Adrian Peterson, who missed all of last season and is over thirty, as his #1 overall pick.
Jeremy Hill, who broke 10 fantasy points seven times last season AND is splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, a very competent running back, who also broke 10 fantasy points seven times last season. You know what this reminds me of? Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. You know the single worst, kicking-yourself-all-season, how-could-you-not-get-this-yet draft pick you could make from 2010 to 2014? Either (or both) of Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams.
Frank Gore, who is 32, leaving the only system he's ever played in, and joining the single pass-heaviest team in the NFL. (Admittedly the Colts are somehow only the 16th run-lightest team in the NFL, because they just run a lot of plays. But Gore's going to lose a lot of carries.) Add to that the fact that the Colts' last half-decent fantasy running back was Joseph freaking Addai (I'm not even joking) and their last good one was Edgerrin James, and you've got a recipe for a fantasy dud. But Matthew Berry loves him.
For these reasons, among many others, I'm better at fantasy football projections than Matthew Berry. So here's my Love/Hate for the 2015 season. Loves and hates are relative to draft position, so even if I hate Adrian Peterson I'd still take him in the first round, and just because I love Justin Forsett doesn't mean I'll take him in the second when he'll be there in the late third. I'll go through by round to give you a better idea of how I feel about players relative to their ADPs.
2015 LOVES:
Marshawn Lynch, RB, ADP 5.4. Lynch is an enigma. He doesn't run the ball that much, he plays behind a terrible line, and he's taken a beating his whole career. Yet somehow he's completely unmatched when it comes to breaking tackles and bowling over defenders in the open field. He's fast, he's powerful (strongest legs in the league), and he's smart, by which I mean he limits himself to relatively few carries but makes those count. Lynch may give you some sub-10-point games, but he'll also end the season as a top 5 back. On Saturday, he'd have been the only back I'd make that promise for. Since Jordy Nelson tore his ACL, I'll extend that to the Eddie Lacy. But I still like Lynch better. The only thing that can stop him is injury, but--you ready for this?--Lynch has never played fewer than 13 games in a season, and not fewer than 15 since 2009. Since joining the Seahawks, he's been the gold standard for fantasy consistency: 1200+ yards and 11+ touchdowns every season. Know who else has come close to that? No one. Seriously. It's not even close. You want to be the guy who convinces yourself that Marshawn's due for a collapse? Be my guest. Just remember: he's younger (more than a year), more consistent, and has fewer career carries than Adrian Peterson. He's my favorite back this year.
Calvin Johnson, WR, ADP 18.0. I don't get it. Since 2008, Calvin has averaged 1378 yards and 10 TDs, including his injured season last year. Last year at this time, anyone would have called him the clear top WR in the game. Then he has one injured season, still finishes with over 1000 yards and 8 TDs, and suddenly he's a second-or-third round pick? Now people are taking Antonio Brown, who has two seasons ever better than Calvin's "Injury Season," in the first, on Calvin's old throne. Are we really so quick to forget the most talented wideout we've seen since Randy Moss? Calvin's the best receiver in the league, and that includes Gronkowski (who I've been calling the best TE I've ever seen since 2011). Against the field, I like Calvin to finish as the #1 WR better than anyone else this year. Golden Tate won't steal many looks from him (Stafford is the kind of beneficial bad where he forcefeeds his best available receiver, which is why Tate looked so good when Calvin was out, and why a healthy Calvin will return to his former volume). Take Calvin in the early second if you can and be happy with your pick.
Randall Cobb, WR, ADP 22.8. Yes, he was the #7 fantasy wideout last year. Yes, he's going 8th among receivers this year. Yes, Nelson's injury doesn't mean he'll pick up that many more targets, because he's a slot guy. But even before Jordy's injury I liked Cobb (and drafted him in two of my leagues), not necessarily because I expect him to massively outplay his ADP and finish top-five (although he might, and Jordy's injury WILL give him more targets), but because I think he's a hard lock to finish top ten this year and there are very few players that's true for. It was true for Nelson; it's true for Demaryius; it's true for Dez; and anyone else there's a chance they miss it. In fantasy football, a player who's virtually guaranteed to be elite at his position is a unicorn, and I think Cobb is that. Barring a catastrophic injury to him or to Rodgers, he's a strong choice in the late second or early third. (Of course now that Nelson is out Cobb's ADP might skyrocket to the point where he's overrated, in which case you probably don't want him. But whatever.)
Peyton Manning, QB, ADP 26.5. He's Peyton Manning. He doesn't have bad seasons. So he's 39. So what? He hasn't had a strong arm this decade, he hasn't had a legit great receiver since Harrison (watch what Demaryius does when he leaves), and he hasn't been "mobile" since... maybe ever. You really think that's going to stop him? Nothing stops him. He's the Terminator, except doughy and with a really really fast release.
Russell Wilson, QB, ADP 26.6. Maybe. I'm actually not 100% sold on this love. I mean, I DO love Russell Wilson, unquestionably. But a lot of his fantasy value (about 94 of his 312 fantasy points, depending on your scoring system) came from his running, and QB running gainz are notoriously inconsistent. Then again, Wilson has topped 489 rushing yards each of his three seasons, and he scored at least 4 TDs in two out of three, which makes me suspect his one-TD '13 effort was anomalously low. Add to that Jimmy Graham, who's by far the best red-zone threat Wilson has ever played with (in much the same way that the sun is by far the brightest star in the daytime sky), and I could easily see Wilson's numbers staying as good as they were last year or even improving. Does that necessarily mean I like him as a second round pick? No. Because I don't take QBs in the second. But I could easily see him and Peyton finishing as the top two (or two of the top three) fantasy QBs this year, and I have a hard time seeing either finishing lower than fourth. Considering how early Rodgers and Luck are going (I've seen them both go in the first on more than one occasion), I think that qualifies Wilson as a Love.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, ADP 32.7. Remember what I said about Peyton two paragraphs ago? That's all still true. Sanders is one of the two competent receivers on the Broncos (their reserve wideouts are Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer, whose best receiving seasons total 432 yards and 23 yards, respectively), depending on how much you like Owen Daniels. So either Denver is going to transition into a run-heavy offense and phase out Peyton (yeah right), or Sanders is going to have a great fantasy season. Pick one.
Justin Forsett, RB, ADP 35.0. Forsett used to be a backup for the Seahawks. None of us saw this coming. But it came, and last year Forsett was a top ten running back. He's 29, but he has the least wear on his legs of basically any 29-year-old running back ever, and his competition at the running back position consists of Lorenzo Taliaferro, Javorius Allen, and Fitzgerald Toussaint. Those don't even sound like real names. Those sound like names a 12-year-old Francophile would invent if he didn't have any other running backs on the roster but wanted to pretend he did. Anyway, Forsett is going to get a lot of carries this season, because the alternative is letting Joe Flaccastrophe throw it or running it with one of those imaginary backs. How many RBs out there have NO competition and are in a position this good? I try to pick Forsett as my #2 back whenever I can, and in a pinch (like you were trigger happy and snatched Luck in the first, then went Demaryius-Cobb in the second and third) he'll probably do okay as a #1 RB.
Andre Johnson, WR, ADP 55.6. I've always loved Andre Johnson. One of my favorite stats is that his three 1500-yard receiving campaigns is tied with Marvin Harrison for second-most behind Rice, and his four 1400-yard seasons is again tied for second, behind Rice, with Harrison, Randy Moss, and Larry Fitzgerald. (And just ahead of Calvin, who's not 30 yet. Just saying.) And he did this with almost no QB help; the best passer he ever had was an inconsistent Matt Schaub, who ranged from very good (2009) to mediocre. At 31, he almost broke 1600 yards. At 32, he caught 1400 from Matt Schaub and Case Keenum splitting starts. At 33, last year, he still topped 900 mostly from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now he's playing with Andrew Luck in a pass-happy offense that will give him the most red-zone targets he's ever gotten in his career. A career high in touchdowns is very possible, as is his record-tying fourth 1500-yard season. I don't actually expect either of those to happen (although for the record they do boost Luck's fantasy prospects), but the fact that they're possible (and would make Johnson probably the best receiver this year) makes Johnson a steal in the early-mid rounds. I mean, assuming you're not scared that he's 34. (For the record, Jerry Rice's best season came at 33, and he caught for 1211 yards and 7 TDs at 40, which is another of my favorite stats.)
Jeremy Maclin, WR, ADP 64.9. Maclin's 27, in the prime of his career, and last year he finished top-10 in WR scoring. This year he's going in the 7th round, as the 26th receiver off the board. That seems excessive. For a guy who caught 1300 yards and 10 TDs last year from the not-so-elite combination of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez, that seems excessive. Yes, he's switching to the least successful passing-to-WRs team, in Kansas City. Yes, Alex Smith isn't the best QB in the league. But maybe the reason KC was so unsuccessful throwing to WRs last year is because their best WRs were Dwyane Bowe and Literally No One, by which I mean Albert Wilson, whom you've never heard of for a reason. Maclin is a massive upgrade and, guess what, he's going to catch for a touchdown this year. Probably multiple. Probably quite a few. He's a very good receiver. Show some respect.
Tom Brady, QB, ADP 78.4. Brady's going to miss a few weeks, probably four. But when he comes back, he's going to be a very good fantasy quarterback. Don't bank on Reggie Wayne being a stud, because he's 36 and that actually is pretty old and the Patriots have a history of signing free agents who do nothing. But Brady has a history of being an elite quarterback while throwing to mediocre receivers (does anyone actually believe that Julian Edelman is a good football player? Follow-up question: Really?).
Arian Foster, RB, ADP 94.3. You might be able to get him later than this. Foster is injured and no one knows when he'll be back. But it will be before the fantasy playoffs and when he plays he'll be elite (he was the #5 running back last year and when healthy he's consistently very good). If you're in a league with a lot of bench spots or a lot of teams and you want to spend a flier on a guy who could win you your championship if you can make the playoffs, Foster's a decent choice. If you're going to get impatient and cut him week 7, draft someone else.
Darren McFadden, RB, ADP 110.1. Don't tell. But I sneakily like McFadden as a Sleeping Beauty-level sleeper. Joseph Randle, his competition at RB, isn't actually good, and his O-line (Tyron Smith, Ronald Leary, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Doug Free, and somehow La'el Collins off the bench) is legendarily good. Seriously, I can't remember the last time I saw an OL that was this solid across the board. (For reference, the '05 Seahawks were all-time great at LT and LG, but at C, RG, and RT we didn't have the kind of dominance this Dallas team does.) If anyone can make Run-DMC look like a real running back, it's this line, and it wouldn't exactly be the first time we've seen someone come out of Oakland and transform into a better player.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, ADP 119.5. Yeah, we're into the part of the draft where you're throwing your picks at a dartboard blindfolded and hoping to get lucky. Bridgewater probably won't be an elite QB this year, but he's talented, has okay talent around him, and might be able to throw a ton of touchdowns deep to Mike Wallace. We're talking backup quarterback potential here, but the hype tastes so good.
Antonio Gates, TE, ADP 124.9. Gates is an extremely low-risk, high-reward TE prospect this year. You'll be able to get him late, and if he plays well, he could easily eclipse most starters at the position. That's a big if, but everyone in the 13th round is.
Coby Fleener, TE, ADP 132.2. I don't care what anyone thinks. Fleener is going to do stuff this year. I'm grabbing him as a backup TE in a lot of leagues.
2015 HATES:
Adrian Peterson, RB, ADP 3.3. We covered this in the intro, but in case you forgot: Peterson missed all of last year after getting suspended for beating his young son; he's 30 years old with a lot of miles on him; and he's playing with a quarterback in Bridgewater who might run the offense well enough to necessitate a drop in Peterson's usage. I just really, really hate drafting a guy in the early first round who missed a year, even if it's not to injury. Yeah, he did this before and came back to break 2000 yards. That doesn't mean he's going to do it again. Actually, let's say that more strongly: He will not do that again. Peterson has high elite upside, but he also has more downside than any other RB you'd take in the top five picks (I like Bell, Lacy, Charles, Lynch, and even Murray more than Peterson this year). There's no reason to gamble like this when you have this good a pick.
Antonio Brown, WR, ADP 8.1. I just don't like taking receivers in the first round. I'm old-school like that. Yes, Brown is great and has fantastic upside, but we have to look at the little things, like draft order. If you take Brown 8th in a 10-man league, you're looking at a running back like C.J. Anderson or LeSean McCoy as your #1. Which is fine, maybe. But if you take DeMarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch 8th, you can pick up a guy like Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the second, who I like just as much as Brown this year. (Or Calvin! Just saying.) So it comes down to whether you'd rather have Brown and Anderson or Murray and Thomas, and for me that's a really easy choice. Speaking of which...
C.J. Anderson, RB, ADP 11.6. Anderson had about 850 yards last season. I don't care how much you like Kubiak's zone-blocking system; I don't care how great he was in the last eight games of the season; I don't care how sold you are on Denver's offense. He had less than 900 yards and he's going as a #1 RB. He's also playing in a Peyton Manning offense--remember that stat about the last time Indy had an elite fantasy running back? Yeah. Add to that the fact that Anderson's competing with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, both of whom are actually competent backs, and Anderson looks less and less appealing. The addition of Evan Mathis makes Anderson a little more palatable, but not when compared to other guys at his ADP. If this is your first RB pick, get Forte or Murray and snag one of Morris or Forsett in the third or fourth. I like all those guys more than Anderson.
LeSean McCoy, RB, ADP 14.8. DeMarco Murray switched from one team with a great run-blocking line to another team with a great run-blocking line. I think he's going to do fine. McCoy, on the other hand, switched from a team with a great run-blocking line to Buffalo, home of the razorcakes. Buffalo is not a great place to be a fantasy running back. C.J. Spiller had a great year there in 2012; Fred Jackson was pretty good in 2009; and Marshawn had some good years in '07 and '08, but you can never expect the kind of success McCoy saw in Philly. Someone's going to gamble on McCoy and it shouldn't be you.
Jeremy Hill, RB, ADP 18.5. Hill's another guy I covered in the introduction. I see him splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, who's somehow getting forgotten in all the hype, along with the sad fantasy fact that if you're a coach, you'd much rather split carries between your two good backs than have one of them take 95%.
Mark Ingram, RB, ADP 28.4. There are three big rules when it comes to drafting fantasy RBs. Don't draft running backs who play in high-passing-volume offenses; don't draft running backs who are part of a talented committee; and never, ever draft a running back for a team whose last 1000-yard back was Deuce McAllister in 2006. Guess which lucky back all three of these rules apply to? Ingram's playing with Drew Brees, who's a master of the "instead of running it let's just throw a nice short pattern to a receiver you've never heard of" school of play. He's sharing carries with Khiry Robinson, Tim Hightower, and oh yeah CJ Spiller. And that Deuce statistic is real. Ingram might be the worst pick in this year's draft.
Jimmy Graham, TE, ADP 29.0. There aren't three big rules for drafting fantasy TEs, but if there were one of them would definitely be not to take a TE who just switched from the aforementioned heavy-passing offense to one of the heaviest rushing offenses in the league. Graham is a great player, and he'll get a ton of looks in the red zone with the Seahawks. But he's also gotten targeted 125-150 times in each of the last four seasons. Wilson's only going to throw the ball around 450-500 times this season, and he won't throw a third of his targets to Graham. Meanwhile Brees threw at least 650 passes every season of Graham's career. If Graham can repeat last year's not-that-inspiring performance, it'll be a miracle. Don't expect anything like his 2011 or 2013 dominance.
Carlos Hyde, RB, ADP 39.0. Oh yeah, I forgot another rule of running backs. No matter how consistent and great his predecessor was, don't ever expect a back whose career rushing total is 333 yards and 4 TDs to step up and break 1100 yards and 10 TDs. Which is what ESPN's projections have Hyde doing. Especially with all the talent evaporating from San Francisco like so much fog, Hyde is absolutely NOT a great bet to break out. I understand that RB talent is limited in the middle rounds (and the late rounds; really, try to get two RBs by the time Forsett and Morris go), but just realize that taking Hyde is a HUGE gamble.
Frank Gore, RB, ADP 40.3. I already explained why I don't like Gore in the intro. He's a great player (historically) and a first-ballot entrant to the Hall of Very Good, but don't expect starting-level performance from him, even as a flex pick.
Seahawks D/ST, ADP 61.4. No. Don't ever take a D/ST this early. Just don't. The optimal strategy is streaming D/STs, but even if you don't do that, the difference in scoring between the top fantasy D/ST last year (which WASN'T the Seahawks, by the way; they finished third. #1 was the Bills) and the 10th (the worst D/ST you could reasonably expect to start in a 10-team league) was 48 points last year. That's three points per week. The marginal value of a player you take in the early 7th round vs. a player you take in the late 8th round really ought to be more than three points. (If you're taking a D/ST in the 16th round, like you should be, then the marginal value between your 7th-round pick and your 16th-rounder should be WAY bigger than three points.) But more importantly, the breakout potential you get by picking two players in those two slots rather than one and a D/ST is huge. No one's ever won their league by drafting a really good D/ST in the seventh round. But (virtually) everyone who's ever won their league drafted someone good in the middle rounds who broke out.
Joique Bell, RB, ADP 62.4. You know the drill by now. Pass-happy team, RBBC (running back by committee). Last time Detroit produced a 1000-yard back was Reggie Bush in 2013; prior to that it was Kevin Jones in 2004. Bell is injured which makes things a little more interesting, but "interesting" is not something you want to gamble on.
C.J. Spiller, RB, ADP 73.2. See Ingram, Mark. Or actually Mark Ingram since this list isn't sorted by last name. Spiller's a better pick thank Ingram, but only because it's a lot easier to recoup from blowing an 8th rounder than a 3rd.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, ADP 83.8. See Joique Bell. This is the guy who's going to share carries with him. Sharing carries only very rarely leads to fantasy success for both share-carriers. In this case, it won't.
Russell Wilson, QB, ADP 26.6. Maybe. I'm actually not 100% sold on this love. I mean, I DO love Russell Wilson, unquestionably. But a lot of his fantasy value (about 94 of his 312 fantasy points, depending on your scoring system) came from his running, and QB running gainz are notoriously inconsistent. Then again, Wilson has topped 489 rushing yards each of his three seasons, and he scored at least 4 TDs in two out of three, which makes me suspect his one-TD '13 effort was anomalously low. Add to that Jimmy Graham, who's by far the best red-zone threat Wilson has ever played with (in much the same way that the sun is by far the brightest star in the daytime sky), and I could easily see Wilson's numbers staying as good as they were last year or even improving. Does that necessarily mean I like him as a second round pick? No. Because I don't take QBs in the second. But I could easily see him and Peyton finishing as the top two (or two of the top three) fantasy QBs this year, and I have a hard time seeing either finishing lower than fourth. Considering how early Rodgers and Luck are going (I've seen them both go in the first on more than one occasion), I think that qualifies Wilson as a Love.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, ADP 32.7. Remember what I said about Peyton two paragraphs ago? That's all still true. Sanders is one of the two competent receivers on the Broncos (their reserve wideouts are Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer, whose best receiving seasons total 432 yards and 23 yards, respectively), depending on how much you like Owen Daniels. So either Denver is going to transition into a run-heavy offense and phase out Peyton (yeah right), or Sanders is going to have a great fantasy season. Pick one.
Justin Forsett, RB, ADP 35.0. Forsett used to be a backup for the Seahawks. None of us saw this coming. But it came, and last year Forsett was a top ten running back. He's 29, but he has the least wear on his legs of basically any 29-year-old running back ever, and his competition at the running back position consists of Lorenzo Taliaferro, Javorius Allen, and Fitzgerald Toussaint. Those don't even sound like real names. Those sound like names a 12-year-old Francophile would invent if he didn't have any other running backs on the roster but wanted to pretend he did. Anyway, Forsett is going to get a lot of carries this season, because the alternative is letting Joe Flaccastrophe throw it or running it with one of those imaginary backs. How many RBs out there have NO competition and are in a position this good? I try to pick Forsett as my #2 back whenever I can, and in a pinch (like you were trigger happy and snatched Luck in the first, then went Demaryius-Cobb in the second and third) he'll probably do okay as a #1 RB.
Andre Johnson, WR, ADP 55.6. I've always loved Andre Johnson. One of my favorite stats is that his three 1500-yard receiving campaigns is tied with Marvin Harrison for second-most behind Rice, and his four 1400-yard seasons is again tied for second, behind Rice, with Harrison, Randy Moss, and Larry Fitzgerald. (And just ahead of Calvin, who's not 30 yet. Just saying.) And he did this with almost no QB help; the best passer he ever had was an inconsistent Matt Schaub, who ranged from very good (2009) to mediocre. At 31, he almost broke 1600 yards. At 32, he caught 1400 from Matt Schaub and Case Keenum splitting starts. At 33, last year, he still topped 900 mostly from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now he's playing with Andrew Luck in a pass-happy offense that will give him the most red-zone targets he's ever gotten in his career. A career high in touchdowns is very possible, as is his record-tying fourth 1500-yard season. I don't actually expect either of those to happen (although for the record they do boost Luck's fantasy prospects), but the fact that they're possible (and would make Johnson probably the best receiver this year) makes Johnson a steal in the early-mid rounds. I mean, assuming you're not scared that he's 34. (For the record, Jerry Rice's best season came at 33, and he caught for 1211 yards and 7 TDs at 40, which is another of my favorite stats.)
Jeremy Maclin, WR, ADP 64.9. Maclin's 27, in the prime of his career, and last year he finished top-10 in WR scoring. This year he's going in the 7th round, as the 26th receiver off the board. That seems excessive. For a guy who caught 1300 yards and 10 TDs last year from the not-so-elite combination of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez, that seems excessive. Yes, he's switching to the least successful passing-to-WRs team, in Kansas City. Yes, Alex Smith isn't the best QB in the league. But maybe the reason KC was so unsuccessful throwing to WRs last year is because their best WRs were Dwyane Bowe and Literally No One, by which I mean Albert Wilson, whom you've never heard of for a reason. Maclin is a massive upgrade and, guess what, he's going to catch for a touchdown this year. Probably multiple. Probably quite a few. He's a very good receiver. Show some respect.
Tom Brady, QB, ADP 78.4. Brady's going to miss a few weeks, probably four. But when he comes back, he's going to be a very good fantasy quarterback. Don't bank on Reggie Wayne being a stud, because he's 36 and that actually is pretty old and the Patriots have a history of signing free agents who do nothing. But Brady has a history of being an elite quarterback while throwing to mediocre receivers (does anyone actually believe that Julian Edelman is a good football player? Follow-up question: Really?).
Arian Foster, RB, ADP 94.3. You might be able to get him later than this. Foster is injured and no one knows when he'll be back. But it will be before the fantasy playoffs and when he plays he'll be elite (he was the #5 running back last year and when healthy he's consistently very good). If you're in a league with a lot of bench spots or a lot of teams and you want to spend a flier on a guy who could win you your championship if you can make the playoffs, Foster's a decent choice. If you're going to get impatient and cut him week 7, draft someone else.
Darren McFadden, RB, ADP 110.1. Don't tell. But I sneakily like McFadden as a Sleeping Beauty-level sleeper. Joseph Randle, his competition at RB, isn't actually good, and his O-line (Tyron Smith, Ronald Leary, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Doug Free, and somehow La'el Collins off the bench) is legendarily good. Seriously, I can't remember the last time I saw an OL that was this solid across the board. (For reference, the '05 Seahawks were all-time great at LT and LG, but at C, RG, and RT we didn't have the kind of dominance this Dallas team does.) If anyone can make Run-DMC look like a real running back, it's this line, and it wouldn't exactly be the first time we've seen someone come out of Oakland and transform into a better player.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, ADP 119.5. Yeah, we're into the part of the draft where you're throwing your picks at a dartboard blindfolded and hoping to get lucky. Bridgewater probably won't be an elite QB this year, but he's talented, has okay talent around him, and might be able to throw a ton of touchdowns deep to Mike Wallace. We're talking backup quarterback potential here, but the hype tastes so good.
Antonio Gates, TE, ADP 124.9. Gates is an extremely low-risk, high-reward TE prospect this year. You'll be able to get him late, and if he plays well, he could easily eclipse most starters at the position. That's a big if, but everyone in the 13th round is.
Coby Fleener, TE, ADP 132.2. I don't care what anyone thinks. Fleener is going to do stuff this year. I'm grabbing him as a backup TE in a lot of leagues.
2015 HATES:
Adrian Peterson, RB, ADP 3.3. We covered this in the intro, but in case you forgot: Peterson missed all of last year after getting suspended for beating his young son; he's 30 years old with a lot of miles on him; and he's playing with a quarterback in Bridgewater who might run the offense well enough to necessitate a drop in Peterson's usage. I just really, really hate drafting a guy in the early first round who missed a year, even if it's not to injury. Yeah, he did this before and came back to break 2000 yards. That doesn't mean he's going to do it again. Actually, let's say that more strongly: He will not do that again. Peterson has high elite upside, but he also has more downside than any other RB you'd take in the top five picks (I like Bell, Lacy, Charles, Lynch, and even Murray more than Peterson this year). There's no reason to gamble like this when you have this good a pick.
Antonio Brown, WR, ADP 8.1. I just don't like taking receivers in the first round. I'm old-school like that. Yes, Brown is great and has fantastic upside, but we have to look at the little things, like draft order. If you take Brown 8th in a 10-man league, you're looking at a running back like C.J. Anderson or LeSean McCoy as your #1. Which is fine, maybe. But if you take DeMarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch 8th, you can pick up a guy like Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the second, who I like just as much as Brown this year. (Or Calvin! Just saying.) So it comes down to whether you'd rather have Brown and Anderson or Murray and Thomas, and for me that's a really easy choice. Speaking of which...
C.J. Anderson, RB, ADP 11.6. Anderson had about 850 yards last season. I don't care how much you like Kubiak's zone-blocking system; I don't care how great he was in the last eight games of the season; I don't care how sold you are on Denver's offense. He had less than 900 yards and he's going as a #1 RB. He's also playing in a Peyton Manning offense--remember that stat about the last time Indy had an elite fantasy running back? Yeah. Add to that the fact that Anderson's competing with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, both of whom are actually competent backs, and Anderson looks less and less appealing. The addition of Evan Mathis makes Anderson a little more palatable, but not when compared to other guys at his ADP. If this is your first RB pick, get Forte or Murray and snag one of Morris or Forsett in the third or fourth. I like all those guys more than Anderson.
LeSean McCoy, RB, ADP 14.8. DeMarco Murray switched from one team with a great run-blocking line to another team with a great run-blocking line. I think he's going to do fine. McCoy, on the other hand, switched from a team with a great run-blocking line to Buffalo, home of the razorcakes. Buffalo is not a great place to be a fantasy running back. C.J. Spiller had a great year there in 2012; Fred Jackson was pretty good in 2009; and Marshawn had some good years in '07 and '08, but you can never expect the kind of success McCoy saw in Philly. Someone's going to gamble on McCoy and it shouldn't be you.
Jeremy Hill, RB, ADP 18.5. Hill's another guy I covered in the introduction. I see him splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, who's somehow getting forgotten in all the hype, along with the sad fantasy fact that if you're a coach, you'd much rather split carries between your two good backs than have one of them take 95%.
Mark Ingram, RB, ADP 28.4. There are three big rules when it comes to drafting fantasy RBs. Don't draft running backs who play in high-passing-volume offenses; don't draft running backs who are part of a talented committee; and never, ever draft a running back for a team whose last 1000-yard back was Deuce McAllister in 2006. Guess which lucky back all three of these rules apply to? Ingram's playing with Drew Brees, who's a master of the "instead of running it let's just throw a nice short pattern to a receiver you've never heard of" school of play. He's sharing carries with Khiry Robinson, Tim Hightower, and oh yeah CJ Spiller. And that Deuce statistic is real. Ingram might be the worst pick in this year's draft.
Jimmy Graham, TE, ADP 29.0. There aren't three big rules for drafting fantasy TEs, but if there were one of them would definitely be not to take a TE who just switched from the aforementioned heavy-passing offense to one of the heaviest rushing offenses in the league. Graham is a great player, and he'll get a ton of looks in the red zone with the Seahawks. But he's also gotten targeted 125-150 times in each of the last four seasons. Wilson's only going to throw the ball around 450-500 times this season, and he won't throw a third of his targets to Graham. Meanwhile Brees threw at least 650 passes every season of Graham's career. If Graham can repeat last year's not-that-inspiring performance, it'll be a miracle. Don't expect anything like his 2011 or 2013 dominance.
Carlos Hyde, RB, ADP 39.0. Oh yeah, I forgot another rule of running backs. No matter how consistent and great his predecessor was, don't ever expect a back whose career rushing total is 333 yards and 4 TDs to step up and break 1100 yards and 10 TDs. Which is what ESPN's projections have Hyde doing. Especially with all the talent evaporating from San Francisco like so much fog, Hyde is absolutely NOT a great bet to break out. I understand that RB talent is limited in the middle rounds (and the late rounds; really, try to get two RBs by the time Forsett and Morris go), but just realize that taking Hyde is a HUGE gamble.
Frank Gore, RB, ADP 40.3. I already explained why I don't like Gore in the intro. He's a great player (historically) and a first-ballot entrant to the Hall of Very Good, but don't expect starting-level performance from him, even as a flex pick.
Seahawks D/ST, ADP 61.4. No. Don't ever take a D/ST this early. Just don't. The optimal strategy is streaming D/STs, but even if you don't do that, the difference in scoring between the top fantasy D/ST last year (which WASN'T the Seahawks, by the way; they finished third. #1 was the Bills) and the 10th (the worst D/ST you could reasonably expect to start in a 10-team league) was 48 points last year. That's three points per week. The marginal value of a player you take in the early 7th round vs. a player you take in the late 8th round really ought to be more than three points. (If you're taking a D/ST in the 16th round, like you should be, then the marginal value between your 7th-round pick and your 16th-rounder should be WAY bigger than three points.) But more importantly, the breakout potential you get by picking two players in those two slots rather than one and a D/ST is huge. No one's ever won their league by drafting a really good D/ST in the seventh round. But (virtually) everyone who's ever won their league drafted someone good in the middle rounds who broke out.
Joique Bell, RB, ADP 62.4. You know the drill by now. Pass-happy team, RBBC (running back by committee). Last time Detroit produced a 1000-yard back was Reggie Bush in 2013; prior to that it was Kevin Jones in 2004. Bell is injured which makes things a little more interesting, but "interesting" is not something you want to gamble on.
C.J. Spiller, RB, ADP 73.2. See Ingram, Mark. Or actually Mark Ingram since this list isn't sorted by last name. Spiller's a better pick thank Ingram, but only because it's a lot easier to recoup from blowing an 8th rounder than a 3rd.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, ADP 83.8. See Joique Bell. This is the guy who's going to share carries with him. Sharing carries only very rarely leads to fantasy success for both share-carriers. In this case, it won't.
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