to make any comparisons between this very talented group of players and last year's very talented group of players. They'll both probably be extremely good lines.

DL: J.J. Watt, Damon Harrison, Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, Kawann Short.
Why I got better: Aaron Donald. He's better than any player (besides Watt) on last year's roster, and he's closer to Watt this year than anyone has ever been. Sure, Watt's seen competition before: Geno Atkins in 2012, Robert Quinn in '13, Von Miller in '12, and Ndamukong Suh (to a lesser extent) in '14 all came closer to Watt than the rest of the league, but none of them really challenged him. I want you to realize that I consider Watt the best defensive player I've ever seen when I say the following: Aaron Donald might be the best defensive player in the league this year. Will he maintain that? I doubt it; all those other guys fell back to Earth in the following years. But Donald might currently be having the best non-Watt defensive season I've ever seen. (That also might be totally wrong. I saw '08 Ed Reed, '05-'06 Urlacher, '08 Ray Lewis, '08 and '10 James Harrison, '07 Bob Sanders--which is underrated but deserves mention--'09 Revis, '13 Sherman, '06 Champ Bailey, etc., etc. I'm pretty sure the four best defensive seasons I've ever seen are '12 Watt, '13 Watt, '14 Watt, and '09 Revis, in some order. I'm just not sure who's #5.)

ILB: Jamie Collins, Luke Kuechly, Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall, Jasper Brinkley.
Why I got better: I didn't. David, Willis, and Wagner are a whole lot better than Kuechly, Collins, and Trevathan. In fact Kuechly, the best player on this year's squad, might be worse than all three of the studs from last year's team. Or he might beat out Wagner. Doesn't really matter.

OLB: Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Olivier Vernon, Kevin Pierre-Louis.
Why I got better: This one really depends on whether you believe Houston and Quinn were actually as great as they looked at the time I wrote my article. (I think Quinn was and Houston wasn't, even though Houston had a better season after I wrote that article.) Whereas Miller is the real deal and Mack is having an incredible season (he's the clear third-best defensive player in the league right now, behind Watt and Donald and ahead of Kuechly). I honestly give these guys the edge here. But it's slight.

CB: Josh Norman, Tyrann Mathieu, Logan Ryan, Desmond Trufant, Trumaine Johnson, Ronald Darby.
Why I got better: Yeah, I didn't. At all. Sherman and Revis trash this unit. But alas, contracts catch up to everyone eventually. I actually love my depth here a lot more than last year's team, but elite talent counts for a lot at cornerback and it's lacking here.

S: Harrison Smith, Kurt Coleman, Husain Abdullah, Deshawn Shead.
Why I got better: Again, I didn't. Smith is having a good season, but Thomas and Chancellor are just better. And once again... contracts.

ST: Brandon McManus, Ryan Quigley, Clint Gresham.
Why I got better: I didn't. Yikes. How do you get worse at special teams?

Total: $143.24 million out of $143.28, leaving me with $40,000 to spend, which I (obviously) can't spend anywhere.

Summary: The big changes here are an improved Wilson at QB; a better group of RBs; a big jump at TE; a great addition to the DL; significant regression at ILB; and a much worse secondary. Our offense is going to be fantastic, and our DL is the best of the modern era (barely beating the St. Louis Rams), but losing our linebacking edge and our entire secondary hurts a lot. If the two teams played one another, 2014's advantage in the secondary might be the deciding factor. Or maybe 2015's superior offense and better pass rush would make up for it. It's close. But given that I spent an extra $11 million this year and didn't get significantly better probably gives the win to last year's team.

Why? It's obvious: Seattle paid their players. Wilson, Wagner, Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor are all on big contracts now (some already were but most weren't), making them a lot harder to get on this team. And yes, Seattle is good enough to make this much of a difference in the overall talent of the team. Think about it: a cheap Sherman/Thomas/Chancellor/Wagner completely patches the holes in this roster, and a cheap Wilson obviously opens up a lot of money to spend. It's sad to say, but other teams just aren't producing the kind of quality talent for cheap prices that Seattle is.

And no, this doesn't mean Seattle won't be able to keep our good players. We already signed literally everyone who matters. I figured out exactly how this would happen like three years ago. There was never any risk of any of our core players walking.

Is Wilson Having The Best Five-Game Stretch Ever?

Over the first nine games of the season, Russell Wilson played pretty well, albeit not up to his usual standards. He completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards, and threw 10 TDs to 7 interceptions. His passer rating was a decent-but-not-great 91.7.

Over the last five games, however, Wilson has not only regained his past level of performance, but he has in fact exceeded it. Wait, let me rephrase: Russell Wilson's last five games might be the best five-game stretch of any quarterback in NFL history.

Over the past five games, Wilson has completed 110 of his 148 passes for a 74.3% completion rate, 1420 yards, 19 TDs (!!), 0 interceptions, 9.59 yards per attempt, and a 143.6 passer rating.

We already know Wilson's currently putting up the best numbers ever over games 10-14. But there's no reason we should limit five-game stretches to those particular five games. Any stretch, from 1-5 to 12-16, should be admissible. For this, I'm including every five-game stretch in which the QB attempted at least 100 passes and played all five games.

Here's the leaderboard, top 25 all-time, independent of which 5-week stretch we look at:

1. Warner '99 (144.8)
2. Wilson '15 (143.6)
3. Brady '07 (137.4)
4. Brady '07 (137.0)
5. Manning '13 (136.4)
6. Rodgers '11 (136.4)
7. Rodgers '11 (135.9)
8. Rodgers '11 (134.9)
9. Warner '99 (134.4)
10. Rodgers '11 (134.3)
11. Wilson '15 (133.5)
12. Brady '10 (133.3)
13. Foles '13 (133.2)
14. Brady '07 (132.5)
15. Brady '10 (132.5)
16. Warner '99 (131.4)
17. Vince Ferragamo '80 (131.1)
18. Dave Krieg '86 (131.0)
19. Young '93 (131.0)
20. Young '94 (130.5)
21. Manning '04 (130.3)
22. Brady '10 (130.2)
23. Manning '04 (130.2)
24. Rodgers '14 (129.9)
25. Romo '14 (129.0)
26. Bubby Brister '90 (129.0)

Few notes.

First of all, holy shit. Wilson just put up the second-best five-game stretch in NFL history, and only one person (Kurt Warner) is particularly close. What's more, Wilson also put up the #11 all-time five-game stretch earlier this season. And this list is almost exclusively made up of some of the greatest passing seasons of all time. That's unbelievable.

For the record, during Warner's stretch, he completed 76.3% of his passes for 10.36 Y/A, 15 TDs, and 1 int. In other words, Warner's completion percentage is slightly higher, his Y/A is significantly better, his TD% is very slightly worse, and his int% is worse as well (although one pick in 118 attempts isn't exactly bad).

It's probably worth noting a few more things: First, Warner's Rams scored 38 PPG over this stretch (the Seahawks have averaged 34.2). And second, Warner was playing with the Greatest Show on Turf, which included such future Hall-of-Famers as Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Orlando Pace, and of course Warner himself. Wilson has done almost exactly as well while playing with Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Russell Okung, and (for most of the stretch) Thomas Rawls. As much as I love the Seahawks, that's a massive talent gap. There's absolutely an argument to be made that Wilson has been better, considering.

Second. Excluding Wilson, since this season is still in progress, every player in the top 12 of this list won MVP. Foles, at #13, lost MVP to another player on this list (Manning); same with Romo at #25. (This means that every player in the top 16 either won MVP or lost it to someone else on this list.) The only players on this list who lost MVP to someone not on this list are Vince Ferragamo, Dave Krieg, Bubby Brister, and Steve Young in '93. The first three are understandable because those stretches were just crazy flukes. The fourth was just a terrible choice. In total, of the 26 entries on this list, 18 of them came as part of an MVP season.

Now consider seasons with multiple entries on the list (i.e. seasons with multiple all-time-great five-game stretches). These are Warner '99, Wilson '15, Brady '07, Rodgers '11 (four times!!), Brady '10, and Manning '04. Every one of those seasons won MVP.

Finally, let's look at the players who made the list multiple times. These are Warner, Wilson, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Young, and that's it. No Joe Montana, no Drew Brees, no Johnny Unitas or Dan Marino. Just those six.

Oh, and if you're concerned by the fact that we're just looking at five-game stretches, don't be. He's having the best second half of a season ever. And the tenth-best season of all time. And this isn't a fluke; notice, on that first list, that Wilson's 2012 season, his rookie year, had what was at the time the sixth-best second half ever (now 11th). Wilson's been keeping historic company for a while now; this is just the first time the rest of the world is starting to notice.

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An interesting thing I noticed in my research is that Wilson tends to play much better in the second half of the season than the first half. I decided to compare his numbers from each of his seasons:

2012 games 1-8: 82.4 PR

2012 games 9-16: 120.3 PR

Difference: +37.9 PR

2013 games 1-8: 99.0 PR

2013 games 9-16: 103.3 PR

Difference: +4.3 PR

2014 games 1-8: 93.1 PR

2014 games 9-16: 97.0 PR

Difference: +3.9 PR

2015 games 1-8: 95.0 PR

2015 games 9-14*: 132.6 PR

Difference: +37.6 PR

* in progress

Games 1-8 average PR: 92.4

Games 9-16 average PR: 113.3

Average difference: +20.9 PR

That's insane. In both 2012 and this year, Wilson improved by nearly 40 points of passer rating. Even averaging in the much closer '13 and '14 numbers, that's an average difference of 20.9 points from the first half of the season to the second half. Prorated to a full year, that's the difference between Rich Gannon and Brett Favre at #206 (lol) and #6 outright, behind only Rodgers, Manning, Foles, Brady, and Manning again.

Read that again. Wilson's average passer rating over the second half of the season, for his career, is equivalent to the 6th-best passing season ever. If you're wondering how he came to be the second-highest rated passer ever, that's how.

One other thing that I noticed: In all those games 1-8 combined (32 total), Wilson's Seahawks went 20-12 for a 62.5% winrate. In the games 9-16 (30 total), they went 25-5 for an 83.3% winrate. As Wilson goes, so go the Seahawks. #MVP

The Curious Case of the NFL MVP

The 2015 NFL regular season has three weeks left. About a month after the season winds to a close, the NFL will announce the winner of the NFL MVP: Cam Newton. Unfortunately, this choice will be the wrong one.

Let me note a few things: First, MVP is an ill-defined award. Is it the most valuable player, as in the player with the most delta-wins? Presumably--it's clearly not the best player relative to position¹. But how are delta-wins defined? If I take an average quarterback off a team with a very bad backup (or no backup at all), they might experience a greater loss than taking a great quarterback off a team that has an extremely promising backup (e.g. Aaron Rodgers or Steve Young). Does that mean the average quarterback is better than the great quarterback? Of course not, but he's technically more valuable.

We could resolve this problem (to an extent) by establishing a "replacement level" for a backup quarterback and ignoring the real-life backup situation on any given team. Thus we can expect the difference in play between the elite QB and the replacement-level QB, and the difference between the average QB and the replacement-level QB, to accurately reflect the two starters' relative talent gap.

Of course this brings in other complications: A great quarterback playing on a talented team is necessarily less valuable than a slightly worse quarterback playing on a very bad team (even assuming both backups are equally good). If both starting quarterbacks were to get injured, the talented team would have a much better chance to succeed than the bad team, simply because of the talent of the other players. This is true even if the talent in question had no impact on the QB's performance².

And yet, even though a quarterback on a great team has inherently less value than one on a bad team, the MVP award voters tend to vote much more heavily for quarterbacks on talented teams than those on worse teams. This is because the voters imagine that a very good QB can "carry" his team to the top of the league each year. Of course this is false; Drew Brees is by any measure an elite QB and his teams have fluctuated between mediocrity and eliteness over his career. If a team is at the top of the league, it is fair to say that the team has a lot of talent at multiple positions, not just QB. Similarly, it's obvious that a team can be very successful without having a good QB at all; does no one remember the Jets' back-to-back runs to the AFC championship, while being quarterbacked by the immortal Mark Sanchez?

That being said, I'll concede that the majority of very good teams in any given year probably have very good quarterbacks. That's true this year; of the top 10 QBs by Passer Rating, only one (Brees) has a losing record, and six have won at least eight games already this season. Meanwhile of the bottom ten, all but Teddy Bridgewater and Peyton Manning are playing on losing teams.

The correlation between Passer Rating and team wins is no surprise; it's been shown many times that Passer Rating Differential (i.e. team's passer rating minus opponent's passer rating) is a very good predictor of success³. Basically, if your passing game is much more efficient than your opponent's, you have a really good chance of winning. And since a quarterback has no control over his team's defensive efficiency (see the second footnote again if you're unsure about this), the best thing a QB can do for his team is pass efficiently.

The sports media has some basic understanding of this concept; of the 25 QB seasons that have won MVP since 1980, 14 of them led the league in passer rating⁴. Of course, this means that 11 didn't. Some of these are reasonable--Jim Harbaugh (yeah, that Jim Harbaugh) led the league in passer rating in '95, while MVP Brett Favre finished a very close second in PR while throwing for substantially higher volume⁵, playing on a better team, and being a much higher-profile player. Some are mistakes, but are at least understandable mistakes--there's only so many MVPs you can give to Steve Young (although this limit doesn't seem to exist for Peyton). And some are huge, obvious, how-do-you-mess-up-that-bad mistakes, like 1987 John Elway (scroll down to Part IV).

So here's where we stand: It's reasonable to focus on the quarterbacks of good teams for our MVP discussions, and the best way to evaluate a QB's contributions to his team's success is through his passer rating. So how do this year's passer stack up?

#1 is Russell Wilson, who deserves MVP consideration but won't get it because the media mistakenly thinks he was bad weeks 1-8 (he had a passer rating of 95.0 to Cam's 78.1; more on this in a bit).

#2 is Carson Palmer, who isn't getting as much MVP consideration as he deserves, and I have no idea why. The Cardinals are at least as good a team as the Panthers, and Palmer is playing far better than Newton.

#3 is Andy Dalton, whose injury will probably remove him from MVP consideration, but who also very much deserves (deserved?) to be in the conversation.

#4 is Tom Brady, who led the conversation until recently, because voters have short memories and don't realize that Brady's early-season success isn't any less valuable than Cam's late-season success (and Brady's been better across the whole season).

#5-8 will not get consideration, which is reasonable; if you're this far down the list, odds are someone above you has been playing better.

#9 is Cam Newton.

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Q-and-A. Let's go.

Q: But running.
A: Cam is, of course, a very effective runner. But how much value does his running add to his team, and--more importantly--is it enough to make up for his lackluster passing? FootballOutsiders, as of this week, has Cam ranked 15th and 16th respectively in DVOA and DYAR⁶, their two big metrics. His rushing production is also tied for first, with Wilson, among quarterbacks.

If we add all the quarterbacks' rushing contributions to their passing numbers, Cam moves up by an appreciable amount--the value of his rushing is about 25% the value of his passing. But given that his passing wasn't all that valuable to begin with, the result is uninspiring: he still ranks only 15th in DYAR, jumping only Matt Stafford. (I can't speculate as to where his DVOA would end up, but given that his rushing DVOA is only 23rd in the league, I doubt it would move up that much.) Meanwhile Wilson moves into 4th place, jumping Roethlisberger and trailing only Palmer, Brady, and Dalton.

Now, it may be fair to say that not all the value Cam's legs bring to the table is encapsulated by DVOA/DYAR. And yes, the touchdowns are nice, although I'm somewhat unimpressed by short-yardage rushing scores (any QB can do that, but most just prefer to hand off; the fact that it's Cam running it and not Mike Tolbert doesn't actually add much value). But the idea that Cam's rushing is so much more valuable than anyone else's that it overcomes the massive gap in passing efficiency is absurd to me.


Q: Cam's playing with bad, drop-happy receivers. Ted Ginn Jr. is his #1, for crying out loud. And didn't you see his numbers throwing to all his receivers besides Ginn and Olsen? Clearly, he's being held back by his receivers.
A: It's true that the Panthers have a worse-than average drop rate, but it's not as bad as Panthers fans make it out to be (and notably better than the Patriots'). Their rate of 4.8% is about 1.1% worse than the average of 3.7%. That's a difference of about four passes of Cam's that got dropped over the course of the entire season. Four passes. Is that really enough to make up the difference in efficiency?⁷

It's also worth noting that the Panthers' high drop rate is almost exclusively due to Ginn, who is tied for second in the league in drops and is 12th in the league in drop percentage (among receivers with 10+ receptions). The Panthers' second most drop-happy receiver is Greg Olson, who is tied for 38th in the league and has dropped only 3 of the 108 balls thrown at him. That's about as much consistency as you can ask for.

As for the stat about Cam's numbers when not throwing to Ginn or Olsen: Newton overwhelmingly targets those two receivers. They have 80 and 108 targets, respectively; no one else has more than 50. In fact, nearly half of Newton's attempts, completions, passing yardage, and touchdowns come from those two players. It shouldn't be surprising that opposing defenses hone in on them. Besides, if Ginn and Olsen are so terrible and his other receivers are so much better, why in the world doesn't Cam simply throw to them? Answer: Because Ginn and Olsen are very good receivers. Ginn is a huge deep threat, and his 17.4 yards per reception ranks 6th in the league. And Olsen's 65 receptions are t-3rd in the league for tight ends, and his 969 receiving yards are second among TEs and 13th overall.


Q: The Panthers are winning games. Cam's the quarterback of the best team in the NFL. Why is this so hard to understand?
A: First of all, there is some disagreement on the point of the Panthers being the best team in the league. But I won't bother arguing that here. Second, and more to the point, we've already established that a team can be successful despite having a non-elite quarterback, or mediocre despite having an elite one. Cam doesn't get the award just for playing on the best team. Yes, the only time we saw a 16-0 season it was (partially) because Tom Brady was having an all-time great year. That doesn't necessarily mean that every 16-0 season must feature a QB having an all-time great year (obviously; Cam isn't, and the Panthers definitely might go 16-0).

Third, every quarterback I've talked about so far is playing for a Super Bowl contender. The fact that the Panthers have a couple more wins (or, in the case of the Seahawks, quite a few more wins) than the rest of the teams isn't necessarily attributable to Cam's performance. Which is also obvious, because Cam is barely a top-10 passer this year⁸ (and maybe not even that, if you trust FootballOutsiders, which you should). If he's not carrying the Panthers with his arm, and he's not doing it with his running, then what exactly is he doing so much better than every other quarterback to allow his team to go undefeated?


Q: Cam's been more consistent than Wilson, or anyone else, this year. That's why the Panthers have gone undefeated. And that's why he should win MVP.
A: Good point. Except it's completely wrong. Over the first eight weeks of the season, Cam put up a passer rating of 78.1, to go with his 1523 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. The only impressive thing here is that the Panthers were able to go undefeated over that stretch despite Cam's mediocre play. (Notice how much better the Seahawks started playing when Wilson improved his game. That's value.)

Wilson, on the other hand, put up a 95.0 passer rating over the first eight weeks of the season. He threw for 1878 yards, 9 TDs, and 6 interceptions. And although Cam had more rushing touchdowns⁹, Wilson had more rushing yards and rush yards per attempt. But really, if this doesn't convince you that Cam didn't carry his team over the first eight weeks of the season, nothing will.

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If at this stage you're still on the Cam-wagon, there's probably nothing I can say to convince you otherwise. And as I said to begin the article, unless something dramatic happens, Cam Newton will win the MVP. He just won't deserve it.

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1) Ideally, MVP should be the best player relative to their position. An MVP which can only be won by quarterbacks is a stupid award (unless it's like the Cy Young and there's also a separate MVP award. Some people say that's what OPOY does in the NFL, but OPOY is also massively biased towards QBs and RBs, going to a player at any other position twice [both times it was Jerry Rice]). But if we're going to be literal, MVP should have gone to a QB every year of the modern era. Which, of course, it also hasn't; Alan Page, Lawrence Taylor, Mark Moseley, and 18 RBs have won the award. And while Page and Taylor are maybe the two greatest defensive players ever, they still weren't as valuable as a great quarterback (although to be perfectly honest Page might have been). (I'm pretty sure Moseley won as a joke.) As for the RBs: the value of an elite RB is massively overstated in the league today. First of all, the vast majority of RBs, including and especially elite ones, are a product of their offensive lines; look at Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, DeMarco Murray, Emmitt Smith, and every other running back not named Barry Sanders or Marshawn Lynch. And second of all, an elite running back on a bad team can't actually carry the team (despite what the 2012 MVP voters thought). Of the seven players who have rushed for 2000 yards in a season, exactly one of them was on a team that won more than 10 games (Terrell Davis, on the '98 Broncos). Meanwhile Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have a combined three seasons of single-digit wins (out of 29). That's the value of a QB versus a running back.

2) A quarterback's performance is tied, to some extent, to the quality of his receiving talent, and to the quality of his offensive line. All available data shows that a quarterback's performance is not related to the performance of his running game or defense, despite common belief to the contrary.

3) 36% of NFL champions (since 1940) finished first in PRD, 60% finished top three, and 95% finished top ten. It's kind of amazing that this holds true even back in the days before passing was a big part of the NFL, but it does.

4) In reverse chronological order: '11 Rodgers, '10 Brady, '07 Brady, '04 Manning, '03 McNair, '01 and '99 Warner, '94 and '92 Young, '89 Montana, '88 Esiason, '84 Marino, '81 Anderson, and '80 Sipe.

5) I'll be the first person to tell you that volume is not the be-all, end-all of passing stats. In fact, it's usually massively overrated (see here and here). The ONE exception is that if two players are playing at comparably high levels of efficiency and one has significantly more volume, it's reasonable to say that he's contributed more overall value to his team. This does NOT apply if there's a big gap in efficiency or if the passers in question have low efficiency.

6) Essentially, DVOA is per-play value added, while DYAR is total value added. But--and this is important--DYAR is still based on efficiency. Higher volume with less efficiency produces a lower DYAR, while relatively small volume with very high efficiency can produce a high DYAR. This is also why high volume at low efficiency is not a good thing, but high volume at high efficiency is (see footnote 5).

7) Of course not.

8) In fact, the only passing stats in which Cam ranks top-5 on the season are TDs, TD%, and Yards per completion, all of which, I'd argue, are due at least in part to--are you ready?--Ted Ginn. Having a deep threat like Ginn improves your performance in exactly those areas (as well as the yards-per-attempt stats, where Cam is top-10 but not top-5). Maybe that's the thread linking the '07 Patriots and the '15 Panthers! I have goosebumps. (Just kidding.)

9) For the record, I'm not at all convinced that Cam's rushing touchdowns are all that valuable. The Panthers have one of the best short-yardage backs in the league in Mike Tolbert and one of the better surviving (non-injured) RBs in the league in Jonathan Stewart. Is running the ball at the goal-line with Newton really that much better than running with Tolbert or Stewart? Surely the benefit isn't big enough to overcome Cam's weaknesses. This all stems from the idea of duplicability, which asks the question: "If Cam didn't rush for that touchdown, would the Panthers have gotten it?" In most cases, I think the answer is yes. Whereas if you ask the analogous question about Wilson ("If Wilson didn't make that throw, would the Seahawks have scored?"), I suspect the answer would be no in almost every case. This is actually a great way to assess value, but unfortunately it's almost impossible to do in the NFL.

Redrafting for the Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders suck at drafting. This isn't entirely their fault; up until recently they enjoyed some of the worst ownership and front office management in NFL history. The Raiders aren't the worst franchise in NFL history, and as recently as 2002 they even made the Super Bowl, losing to the immortal Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their groundbreaking cover-2 defensive scheme. This makes it okay to make fun of them. In this article, I'm going to go back through each NFL draft since 2003 (the year after the Raiders' Super Bowl loss) and look at some of the picks they COULD have made which, in all likelihood, would have kept their franchise at the top of the league for that entire span. I can do this because of hindsight and because I'm a better GM than whoever the Raiders' GM has been for the past 12 years.

2003 NFL Draft:

• 1.31: Nnamdi Asomugha -> Nnamdi Asomugha. No change. I actually think this was a pretty good pick. Nnamdi was a great corner for a number of years.
• 1.32: Tyler Brayton -> Lance Briggs. I know, Tyler who? Haha. Stupid Raiders.
• 2.63: Teyo Johnson -> Jason Witten. This probably woulda helped.
• 3.83: (Expansion) Sam Williams -> Asante Samuel. Who? Oh, just a four-time Pro Bowler and future All Pro. And two-time Super Bowl winner. Stupid dumb Raiders.
• 3.96: Justin Fargas -> Dan Koppen. Koppen is one of the best centers of the era and the Raiders would have benefited hugely from him.
• 4.129: Shurron Pierson -> Robert Mathis. Durrrr.
• 5.167: Doug Gabriel -> Cato June. Not that great a player. Still a Pro Bowler. Unlike Gabriel. Lmao.
• 6.204: Dustin Rykert -> Yeremiah Bell. Decent safety. Also, did you know that David Tyree was drafted in 2003? That seems really early. But then again, his big play was in 2007. That's only four years. Time moves hella fast.
• 7.246: Siddeeq Shabazz -> Kevin Walter. It's entirely possible some other player at the bottom of the draft is better. I don't recognize any of their names.
• 7.262: Ryan Hoag -> Ryan Hoag. Not because he's good. He's just the last player in the draft. I guess they could have taken Tony Romo, Kris Dielman, or Antonio Gates, all of whom went undrafted............. But that would just make this whole thing unfair. (Ha.)

2004 NFL Draft: (Now it gets fun!)

• 1.2: Robert Gallery -> Larry Fitzgerald. Oakland had the second overall pick in a draft which sent seven of its first eight picks, and ten of its first 14, to the Pro Bowl. Guess which team in the top eight whiffed on their selection? Say it with me, folks: That's so Raiders!
• 2.45: Jake Grove -> Darnell Dockett. ...How is this the Raiders' next selection? I really wanted to catch Bob Sanders at 2.44, but noooo. Also wow the Cardinals killed it in '04.
• 3.67: Stuart Schweigert -> Matt Schaub. I know. But by now Rich Gannon is old as fuck/retired and we need someone better than Kerry Collins to step in eventually. In real life, the Raiders never found that quarterback. In fake life, Schaub can be a placeholder.
• 4.99: Carlos Francis -> Jared Allen. Hell yes. One of the greatest DEs ever (yes, really) in the 4th? I'll take it!
• 5.134: Johnnie Morant -> Michael Turner. A franchise RB in the fifth? Hell yes. Unless he learned everything he knows from playing behind LaDainian Tomlinson (and alongside Lorenzo Neal and Darren Sproles in what was, with Philip Rivers, the greatest backfield of all time).
• 6.166: Shawn Johnson -> Andy Lee. Yeah, the punter. We're going to draft a lot of punters in this article, basically on principle. He's still a better football player than Johnson (who went on to win a few gold medals in gymnastics in 2008). Still a little surprised she got drafted.
• 6.182: Cody Spencer -> Patrick Crayton. Maybe. Idk.
• 7.245: Courtney Anderson -> Scott Wells. Yep, another Pro Bowl center. CUZ THEY NEED MORE.
• 7.255: Andre Sommersell -> Andre Sommersell. You guessed it! Mr. Irrelevant. I guess the Raiders are just the best at being--okay I can't even finish that joke. Wait, yes I can. Irrelevant.

2005 NFL Draft: (and now it gets sad.)

• 1.23: Fabian Washington -> Aaron Rodgers. Yeah. One pick off. Fabian started 45 games for the Raiders. Rodgers has won two MVPs and will be a Hall of Famer one day.
• 2.38: Stanford Routt -> Vincent Jackson. Because Fitzgerald isn't enough. (I know, I need to draft more offensive linemen.)
• 3.69: Andrew Walter -> Justin Tuck. Yeah.
• 3.78: Kirk Morrison -> Evan Mathis. Yeeeaaah.
• 6.175: Anttaj Hawthorne -> Chris Myers. I guess.
• 6.212: Ryan Riddle -> Derek Anderson. I guess again. So now our QB depth chart goes Rodgers -> Schaub -> Anderson -> Collins. I guessssss.
• 6.214: Pete McMahon -> Jay Ratliff. Who was somehow really good from 2008-2011, but I don't remember him at all???

2006 NFL Draft: (and it keeps getting sadder...)

• 1.7: Michael Huff -> Haloti Ngata. No comment.
• 2.38: Thomas Howard -> Devin Hester. Why yes I did just draft a kick and punt returner over Greg Jennings, Andrew Whitworth, and Tim Jennings.
• 3.69: Paul McQuistan -> Jahri Evans. Slight upgrade at OL here.
• 4.101: Darnell Bing (hahahahaha) -> Brandon Marshall. Because Rodgers throwing to Fitzgerald and Vincent Jackson wasn't enough.
• 6.176: Kevin Boothe -> Antoine Bethea. Cuz when I have this offense who needs a line right?
• 7.214: Chris Morris -> Cortland Finnegan. More like Cortland innegan. (If you don't get this joke it's because Andre Johnson beat the F out of him.)
• 7.255: Kevin McMahan -> Kevin McMahan. Yep. Mr. Irrelevant. Insert my joke that I already made.

2007 NFL Draft: (the sadness, seemingly, crests...)

• 1.1: JaMarcus Russell -> Patrick Willis. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH ohhh HAHAHAHAHAH ahhhhahaahHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Ahem. So JaMarcus Russell was--hahahem--a bust. Willis, on the other hand, is a future Hall of Famer. So yeah. This is happening.
• 2.38: Zach Miller -> Ryan Kalil. Miller was actually a decent pick, but Kalil is just better. I apparently never draft tackles. I didn't want to draft Joe Thomas because Willis is way better. So.
• 3.65: Quentin Moses -> Marshal Yanda. Who is a guard. Yep. (We're gonna play him at tackle shhhh don't tell.)
• 3.91: Mario Henderson -> Jermon Bushrod
• 3.99: Johnnie Lee Higgins -> Dashon Goldson
• 4.100: Michael Bush -> Le'Ron McClain
• 4.110: John Bowie -> Corey Graham. This is the last good player in this draft.
• 5.138: Jay Richardson -> C.J. Ah You. Literally just for his name.
• 5.165: Eric Frampton -> Brandon Fields. The punter.
• 6.175: Oren O'Neal -> Nick Folk. The kicker.
• 7.254: Jonathan Holland -> Ramzee Robinson. Two players left in the draft. They chose the wrong one.

2008 NFL Draft:

• 1.4: Darren McFadden -> Ryan Clady. Let's finally, finally give ARod the great left tackle he's always deserved and never gotten.
• 4.100: Tyvon Branch -> Josh Sitton. And let's go ahead and throw in an All-Pro level guard to go with him. Also, how the hell did the Raiders not have a single pick between 4th and 100th overall in this draft?? What a terrible franchise.
• 4.125: Arman Shields -> Carl Nicks. Because this is the year we're drafting all our offensive linemen. (Also let me point out that we now have five--count them, five--All-Pro offensive guards on this roster. Fuck yesssss.)
• 6.169: Trevor Scott -> Pierre Garcon. I guess. Uh.
• 7.226: Chaz Schilens -> Justin Forsett. In case Turner burns out and needs a replacement. (He will.)

2009 NFL Draft:

• 1.7: Darrius Heyward-Bey -> Clay Matthews. Whoops.
• 2.47: Michael Mitchell -> LeSean McCoy. You can't have too many talented offensive weapons. Although we do have kind of a lot.
• 3.71: Matt Shaughnessy -> Louis Vasquez. Kinda hoping you can't have too many elite offensive linemen either. (We're playing him at RT.)
• 4.124: Louis Murphy -> Thomas Morstead. Because punters. Why not.
• 4.126: Slade Norris -> Zach Miller. Just to fuck with people.
• 6.199: Stryker Sulak -> Pat McAfee. The year of the punter.
• 6.202: Brandon Myers -> Julian Edelman. There is not much talent in this draft.

2010 NFL Draft:

• 1.8: Rolando McClain -> Earl Thomas. Hold on tight, folks. This might be a rough one.
• 2.44: Lamarr Houston -> NaVorro Bowman. We just hit the iceberg. The Titanic is going down.
• 3.69: Jared Veldheer -> Jimmy Graham. Leo DiCaprio is drowing.
• 4.106: Bruce Campbell -> Aaron Hernandez. Different application this time, but inarguably true, say it with me, That's so Raiders!
• 4.108: Jacoby Ford -> Kam Chancellor. Cuz he's totally more valuable than Geno Atkins, right??
• 5.138: Walter McFadden -> Greg Hardy. I have a bug bite on my arm and it fucking itches. What is this bullshit? I thought I lived in a temperate (albeit wet) city, not the fucking woods.
• 6.190: Travis Goethel -> Antonio Brown. NEAR, FAR, WHEREVER YOU ARE
• 7.215: Jeremy Ware -> Marc Mariani. This guy made a Pro Bowl. Who knew?
• 7.251: Stevie Brown -> Tim Toone. Just cuz I want the Raiders to have more Mr. Irrelevants. It just seems so... uh... applicable.

2011 NFL Draft: (Rapidly approaching the present)

• 2.48: Stefen Wisniewski -> Justin Houston. This one was actually a good pick. I mean, Houston's one of the ten best defensive players in the league today (or at least he was when I wrote this), so obviously we're picking him, but still. Credit where credit's due. Which, for the Raiders, is really, really infrequently.
• 3.81: DeMarcus Van Dyke -> Jordan Cameron
• 3.92: Joseph Barksdale -> Julius Thomas
• 4.113: Chimdi Chekwa -> Richard Sherman. No big deal, just an all-time great corner slipping past while you take Chimdi freaking Chekwa.
• 4.125: Taiwan Jones -> Jason Kelce. And a dude named Taiwan Jones. Literally a villain from a kung fu flick. Well, not literally.
• 5.148: Denarius Moore -> Byron Maxwell. Now we're going to play the "drafting Seahawks defensive players" game.
• 6.181: Richard Gordon -> Bruce Miller. And also this. #stillTheBestDraftInRaidersHistory
• 7.241: David Ausberry -> Malcolm Smith. And the SUPER BOWL MVP!! Remember when people who don't really watch the Seahawks thought Smith was actually an integral part of our defense, and not just a substitute linebacker who got a few lucky plays in the Super Bowl? And then they didn't figure it out until he was not starting the next year and we let him walk the year after that? Yeah. Sports media are stupid (except this blog!).

2012 NFL Draft:

• 3.95: Tony Bergstrom -> Kirk Cousins. Hahahahaha holy shit the Raiders didn't actually have a single pick before Russell Wilson, the biggest QB draft steal since Tom fucking Brady, went at #75. They failed to have a top-75 pick the ONE YEAR it could have saved their franchise. Note that they did, in fact, have a pick higher than #95: they sacrificed a 3rd rounder to pick Terrell Pryor. The best part? Even that wouldn't have been early enough to take Wilson! And once they spent it on Pryor? They couldn't have even taken Nick Foles! The deepest QB draft in YEARS, and the Raiders completely blank it! So I gave them Kirk Cousins. The guy who backed up the biggest disappointment in this draft. Because this, all of this, every word of it... Well, That's so Raiders!
• 4.129: Miles Burris -> Josh Norman. He's overrated but on the Raiders he's correctly rated.
• 5.158: Jack Crawford -> Blair Walsh. We're taking a kicker in the fifth.
• 5.168: Juron Criner -> Justin Bethel. We're also taking a special teams player in the fifth.
• 6.189: Christo Bilukidi -> J.R. Sweezy. Let's take the two Seahawks big people who I used to get confused back in 2012.
• 7.230: Nathan Stupar -> Greg Scruggs. The sad part is that none of my joke selections are actually any worse than the Raiders' real selections. I've been following football religiously for a decade, and I haven't heard of a single player the Raiders drafted in 2012. But that doesn't include Terrell Pryor, because he's a Seahawk for life.

2013 NFL Draft:

• 1.12: D.J. Hayden -> DeAndre Hopkins. Silly Raiders. Taking a second consecutive player named D.J. (after Fluker at 1.11) instead of taking the Next Big Thing at wide receiver. That's pretty Raiders. But not quite Raiders enough to earn a bold. It's insufficiently Raiders.
• 2.42: Menelik Watson -> Le'Veon Bell. We're drafting running backs now.
• 3.66: Sio Moore -> J.J. Wilcox. Whoops, wrong player with the initials J.J.W. [The right pick here is Tyrann Mathieu, but I wanted to make this joke.]
• 4.112: Tyler Wilson -> Kyle Juszczyk. Aaand they picked the wrong player with the last name of Wilson. So instead I'm giving them a player whose name they can't pronounce (but you can lol: yooz-check) as punishment.
• 6.172: Nick Kasa -> Andre Ellington. The ass end of this draft sucks. Literally gonna fill in the next few spots with whatever names I happen to recognize. #sportswriting
• 6.181: Latavius Murray -> Spencer Ware.
• 6.184: Mychal Rivera -> Demetrius McCray. Don't ask me how I know this name.
• 6.205: Stacy McGee -> Charles Johnson. Totally.
• 7.209: Brice Butler -> Ryan Seymour. Kinda sounds like Richard Seymour.
• 7.233: David Bass -> B.J. Daniels. Rodgers's heir apparent, apparently.

2014 NFL Draft:

• 1.5: Khalil Mack -> Aaron Donald. Wait, what? The Raiders make their first really, really good draft pick since... uh... Steve Wisniewski in 2011, and I'm taking it away? Well, yes. Because as good as Mack has been, Donald has been better. Haha. Raiders.
• 2.36: Derek Carr -> Derek Carr. Sure. Why the fuck not.
• 3.81: Gabe Jackson -> Chris Watt. Through the powers of Chris Watt and J.J. Wilcox combined, the Raiders have drafted... Chris Wilcox! [The right pick here is Devonta Freeman, but I needed to make this joke.]
• 4.107: Justin Ellis -> Cassius Marsh. Working off my theory that all athletes named Cassius are amazing. And my alternate theory that I won't recognize any non-Seahawks for the remainder of this draft.
• 4.116: Keith McGill -> Kevin Pierre-Louis. In three years y'all are gonna be saying "Holy shit, who saw KPL's massive breakout coming?" The answer is me. Just wait.
• 7.219: Travis Carrie -> Brandon Watts. Still desperately trying to draft JJ Watt.
• 7.235: Shelby Harris -> Will Smith. Hahaha.
• 7.247: Jonathan Dowling -> Michael Sam. Yeah I did.

2015 NFL Draft:

• 1.4: Amari Cooper -> Amari Cooper. Fine.
• 2.35: Mario Edwards, Jr. -> Frank Clark.
• 3.68: Clive Walford -> Tyler Lockett. Seriously? Drafting a football player named Clive the pick before the all-time great Tyler Lockett?
• 4.128: Jon Feliciano -> Stefon Diggs.
• 5.140: Ben Heeney -> J.J. Nelson. This close.
• 5.161: Neiron Ball -> Michael Bennett. Not that Michael Bennett.
• 6.179: Max Valles -> Kristjan Sokoli. The revolution is here.
• 7.218: Anthony Morris -> Bobby Hart.
• 7.221: Andre Debose -> Ryan Murphy.
• 7.242: Dexter McDonald -> Xzavier Dickson. I'm not completely convinced that this name isn't the product of Wikipedia vandalism.

Final Roster: (just the good players, and assuming 100% talent retention, which should be easy with a genius GM like me):

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins
RB: LeVeon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Michael Turner, Justin Forsett
FB: Le’Ron McClain, Kyle Juszczyk, Bruce Miller
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, Vincent Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins
TE: Jason Witten, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Julius Thomas
OT: Ryan Clady, Marshal Yanda, Louis Vasquez
OG: Evan Mathis, Jahri Evans, Josh Sitton, Carl Nicks
C: Dan Koppen, Jason Kelce, Ryan Kalil
DE: Jared Allen, Robert Mathis, Justin Tuck, Greg Hardy
DT: Haloti Ngata, Aaron Donald, Jay Ratliff, Darnell Dockett,
OLB: Justin Houston, Lance Briggs, Clay Matthews
MLB: Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman
CB: Richard Sherman, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Cortland Finnegan, Josh Norman, Byron Maxwell
S: Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Antoine Bethea, Dashon Goldson
K: Blair Walsh
P: Andy Lee
KR/PR: Devin Hester
ST: Justin Bethel

2015 Rookie Report (Predictions Update)

At 1:30 AM on April 30th of this year, I realized that the NFL draft was happening the next day (or rather, that day, but we call that "the next day" because otherwise terminology gets messy and annoying). I wrote up a number of predictions for the top-ranked players in the draft, based on whatever tape I watched of them, drunk, that morning. I realize now that that was a Thursday night. Don't judge my lifestyle. Here's the initial writeup. Now to the players!

Leonard Williams:
PREDICTIONS: I thought Williams looked slow off the line and in general, that he was bad at getting off blocks, that his tackling skills were lacking, and that he lacked some hustle. I was impressed by his ability to dodge blocks and his awareness. I thought he looked like a bust.
RESULTS: So far Williams has done nothing. He has one sack and three tackles for loss, total, this season. That's bad. Of course he's a rookie, and he might still be good, but don't hold your breath.
COMMENTS: I'm good at predicting when extremely highly-touted defensive line prospects are going to bust. Remember when I called Clowney to "bust" (i.e. play much worse than his draft stock)? No? It's right here, preserved for all eternity. That comment, by the way, is so fucking accurate (and poorly received) that they should call me Cassandra. (Clowney, coincidentally, has exactly one sack and four TFL on the season.)

Jameis Winston:
PREDICTIONS: I thought Jameis had questions on accuracy and decision-making. Most of my other comments are pretty technical and I haven't watched enough TB games to determine how accurate they are.
RESULTS: Winston's accuracy has been pretty bad so far this year (57.7% completion rate), which also reflects his decision-making. He hasn't been a particularly good quarterback so far, but I like to give QBs some time to develop in the NFL; it takes longer for them than for players at other positions.
COMMENTS: As long as you have that Reddit comment fresh in your mind, I'd like to remind everyone that I HARD called Manziel to bust. #Cassandra

Marcus Mariota:
PREDICTIONS: I liked Mariota's accuracy and pocket presence, as well as his speed. Again, I haven't watched enough Titans games to know how accurate my technical comments were, but I'm assuming they're all perfectly insightful and 100% accurate.
RESULTS: Mariota has had two amazing games, some decent ones, and some bad ones. Notice, please, his completion rate of 65.2%, which is very solid for a rookie (and a far cry better than Winston's).
COMMENTS: MariGOATa will rise.

Dante Fowler Jr.:
PREDICTIONS: I liked Fowler's pass-rushing versatility and ability to get off blocks. I also liked his hustle.
RESULTS: Fowler tore his ACL in training camp and is in the process of missing the entire season.
COMMENTS: Knee injuries suck. But they're not life-threatening. The two scariest injuries I've ever seen had nothing to do with the knee. The first, chronologically speaking, was the Johnny Knox hit. Don't look it up if you haven't seen it. He's alive, thankfully, but he had a severe spinal injury that forced his retirement. The second injury (again, chronologically) was Ricardo Lockette's in the last Seahawks game. It obviously wasn't as severe as Knox's, but the way that he wasn't moving after he hit the turf scared the shit out of me. I never want to see someone die on the gridiron. Unless it's, you know, important, like a league game or something.

Ereck Flowers:
PREDICTIONS: I liked Flowers a LOT as both a run- and pass-blocker.
RESULTS: It's hard to say. I don't have access to PFF's special stats, but his name does come up in their latest writeup. They find him unprepared for the LT position, which is reasonable for a rookie (it's a HARD position to come out and excel at). I'd hold off on judging Flowers, but I'm optimistic.
COMMENTS: I don't love all the love that Joe Thomas gets at the LT position. I feel like with the retirement of the greatest generation of left tackles the league has ever seen (that would be Walter Jones, Jonathan Ogden, and Orlando Pace, in that order), everyone was looking for the Next Big Thing, because they didn't realize that those three guys (along with Anthony Munoz) were three of the four greatest left tackles ever. Joe Thomas has been good. He's even been great. But he doesn't hold a candle to the worst of those guys (Pace, who still should have been a first-ballot HOFer), and he certainly doesn't merit the conversation that's inevitably going to take place in about six years when people start wondering whether he belongs on Mt. Rushmore with them. Spoilers: He doesn't. #Cassandra

Brandon Scherff:
PREDICTIONS: I liked Scherff as a run-blocker but not as a pass-blocker. My recommendation was to draft him to play a guard position, since left tackles who can't handle pro-level pass rushes often excel when pushed inside.
RESULTS: Again, it's hard to say. Washington took my advice (you're fucking welcome) and moved him to guard, but I haven't watched enough Redskins games to know how he's doing. PFF comments that the interior hasn't been great at pass blocking, and even mentions his name, but they don't actually comment on his performance.
COMMENTS: Continuing the Joe Thomas train of thought--the really tragic thing is that some young statistically-minded fool might come along and say "Well, Thomas had five [or seven, or nine] first-team all-pro selections, while Walter Jones only had four. So Thomas was better." Wrong. Because who's the second-best LT since '09? No one. Whereas the second- and third-best LTs of Jones's era were the third- and fourth-best LTs of all time, respectively. Young fools make the exact same mistake with Tony Gonzalez, thinking he's the GOAT when really he was just getting FTAP nods over the likes of Alge Crumpler.

Bud Dupree:
PREDICTIONS: I had a hard time figuring out what Dupree's role in the defense was. He just chilled in space. I also found him bad at coverage and pass-rushing, and found his balance lacking. Basically I didn't like him.
RESULTS: Somehow, Dupree has a decent 4 sacks, but still only 3 TFL. That actually implies that the sacks might be flukey, since really disruptive defensive linemen should be busting up plays even if they don't get sacks. (e.g. JJ Watt and Michael Bennett, with 15 and 12 TFL respectively, both have more than 37% of their tackles for loss. Whereas Dupree has just under 19%. Clowney has 19.1% and Williams has 11.1%. #busts). So Dupree might not be as bad as I thought, but he still might be. Sacks can be misleading.
COMMENTS: Did you know that in Titans @ Texans in week 8, JJ Watt recorded not only 1.5 sacks but also an additional 10 QB hits? That's ten instances where Watt got to the QB (Zach Mettenberger) and knocked him over just after Mettenberger released the ball. TEN TIMES. For context, the average team in the league right now has about 44 team QB hits. Watt produced almost a quarter of that, by himself, in one game. If even half of those had gone for sacks (in general around a third of them do), Watt would have sniffed the single-game sack record IN ADDITION to his five extra QB hits. Oh, and remember this? When Mettenberger took a jab at Watt on video and Deadspin called him a dead man? Yeah. Don't piss off JJ Watt.

Danny Shelton:
PREDICTIONS: Deceptively fast for his size; good at getting off blocks; good tackler.
RESULTS: Shelton has done nothing so far. But sit tight.
COMMENTS: Shelton was a beast at Washington. But I'm mad at UW right now because of their shitty policy toward post-bacs so I'm cutting this blurb short.

Melvin Gordon:
PREDICTIONS: I liked Gordon's vision but wasn't blown away by his speed or his ability to break tackles or stay up. As such, I expected him to be mediocre, competent, but never elite, and essentially dependent on his offensive line.
RESULTS: Exactly that. Gordon's been mediocre so far this year. I could see him doing a little better, but not blowing up like a certain other running back on this list.
COMMENTS: I mentioned in my first writeup for Gordon that to be successful in the NFL, you usually want a running back who's either insanely fast (think Chris Johnson, being gone the instant they hit the open field) or amazing at breaking tackles (think Marshawn Lynch, who's virtually impossible to bring down with only one or two guys). If you have a guy who's just competent across the board in college and doesn't particularly excel at anything, odds are that guy's not going to be anything special at the pro level. This is as opposed to a position like quarterback, where if your QB is successful in college by virtue of some singular facet (e.g. being huge or having an amazing offensive line--coughManziel), they probably won't be good enough in general to succeed in the NFL. Gimmicky quarterbacks don't make it in pro football, unless they're Michael Vick and they're so insanely good at running the ball that even pro defenses can't stop them.

Todd Gurley:
PREDICTIONS: I didn't like Gurley's blocking, but I loved his running. He looked fast on tape and showed an ability to stay up a lot longer than Gordon. I liked his vision and his elusiveness. I thought he'd be a great runner even if he was never a great blocker.
RESULTS: Hashtag nailed it (although I haven't watched many Rams games so I have no idea how he's blocking). If you don't know Gurley's name by now you haven't been watching football. After not playing/barely playing in weeks 1-3, Gurley exploded with four straight games of 120+ rushing yards (on good averages, too). His game against Minnesota is his weakest of the sequence, but Minnesota's defense is sneaky amazing this season.
COMMENTS: I didn't expect quite this level of dominance from Gurley, but I'm glad to see him doing well. I just wish it wasn't for the Rams. St. Louis hasn't had a winning record since '03 (that's right), and I want it to stay that way.*

* For kicks I looked at the last winning, and last losing, seasons for each of the 32 teams in the NFL. The Rams have only the second-longest dry spell--the Raiders haven't had a winning season since 2002, when they made (and lost) the Super Bowl. The third-longest streak is a tie between the Browns and the Jags, both of whom had winning seasons in 2007. The longest streak without a losing season belongs to the Patriots, who haven't had a losing season since 2000. Runners-up are Steelers, who haven't had one since '03, and Ravens, since '07.

Cameron Erving:
PREDICTIONS: I liked Erving as a center, particularly his run blocking, but not so much as a left tackle. Again, bad pass-blocking tackles can often be very effective as interior linemen (with some adjustment).
RESULTS: Erving isn't starting for the Browns, but that isn't a shot at him; the Browns' line this year is AMAZING. Erving will get some playtime if the Browns get unlucky with injuries, and definitely if they have some FA departures, but odds are I won't be able to judge this prediction for a while.

And with that, I'm done.

Fantasy Football Update: My Love/Hate Is Amazing

I did a fantasy football Love/Hate earlier this season and all my choices were amazing (even the ones that weren't). Observe.

My 2015 Loves:

Marshawn Lynch, RB, ADP 5.4. Marshawn spent part of the season injured. There's no accounting for injury, and I wouldn't hold this against Berry (unless it was a situation where injury was predictable, which are rarer than you think), so I won't hold it against myself either. There's also a decent chance he tears it up for the rest of the season and ends up finishing top-10 anyway, which is really all you can reasonably ask for from a first-round running back. But probably not.

Calvin Johnson, WR, ADP 18.0. Calvin's statline is hurt by a stretch of three games from weeks 3-5 where he did jack shit (16 total points), which makes him look mediocre. The thing is, those games were against Denver, Seattle, and Arizona, who are the three scariest pass defenses in the league. Of course, now he's injured too, so that's fun.

Randall Cobb, WR, ADP 22.8. Again, Cobb has been playing injured for the majority of the season. This is pretty clearly why he started out averaging 16 points per game for the first three weeks of the season (good for #1), before dropping down to 3 points per game for the latter three. He got shut down by Denver last week, which was pretty predictable, but his 15 points this week might indicate a return to form.

Peyton Manning, QB, ADP 26.5. Yeah, I can't justify this one. Yet. But have faith. I don't believe in much. I don't believe in magic, or universal morality, or god. I don't believe in ghosts or psychics or spirituality of any kind. But I fucking believe in Peyton Manning.

Russell Wilson, QB, ADP 26.6. What do you get when you put the most magical person since Merlin behind the worst offensive line since Eminem said "I ain't hear a word you said, hibbity-hoo-blah" in his second-to-last 8 Mile rap battle? You get the #13 fantasy quarterback. I can't and won't make excuses for Seattle's O-line.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, ADP 32.7. More injuries (and some really spotty play). Shoot. Maybe I'm really good at predicting which players will get injured? Hold that thought. Anyway, despite Peyton's struggles, Sanders has had a couple really good games and looks like he might be able to put together a productive season if he can stay healthy. That said, there's (also) no excuse for the drops he's been... dropping.

Justin Forsett, RB, ADP 35.0. Forsett is the #12 RB so far this year. I said I wanted him "as my #2 back whenever I can, and in a pinch... he'll probably do okay as a #1 RB." Hashtag nailed it.

Andre Johnson, WR, ADP 55.6. Why? WHY?? WHY DID I BELIEVE IN ANDREW LUCK???

Jeremy Maclin, WR, ADP 64.9. Injuries. God dammit.

Tom Brady, QB, ADP 78.4. YES FINALLY ONE I TOTALLY NAILED!!! I mean, uh, yet another one I totally nailed. I NAILED this pick. Because I don't believe in much, blah blah blah, but I believe in Tom Brady, et cetera. Oh yeah, and I stand by what I said about Edelman not being a good football player. Never mind that he's on pace for 1341 yards this season. It's all Brady. I'm not even kidding. Take a high school kid with good hands who can run clean routes and Brady will turn him into a 800+ yard receiver. That's what he does. Who's the second best* wide receiver (not TE) Brady's ever thrown to? Welker, the king of what I'll call the "hands and routes" school. Who's the third best receiver he's ever thrown to? I don't know, because he's thrown to dogshit his whole career. This is what he does. (It also helps that he's throwing to the best tight end to ever play the game.)

*First is obviously Moss, who's the second best receiver of all time and stands as the only genuinely great receiver (not tight end) Brady has ever had.

Arian Foster, RB, ADP 94.3. Soo remember that joke where I suggested I might just be really good at predicting who's gonna get injured? Yeah. Foster just tore his achilles after his best game of the season and after missing the first three (really four) games of the season with a completely different injury. For what it's worth, in the three games he really played this season, he averaged 16 points per game, which would have been good for #2 in the league this season. Ugh.

Darren McFadden, RB, ADP 110.1. Hold tight on this one. McFadden has been used sparingly (that might be generous) this season, but he's in the midst of a very respectable run, and Dallas might have finally figured out that he's the most talented RB they have on the roster. (He's leagues ahead of Joseph Randle talent-wise, and Christine Michael doesn't even register. [I wrote this before Randle was released but I'm leaving it because #prescient]) Injury is a factor here (ha--sad laugh), but I still have high hopes for McF.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, ADP 119.5. Yeah, not so much.

Antonio Gates, TE, ADP 124.9. Holy crap injury gods I swear to You--

Coby Fleener, TE, ADP 132.2. So tight ends suck this year, and Fleener hasn't been a particularly good one. But neither has Dwayne Allen, the other Indy TE; in fact, Fleener has massively outperformed Allen this season (!!!!!!!!!). Fleener was a DEEP sleeper and I blame his lack of success entirely on Andrew Luck's TERRIBLE season (hahahahahahaha), so I feel 100% justified in calling this pick a win. Because any loss of Luck's is a win of mine.


My 2015 Hates:

Adrian Peterson, RB, ADP 3.3. So Peterson has been a little better than I anticipated (still not top five--it's the little victories), and his top 10 showing, by my own logic, justifies an early first-round pick (god dammit). But shit happens. Even terrible people performing okay. (But for the record, it would be reasonable for me to call my Hate of Peterson justified by his underperformance.)

Antonio Brown, WR, ADP 8.1. Brown is the 8th-ranked receiver so far this year. Does that justify a first-round pick? I still say no. Really, that was the basis for my hate. Everyone (including me) knew Brown would be a legit #1 choice at receiver this year. I just don't value that as highly as a clear #1 RB.

C.J. Anderson, RB, ADP 11.6. Ooh, yes, come to papa, show us your mediocrity! Anderson has broken 45 yards exactly once this year, and has a total of one combined touchdown; he's the 46th-ranked RB. In a nutshell, Anderson has been terrible this year. God, I love being right.

LeSean McCoy, RB, ADP 14.8. McCoy has also been pretty bad this year. I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again: for the vast, vast majority of running backs (think 90+% of those starting in the league at any given time), their performance is almost entirely a result of their offensive line play. I've called Lynch the outright best RB in the league before because of his amazing ability to make something out of nothing, by breaking tackles and staying on his feet for extra yardage even with bad blocking. Barry Sanders used to be the master of something-for-nothing, although he did it by being elusive like a freak. McCoy couldn't--and can't--do this. Hence not being good in Buffalo. This is also the reason why you see some teams plug in whomever-the-fuck and make them successful (e.g. McFadden).

Jeremy Hill, RB, ADP 18.5. Few quotes from my writeup, along with the relevant stats and analysis from this season:

- "[Hill] broke 10 fantasy points seven times last season... [Giovani Bernard] also broke 10 fantasy points seven times last season." Hill has scored 10 points three times this season; Bernard has done so four times.
- "I see [Hill] splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, who's somehow getting forgotten in all the hype." Hill has 104 carries; Bernard has 91.
- "You know what this reminds me of? Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams." Hashtag nailed it.

And yes, Bernard is outperforming Hill so far this season. Although for what it's worth, they're both doing surprisingly decently (Bernard and Hill are the 17th and 20th rated RBs--NOT overall--which is okay but way worse than where Hill was being drafted this year. Oh, and Bernard is the better one). You know, like Stewart and Williams used to.

Mark Ingram, RB, ADP 28.4. Uh. Yeah (he's the #2 RB). This is probably one of the worst fantasy calls I've ever made. But the crazy thing is, all my reasoning was right. He IS playing in a high passing-volume offense; he IS splitting carries with not one, but two other backs; and he IS probably going to be the first 1000-yard rusher for the Saints since Deuce McAllister in 2006 (but only BARELY, and only if he keeps up his performance). What I didn't anticipate was Ingram TRIPLING his career-best receiving output (on a per-game basis) while also maintaining his rushing production. Admittedly, even without his receiving production, Ingram would still be a top-10 RB this season, but that's still a pretty big difference.

Jimmy Graham, TE, ADP 29.0. I'm really impressed by how well Graham has done this year, but to be objective he's the 8th best TE in a weak year and he was going in the third round. I'm gonna call this a win.

Carlos Hyde, RB, ADP 39.0. Hyde is the #17 ranked RB this year, exclusively by virtue of one amazing game week 1 and a good game week 5. His other five games have come in at 6 or fewer fantasy points. I don't see Hyde as a feast-or-famine type player. I see him as a bad player who had a few lucky breaks. He's injured now, which sucks, but I was still pretty right here (but I was scared for a second after week 1).

Frank Gore, RB, ADP 40.3. Honestly, all I can say is props to Gore. He hasn't been great this year, but he's been holding it down in the Indy shitfest of an offense. He's been better than I expected.

Seahawks D/ST, ADP 61.4. The Seahawks have tied for the second best D/ST so far this season (miles behind Denver's). It's still a TERRIBLE call to take a defense in the seventh round.

Joique Bell, RB, ADP 62.4. AND C.J. Spiller, RB, ADP 73.2. AND Ameer Abdullah, RB, ADP 83.8. I'm grouping these three together because they all suck and it all basically counts as one big win for me. It's nice to know that my notions about RBBCs still hold up most of the time (Williams/Stewart, Hill/Bernard, these guys... there's a pattern here). Ingram's really the freak outlier here.

By the way, I have no idea how Devonta Freeman is doing what he's doing. It's not unprecedented, but it's pretty freaking rare. I saw Gurley's explosion coming, to some extent (I liked him a lot in my draft writeup here, which I'm about to go write an article about), but I never expected Freeman to blow up like this. A lot of it is touchdowns, which really don't reflect any particular accomplishment on his part, but you can't blame a guy for making the most of his offensive opportunities. Good for him.

NFL Midseason Report: QB Rankings

The season is just under half over. Let's start by ranking quarterbacks. This is based almost exclusively on passing, with a little focus paid to rushing. This is not a list of who I'd like going forward, this season or in the future. I'd rather have Russell Wilson than literally any other player on here, but that doesn't mean he's going to be first. Similarly, I have no doubt that Tyrod Taylor will crash back down to earth, but he's still a top-ten QB so far this year. This list is exclusively based on play from the first half of this season.

1. Tom Brady. That's right, the sixth-round draft pick out of Michigan (as in the school that lost to their rival Michigan State when this happened) is ranked #1 this year. His Cinderella story gained a lot of attention from fans when he took over the starting job from Drew Bledsoe and won the Super Bowl... and then won three more Super Bowls. And two MVPs. Plus the MVP he's going to win this year (and the Super Bowl he's going to lose). #literallyKurtWarner. Brady is not having his best season ever, but he's having a season that looks so much like his best season ever that it's probably fair to call it one of the five or so best seasons ever (assuming he keeps it up, which, playing in the AFC, and the AFC East no less, he probably will). He's playing insanely efficiently and has thrown only one interception in 289 attempts, which isn't that meaningful a stat but is notable for being an all-time record. It also helps that his completion percentage is tied for a career high, his yards per attempt is the second best of his career, and his touchdown rate--while nowhere near his absurd 2007 mark, or even his markedly less absurd 2010 mark--is still the third-highest of his career, and sufficient for him to own the league lead in touchdowns thrown. Basically, Brady is having one of those seasons that makes me wonder if maybe, just maybe, his career will hold a candle to Peyton's when it's over... but it still doesn't. Even just looking at the latter half of Brady's career (since he got talented teammates in '07 to present), it barely keeps up with the latter half of Manning's, and that's before we factor in Manning's '04 season. But that debate is a topic for another post.

2. Carson Palmer. And now it's going to get weird. Palmer has been really good this year. As in, there isn't that big a gap between him and Brady. In fact, the gap is actually really small, and it might go the other way (i.e. Palmer might deserve the #1 spot on this list). I'm still giving it to Brady, partially because I already wrote up that whole entry for #1, and partially because I just think Brady's better. It's my list; I get to order them however I want. For the record, though, Palmer is having not only a career-best season (by a mile) but also, by ANY/A, the fourth-best passing season ever. (He's 16th all-time in PR; Brady's 5th in PR and 9th in ANY/A.) We're witnessing history. Kind of.

3. Andy Dalton. Blah, blah. Career year, insane efficiency (11th all-time PR, 8th all-time ANY/A). I don't fully expect all three of these guys to finish in the top 10 in these big efficiency categories, but it's still pretty amazing.

4. Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers isn't having an all-time great season, or even an extremely good one. What a loser. He (and the Packers) also joined the Less Than 50 Yards Passing In A Game Club, which is not a club you want to be in.

5. Derek Carr. Carr's on a warpath to prove that his performance against the Seahawks in the 2014 preseason wasn't a fluke. He's throwing to Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and trash, and his performance has been close to Rodgers's. If I'm ranking rookies since '12 by how much I'd want them going forward (all other things equal), Carr might come second after Wilson. (He's easily ahead of Luck, looking better than Foles, Griffin, and Bridgewater, and I like him more than Tannehill.) Of course this might be a Foles-lite season (remember how Foles had the third-best season ever by both PR and ANY/A in '13 and then fell off a cliff, relatively speaking--he's still better than Luck), but it also might be an indication of things to come.

6. Philip Rivers. Rivers is the other guy (besides Brady) who's on pace to break Manning's passing yards record. He's also only the third guy on this list so far who's not having a career season (after Brady and Rodgers). Few people remember this, but in 2008 Rivers was far and away the best quarterback in the league (and it wasn't close). Yet not only was Rivers denied First Team All-Pro, but he didn't even make the Pro Bowl. Meanwhile, Kerry Collins, who put up a passer rating a full 25 points below Rivers's, and an ANY/A more than two full yards less than Rivers's. Even Peyton Manning, who won FTAP and MVP, wasn't particularly close. So yeah, he's not having a career season. But it's good.

7. Drew Brees. Boring. Ignore any and all stats about Brees's receivers. Brees's performance is and has always been independent of his receivers. That's what makes him Brees. He's going to be between 3rd and 10th on this list until he dies or retires.

8. Tyrod Taylor. Yes, Taylor has five career starts (or possibly four; PFR is inconsistent). But this is as far as I can let him slip because he's straight up been that good in those five starts. Taylor may have only gone 3-2 in his games this year, but in those games he completed 70.1% of his passes (best in the league), for 6.6% TD% (t-6th), 8.0 YPA (5th), 103.6 PR (6th), and an inexplicably mediocre 6.60 ANY/A (12th). If he can continue doing anything like that, he might be Buffalo's first answer at QB since freaking Jim Kelly. I mean, he might be. He's probably not.

9. Eli Manning. It's pretty expected to see the name Manning near the top of the list, so we're just gonna gloss over this. It's nice to see Beckham come back down to earth, because I don't like the Giants and it pains me to see them do well. We're going to ignore the fact that their 4-4 record puts them at outright first in the NFC East.

10. Russell Wilson. Wilson threw off the Seahawks' offensive plans when he stole the starting job from Matt Flynn in the 2012 preseason. They hadn't prepared a playbook for a mobile, accurate passer with legs. After Wilson proved himself to be the real deal (this happened in game 6 vs the Patriots, when Wilson hard-carried the game and singlehandedly forced the Hawks to win), most teams would have redesigned the offense around their new quarterback and modified the roster to make him successful. Not the Seahawks! Our front office saw his potential to hard-carry every game and decided, fuck it, rather than spending any money on receivers or O-line (the two position groups that have any statistical influence on a quarterback's performance), let's channel all our money into defense. To be fair, this wasn't the worst strategy in the world; the Seahawks' offenses ranked in the top ten for the three years prior to this season, and that's largely due to Wilson, again, hard-carrying the offense (along with Marshawn Lynch being one of the very few running backs in league history to be able to find success without offensive line support, although don't think that would be enough without Wilson). But then the Hawks traded their best offensive lineman, by FAR (Max Unger), to New Orleans for a receiving threat. Now the Seahawks have the 32nd-ranked OL in the league, and even Wilson is having difficulty. Of course, some of this is on Wilson--he's made a number of dumb mistakes, and even though his completion rate is through the roof, his ANY/A is the worst of his career by FAR. 10th is a reasonable place for Wilson. If and when he and/or the OL pulls it together, expect his meteoric rise to continue (to go completely unnoticed by the media, but hey).

11. Brian Hoyer. I have no idea why Hoyer is this high. My rankings are fundamentally based in statistics, but it was my impression that Hoyer is bad. I'm attributing this to DeAndre Hopkins, who has slowed his historic pace but is still on track to put up 1740 yards (and 12 TDs, on 132 catches) this season. That's insane. (Oh, by the way, as great as Todd Gurley is, his roll will also slow down pretty soon. That doesn't mean he's not great. It just means he won't have a rookie season on par with Eric Dickerson's (when he rushed for 1808 yards and 18 TDs). Right now, Gurley is on pace for 1150 yards and 6 TDs. But if you take into account the fact that he barely played in the Rams' first three games and assume that he'll continue at the rate he's been going for his last four games (he won't), he's on pace for 1707 yards and 9 TDs. Still not quite Dickerson, but a lot better than he's realistically going to do. And yet he's still the most promising young back in the NFL... If you don't count Le'Veon Bell as young at 23.)

12. Josh McCown. More like Josh McClown, am I right? This guy's career statsheet looks like a patchwork quilt of journeymanship and mediocrity. I mean, yes, he does have a higher passer rating than Russell Wilson this season on more attempts, but have you seen all those Cleveland receivers I've never heard of? You know, like Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson? They're probably pretty good. I mean, Johnny Manziel with this team (with this line, which PFF has as second in the league this season) has produced an 84.5 passer rating, and Manziel is one of the worst quarterbacks I've ever seen. Which gives me great pleasure.

13. Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger being this high does not give me great pleasure. I don't like Roethlisberger. But his stats speak for themselves, low volume aside. Which means I don't have to speak for them, which is good, because I'm done.

14. Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL (possibly ever). Every single season he's played, he's finished between an 80.9 and 99.1 passer rating, and in seven out of eight seasons he's finished north of 87. His career rating is good for 11th all time, although part of that is due to rating inflation. (By the way, keep your eyes open for Wilson to enter that leaderboard next week.... at #2.) This is basically who Matt Ryan is. He's never going to put up a 110 PR season or win MVP, but he's also never going to be Andrew Luck and throw games away. It helps that Julio Jones is having a god season (on pace for 1784 yards and 12 TDs).

15. Alex Smith. It's weird to think that as the NFL's viewership gets younger and younger, more and more people will be watching what Smith is doing now without realizing what he went through to get here. Smith was picked 1st overall in '05 and started right off the bat in an era when QBs didn't do that nearly as much as they do now. He was terrible and, up until about 2011, he was considered one of the biggest busts of all time (behind only Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell, and Tim Couch at QB). Then Jim Harbaugh came to town. When he revitalized the 49ers franchise, he also revitalized Smith's career. Harbaugh, the QB Whisperer, turned Smith from a career 72.1 PR passer (in the 6 years before him) to a 92.7 PR passer (in the five years, and WAY more attempts, since). Smith, like Ryan, will never be Tom Brady. But at least he is like Ryan now, and not like Andrew Luck (whose career rating is currently in jeopardy of falling below Smith's 83.6).

16. Marcus Mariota. MariGOATa had one of the all-time great passing games in week 1 (his "perfect passer rating" was actually a 207.6 uncapped, which is significantly more impressive). In fact, that might be the greatest first-game debut by a rookie in NFL history, and certainly the best passing debut. (Among QBs who started game 1 of their rookie season, Mariota's game ranks first all-time, ahead of Fran Tarkenton's 166.9, RGIII's 139.9, Matt Ryan's unqualified 137.0, and Jim Kelly's 119.8. At other positions, Ottis Anderson started his career with a game of 193 yards rushing and a TD, while Billy Sims put up 153 yards and 3 scores. Anquan Boldin opened with 217 yards receiving and 2 TDs. A couple of defensive players and offensive non-skill guys had solid efforts in their debuts, but nothing spectacular, or at least nothing that shows up that way in the stat book. All that being said, I'm happy to call Mariota's debut the all-time best, since it outpaces Anderson and Boldin's efforts relative to their respective peers by a pretty wide margin--neither of them appear on the single-game leaderboard.) Anyway. Since his historic start, Mariota's performance has dropped from MariGOATa to MariNOta. If this keeps up, he's going to finish up a lot lower on this list than 16th.

17. Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler is well-known for using his tremendous physique to intimidate his opponents on the gridiron. (Just kidding.) For real, though, Cutler is basically the poster boy for mediocrity. Ever season of his career besides one (his first in Chicago, which was understandably transitional), he's finished with a passer rating in the 80s. That's honestly stunning. In fact, all but two of his seasons have finished between 85 and 90 PRs. This isn't exactly a desirable passer rating (Cutler ranks 24th on the career list, after the boost of modern passing rules), but it's still pretty amazing that he's that consistent, year in and year out.

18. Ryan Tannehill. A few weeks ago, Tannehill just missed out on setting the record for the highest Uncapped Passer Rating ever recorded in a game. He had the record, with the qualifying 15 attempts (with 16, in fact), and then he literally threw it away by staying in the game for no reason (it was a blowout). This is probably one of the most disappointing near-brushes with history any of us will ever witness. Bummer.

19. Jameis Winston. I thought, and still think, that Mariota was the best quarterback coming out of college this past spring. But credit where it's due: Winston has been really impressive in three of his games this season, and for a quarterback starting in his rookie season it's much more about being impressive intermittently than it is about being pretty good consistently. (This is why I'm still high on Mariota.) Basically the logic is this: If the QB is good enough to put up a 110+ passer rating in three separate games this year, he clearly has the talent to be successful in the NFL. His bad games are mostly due to rookie mistakes, which can be dealt with; not having the talent can't be. So basically, Tampa should be really happy with their rookie's performance so far.

20. Ryan Fitzpatrick. I actually met Ryan Fitzpatrick in a bar last weekend near where he went to college, and we started going at it. He was being a dick to my friend and started regurgitating Gordon Wood, talking about the pre-Revolutionary utopia and the capital-forming effects of military mobilization. Then, when I pointed out that Wood drastically underestimates the impact of social distinctions predicated upon wealth, especially inherited wealth, he was humiliated and slinked off in defeat, in the traditional manner of the Jets.

21. Teddy Bridgewater. People think Bridgewater is mobile. People are racist. He's not mobile, at all. Blake Bortles, Josh McCown, and Jay Cutler all have more rushing yards this season than Bridgewater. It baffles me how there is still such a massive prejudice in the NFL regarding race. Seems to me like the matter should have been resolved when Jim Brown entered the NFL and completely shit on the whitewashed league, thereby proving that not only were black players as good as whites, but they were in fact often (usually) better. The NFL is now overwhelmingly black, and yet there still exist these preconceptions (particularly at QB) that black players are "less cerebral" or "more mobile." This is racism. (Demographics: 68% of players, as of 2014, identified as black, followed by 28% white, and around 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, and Other. The Eagles were by far the whitest team in the league, with 25 players--47% of their active roster--reporting as white.) Bridgewater, or at least the hoax of his athleticism (which never existed--he rushed for 170 yards in college, total), is a result of this racism, because it's impossible for the sports media to accept that Bridgewater is a good, black quarterback, despite not being mobile. (Well, he's pretty good, at 21st.)

22. Matthew Stafford. The list gets real messy past around this point. The choices are still in approximate order, but feel free to move anyone (except the last two entries, who are far and away the worst QBs, statistically speaking, this season) up or down a slot or two as you see fit. Anyway, Stafford continues his trend of underwhelming efficiency despite throwing to absurdly talented receivers (specifically Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate). Does this make him a bad quarterback? I don't think so. Is he playing injured? Maybe. He usually is. But honestly, quarterbacking in the league this year is really good and mediocrity is almost never going to place you higher than the bottom third, regardless of how justified it may be. Let me repeat that for posterity: Environment very rarely justifies mediocrity, and there are no active cases in the league of this happening. The closest thing is Wilson trying to make magic behind PFF's 32nd-ranked offensive line, but even that doesn't fully justify the mistakes he's been making. (See how I acknowledge my QB's underperformance, rather than trying to explain it away and insisting he's still elite? Pay attention, Colts fans.)

23. Kirk Cousins. I'm still on the RGIII hope train. Although by this point the train is empty and I'm sitting alone while the waiver cliff rapidly approaches. Did you know Griffin was born in Okinawa? That means he can never be president. Maybe that's why the Redskins are featuring Kirk Cousins. Or maybe they're living in the past and fail to realize that Cousins hasn't had a season over 87 passer rating in his career. Imagine that, living in the past, never realizing that the player you're supporting hasn't been good for years... Fuck.

24. Blake Bortles. I actually called Bortles as the best QB in his draft class back before the draft. I certainly didn't expect him to go as high as he did, but I saw him as being potentially better than Bridgewater. His first season, he put up a passer rating of 69.5. This year, he's notched an 82.5. That's a gain of 13 rating points. At this rate, he'll put up a 95.5 next season, a 108.5 in 2017, a 121.5 in '18, and a record 134.5 in 2019. So I'm feeling pretty comfortable with my prediction. Just you wait.

25. Nick Foles. Foles's good season is the best one-hit-wonder season by a quarterback in NFL history. This is not Foles's good season. His performance has been virtually identical to where it was last season (and when I say identical, I mean cmp% within 1%, YPA identical, and PR within 0.2). Unfortunately that consistent rating has come on really inconsistent play this year. I don't see a resurgence from Foles. But hey, maybe he's going to be the next Kurt Warner.

26. Joe Flacco. Flaccastrophe is basically a slightly worse Matt Ryan, and I don't just say that because they're both from the same draft class. Just kidding, that's exactly why I say that. People jumped on the hype train after Flacco had that great playoff run in 2012, and no one listened when I explained that it was just variance. Well, it turns out it was just variance. The next season Flacco played his career worst, while the media still asked if he was elite. He's not. He will never be.

27. Cam Newton. I have seen some people suggesting that Cam Newton is an MVP candidate this year. I don't even have a response to that. I have arguments against any reasonable candidate, but not one who's so far outside the realm of competition that I'd never in a million years consider his case. Not only is Newton playing badly this season, but he's not even the reason the Panthers are doing well. (Usually when an individual player is responsible for massively increasing his team's performance, it shows up in their stats. E.g. literally every player who's ever done this. You really need a list? Start with '07 Brady, '13 Manning, '07 Moss, '11 Rodgers, '12 Peterson, '99 and '01 Warner. As a rule, when an individual player is playing so well that his team does extremely well as a direct result, this shows up in the player's statistics. Which is why we have statistics.) Statistically: Newton has as many games of sub-70 PR as he does of 80+ PR--two of each. He has a career-low passer rating despite spending his entire career in the 80s. His rushing (286 yards) doesn't add nearly enough value for him to merit consideration even as an average quarterback, let alone an elite one, let alone an MVP candidate. "But he doesn't have help from his team!" Okay, first of all, yes he does. 7-0 doesn't happen on one person's back, I don't care if you're Peyton Manning. And second: So fucking what? His team (hypothetically) being bad doesn't magically make his performance better (cf. Andrew Luck's entire career). Newton's numbers are slightly--and only slightly--better than Tim Tebow's were. Tebow "carried" his team far more than Newton has. Was Timmy an MVP candidate? Where were you then, desperate Panthers fans? Oh wait, I know this one: You were Packers fans.

28. Peyton Manning. It's kind of sad that I have to put Peyton below Newton after writing that whole big thing shitting on Cam, when I still believe (and frequently state) Peyton to be the greatest quarterback of all time. I don't know what's wrong with him. He's been declining (no, screw that, he's been declined) physically ever since he came to Denver, but it's not like that stopped him from having one of the greatest passing seasons ever in '13. (If he were having that season right now, he'd be #1 on this list, even with all the crazy shit going on up there.) Is it mental? Maybe, although the limiting factor that ends QBs' careers is almost universally physical. Still, I can't explain the mistakes. Peyton hasn't had a season this bad since he was a rookie. Since the rule changes in '04 (when he also put up the greatest passing season ever to that point), he hadn't had a rating below 90, and he'd spent more seasons above a 100 PR than below it. (If you're keeping track at home, Brady is currently enjoying his fourth 100+ PR season. Peyton has six. Then again Brady has more 110+ PR seasons, but Peyton has more 120+... And Brady's never had a season this bad. But if he sticks around long enough he will.) My point is that there's no real reason we should have seen this coming. And I can't explain it. But I hope it goes away soon. I've spent too much of my childhood and adult life watching Peyton Manning be the greatest for it to end like this.

29. Colin Kaepernick. Honestly I feel for Kaepernick at this point. I never particularly liked the Niners, but I also didn't buy into the forced "rivalry" that erupted seemingly out of nowhere a few years ago. That's not how rivalries work. They're bitter and build up over decades. The Seahawks have only been in the NFC West for 14 years this season, and we've barely had time to establish one rivalry with the Rams. So as much as I enjoyed Sherman's Tip in the '13 NFC Championship, I never completely bought into the Niners hate. So seeing the team get stripped down for parts makes me laugh, yes, and I will say that seeing Jim Harbaugh's Michigan team completely shit the bed against Michigan State made me gleefully happy, but I also can't help but feel bad that somehow some fans still blame it all on Kaepernick. To make me feel better let's have some NFC Championship trivia: The Seahawks have played in three NFC Champs ('05, '13, '14), winning all three (!!). The Seahawks are also the only team in NFL history to play in both an NFC and an AFC championship, although they lost the latter (to the '84 Raiders). #GoHawks.

30. Sam Bradford. It's kind of sad, but Bradford's performance has been a lot worse since he left St. Louis. It was gradually improving, despite the injuries, but in Philly he just hasn't been holding it together. At this point I think it'll probably never happen. It's a shame.

31. Andrew Luck. Well, well, well. Look who's back in the bottom of the barrel. I've written so much about Luck already that there's barely anything left to say. For the record, he was never that much better than he is right now. He was marginally better, sure. He's thrown more picks this year and is putting up a career low in efficiency. But he was never the bastion of budding greatness that the media and most of the fans seemed to think (and which many continue to believe, beyond all rational explanation). Luck wasn't the best (or second-best) rookie quarterback in 2012, he wasn't the most promising up-and-comer in '13, he wasn't really breaking out last season, and he isn't a victim of his team this season. This is just who he is. He's inconsistent, inefficient, and overrated. Don't ever expect the media to acknowledge this. Most likely, they'll keep talking him up for the rest of his career. He'll make the Hall of Fame despite never really accomplishing anything, and he'll be remembered as a great quarterback for generations to come, despite never actually being one. In the less likely case that he really does bomb out of the league, the media still will never print the headline "Whoops, Looks Like We Fucked Up The Andrew Luck Thing." No, they'll call him a bust and pretend they called it all along. Don't let the media's depictions of players influence your opinion. Form your own opinion. Base it on objectivity and statistics. Value advanced metrics and efficient performance. These are the things that matter, not when you were picked in the draft, how tall you are, how white you are, or how often you throw the ball.

32. Ryan Mallett. Turns out there's a floor even below Luck's shoddy play this season. But not much of one.