NFL Draft 2023 Preview

There's another NFL draft! They have one every year, but this is the first time I've been really tracking it in quite a few. I'm not gonna cover everyone, mostly just give my thoughts on the guys I find particularly interesting.

The Quarterback Question

There are four Big Names in this year's QB draft: Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis. I'll talk about them and a couple more.

- Bryce Young: Honestly, I'm incredibly impressed by this kid. He's 21 and looks like one of the best college QB prospects I've seen. He's got incredible touch and makes throws most NFL guys struggle with. His pocket presence is stunning and his poise under pressure and ability to make plays calmly even while rolling out and surrounded by defenders is like nothing I've ever seen. I've seen criticisms of his arm, but I've also seen Young lay out 50-yard bombs and hit his guy in stride. Does he have the biggest arm in the class? No (that'd be Richardson). But he can make all the NFL throws and do a lot more besides. I'm not at all worried about his size -- he takes plenty of hits from future NFL guys and hasn't shown any major injury worries. Plus, unlike certain NFL quarterbacks I could name, he doesn't at all struggle with throws over the middle -- in fact, it's an area of strength for him. Young's a guy you pin your franchise on. I'd take him 1st overall in a heartbeat.

- CJ Stroud: I have no idea how to interpret Stroud. He's a very accurate passer and led all of CFB in efficiency, but he was also throwing to top-end guys and basically never had to throw anyone open or throw a tricky touch pass. He had one or more open receivers on virtually every play. When he tries to place harder throws, he's a little hit-and-miss. There are also concerns about how he functions under pressure. Guys take time to adjust to NFL game speeds, and to the closeness of NFL coverage, and it's entirely possible Stroud is one of the guys who fails to make that leap. It's also possible he's Peyton Manning. Personally I'm in the "let him be someone else's dice-roll" camp.

- Anthony Richardson: Richardson is confusing. He's not a very good quarterback, both by the eye test and objectively. He doesn't win many games, he doesn't throw the ball particularly well, and my hot take is that he's not actually an especially good runner. He's extremely athletic (all-around the most athletic QB prospect we've ever seen) and has a tremendous arm -- he can make throws other guys struggle with without looking like he even has to try. He's a powerful runner and can drag blockers for extra yards. He also misses guys on short routes, misses screens, and seems to have trouble differentiating whether receivers are open or not. On a lot of his throws, I feel like he kind of just tosses the ball up towards his receiver without worrying about whether they're open, in single coverage, or in double coverage. That doesn't work with his receivers at Florida and unless he ends up with Calvin Johnson (or whoever the 2023 equivalent is) it won't work in the NFL either.

Josh Allen has convinced NFL front offices that they can turn it around for low-floor high-upside guys, but there's really only one Josh Allen. Richardson is a guy I'd be okay taking a shot on in the late 2nd but it's a hard pass for me in the top 10. Ultimately, NFL quarterbacks are called on to pass more than anything, and if they can't do that well, it doesn't really matter how good they are at other things. I feel like we're seeing the far extreme of the athletic quarterback thing with Lamar Jackson right now. He was a great rusher and a quite good passer (on quite low volume), and since has struggled with injuries and production fall-offs and now is in a ridiculous standoff with the Ravens' front office over whether he deserves far more money and guarantees than people with far better performance and far fewer injury concerns... Not that I'm taking a side. But Jackson seems like the far outlier best-case scenario for a guy like Richardson. Jackson's a much better runner and a vastly better passer, and he's also never started 16 games in a season and his production is falling off pretty heavily at 25 years old. With the possible exception of Michael Vick's pre-prison stretch, there's just never been a quarterback where he was a bad passer but such an exceptional athlete that he was actually worth starting. Richardson won't be the first.

- Will Levis: Levis is tricky to judge too. On his good throws he feels like a Young-upside-type guy. On his bad throws he feels like a less athletic Richardson. He's also quite a bit older than the other top prospects. Personally, I feel he's a low-first/high-second round type guy who's getting hyped up because this year's quarterback class is so weird and confusing.

- Hendon Hooker: Surprise fifth candidate! I don't see anything to like in Hooker. Sorry. I wanted to like him.

- Stetson Bennett: Bennett shouldn't and won't be the 6th QB taken but I wanted to chime in here to say that despite being approximately 45 years old, Bennett has quite an impressive track record and one of the more inspiring stories in college football. Watching his play, I just don't see it. He looks like what he is: a game manager who played with the most stacked team in football but brought very little to the table above baseline competence. I get taking a shot on him in the 7th just to see if that magic somehow translates to the NFL, but... Well hey, it worked for Tebow (until he ran into Belichick, twice). Would you take 2011 Tebow in the 7th round? I sure would. That Broncos-Steelers Wild Card game is burned into my memory and it's why I have a little Tebow shrine in the corner of my living room.

- Other quarterbacks: Sometimes I watch tape of other quarterbacks in the hopes that I'll discover the next Russell Wilson. Hasn't happened yet. I haven't watched a ton of tape on these guys but so far I haven't seen anything I love in Clayton Tune or Dorian Thompson-Robinson either.

Running Backs

I gotta be real, I haven't really watched tape on these guys. They're running backs. Everyone seems in love with Bijan Robinson but I just haven't gotten through more than a couple minutes of his tape.

Receivers

I can't judge receivers from college tape, but good news! Neither can anyone else. Of the top ten receivers in the NFL by yards last season, four were taken in the 1st round, two in the 2nd, two in the 3rd, and two in the 5th. You certainly have better odds of finding a great receiver in the first round (unsurprisingly), but it's far from the only way to find one. The strategy seems to be to take high-upside guys later on and spend your early picks on the relatively easy-to-scout positions.

Offensive Line

I've only really watched tape on a couple of guys here. Darnell Wright, Tennessee's right tackle, is one of the best college tackles I've ever seen. I watched him play several full games and I'm not sure I ever saw him get beat on a play where it mattered (i.e., usually when someone got by him there was a run going the other way or some such). I watched him shut down Will Anderson and Jalen Carter without breaking a sweat. Everyone seems to think he's a RT-only prospect, which I'm not quite sure why because, again, he shut down Will Anderson and Jalen Carter... I'd happy play him at either tackle spot or, hell, at guard if we had to. He's an elite pass blocker and a great run blocker. He's the only tackle I've watched significant tape on and he's so good that I only discovered him when I was watching tape of some defender or other and noticed just how dominant a blocker he was. Whoever takes Wright will be very happy for a very long time. From a position of pure outstanding ability at his position, Wright is my #1 player in the draft.

John Michael Schmitz looks quite good. He's not the pass blocker Wright is, but he seems more then adequate at his position. I'm not crazy about him but I'd take him in the mid-late 2nd and be happy about it.

I also watched some Steve Avila tape and wasn't especially impressed. He looks pretty good and can throw a mean block but isn't as consistent as I'd like.

Defense

It's all in one category.

Will Anderson looks amazing to me. His 2021 stats were quite a bit better than in 2022, which may be because he got double-teamed a lot last year, and/or plays were schemed to run away from him. In 2021 he put up 101 tackles, 31 for loss, and 17.5 sacks. For comparison, in his final year TJ Watt had 63 tackles, 15.5 for loss, and 11.5 sacks. JJ Watt in his final year had 62 tackles, 21 for loss, and 7 sacks. Joey Bosa had 51/16/5. These guys don't all fill the same role as Anderson, and I'm certainly not saying Will Anderson will be on their level, but in the NFL, where there's so much talent all over the place that you can't just scheme around one guy, it's entirely possible he could have top-level production. (Hell, even Anderson's far less impressive 2023 had comparable numbers to those guys, with 51 tackles, 17 for loss, and 10 sacks.)

But aside from his numbers, I really like what I see from Anderson on tape. He gets off blockers well and gets to the QB. I don't really want him doing anything besides rushing the QB and/or setting the edge, but he does those things exceptionally well. I don't buy into the concerns about Anderson, and if the Seahawks somehow find a way to pick him or trade up to get him, I'll be thrilled. If I have the #2 overall pick and Young's off the board, I'm taking Anderson.

Jalen Carter is hard to judge. On the field, he was a monster, an inside pass-rusher and run-stopper on a level most college DTs never approach. But his conditioning was quite bad and his off-field issues are obviously a concern. If Carter's upside is equivalent production to what he got in college for 1/3 of the plays your team runs per game, do you take him top 5? In college he was apparently on the field about 33%-40% of the time. No one plays every snap, but Aaron Donald (for an unreasonably lofty comparison) played 56.57% of snaps last year for the Rams, per PFR, and Quinnen Williams played in 60.63% of his team's snaps. Even if Carter's at their level when he does see the field, do you accept a guy who's only going to see less than half of all the snaps your defense takes? Who could potentially become a liability in no-huddle situations (which every QB in the NFL could comfortably run if it meant taking a key defender out of commission)? Maybe you expect to see an improvement in conditioning, and I'd assume an assurance of this would be a prerequisite to any team taking him early. But we'd be talking about a 50% increase in his availability to be on pace with the top DTs in the NFL.

And that's really my only concern with Carter. His tape is impressive and his off-field issues seem more like immaturity and bad judgment than anything deeply damning. If the Seahawks take him at #5, I'll be happy with it in the hopes that Carroll and co. can make a difference for him. Who knows? Maybe they can. And if Carter pans out, he has the potential to be a massively important piece for the Seattle defense.

I've looked at other D Linemen but I honestly don't have strong feelings about them. I know that sounds like a cop-out but I have actually watched tape of them and I'm just not sure what I think.

I don't know anything about Jack Campbell but I'd draft him for his name alone. Campbell easily has one of the best Football Names I've ever seen. Actually, here's a quick breakdown of the best and worst Football Names, in no particular order, in the top 200 players (on the ESPN Big Board):

Best Football Names: Bryce Young, Peter Skoronski, Darnell Wright, Calijah Kancey, Kelee Ringo, Jack Campbell, BJ Ojulari, Brenton Strange, Zach Charbonnet, Tre'Vius Tomlinson, TANK BIGSBY (a Hall of Fame name if I've ever heard one), JL Skinner, DeMarvion Overshown, Deuce Vaughn

Worst Football Names: Dalton Kincaid, Broderick Jones, Will McDonald, Luke Musgrave, John Michael Schmitz (sounds like a Mormon missionary), Sam LaPorta, Zacch Pickens (Zacch??? ZACCH?????), Luke Wypler, Nick Herbig, Christopher Smith, Jammie Robinson, Thomas Incoom

Receiver 10-year Peaks

A football player's "peak" is the period in which he is at the height of his power. Usually, with elite players, this spans a few years (perhaps 3-7). In some cases it can go much longer: Tom Brady's "peak" was probably around 17 years (I'm thinking 2005-2021, his first and last All Pro nods), Reggie White's was pretty inarguably 14 years long; Jerry Rice's was probably only 10 but arguably extends 17 years through his final 1200 yard season, when he was 40. In other cases, it can go much shorter: Peyton Hillis's "peak" didn't even make the Pro Bowl but was enough to get him the cover of Madden and definitely not just because he was white, and Albert Haynesworth's genuinely terrifying prime lasted two years and earned him two Pro Bowls, two First-Team All Pros, and two top-4 DPOY finishes.

Many wide receivers have short, impressive peaks. But the very best can sometimes churn out season after season of elite numbers, sometimes for 10 years or longer. In this article, I will be examining those wide receivers who racked up 10,000 yards in at most 10 seasons -- that is, players who averaged at least 1000 yards per season for 10 years in a row. This includes players with short ultra-high peaks and players with longer good-but-not-great peaks, as well as all-time great players who sustained their elite success over that span and beyond. It also includes Jerry Rice, who... well, you'll see.

Now, this model does have a few speedbumps. First of all, it does not prorate player success across more years than they've played; for instance, Justin Jefferson has started his career with an insane average of 1608.3 yards per season through his first three seasons, which if it continues has the potential to make him the greatest receiver of all time. (It probably won't.) There are two players on the list who played fewer than 10 seasons, both of whom played 9 (Mike Evans and Calvin Johnson); their numbers have been divided by 10, because prorating them is a can of worms I decline to open. This slightly minimizes their per-year impact, but I feel fairly reflects their contributions over a 10-year span. Furthermore, AJ Green would have made the list (barely; he would be in third-to-last place) if we didn't count his injured 2019 season against him. Unfortunately for him, I am counting it against him, just as I'd have counted it if he played in 1 game and gotten 0 receptions. We're looking at performance over a decade, not performance over 10 seasons. You want better numbers, don't get injured.

All that aside, behold the list!

(* denotes Evans's and Johnson's 9 seasons, ** denotes Jerry Rice's full career)

Witness the majesty of Jerry Rice. Not only is he #1 on this list by a MILE (the gap of 130 yards between him and #2 Julio Jones is bigger than the gap between Jones and #12 Calvin Johnson, and bigger again than the gap between Johnson and #30 (of 33) Gary Clark); but if you look down at #15 on the list, Jerry Rice's entire 20-year career had higher per-season averages than the 10-year peaks of Larry Fitzgerald, Cris Carter, Michael Irvin, and all but 14 other wide receivers in NFL history. That 20-year-peak, by the way, includes Rice's age-42 season. He's just Built Different.

A few other things of note: Julio Jones really ended up having one of the best careers ever, didn't he? Good for him. Torry Holt shows out well too, supporting my decade-long campaign for him as the superior "Greatest Show On Turf" Rams receiver over Isaac Bruce (who also does surprisingly well, landing at #14). Other than Jones, there's a relative lack of active players on this list; despite the NFL's best-ever ruleset for receivers, only four active receivers made the list: Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and Travis Kelce. (Kelce is also the only tight end on the list, although Tony Gonzalez barely missed it with 996 yards per season.) Lots of guys may join them in the near-ish future, especially given the NFL's insane switch to 17-game seasons. But for now we get to enjoy a list with mostly old guys, many of whom I watched.

Speaking of which: Who knew that Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin were this good? Those were my biggest surprises.

Which modern players might join it? Well, Stefon Diggs is close; if he can get 1188 yards in the next 2 seasons combined, he'll make the list. Brandin Cooks would need a rather more impressive 1384 yards next year alone, which would be a career high. Tyreek Hill needs 1660 yards in 3 years, which he will likely get in 1-2. And Amari Cooper would need 1764 yards in the next 2 years. Everyone else needs more than 2000. Jumping far ahead, Justin Jefferson, the career leader in receiving yards per game, needs 5175 yards in 7 years to make it; if he sustains his current yards/game pace (which who knows how possible that is) and plays all 17 games every year, he'll join the 10k/10 club in his 7th season. (If he keeps up that pace, he'll pass Jerry Rice's career receiving yards record in his 15th career season. That's both 25% faster than Rice and a hilariously long time to sustain an absolutely unsustainable pace in order to catch up to the GOAT. And he needs 17 games to do it, smh.)

Oh right, while we're here, let's also look at the receptions and TDs leaderboards for our 10k/10 players!

First receptions:

This one is actually a little surprising. Who knew Brandon Marshall was this good? Anyway, I'm not terribly interested in receptions as a statistic, so let's move on. (Oh, also, this is still just based on 10k yards in 10 years, so it's not even necessarily the top receptions/10 years guys.)

Now touchdowns!

That's more like it! By which I mean, that's another chart where Rice is comfortably out front of the pack. Another interesting thing -- look at the gap between the top 6 (Rice, Moss, Harrison, TO, and Carter, plus Rice's whole career -- lmao) down to everyone else (starting with Maynard). They're all at/around 10+ (with Rice up past 14, lol), and no one else is much above 8. There's a big gap there. That may correlate to quarterback performance, although probably not as much as you think, or it may indicate just a whole other echelon of deep-threat talent. It's hard to tease these things apart. Certainly, though, in my opinion at least, Rice, Moss, Harrison, Owens, and Carter is a pretty good list of, if not the greatest wide receivers of all time, something very closely approximating that. (Carter is probably the odd one out, with his paltry 1100 yards per season.)

One final note. I listed each receiver's ranking in each of these categories and averaged them out to determine their average placement in this list (so, for instance, Lance Alworth finished 33rd, and 9th, and 33rd in yards, TDs, and receptions (respectively) which averages out to (33+33+9)/3=25th). Here are the results.

Having seen prime Moss play, it's hard for me to put him anywhere but #2 all-time. But there's obviously a case to be made that Rice and Harrison are far and away the two best receivers of all time. (This chart actually understates the gap between them, as Rice is 10.4% ahead in yards, 25.4% ahead in touchdowns -- lol -- and only 7.3% behind in receptions. But still.) And if that is the case, as counterintuitive as it may seem, it's entirely possible that Marvin Harrison is one of the most underrated receivers of all time. So let's take a short break from our effusive praise of Jerry Rice (who averaged #2 on this list by finishing 1st in yards, 1st in TDs, and 4th in receptions) to heap a little praise onto Harrison (3rd, 3rd, and 1st).

(Also, another shockingly high finish from Brandon Marshall! Honestly, maybe he's the most underrated receiver of all time.)