Receiver 10-year Peaks

A football player's "peak" is the period in which he is at the height of his power. Usually, with elite players, this spans a few years (perhaps 3-7). In some cases it can go much longer: Tom Brady's "peak" was probably around 17 years (I'm thinking 2005-2021, his first and last All Pro nods), Reggie White's was pretty inarguably 14 years long; Jerry Rice's was probably only 10 but arguably extends 17 years through his final 1200 yard season, when he was 40. In other cases, it can go much shorter: Peyton Hillis's "peak" didn't even make the Pro Bowl but was enough to get him the cover of Madden and definitely not just because he was white, and Albert Haynesworth's genuinely terrifying prime lasted two years and earned him two Pro Bowls, two First-Team All Pros, and two top-4 DPOY finishes.

Many wide receivers have short, impressive peaks. But the very best can sometimes churn out season after season of elite numbers, sometimes for 10 years or longer. In this article, I will be examining those wide receivers who racked up 10,000 yards in at most 10 seasons -- that is, players who averaged at least 1000 yards per season for 10 years in a row. This includes players with short ultra-high peaks and players with longer good-but-not-great peaks, as well as all-time great players who sustained their elite success over that span and beyond. It also includes Jerry Rice, who... well, you'll see.

Now, this model does have a few speedbumps. First of all, it does not prorate player success across more years than they've played; for instance, Justin Jefferson has started his career with an insane average of 1608.3 yards per season through his first three seasons, which if it continues has the potential to make him the greatest receiver of all time. (It probably won't.) There are two players on the list who played fewer than 10 seasons, both of whom played 9 (Mike Evans and Calvin Johnson); their numbers have been divided by 10, because prorating them is a can of worms I decline to open. This slightly minimizes their per-year impact, but I feel fairly reflects their contributions over a 10-year span. Furthermore, AJ Green would have made the list (barely; he would be in third-to-last place) if we didn't count his injured 2019 season against him. Unfortunately for him, I am counting it against him, just as I'd have counted it if he played in 1 game and gotten 0 receptions. We're looking at performance over a decade, not performance over 10 seasons. You want better numbers, don't get injured.

All that aside, behold the list!

(* denotes Evans's and Johnson's 9 seasons, ** denotes Jerry Rice's full career)

Witness the majesty of Jerry Rice. Not only is he #1 on this list by a MILE (the gap of 130 yards between him and #2 Julio Jones is bigger than the gap between Jones and #12 Calvin Johnson, and bigger again than the gap between Johnson and #30 (of 33) Gary Clark); but if you look down at #15 on the list, Jerry Rice's entire 20-year career had higher per-season averages than the 10-year peaks of Larry Fitzgerald, Cris Carter, Michael Irvin, and all but 14 other wide receivers in NFL history. That 20-year-peak, by the way, includes Rice's age-42 season. He's just Built Different.

A few other things of note: Julio Jones really ended up having one of the best careers ever, didn't he? Good for him. Torry Holt shows out well too, supporting my decade-long campaign for him as the superior "Greatest Show On Turf" Rams receiver over Isaac Bruce (who also does surprisingly well, landing at #14). Other than Jones, there's a relative lack of active players on this list; despite the NFL's best-ever ruleset for receivers, only four active receivers made the list: Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and Travis Kelce. (Kelce is also the only tight end on the list, although Tony Gonzalez barely missed it with 996 yards per season.) Lots of guys may join them in the near-ish future, especially given the NFL's insane switch to 17-game seasons. But for now we get to enjoy a list with mostly old guys, many of whom I watched.

Speaking of which: Who knew that Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin were this good? Those were my biggest surprises.

Which modern players might join it? Well, Stefon Diggs is close; if he can get 1188 yards in the next 2 seasons combined, he'll make the list. Brandin Cooks would need a rather more impressive 1384 yards next year alone, which would be a career high. Tyreek Hill needs 1660 yards in 3 years, which he will likely get in 1-2. And Amari Cooper would need 1764 yards in the next 2 years. Everyone else needs more than 2000. Jumping far ahead, Justin Jefferson, the career leader in receiving yards per game, needs 5175 yards in 7 years to make it; if he sustains his current yards/game pace (which who knows how possible that is) and plays all 17 games every year, he'll join the 10k/10 club in his 7th season. (If he keeps up that pace, he'll pass Jerry Rice's career receiving yards record in his 15th career season. That's both 25% faster than Rice and a hilariously long time to sustain an absolutely unsustainable pace in order to catch up to the GOAT. And he needs 17 games to do it, smh.)

Oh right, while we're here, let's also look at the receptions and TDs leaderboards for our 10k/10 players!

First receptions:

This one is actually a little surprising. Who knew Brandon Marshall was this good? Anyway, I'm not terribly interested in receptions as a statistic, so let's move on. (Oh, also, this is still just based on 10k yards in 10 years, so it's not even necessarily the top receptions/10 years guys.)

Now touchdowns!

That's more like it! By which I mean, that's another chart where Rice is comfortably out front of the pack. Another interesting thing -- look at the gap between the top 6 (Rice, Moss, Harrison, TO, and Carter, plus Rice's whole career -- lmao) down to everyone else (starting with Maynard). They're all at/around 10+ (with Rice up past 14, lol), and no one else is much above 8. There's a big gap there. That may correlate to quarterback performance, although probably not as much as you think, or it may indicate just a whole other echelon of deep-threat talent. It's hard to tease these things apart. Certainly, though, in my opinion at least, Rice, Moss, Harrison, Owens, and Carter is a pretty good list of, if not the greatest wide receivers of all time, something very closely approximating that. (Carter is probably the odd one out, with his paltry 1100 yards per season.)

One final note. I listed each receiver's ranking in each of these categories and averaged them out to determine their average placement in this list (so, for instance, Lance Alworth finished 33rd, and 9th, and 33rd in yards, TDs, and receptions (respectively) which averages out to (33+33+9)/3=25th). Here are the results.

Having seen prime Moss play, it's hard for me to put him anywhere but #2 all-time. But there's obviously a case to be made that Rice and Harrison are far and away the two best receivers of all time. (This chart actually understates the gap between them, as Rice is 10.4% ahead in yards, 25.4% ahead in touchdowns -- lol -- and only 7.3% behind in receptions. But still.) And if that is the case, as counterintuitive as it may seem, it's entirely possible that Marvin Harrison is one of the most underrated receivers of all time. So let's take a short break from our effusive praise of Jerry Rice (who averaged #2 on this list by finishing 1st in yards, 1st in TDs, and 4th in receptions) to heap a little praise onto Harrison (3rd, 3rd, and 1st).

(Also, another shockingly high finish from Brandon Marshall! Honestly, maybe he's the most underrated receiver of all time.)