Q. What's the deal with Aaron Rodgers?
A. So Aaron Rodgers has been really good the past three games. How good? Well, his uncapped passer rating in each of the past three games has been 145.0, 116.9, and 146.5 respectively. His Packers are 3-0 in surprisingly not-blowouts over Chicago, Seattle, and Kansas City. But this isn't really special for Rodgers.
Q. Why? Has he done this before?
A. Back in Week 7 of last year, Rodgers was finishing up a run for the ages. I noted this in my writeup for that week: Rodgers had just finished a run of four games with ratings of 160.1, 158.0, 99.7, and 167.8. (I also correctly predicted Rodgers's return to the MVP conversation following that stretch.) F
Following that fourth game, Rodgers put up a "down" game of 93.8, then returned to form with a fucking absurd 180.3 game against Chicago (capped, it was 145.8. #this is why we need uncapped passer rating). Following that he came back to the mortal plane, not breaking 140 for the rest of the season. As if 140 is a bad passer rating. But over that stretch, from week 4 to week 9, he averaged a passer rating of 134.7. That's only slightly worse than his four-game average of 138.1, although sadly he does drop below the TD% cap (this only makes sense if you go read my UPR article and then the Week 7 writeup).
Basically what I'm saying is that as good as Rodgers has been, he's barely better than the cooldown from after his dominant stretch last season. That being said he's still the best QB in the NFL this season (so far) and will probably be an MVP candidate. You know, like Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer, both of whom have yet to throw for a passer rating under 100. In fact, between the two of them they have only one game (out of six) under a 115 passer rating.
Q. Wait... what?
A. You fucking heard me. Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer have combined for a seasonal passer rating of 119.4. That's better than the career best of Joe Montana, Drew Brees, and even Tyrod Taylor.
Q. But not Tom Brady?
A. No. But only because of this season (it's better than every season he's had before this).
Q. What's Tom Brady doing this season?
A. Oh, nothing much. Just leading the league in completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions (as in 0), interception percentage (as in 0%), and yards per game (duh).
Q. What about completion percentage? Brady's at 72.2%. Isn't the all-time record Drew Brees's 71.2% from 2011?
A. Yes. But despite being a full percentage point ahead of the record, Brady's completion percentage still ranks only sixth this year, after Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, and the incomparable Tyrod Taylor. And Aaron Rodgers.
Q. Oh yeah, I forgot that Romo and Rivers existed. And I definitely didn't realize how many passes they had completed.
A. I remembered they existed but I had no idea that there were no less than seven players with completion rates above 70%. After all, there have only ever been five seasons above a 70% completion rate: Brees, Brees, Ken Anderson, Steve Young, and Joe Montana.
Q. Wait, seven? Who's the seventh?
A. Russell Wilson. Of course.
Q. I thought he sucked this year?
A. No, just his offensive coordinator. Bevell's best offensive feat is pissing off the entire Seahawks fanbase every time he runs the ball on third and 15.
Q. Why would you run the ball on third and 15?
A. Hypothetically, if your quarterback was really inconsistent on deep balls and turned it over a lot, you might want to throw away a down to ensure that you'd get a punt off. Even though it's a pretty big vote of no confidence for your offense, which is a really shitty thing to do as a coordinator.
Q. But wait, didn't you just tell me Wilson's on pace for the sixth-best completion rate of all time (disregarding the other clowns from this season)? And doesn't he have a really low interception rate even at his worst?
A. Actually he's on pace for the fourth-best completion rate ever (he beats out both Montana and Young, like a god). But he is on pace for a career-worst 10.7 interceptions this year. (He's improved each of the past three years, though, from 10 to 9 to 7). So maybe Bevell is really scared of him turning it over on deep balls. Then again, Wilson does have one of the best deep balls in the NFL over his career. I'm gonna go with Occam's razor on this one: Bevell is just really bad at play calling.
Q. So what other notable QB occurrences have happened so far this year?
A. Well, Mariota is having a pretty good rookie season. By which I mean he's on pace for by far the greatest rookie QB season of all time. He's actually one of the five guys who beats out Brady in TD%.
Q. Who's first and fourth, respectively, on the TD% list?
A. Glad you asked! First is obviously Carson Palmer (who's thrown a TD on 10.2% of his attempts. The modern record, held by Peyton Manning from 2004, is 9.9%. Everyone ahead of Manning on the list (and 9 of the current top 10) played before the 1970 merger. Basically, Palmer is having a better season, speaking strictly in terms of offensive production (touchdowns matter; yards don't), than any quarterback since 1949. Fourth is, naturally, Andy Dalton, at 8.7%.
Q. Why do you insist on grouping Palmer and Dalton together? One is old-school, the other is fairly young. One is playing with an elderly Larry Fitzgerald and who the fuck else?, the other is playing with AJ freaking Green. One is leading an offense that has scored 42 points per game, the other is leading an offense that has scored 28 points per game.
A. Okay, first of all, none of those facts are that different. Second, I want to take this opportunity to point out that in my fantasy football love/hate, I predicted Hill to split carries with Bernard; so far this season Hill and Bernard have EXACTLY the same number of carries (41 each) and Bernard has nearly twice the yards. (This isn't relevant but I like being right.) And third, there's a ton of very legitimate reasons to group them together: They're both Bengals QBs (or formal Bengals QBs), they're both ginger, and they're both doing weirdly well despite not actually being that good.
Q. So they're not actually that good? That answers my next question. Who's your MVP pick this year?
A. Certainly none of them. The only QBs with a chance are Rodgers and Brady. I could see it going either way. And MVP is a stupid award so no one else has a chance.
Q. Cool. Peace.
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2016 Predictions and Analysis!!
Well, it's finally mid-September, and that can only mean one thing: the NFL announcing its list of 108 Pro Football Hall of Fame nominees! 25 of the nominees will be named semifinalists in November, fifteen will be finalists in January, and five will be enshrined forever in Canton.
I'll go through each positional group and talk about the interesting and relevant members of that group. (In other words, players whom I'm pretty sure will make the final 25 (and 15, and 5) like Brett Favre, will get more discussion than players who don't have a chance at making the first cut, like Vinny Testaverde.)
Players who were a finalist last year will have an asterisk (*) next to their name; players in their first year of eligibility will be in CAPS. (N.B. first-year eligible players are rarely enshrined and basically need to be in the conversation for GOAT at their position in order to make the cut.)
QB: Drew Bledsoe, BRETT FAVRE, Steve McNair, Phil Simms, Vinny Testaverde, Kurt Warner*.
Drew Bledsoe: There's an argument that some of the less original members of the football media and fandom make regarding which players should make the Hall of Fame. The argument is this: If you can't tell the story of the NFL without talking about a given player, then he should be a HoFer. This argument is stupid. I like to use three examples to disprove it. First, JaMarcus Russell. Russell went first overall in the awful QB draft class of 2007, made tens of million dollars while earning a reputation as one of the biggest busts in NFL history, and almost singlehandedly forced the CBA to set a hard rookie wage scale so that no team would ever fuck up this badly again. Second, David Tyree, whose "helmet catch" to win a huge upset in Super Bowl 42 is one of the most famous football plays of all time, but who did absolutely nothing else with his career. And third, Drew Bledsoe, who--it seems--existed only to pave the way for Tom Brady's takeover of the starter position and ascension into godhood. Bledsoe was a good player and honestly probably deserves more respect than he gets, but he's no more (well, only slightly more) a Hall of Famer than Russell or Tyree. (Okay, so maybe I'll write a lot for some players who don't have a chance at the first cut.)
Brett Favre: Favre occupies a unique position in the NFL mythology. He had one of the greatest starts to a career in NFL history, winning three consecutive MVPs in the mid-'90s ('95-'97) and winning a Super Bowl to boot in '96 (as the offensive leader of one of the greatest teams of all time, by the way). He was never quite that good again (unless you buy that his 2009 season was as great as it looked on paper), but over the next 14 years he established an uncontested reputation as the greatest ironman in NFL history, starting 321 consecutive games (the equivalent of 20 consecutive regular seasons) from 1992 to 2010. At the time of his retirement, Favre held basically every volume statistic and most of them weren't close, including the bad ones (interceptions). But sometime between his peak in the '90s and his resurgence in 2009, Favre went from being considered a notorious, unflappable gunslinger to a relatively inefficient volume quarterback, a relic from a bygone age. By the time he retired, despite his astonishing career achievements, very few people considered him a genuine contender for the GOAT quarterback conversation. But even so, it's very hard to make an argument against him being a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I happily include him in this class. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Steve McNair: McNair was a thrilling quarterback and his 2003 season was genuinely amazing. That's as much as I can say for him.
Phil Simms: Players with one or two Pro Bowls should never make the HoF. I don't understand why guys like Simms merit consideration.
Vinny Testaverde: Testaverde played for almost 20 years, so that's pretty cool. But he'll be a first-round cut.
Kurt Warner: Warner is another player with a completely unique career trajectory. He entered the NFL at 27 after a successful career working in a grocery store and rapidly achieved a comparable level of success as a two-time MVP and one-time Super Bowl champion (for the Rams; they beat Tennessee in a thriller in '99 and lost to New England in a thriller in '01), as well as the quarterback of several of the greatest offenses of all time from '99 to '01. Very few players have ever reached the kind of peak that Warner showed in those three years (which was almost categorically better statistically than Favre's three-MVP stretch, and no there wasn't a significant change in the passing game between 1995 and 2001), and most of those who have are locks for Canton. Most of them, however, didn't fall off the face of the earth for six years after their amazing stretch, which is exactly what Warner did (he really had five terrible years and one okay one). In 2008, he emerged again to put up another amazing season and lead another thrilling team (this time the Cardinals) to another heartbreaking loss (this time to the Steelers) in the '08 Super Bowl, then retired after one last decent season. That's not exactly the profile you expect from a future Hall of Fame QB, but you also can't deny a guy who's done what Warner has done admittance to Canton. I think. Final 15.
RB: Shaun Alexander, Ottis Anderson, Tiki Barber, Roger Craig, Stephen Davis, Terrell Davis*, Eddie George, Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, Daryl Johnston, Jamal Lewis, CLINTON PORTIS, Herschel Walker, Ricky Watters, BRIAN WESTBROOK.
Shaun Alexander: Shaun's pretty close to the ceiling for RBs who won't make the Hall of Fame. He had five good seasons, including one great one (in 2005) and one very good one ('04). Is that enough to make Canton? It can't be. It shouldn't be. But as will become evident in the coming entries, I really have no idea what the floor for RB inductees is. (By "floor" I mean the theoretical worst possible running back who would make Canton. Any RB better than him should make it and any RB worse should miss it. Of course it doesn't work like this in practice--Marvin Harrison isn't enshrined yet despite being better than most Hall of Fame wide receivers--but it's still a good way to think about the process.)
Ottis Anderson: I've literally never heard of this person, which is rare for me. It looks like he was pretty good for a few years from '79 into the early '80s, but he can't be close to Canton.
Tiki Barber: Tiki's notable for being the guy who laughs at the idea that RBs get worse as they get older. He was mediocre from the ages of 22-26, then abruptly got really good from 27-31, with five straight seasons of 1200 yards or more. He ended his career, from the ages of 29-31, with back-to-back-to-back seasons of 1518, 1860, and 1662 yards. What a guy. I don't see him ever making the Hall--he might sneak in eventually, but he's not in the top echelon of this class of RBs, let alone overall--but he's definitely a unique player.
Roger Craig: Craig somehow had a season of 1000 yards each rushing and receiving, which is fucking amazing, but beyond that I'm not sure why he's in consideration here. Again, though, I have no idea what the floor for inductees is or should be.
Stephen Davis: Here's the second guy I've never heard of. He had four very good seasons (1300+ yards) around the turn of the millennium, which seems like too little.
Terrell Davis: Finally a real contender. Well, not really; Davis was good for all of four seasons. Yes, one of those was his 1998 year where he ran for 2008 yards and 21 TDs on 5.1 YPC, which no one else has ever done; and yes, two of the other ones were 1750/15/4.7 and 1538/13/4.5, both of which are pretty great. I personally put that '98 season up as maybe the greatest running season ever, at least statistically speaking. I don't know whether that's enough for him to get inducted. He generally gets disrespected by the induction council (he retired in '01 but has only been in consideration once, last year), which makes me think his odds aren't great, but he could limp in like Ray Guy did (although their situations are vastly different). Final 15.
Eddie George: That mediocrity. Save it for the Hall of Very Good, champ.
Priest Holmes: Where is the floor?? Priest was very, very good for three years from '01 to '03. His claim to fame is basically being First-Team All-Pro in those three years, which is cool but ultimately insufficient (probably. Most guys with a lot of FTAPs eventually sneak in though). Oh yeah, and he's the guy who held the rushing TD record before Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson broke it in consecutive years.
Edgerrin James: I think James has a better shot than most of these guys. He gets slept on, but the dude has four 1500-yard seasons. In terms of number of 1500+ yd seasons, it goes Barry Sanders, then Edge, Eric Dickerson, and Walter Peyton, and then the field (which includes, by the way, Tiki Barber, Terrell Davis, and the upcoming Clinton Portis, all of whom have three). That's pretty impressive. I don't know that James was ever good enough, or that he was good enough for long enough, to make Canton, but again... I have no idea where the floor for induction is. I don't see James making it, though; at least not this year.
Daryl Johnston: Who? Do fullbacks make the Hall of Fame? If so, induct Mack Strong and Lorenzo Neal (in that order) first.
Jamal Lewis: Another entrant in the "I got 2000 yards; do I make the Hall?" category. This category is going to be pretty big; of the seven guys to break 2000, three are in Canton, two are borderline (Davis and Adrian Peterson), and two are slightly lower borderline (Lewis and the currently underrated Chris Johnson). I have NO idea which if any of the four will make it, but the latter two probably won't.
Clinton Portis: How does a guy run for 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs and not make the Pro Bowl? Ask Portis; he did it twice. I don't know what to do with a guy who had six very good seasons and a couple mediocre ones. He probably misses it. But again, this whole RB class (at least the best of it) is in this weird nebulous category where they're not actually all-time greats but they did some very impressive things, and I don't know how to choose between them.
Herschel Walker: Yeah, no. He got some good publicity this year, although I can't remember for what, which is probably why he's on this list, but he shouldn't factor in this year.
Ricky Watters: First-ballot Hall of Very Good inductee. (I've mentioned this facetious concept a few times; it should be obvious from the name what I mean by it. Sometimes these guys make the Hall, but they really shouldn't.)
Brian Westbrook: Westbrook used to be Marshall Faulk Very Lite back in the day. That's actually a really impressive title to have, but I don't think it's enough. Maybe my standards for inducting RBs are too high. But I don't want any TRASH in my HALL OF FAME can you DIG IT?
WR: Isaac Bruce, Gary Clark, Henry Ellard, Marvin Harrison*, Torry Holt, TERRELL OWENS, Sterling Sharpe, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith.
Isaac Bruce: Most people think that Bruce was the better of the Rams' two great receivers (the other one being Holt). I don't understand why people think this. It's obvious to me that Holt was better and Bruce got slightly better career statistics by limping out his last few years in mediocrity. That's not to say Bruce is a bad player; he was very good, and might someday sneak into Canton, in a very long time when the 15 or so WRs who will be ahead of him in the next 10 years have gotten in (this might take more than 10 years). Um.
Gary Clark: Wait, what? This guy has five seasons of 1000 yards and none of them were that great. His biggest claim to fame is outperforming 34-year-old Art Monk on the '91 Redskins (one of the greatest teams ever). He seems like a worse version of Monk, and I don't even think Monk should have made it. Maybe I'm spoiled in the WR category. But don't worry; I do know where the floor is in this category. It's higher than Clark.
Henry Ellard: Ellard's one of those guys who played forever and was very good but probably isn't Hall of Fame material. Again, these guys sometimes make the Hall of Fame. It happens. It probably won't happen this year.
Marvin Harrison: It is a travesty that Harrison didn't make the Hall on his first ballot last year. Harrison might very well be the third- or fourth-best wide receiver in NFL history. The fact that he played most of his career with Peyton Manning in no way invalidates his incredible performance from 1999 to 2006. After all, Jerry Rice played with Joe Montana and Steve Young; Randy Moss played with Tom Brady and Randle Cunningham; and Terrell Owens played with Young, Donovan McNabb, and Tony Romo. I have to hope that the committee will correct its mistake this year and induct Harrison. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Torry Holt: I know where the floor is for a WR to be inducted, and Holt is way above it. From 2000 on, the guy had seasons of 1600 yards receiving, 1300, 1300, 1600, 1300, 1300. That's six straight seasons of 1300 plus with two amazing ones. And only two of them were during Warner's great years. Holt, at least for me, was a borderline first-ballot guy, and honestly I'd probably induct him this year. That being said, the council is dumb and probably won't. My statistical analysis suggests that Holt is one of the five best receivers ever, along with Rice, Moss, Harrison (!), and (maybe? I forget) Owens. It's just unfortunate for him that he's (wrongly) considered fifth in that group and it's not likely the committee will induct three wide receivers this year. But they should. Final 15.
Terrell Owens: Owens has been considered a first-ballot inductee since his career ended. He's a guy whose peak was very high and lasted for a long time, but honestly in my opinion he was never really that great. He's going to make it mostly on account of his longevity and his career stats, and most fans and pundits consider him a top three wide receiver of all time, but I put a lot more value on peak and less value on touchdowns than most pundits do. Still, even if I think he should have to wait a year, the committee will almost certainly induct him right away. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Sterling Sharpe: Sharpe is the WR equivalent of one of those very good RBs who won't make the Hall. He had a couple very good seasons, but his career was really short and never really transcendent. While I don't know whether running backs with careers like that will have a chance at the Hall, wide receivers certainly don't.
Jimmy Smith: I don't actually know that much about Smith, besides the fact that he's not a quitter, but his numbers speak for themselves. His stats--besides touchdowns--compare favorably to Owens's, and that's saying something. But the lack of accolades (five Pro Bowls and no First-Team All-Pro selections) will hold him back. Final 25.
Rod Smith: Rod's basically Jimmy Lite, and since Jimmy's probably a borderline candidate, so Rod will miss it.
TE: Mark Bavaro, Jay Novacek.
Mark Bavaro: No. Bavaro was not that good a player.
Jay Novacek: Even worse.
OT: Tony Boselli (T), Jeff Bostic (C), Jim Covert (T), ALAN FANECA (G), Jay Hilgenberg (C), Chris Hinton (G/T), Kent Hull (C), Joe Jacoby (T), Jon Jansen (T), Mike Kenn (T), Jim Lachey (T), Kevin Mawae (C/G), Mark May (G/T/C), Tom Nalen (C), Nate Newton (G), Orlando Pace* (T), Chris Samuels (T), Mark Schlereth (G), Steve Wisniewski (G).
Tony Boselli: What is it with all the members of the weirdly good '99 Jags being in the primaries this year? Anyway, Boselli was very good for only three years, and it wasn't a Dwight Stephenson type of thing where he was the best center of all time for the last four years of his career until it abruptly ended due to injury.
Jeff Bostic: Bostic is best known for his birthday being on the same day of the month as mine (but a different month). Other than that his career is completely unimpressive.
Jim Covert: For the record, his name isn't Jim, it's Jimbo. Okay, so it's James, but it's really Jimbo. But yeah, nothing impressive.
Alan Faneca: As much as I hate to admit it, Faneca was actually a really, really, really good player. That's what the career of a great offensive lineman looks like. Six First-Team All-Pros and nine Pro Bowls is basically as good as you can ask for, and should qualify Faneca as a borderline first-ballot inductee. This is a strong class so I can't say for sure whether he should make it, but he'll be close. Final 15.
Jay Hilgenberg: Hilgenberg's in the class of good-but-not-great that should never make the Hall but sometimes does.
Chris Hinton: So is Hinton.
Kent Hull: Hull is closer to the Boselli model of being really good for a couple years but not putting together enough of a career to qualify.
Joe Jacoby: Jacoby's been a semifinalist a number of times, but he's never made the finals for a reason: he's just not that good.
Jon Jansen: Really? He literally doesn't even have one Pro Bowl. Derek Anderson has better career accolades. Mine are comparable.
Mike Kenn: More like Mike Kenn't.
Jim Lachey: Yet another Boselli type, and yet another member of the '91 Redskins. Again, I don't see guys like this making the Hall, although final 25 runs aren't out of the question for all of them (but I have no idea which would make it).
Kevin Mawae: Finally another legitimate candidate! Well, kind of. Mawae was at least very good for a lot of years, but he's probably not HOF worthy. Final 25.
Mark May: One Pro Bowl. So in that respect he's a better candidate than Jansen, I guess.
Tom Nalen: Decent but nothing special. (This is a really long category.)
Nate Newton: Newton was really good during the Cowboys' dynasty but did little outside of that.
Orlando Pace: Perhaps only our third legitimate final-25 candidate O-lineman so far (and certainly our best bet for Canton), Pace is the third member of the trio of left tackles who dominated for a decade from 1999 to 2009, along with Walter Jones and Jonathan Ogden. Jones and Ogden were admitted to Canton first-ballot, but Pace was denied this privilege, probably because his success is viewed as at least partly due to the offensive dominance of the Greatest Show on Turf (i.e. those amazing Rams teams from '99-'01 that I keep talking about. See Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Marshall Faulk--not in this article, but I'm obsessed with him and talk about how great he is in a lot of other articles). This may be true, but what's also true is that Pace is inarguably a top five player of all time at a very talented position. He should have been first-ballot last year, and he certainly deserves to make it on his second ballot this year. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Chris Samuels: And back to mediocrity we go. Samuels was decent for a decade. That's it.
Mark Schlereth: Wow, they are just obsessed with nominating players from the '91 Redskins this year. Seriously, how many times have I mentioned this? And there's probably a few that I missed, because let's face it, I don't pay that close attention when it's obvious that a player's not a real contender. The '91 Skins are rated by Football Outsiders as the best football team they've ever measured in terms of DVOA, their assessment metric for team quality. (Of course they've only measured back to 1989, but their historical estimates have the Redskins at #1 by a wide enough margin over any pre-'89 teams that it's fair to put the Redskins first all-time.) That doesn't mean that every player from the roster deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Schlereth really, really doesn't.
Steve Wisniewski: I know how to spell this name because his nephew, Stefen Wisniewski, almost signed with the Seahawks this summer before running off to sign with the Jags for a pittance. It's a shame. Old Wisniewski was actually pretty good for a long time, but that won't be enough to make the Hall.
DL: Dexter Manley (DE), Charles Mann (DE), Leslie O'Neal (DE), Simeon Rice (DE), Fred Smerlas (NT), Bryant Young (DT).
Dexter Manley: Despite his name, appearance, and four-year sack total (from 1983-86) of 58, Manley just wasn't a HoF-level player. Oh, and he didn't actually play for Washington in '91; he left after the '89 season. That's probably the problem.
Charles Mann: What is it with all these Manley Menn? This one actually did play with Washington in '91 (and in fact played with Manley as well). I'm really hoping at some point a color commentator called them the Manley Menn, you know, like I just did. Anyway, Mann's not a HoF-level player either.
Leslie O'Neal: Leslie was actually a very good player, and is a borderline final-25 guy, but really shouldn't merit induction.
Simeon Rice: Rice was a really good player, not a Hall of Famer. That said, he's actually second in the guys-named-Rice power rankings, well behind Jerry but well ahead of Ray and Sidney. He's a borderline final-25 guy as well (ahead of Leslie).
Fred Smerlas: Smerlas sounds like a dirty word. But he's not that good a player.
Bryant Young: Young played forever and was good for a little while.
LB: Cornelius Bennett, Tedy Bruschi, KEITH BULLUCK, Kevin Greene* (also DE), Ken Harvey, Levon Kirkland, Clay Matthews, Willie McGinest (also DE), Karl Mecklenburg, Matt Millen, Sam Mills, Zach Thomas, MIKE VRABEL.
Cornelius Bennett: Mediocre.
Tedy Bruschi: Mediocre.
Keith Bulluck: Mediocre.
Kevin Greene: Actually a good player. I could definitely see him being a finalist again. Final 15.
Ken Harvey: Mediocre.
Levon Kirkland: Slightly better than mediocre, but still fundamentally... mediocre.
Clay Matthews: Not that Clay Matthews. Not the old Clay Matthews, either. The middle one. This one played 17 years at a decently high level. He doesn't seem like a good candidate, but sometimes iffy candidates make it too far in the process.
Willie McGinest: I feel like just saying mediocre over and over again is insufficient to distinguish these candidates, but honestly they just are. A player who was pretty good for three or four years and mediocre for ten years isn't good enough for a HOF induction.
Karl Mecklenburg: Mecklenburg is best known for being from Seattle and being drafted in the 12th round of the 1983 draft. I've actually been a big supporter of Mecklenburg for years, and I hope he gets the recognition he deserves this year. The whole 12th-round thing hurts that. The only guy who's ever benefitted from being drafted in a late round is Tom Brady. Final 15.
Matt Millen: Millen might be the single least impressive candidate in this class.
Sam Mills: I like Mills a lot. Final 25.
Zach Thomas: I have no idea why Thomas wasn't even a semi-finalist last year. He's a 7-time Pro Bowler, a 5-time First Team All-Pro, and deserves consideration as one of the best middle linebackers of all time, of which he receives virtually none. Thomas is another guy I've been advocating for years to no avail. I know he won't actually make the Hall this year, but I'm including him anyway because he deserves it. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Mike Vrabel: Vrabel's not actually that great a player. He's best known for his insane total of 10 touchdowns and 10 receptions on 14 targets, a touchdown-per-target percentage of 71%, which Rob Gronkowski (currently at 12%) is desperately trying to beat, and only JJ Watt (3 for 3 for 3 for 100%) has topped. Maybe. I don't know. There's no statistical category for TDs per target.
DB: Eric Allen (CB), Steve Atwater (S), Joey Browner (S), LeRoy Butler (S), Rodney Harrison (S), Ty Law (CB), Albert Lewis (CB), John Lynch* (S), LAWYER MILLOY (SS), DARREN SHARPER (FS), Shawn Springs (CB), Troy Vincent (CB/S), Everson Walls (CB), Darren Woodson (S).
Eric Allen: DB is another position where I don't know where the floor for induction is. I know Aeneas Williams snuck in last year, and Allen is definitely a notch below Aeneas, so I'm gonna say he won't get in. But he'll get close. Final 25.
Steve Atwater: I don't think Atwater was ever actually that good, but he's got a long list of accolades and that might be enough. Final 25.
Joey Browner: I also don't think Browner is THAT good. I also think he'll get close. Final 25.
LeRoy Butler: Is four very great years enough? It might be. I think it's enough to get Butler to the finals at least. Final 15.
Rodney Harrison: Finally, a player I actually saw play! Admittedly it was at the end of his career, but I still feel relatively more qualified to say he won't make Canton.
Ty Law: Ditto.
Albert Lewis: Ditto, except for the seeing him play thing.
John Lynch: Lynch was a finalist the past few years. I don't think he's good enough to sneak in any time soon. Final 25.
Lawyer Milloy: I don't think Milloy is that good. But it's too bad he played (most of his career) before How I Met Your Mother, so we couldn't say LAWYERED every time he laid out a big hit. Just saying.
Darren Sharper: Didn't he do something bad? Like rape? That might factor in here. But from a perspective of play, he's borderline final-25. I'll pass on this one.
Shawn Springs: I know Springs was a Seahawk, but he just doesn't belong anywhere near this conversation. The Seahawks have a dozen current players who are better candidates.
Troy Vincent: I don't think Vincent's that good? I don't know.
Everson Walls: Ditto.
Darren Woodson: Woodson was apparently a semi-finalist last year. I don't see him doing that again.
K/P: Morten Andersen* (K), Gary Anderson (K), JOHN CARNEY (K), Jason Elam (K), Sean Landeta (P), Nick Lowery (K).
Morten Andersen: Is 24 years of good kicking enough for a spot in Canton? I honestly have no idea. He was a finalist the last two years, so he might be one again. Who knows. Final 15.
Gary Anderson: Anderson's greatest achievement, his "perfect" '98 season, will forever be tainted by his wide-right kick in the NFC Championship of that year. Bummer.
John Carney: Is a kicker.
Jason Elam: Has been retired long enough to be eligible?? Weird.
Sean Landeta: Punters have never done well in HOF considerations, but maybe Ray Guy's admittance last year will give other punters some traction. I personally suspect that the next pure-punter inductee will be Shane Lechler, but it's possible Landeta will make the semis or the finals.
Nick Lowery: Kicker. How do I judge a kicker?
ST: ETHAN ALBRIGHT (LS), Brian Mitchell (KR/PR also RB), Steve Tasker (also WR).
Ethan Albright: I don't see any reason for a long snapper to ever make the Hall. Ever.
Brian Mitchell: Mitchell is the guy who used to hold some of the records that Devin Hester broke. There's not really much precedent for mixed kick-punt returners making Canton, but if there were to be, Mitchell would be the second choice all-time after Hester. Whether Mitchell makes it far in coming HOF considerations will spell volumes as to Hester's viability, but right now it's hard to say whether that will happen. Unfortunately I don't think Mitchell will set the precedent.
Steve Tasker: Tasker might be the best "special-teamer" of all time, but so far that's only gotten him as far as the semi-finals. I think he can get that far again, but I'm not sure he'll get further. Again, a lot of this is just based on precedent. Final 25.
Coaches: Don Coryell*, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy*, Tom Flores, Mike Holmgren, Jimmy Johnson*, Chuck Knox, Buddy Parker, Richie Petitbon, Dan Reeves, Pete Rodriguez, Lou Saban, Marty Schottenheimer, Clark Shaughnessy, Dick Vermeil.
Don Coryell: "Air Coryell" was a dominant offensive force for years (and continues to be a popular system), and Coryell's teams frequently ranked first in various offensive categories. His teams were excellent, averaging a 57% win rate. His lack of team success--no Super Bowl wins or appearances and only 5 division titles in 14 years--hurts him.
Bill Cowher: The Steelers are incredibly solid in their coaching. Since 1969, before the merger, the Steelers have had only three coaches: Mike Tomlin, Cowher, and Chuck Noll. Noll finished 45 games over .500, won four Super Bowls, and was inducted to the Hall of Fame only two years after his retirement. Cowher finished 59 games above .500 at 62.3%, although he only won one Super Bowl in two appearances. I think Cowher's history of success is sufficient to get him close to the Hall, although it's hard to see him make it this year. Final 25.
Tony Dungy: Dungy's 67% winrate (70 games above .500) and his Super Bowl win in '06 helps his case a lot. His accomplishment in basically creating the modern Tampa 2 defense, which led to the all-time great 2002 Tampa Bay Super Bowl-winning team, also helps (even though he wasn't with the team to reap the rewards of his schematic brilliance). What hurts him is his short, 13-year coaching career. But, again, 70 games above .500 speaks for itself (he's 9th all-time in this category, which is heavily volume-dependent. The only guy ahead of him with less than 20 seasons is John Madden, who's +71 with only 10. But Madden--no joke--is one of the greatest coaches of all time and is already a Hall of Famer). Final 15.
Tom Flores: Flores won a couple championships with the Raiders of Oakland and Los Angeles, then coached the Seahawks to arguably the worst offensive season of all time in 1992. That doesn't singlehandedly disqualify him, but I'm willing to use it as justification.
Mike Holmgren: Holmgren is an offensive genius. His Packers teams are some of the best ever, and his Seahawks teams, while not as consistent, peaked almost as high in 2005. He has an all-time .592 winning percentage with a Super Bowl win and two more appearances. I should also note his contributions to the championship '49ers teams of the late '80s and '90s. He was the quarterbacks coach from '86-'88--you know, when Joe Montana ascended to godhood and Steve Young got a second chance in San Francisco, where he eventually became, along with Montana, one of the five best quarterbacks of all time--and the offensive coordinator from '89-'91, which was the end of the Montana era and the start of the Young one. You wouldn't be out of line to call him, along with Bill Walsh, Montana, Young, and Rice, one of the five people most responsible for the '49ers dynasty, and especially the offensive side of it. You also wouldn't be out of line to call him one of the two most important factors in the Packers' quasi-dynasty of the '90s (along with Favre), and one of the two most important factors in the Seahawks' not-dynasty-but-amazing-offense of the mid-2000s (along with Walter Jones). In other words, Holmgren was instrumental in creating three of the ten or so greatest offenses since the merger* (counting the Montana Niners and the Young Niners as different teams, which we really should), plus the Seahawks, who were probably top 20-25. Basically, it's reasonable to say Holmgren is one of the two greatest offensive coaches in modern history, along with Walsh (although to be fair they both owe a lot of their success to one another). A guy like that HAS to be enshrined. But this year is so competitive that I could see Holmgren missing out on induction for a year or two (and it doesn't help that his best successes came decades ago). Final 15.
* I'm gonna say '07 Patriots, '13 Broncos, '98 Vikings, '99 Rams, '04 Colts, '94 49ers, '89 49ers, '96 Packers, '91 Redskins, '84 Dolphins. Not in that order. Then there's a few other teams circa 2010 and probably one or two in the '70s but they're not showing up in my memory or my research. Anyway, of those ten, Holmgren contributed in a meaningful way to three. No one else can say that--Peyton has two (Broncos and Colts), Moss has two (Patriots and Vikings), and arguably Walsh has two, but by '94 Seifert had been coach for six years and deserves a lot of the credit. I might be giving Holmgren a little too much credit for the '94 Niners, but I genuinely believe that without his direct contributions Young doesn't develop into the quarterback he became. Anyway, all those guys are first-ballot Hall of Famers regardless.
Jimmy Johnson: Jimmy Johnson is probably a better coach than you remember. He only coached for nine seasons, and one of his teams (the Dolphins, whom he coached for his last four years) never really did anything. The reason he's even in consideration here is because of his first five years, when he took the Cowboys from 1-15 (his first season) to 11-5, 13-3, and 12-4, winning Super Bowls in the latter two years. Johnson's Cowboys were completely unbeatable in the mid-'90s, so naturally Dallas owner-slash-wannabe-GM Jerry Jones forced Johnson out after the team's second straight Super Bowl win. The core Johnson had assembled was so good that the Cowboys won a third Super Bowl in 1995; since then they've won three playoff games total, and never more than one in a year. On a potentially related note, Jerry Jones's influence in the front office has been a constant since Johnson's departure. One can only imagine what Johnson might have done if given more time. Unfortunately, and by virtually no fault of his own, we have to imagine. With the exception of Gale Sayers, the Hall isn't based on potential, and even with two Super Bowls, potential is most of what Johnson has to offer. Now, maybe creating a team that went on to win three Super Bowls is enough to get Johnson inducted. It might happen eventually, and if it does I won't complain. But it won't and shouldn't happen this year. Final 25.
Chuck Knox: Knox was a very good coach (.558 overall and 39 games over .500 by the end of his 22-year career) for three different teams, but I think his lack of postseason success cripples him; he never so much as made a Super Bowl. What's more, the best teams he coached were mostly the Rams at the very start of his career; although he was very good for the Bills and Seahawks, he never reached that level again. That hurts his case.
Buddy Parker: I don't know what to do with Parker. I've never heard of him, he died 11 years before I was born, and his best teams were the Lions of the 1950's. Now, they were very good--the team had a .671 record in the six years he was there and won two NFL championships--but I really have no basis of comparison for that kind of success when it occurred around the time my parents were born. There were only 12 teams in the league for both championships, and in 1953 there was only one playoff game total. Was Parker that great a coach? It's possible. And the committee loves old guys, even when there are more qualified more modern candidates available. But I can't in good conscience promote Parker. For God's sake his Wikipedia picture is a portrait.
Richie Petitbon: Dick (we're calling him Dick because I won't call him either Richie or Petitbon) was the defensive coordinator of the '91 Redskins. Remember them? The team that has about 15 players up for nomination? I've probably mentioned this before, but that might be the best team of all time, so it makes sense that the guy responsible for about half of it should get nominated. For the record, the Redskins did have very good defenses under Dick. But I give a TON of credit to Joe Gibbs. I think he's the guy responsible for how amazing the Redskins were. I also think there's some meaning to be found in the fact that Dick head-coached the Redskins for one year (after Gibbs left), to a 4-12 record, and was immediately fired. There's probably a reason he was never hired by another team, despite coordinating one of the greatest teams ever for a decade. But the biggest reason I don't see Dick as a Hall of Famer is just that I think a coordinator has to be gamechanging in order to make Canton. Think Holmgren, who shaped offensive dynasties. Dick isn't there.
Dan Reeves: Reeves coached the Broncos to three Super Bowl losses in the late '80s (you know, the decade where the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls) and the Falcons to another one in '98 (that they shouldn't have even been in; the Vikings were a much better team). He was a very good coach. That's all.
Pete Rodriguez: I've said "I don't understand" before in this article, but this time I genuinely don't. Rodriguez's NFL career consists of a little under two decades of primarily special teams coordination. I don't believe any ST coach deserves Canton; offensive and defensive coordinators do WAY more and barely any of them deserve it. If there's some secret to Rodriguez that makes him a legitimate HoF candidate, I don't know what it is.
Lou Saban: Saban lost more games than he won.
Marty Schottenheimer: Schotty is best known for getting fired after a 14-2 season, which is basically a less egregious version of what happened to Jimmy Johnson. He's another really good coach who gets held back by a lack of postseason success. This is an argument I HATE when applied to players, especially considering that Schotty is #7 all time in wins above .500. (The guys above him, in order, are Don Shula, George Halas, Paul Brown, Bill Belichick, Curly Lambeau, and Tom Landry. Those are six of the eight greatest coaches of all time, along with Vince Lombardi (#12) and Bill Walsh (#29). Schotty beats out Madden, Dungy, Gibbs, Cowher, Holmgren, and literally every other coach in history. That means a lot.) But his career playoff record of 5-13 (.278) sticks out like a sore thumb among his peers, and the coach actually DOES bear a lot of responsibility for playoff failures. The only guy who's remotely close (as in below .400) is George Allen, who somehow managed to make it into Canton anyway--25 years after he retired. So maybe there's hope for Schotty. But not this year.
Clark Shaughnessy: Shaughnessy is a weird dude. He was only an NFL head coach for two years, in which he went a combined 14-7-3. He then was a fairly good DC for ten years. All this means he's almost certainly not a candidate for Canton. However. Shaughnessy is credited as the father of the T formation and the forward pass, which basically means he had more influence over the modern game than anyone else on this list, period. He also helped coach the Chicago Bears to their 73-0 win over Washington in the 1940 NFL Championship, which is the single most dominant game in NFL history. He was a tremendous innovator, so much so that he got himself fired from his only head coaching job for expanding the playbook too much. His skills were better served as a DC, where he innovated to counter things like the T formation and the forward pass (both of which, again, he helped pioneer) with stuff like the 5-3-3 defense and blitzes from players besides the MLB. Is the innovation sufficient to earn a spot in Canton? Maybe. But it's worth noting that a lot of his innovations came when he was a college coach, and that despite his cleverness, his defenses with Chicago weren't actually all that good (they usually hovered around top 10 but didn't dominate like you'd expect from a HOF candidate, especially a groundbreaking one).
Dick Vermeil: The final nominee! Vermeil wasn't that successful overall (.524 record, 1-1 in Super Bowls), but he did coach three different teams to a high level of performance. How much of that is due to Kurt Warner and the Chiefs O-line (on the Rams and Chiefs respectively, obviously) is up for debate. It's worth noting that after Vermeil walked away from the Rams following their '99 Super Bowl win, they didn't exactly get worse, but then again that could just mean that he put a strong system in place like Holmgren, Dungy, or Johnson. Of course only one of Vermeil's teams was ever at the level of the teams those three coaches produced, and honestly I'm not sure I can give that much credit to a coach for making an effective offense out of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Orlando Pace. That's easy mode. All those guys are far better candidates than Vermeil is.
Finale:
As I went through I made projections, player-by-player, for who I thought would make each stage of the induction process: Final 25, Final 15, and Inductee. After a little tidying of the list to hit my numbers precisely, here are my (slightly optimistic) projections for who will be a semi-finalist (i.e. final 25), finalist (15), and inductee (5). While this list does group candidates by what stage I think they'll reach, it doesn't rank candidates within their tier (e.g. Terrell Davis isn't a stronger candidate than Torry Holt even though he's in a higher spot).
Final 25:
1. Brett Favre - Inductee
2. Marvin Harrison - Inductee
3. Terrell Owens - Inductee
4. Orlando Pace - Inductee
5. Zach Thomas - Inductee
6. Kurt Warner - Finalist
7. Terrell Davis - Finalist
8. Torry Holt - Finalist
9. Alan Faneca - Finalist
10. Kevin Greene - Finalist
11. Karl Mecklenburg - Finalist
12. LeRoy Butler - Finalist
13. Morten Andersen - Finalist
14. Tony Dungy - Finalist
15. Mike Holmgren - Finalist
16. Jimmy Smith
17. Kevin Mawae
18. Sam Mills
19. Eric Allen
20. Steve Atwater
21. Joey Browner
22. John Lynch
23. Steve Tasker
24. Bill Cowher
25. Jimmy Johnson
I'll go through each positional group and talk about the interesting and relevant members of that group. (In other words, players whom I'm pretty sure will make the final 25 (and 15, and 5) like Brett Favre, will get more discussion than players who don't have a chance at making the first cut, like Vinny Testaverde.)
Players who were a finalist last year will have an asterisk (*) next to their name; players in their first year of eligibility will be in CAPS. (N.B. first-year eligible players are rarely enshrined and basically need to be in the conversation for GOAT at their position in order to make the cut.)
QB: Drew Bledsoe, BRETT FAVRE, Steve McNair, Phil Simms, Vinny Testaverde, Kurt Warner*.
Drew Bledsoe: There's an argument that some of the less original members of the football media and fandom make regarding which players should make the Hall of Fame. The argument is this: If you can't tell the story of the NFL without talking about a given player, then he should be a HoFer. This argument is stupid. I like to use three examples to disprove it. First, JaMarcus Russell. Russell went first overall in the awful QB draft class of 2007, made tens of million dollars while earning a reputation as one of the biggest busts in NFL history, and almost singlehandedly forced the CBA to set a hard rookie wage scale so that no team would ever fuck up this badly again. Second, David Tyree, whose "helmet catch" to win a huge upset in Super Bowl 42 is one of the most famous football plays of all time, but who did absolutely nothing else with his career. And third, Drew Bledsoe, who--it seems--existed only to pave the way for Tom Brady's takeover of the starter position and ascension into godhood. Bledsoe was a good player and honestly probably deserves more respect than he gets, but he's no more (well, only slightly more) a Hall of Famer than Russell or Tyree. (Okay, so maybe I'll write a lot for some players who don't have a chance at the first cut.)
Brett Favre: Favre occupies a unique position in the NFL mythology. He had one of the greatest starts to a career in NFL history, winning three consecutive MVPs in the mid-'90s ('95-'97) and winning a Super Bowl to boot in '96 (as the offensive leader of one of the greatest teams of all time, by the way). He was never quite that good again (unless you buy that his 2009 season was as great as it looked on paper), but over the next 14 years he established an uncontested reputation as the greatest ironman in NFL history, starting 321 consecutive games (the equivalent of 20 consecutive regular seasons) from 1992 to 2010. At the time of his retirement, Favre held basically every volume statistic and most of them weren't close, including the bad ones (interceptions). But sometime between his peak in the '90s and his resurgence in 2009, Favre went from being considered a notorious, unflappable gunslinger to a relatively inefficient volume quarterback, a relic from a bygone age. By the time he retired, despite his astonishing career achievements, very few people considered him a genuine contender for the GOAT quarterback conversation. But even so, it's very hard to make an argument against him being a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I happily include him in this class. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Steve McNair: McNair was a thrilling quarterback and his 2003 season was genuinely amazing. That's as much as I can say for him.
Phil Simms: Players with one or two Pro Bowls should never make the HoF. I don't understand why guys like Simms merit consideration.
Vinny Testaverde: Testaverde played for almost 20 years, so that's pretty cool. But he'll be a first-round cut.
Kurt Warner: Warner is another player with a completely unique career trajectory. He entered the NFL at 27 after a successful career working in a grocery store and rapidly achieved a comparable level of success as a two-time MVP and one-time Super Bowl champion (for the Rams; they beat Tennessee in a thriller in '99 and lost to New England in a thriller in '01), as well as the quarterback of several of the greatest offenses of all time from '99 to '01. Very few players have ever reached the kind of peak that Warner showed in those three years (which was almost categorically better statistically than Favre's three-MVP stretch, and no there wasn't a significant change in the passing game between 1995 and 2001), and most of those who have are locks for Canton. Most of them, however, didn't fall off the face of the earth for six years after their amazing stretch, which is exactly what Warner did (he really had five terrible years and one okay one). In 2008, he emerged again to put up another amazing season and lead another thrilling team (this time the Cardinals) to another heartbreaking loss (this time to the Steelers) in the '08 Super Bowl, then retired after one last decent season. That's not exactly the profile you expect from a future Hall of Fame QB, but you also can't deny a guy who's done what Warner has done admittance to Canton. I think. Final 15.
RB: Shaun Alexander, Ottis Anderson, Tiki Barber, Roger Craig, Stephen Davis, Terrell Davis*, Eddie George, Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, Daryl Johnston, Jamal Lewis, CLINTON PORTIS, Herschel Walker, Ricky Watters, BRIAN WESTBROOK.
Shaun Alexander: Shaun's pretty close to the ceiling for RBs who won't make the Hall of Fame. He had five good seasons, including one great one (in 2005) and one very good one ('04). Is that enough to make Canton? It can't be. It shouldn't be. But as will become evident in the coming entries, I really have no idea what the floor for RB inductees is. (By "floor" I mean the theoretical worst possible running back who would make Canton. Any RB better than him should make it and any RB worse should miss it. Of course it doesn't work like this in practice--Marvin Harrison isn't enshrined yet despite being better than most Hall of Fame wide receivers--but it's still a good way to think about the process.)
Ottis Anderson: I've literally never heard of this person, which is rare for me. It looks like he was pretty good for a few years from '79 into the early '80s, but he can't be close to Canton.
Tiki Barber: Tiki's notable for being the guy who laughs at the idea that RBs get worse as they get older. He was mediocre from the ages of 22-26, then abruptly got really good from 27-31, with five straight seasons of 1200 yards or more. He ended his career, from the ages of 29-31, with back-to-back-to-back seasons of 1518, 1860, and 1662 yards. What a guy. I don't see him ever making the Hall--he might sneak in eventually, but he's not in the top echelon of this class of RBs, let alone overall--but he's definitely a unique player.
Roger Craig: Craig somehow had a season of 1000 yards each rushing and receiving, which is fucking amazing, but beyond that I'm not sure why he's in consideration here. Again, though, I have no idea what the floor for inductees is or should be.
Stephen Davis: Here's the second guy I've never heard of. He had four very good seasons (1300+ yards) around the turn of the millennium, which seems like too little.
Terrell Davis: Finally a real contender. Well, not really; Davis was good for all of four seasons. Yes, one of those was his 1998 year where he ran for 2008 yards and 21 TDs on 5.1 YPC, which no one else has ever done; and yes, two of the other ones were 1750/15/4.7 and 1538/13/4.5, both of which are pretty great. I personally put that '98 season up as maybe the greatest running season ever, at least statistically speaking. I don't know whether that's enough for him to get inducted. He generally gets disrespected by the induction council (he retired in '01 but has only been in consideration once, last year), which makes me think his odds aren't great, but he could limp in like Ray Guy did (although their situations are vastly different). Final 15.
Eddie George: That mediocrity. Save it for the Hall of Very Good, champ.
Priest Holmes: Where is the floor?? Priest was very, very good for three years from '01 to '03. His claim to fame is basically being First-Team All-Pro in those three years, which is cool but ultimately insufficient (probably. Most guys with a lot of FTAPs eventually sneak in though). Oh yeah, and he's the guy who held the rushing TD record before Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson broke it in consecutive years.
Edgerrin James: I think James has a better shot than most of these guys. He gets slept on, but the dude has four 1500-yard seasons. In terms of number of 1500+ yd seasons, it goes Barry Sanders, then Edge, Eric Dickerson, and Walter Peyton, and then the field (which includes, by the way, Tiki Barber, Terrell Davis, and the upcoming Clinton Portis, all of whom have three). That's pretty impressive. I don't know that James was ever good enough, or that he was good enough for long enough, to make Canton, but again... I have no idea where the floor for induction is. I don't see James making it, though; at least not this year.
Daryl Johnston: Who? Do fullbacks make the Hall of Fame? If so, induct Mack Strong and Lorenzo Neal (in that order) first.
Jamal Lewis: Another entrant in the "I got 2000 yards; do I make the Hall?" category. This category is going to be pretty big; of the seven guys to break 2000, three are in Canton, two are borderline (Davis and Adrian Peterson), and two are slightly lower borderline (Lewis and the currently underrated Chris Johnson). I have NO idea which if any of the four will make it, but the latter two probably won't.
Clinton Portis: How does a guy run for 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs and not make the Pro Bowl? Ask Portis; he did it twice. I don't know what to do with a guy who had six very good seasons and a couple mediocre ones. He probably misses it. But again, this whole RB class (at least the best of it) is in this weird nebulous category where they're not actually all-time greats but they did some very impressive things, and I don't know how to choose between them.
Herschel Walker: Yeah, no. He got some good publicity this year, although I can't remember for what, which is probably why he's on this list, but he shouldn't factor in this year.
Ricky Watters: First-ballot Hall of Very Good inductee. (I've mentioned this facetious concept a few times; it should be obvious from the name what I mean by it. Sometimes these guys make the Hall, but they really shouldn't.)
Brian Westbrook: Westbrook used to be Marshall Faulk Very Lite back in the day. That's actually a really impressive title to have, but I don't think it's enough. Maybe my standards for inducting RBs are too high. But I don't want any TRASH in my HALL OF FAME can you DIG IT?
WR: Isaac Bruce, Gary Clark, Henry Ellard, Marvin Harrison*, Torry Holt, TERRELL OWENS, Sterling Sharpe, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith.
Isaac Bruce: Most people think that Bruce was the better of the Rams' two great receivers (the other one being Holt). I don't understand why people think this. It's obvious to me that Holt was better and Bruce got slightly better career statistics by limping out his last few years in mediocrity. That's not to say Bruce is a bad player; he was very good, and might someday sneak into Canton, in a very long time when the 15 or so WRs who will be ahead of him in the next 10 years have gotten in (this might take more than 10 years). Um.
Gary Clark: Wait, what? This guy has five seasons of 1000 yards and none of them were that great. His biggest claim to fame is outperforming 34-year-old Art Monk on the '91 Redskins (one of the greatest teams ever). He seems like a worse version of Monk, and I don't even think Monk should have made it. Maybe I'm spoiled in the WR category. But don't worry; I do know where the floor is in this category. It's higher than Clark.
Henry Ellard: Ellard's one of those guys who played forever and was very good but probably isn't Hall of Fame material. Again, these guys sometimes make the Hall of Fame. It happens. It probably won't happen this year.
Marvin Harrison: It is a travesty that Harrison didn't make the Hall on his first ballot last year. Harrison might very well be the third- or fourth-best wide receiver in NFL history. The fact that he played most of his career with Peyton Manning in no way invalidates his incredible performance from 1999 to 2006. After all, Jerry Rice played with Joe Montana and Steve Young; Randy Moss played with Tom Brady and Randle Cunningham; and Terrell Owens played with Young, Donovan McNabb, and Tony Romo. I have to hope that the committee will correct its mistake this year and induct Harrison. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Torry Holt: I know where the floor is for a WR to be inducted, and Holt is way above it. From 2000 on, the guy had seasons of 1600 yards receiving, 1300, 1300, 1600, 1300, 1300. That's six straight seasons of 1300 plus with two amazing ones. And only two of them were during Warner's great years. Holt, at least for me, was a borderline first-ballot guy, and honestly I'd probably induct him this year. That being said, the council is dumb and probably won't. My statistical analysis suggests that Holt is one of the five best receivers ever, along with Rice, Moss, Harrison (!), and (maybe? I forget) Owens. It's just unfortunate for him that he's (wrongly) considered fifth in that group and it's not likely the committee will induct three wide receivers this year. But they should. Final 15.
Terrell Owens: Owens has been considered a first-ballot inductee since his career ended. He's a guy whose peak was very high and lasted for a long time, but honestly in my opinion he was never really that great. He's going to make it mostly on account of his longevity and his career stats, and most fans and pundits consider him a top three wide receiver of all time, but I put a lot more value on peak and less value on touchdowns than most pundits do. Still, even if I think he should have to wait a year, the committee will almost certainly induct him right away. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Sterling Sharpe: Sharpe is the WR equivalent of one of those very good RBs who won't make the Hall. He had a couple very good seasons, but his career was really short and never really transcendent. While I don't know whether running backs with careers like that will have a chance at the Hall, wide receivers certainly don't.
Jimmy Smith: I don't actually know that much about Smith, besides the fact that he's not a quitter, but his numbers speak for themselves. His stats--besides touchdowns--compare favorably to Owens's, and that's saying something. But the lack of accolades (five Pro Bowls and no First-Team All-Pro selections) will hold him back. Final 25.
Rod Smith: Rod's basically Jimmy Lite, and since Jimmy's probably a borderline candidate, so Rod will miss it.
TE: Mark Bavaro, Jay Novacek.
Mark Bavaro: No. Bavaro was not that good a player.
Jay Novacek: Even worse.
OT: Tony Boselli (T), Jeff Bostic (C), Jim Covert (T), ALAN FANECA (G), Jay Hilgenberg (C), Chris Hinton (G/T), Kent Hull (C), Joe Jacoby (T), Jon Jansen (T), Mike Kenn (T), Jim Lachey (T), Kevin Mawae (C/G), Mark May (G/T/C), Tom Nalen (C), Nate Newton (G), Orlando Pace* (T), Chris Samuels (T), Mark Schlereth (G), Steve Wisniewski (G).
Tony Boselli: What is it with all the members of the weirdly good '99 Jags being in the primaries this year? Anyway, Boselli was very good for only three years, and it wasn't a Dwight Stephenson type of thing where he was the best center of all time for the last four years of his career until it abruptly ended due to injury.
Jeff Bostic: Bostic is best known for his birthday being on the same day of the month as mine (but a different month). Other than that his career is completely unimpressive.
Jim Covert: For the record, his name isn't Jim, it's Jimbo. Okay, so it's James, but it's really Jimbo. But yeah, nothing impressive.
Alan Faneca: As much as I hate to admit it, Faneca was actually a really, really, really good player. That's what the career of a great offensive lineman looks like. Six First-Team All-Pros and nine Pro Bowls is basically as good as you can ask for, and should qualify Faneca as a borderline first-ballot inductee. This is a strong class so I can't say for sure whether he should make it, but he'll be close. Final 15.
Jay Hilgenberg: Hilgenberg's in the class of good-but-not-great that should never make the Hall but sometimes does.
Chris Hinton: So is Hinton.
Kent Hull: Hull is closer to the Boselli model of being really good for a couple years but not putting together enough of a career to qualify.
Joe Jacoby: Jacoby's been a semifinalist a number of times, but he's never made the finals for a reason: he's just not that good.
Jon Jansen: Really? He literally doesn't even have one Pro Bowl. Derek Anderson has better career accolades. Mine are comparable.
Mike Kenn: More like Mike Kenn't.
Jim Lachey: Yet another Boselli type, and yet another member of the '91 Redskins. Again, I don't see guys like this making the Hall, although final 25 runs aren't out of the question for all of them (but I have no idea which would make it).
Kevin Mawae: Finally another legitimate candidate! Well, kind of. Mawae was at least very good for a lot of years, but he's probably not HOF worthy. Final 25.
Mark May: One Pro Bowl. So in that respect he's a better candidate than Jansen, I guess.
Tom Nalen: Decent but nothing special. (This is a really long category.)
Nate Newton: Newton was really good during the Cowboys' dynasty but did little outside of that.
Orlando Pace: Perhaps only our third legitimate final-25 candidate O-lineman so far (and certainly our best bet for Canton), Pace is the third member of the trio of left tackles who dominated for a decade from 1999 to 2009, along with Walter Jones and Jonathan Ogden. Jones and Ogden were admitted to Canton first-ballot, but Pace was denied this privilege, probably because his success is viewed as at least partly due to the offensive dominance of the Greatest Show on Turf (i.e. those amazing Rams teams from '99-'01 that I keep talking about. See Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Marshall Faulk--not in this article, but I'm obsessed with him and talk about how great he is in a lot of other articles). This may be true, but what's also true is that Pace is inarguably a top five player of all time at a very talented position. He should have been first-ballot last year, and he certainly deserves to make it on his second ballot this year. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Chris Samuels: And back to mediocrity we go. Samuels was decent for a decade. That's it.
Mark Schlereth: Wow, they are just obsessed with nominating players from the '91 Redskins this year. Seriously, how many times have I mentioned this? And there's probably a few that I missed, because let's face it, I don't pay that close attention when it's obvious that a player's not a real contender. The '91 Skins are rated by Football Outsiders as the best football team they've ever measured in terms of DVOA, their assessment metric for team quality. (Of course they've only measured back to 1989, but their historical estimates have the Redskins at #1 by a wide enough margin over any pre-'89 teams that it's fair to put the Redskins first all-time.) That doesn't mean that every player from the roster deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Schlereth really, really doesn't.
Steve Wisniewski: I know how to spell this name because his nephew, Stefen Wisniewski, almost signed with the Seahawks this summer before running off to sign with the Jags for a pittance. It's a shame. Old Wisniewski was actually pretty good for a long time, but that won't be enough to make the Hall.
DL: Dexter Manley (DE), Charles Mann (DE), Leslie O'Neal (DE), Simeon Rice (DE), Fred Smerlas (NT), Bryant Young (DT).
Dexter Manley: Despite his name, appearance, and four-year sack total (from 1983-86) of 58, Manley just wasn't a HoF-level player. Oh, and he didn't actually play for Washington in '91; he left after the '89 season. That's probably the problem.
Charles Mann: What is it with all these Manley Menn? This one actually did play with Washington in '91 (and in fact played with Manley as well). I'm really hoping at some point a color commentator called them the Manley Menn, you know, like I just did. Anyway, Mann's not a HoF-level player either.
Leslie O'Neal: Leslie was actually a very good player, and is a borderline final-25 guy, but really shouldn't merit induction.
Simeon Rice: Rice was a really good player, not a Hall of Famer. That said, he's actually second in the guys-named-Rice power rankings, well behind Jerry but well ahead of Ray and Sidney. He's a borderline final-25 guy as well (ahead of Leslie).
Fred Smerlas: Smerlas sounds like a dirty word. But he's not that good a player.
Bryant Young: Young played forever and was good for a little while.
LB: Cornelius Bennett, Tedy Bruschi, KEITH BULLUCK, Kevin Greene* (also DE), Ken Harvey, Levon Kirkland, Clay Matthews, Willie McGinest (also DE), Karl Mecklenburg, Matt Millen, Sam Mills, Zach Thomas, MIKE VRABEL.
Cornelius Bennett: Mediocre.
Tedy Bruschi: Mediocre.
Keith Bulluck: Mediocre.
Kevin Greene: Actually a good player. I could definitely see him being a finalist again. Final 15.
Ken Harvey: Mediocre.
Levon Kirkland: Slightly better than mediocre, but still fundamentally... mediocre.
Clay Matthews: Not that Clay Matthews. Not the old Clay Matthews, either. The middle one. This one played 17 years at a decently high level. He doesn't seem like a good candidate, but sometimes iffy candidates make it too far in the process.
Willie McGinest: I feel like just saying mediocre over and over again is insufficient to distinguish these candidates, but honestly they just are. A player who was pretty good for three or four years and mediocre for ten years isn't good enough for a HOF induction.
Karl Mecklenburg: Mecklenburg is best known for being from Seattle and being drafted in the 12th round of the 1983 draft. I've actually been a big supporter of Mecklenburg for years, and I hope he gets the recognition he deserves this year. The whole 12th-round thing hurts that. The only guy who's ever benefitted from being drafted in a late round is Tom Brady. Final 15.
Matt Millen: Millen might be the single least impressive candidate in this class.
Sam Mills: I like Mills a lot. Final 25.
Zach Thomas: I have no idea why Thomas wasn't even a semi-finalist last year. He's a 7-time Pro Bowler, a 5-time First Team All-Pro, and deserves consideration as one of the best middle linebackers of all time, of which he receives virtually none. Thomas is another guy I've been advocating for years to no avail. I know he won't actually make the Hall this year, but I'm including him anyway because he deserves it. Hall of Fame Inductee.
Mike Vrabel: Vrabel's not actually that great a player. He's best known for his insane total of 10 touchdowns and 10 receptions on 14 targets, a touchdown-per-target percentage of 71%, which Rob Gronkowski (currently at 12%) is desperately trying to beat, and only JJ Watt (3 for 3 for 3 for 100%) has topped. Maybe. I don't know. There's no statistical category for TDs per target.
DB: Eric Allen (CB), Steve Atwater (S), Joey Browner (S), LeRoy Butler (S), Rodney Harrison (S), Ty Law (CB), Albert Lewis (CB), John Lynch* (S), LAWYER MILLOY (SS), DARREN SHARPER (FS), Shawn Springs (CB), Troy Vincent (CB/S), Everson Walls (CB), Darren Woodson (S).
Eric Allen: DB is another position where I don't know where the floor for induction is. I know Aeneas Williams snuck in last year, and Allen is definitely a notch below Aeneas, so I'm gonna say he won't get in. But he'll get close. Final 25.
Steve Atwater: I don't think Atwater was ever actually that good, but he's got a long list of accolades and that might be enough. Final 25.
Joey Browner: I also don't think Browner is THAT good. I also think he'll get close. Final 25.
LeRoy Butler: Is four very great years enough? It might be. I think it's enough to get Butler to the finals at least. Final 15.
Rodney Harrison: Finally, a player I actually saw play! Admittedly it was at the end of his career, but I still feel relatively more qualified to say he won't make Canton.
Ty Law: Ditto.
Albert Lewis: Ditto, except for the seeing him play thing.
John Lynch: Lynch was a finalist the past few years. I don't think he's good enough to sneak in any time soon. Final 25.
Lawyer Milloy: I don't think Milloy is that good. But it's too bad he played (most of his career) before How I Met Your Mother, so we couldn't say LAWYERED every time he laid out a big hit. Just saying.
Darren Sharper: Didn't he do something bad? Like rape? That might factor in here. But from a perspective of play, he's borderline final-25. I'll pass on this one.
Shawn Springs: I know Springs was a Seahawk, but he just doesn't belong anywhere near this conversation. The Seahawks have a dozen current players who are better candidates.
Troy Vincent: I don't think Vincent's that good? I don't know.
Everson Walls: Ditto.
Darren Woodson: Woodson was apparently a semi-finalist last year. I don't see him doing that again.
K/P: Morten Andersen* (K), Gary Anderson (K), JOHN CARNEY (K), Jason Elam (K), Sean Landeta (P), Nick Lowery (K).
Morten Andersen: Is 24 years of good kicking enough for a spot in Canton? I honestly have no idea. He was a finalist the last two years, so he might be one again. Who knows. Final 15.
Gary Anderson: Anderson's greatest achievement, his "perfect" '98 season, will forever be tainted by his wide-right kick in the NFC Championship of that year. Bummer.
John Carney: Is a kicker.
Jason Elam: Has been retired long enough to be eligible?? Weird.
Sean Landeta: Punters have never done well in HOF considerations, but maybe Ray Guy's admittance last year will give other punters some traction. I personally suspect that the next pure-punter inductee will be Shane Lechler, but it's possible Landeta will make the semis or the finals.
Nick Lowery: Kicker. How do I judge a kicker?
ST: ETHAN ALBRIGHT (LS), Brian Mitchell (KR/PR also RB), Steve Tasker (also WR).
Ethan Albright: I don't see any reason for a long snapper to ever make the Hall. Ever.
Brian Mitchell: Mitchell is the guy who used to hold some of the records that Devin Hester broke. There's not really much precedent for mixed kick-punt returners making Canton, but if there were to be, Mitchell would be the second choice all-time after Hester. Whether Mitchell makes it far in coming HOF considerations will spell volumes as to Hester's viability, but right now it's hard to say whether that will happen. Unfortunately I don't think Mitchell will set the precedent.
Steve Tasker: Tasker might be the best "special-teamer" of all time, but so far that's only gotten him as far as the semi-finals. I think he can get that far again, but I'm not sure he'll get further. Again, a lot of this is just based on precedent. Final 25.
Coaches: Don Coryell*, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy*, Tom Flores, Mike Holmgren, Jimmy Johnson*, Chuck Knox, Buddy Parker, Richie Petitbon, Dan Reeves, Pete Rodriguez, Lou Saban, Marty Schottenheimer, Clark Shaughnessy, Dick Vermeil.
Don Coryell: "Air Coryell" was a dominant offensive force for years (and continues to be a popular system), and Coryell's teams frequently ranked first in various offensive categories. His teams were excellent, averaging a 57% win rate. His lack of team success--no Super Bowl wins or appearances and only 5 division titles in 14 years--hurts him.
Bill Cowher: The Steelers are incredibly solid in their coaching. Since 1969, before the merger, the Steelers have had only three coaches: Mike Tomlin, Cowher, and Chuck Noll. Noll finished 45 games over .500, won four Super Bowls, and was inducted to the Hall of Fame only two years after his retirement. Cowher finished 59 games above .500 at 62.3%, although he only won one Super Bowl in two appearances. I think Cowher's history of success is sufficient to get him close to the Hall, although it's hard to see him make it this year. Final 25.
Tony Dungy: Dungy's 67% winrate (70 games above .500) and his Super Bowl win in '06 helps his case a lot. His accomplishment in basically creating the modern Tampa 2 defense, which led to the all-time great 2002 Tampa Bay Super Bowl-winning team, also helps (even though he wasn't with the team to reap the rewards of his schematic brilliance). What hurts him is his short, 13-year coaching career. But, again, 70 games above .500 speaks for itself (he's 9th all-time in this category, which is heavily volume-dependent. The only guy ahead of him with less than 20 seasons is John Madden, who's +71 with only 10. But Madden--no joke--is one of the greatest coaches of all time and is already a Hall of Famer). Final 15.
Tom Flores: Flores won a couple championships with the Raiders of Oakland and Los Angeles, then coached the Seahawks to arguably the worst offensive season of all time in 1992. That doesn't singlehandedly disqualify him, but I'm willing to use it as justification.
Mike Holmgren: Holmgren is an offensive genius. His Packers teams are some of the best ever, and his Seahawks teams, while not as consistent, peaked almost as high in 2005. He has an all-time .592 winning percentage with a Super Bowl win and two more appearances. I should also note his contributions to the championship '49ers teams of the late '80s and '90s. He was the quarterbacks coach from '86-'88--you know, when Joe Montana ascended to godhood and Steve Young got a second chance in San Francisco, where he eventually became, along with Montana, one of the five best quarterbacks of all time--and the offensive coordinator from '89-'91, which was the end of the Montana era and the start of the Young one. You wouldn't be out of line to call him, along with Bill Walsh, Montana, Young, and Rice, one of the five people most responsible for the '49ers dynasty, and especially the offensive side of it. You also wouldn't be out of line to call him one of the two most important factors in the Packers' quasi-dynasty of the '90s (along with Favre), and one of the two most important factors in the Seahawks' not-dynasty-but-amazing-offense of the mid-2000s (along with Walter Jones). In other words, Holmgren was instrumental in creating three of the ten or so greatest offenses since the merger* (counting the Montana Niners and the Young Niners as different teams, which we really should), plus the Seahawks, who were probably top 20-25. Basically, it's reasonable to say Holmgren is one of the two greatest offensive coaches in modern history, along with Walsh (although to be fair they both owe a lot of their success to one another). A guy like that HAS to be enshrined. But this year is so competitive that I could see Holmgren missing out on induction for a year or two (and it doesn't help that his best successes came decades ago). Final 15.
* I'm gonna say '07 Patriots, '13 Broncos, '98 Vikings, '99 Rams, '04 Colts, '94 49ers, '89 49ers, '96 Packers, '91 Redskins, '84 Dolphins. Not in that order. Then there's a few other teams circa 2010 and probably one or two in the '70s but they're not showing up in my memory or my research. Anyway, of those ten, Holmgren contributed in a meaningful way to three. No one else can say that--Peyton has two (Broncos and Colts), Moss has two (Patriots and Vikings), and arguably Walsh has two, but by '94 Seifert had been coach for six years and deserves a lot of the credit. I might be giving Holmgren a little too much credit for the '94 Niners, but I genuinely believe that without his direct contributions Young doesn't develop into the quarterback he became. Anyway, all those guys are first-ballot Hall of Famers regardless.
Jimmy Johnson: Jimmy Johnson is probably a better coach than you remember. He only coached for nine seasons, and one of his teams (the Dolphins, whom he coached for his last four years) never really did anything. The reason he's even in consideration here is because of his first five years, when he took the Cowboys from 1-15 (his first season) to 11-5, 13-3, and 12-4, winning Super Bowls in the latter two years. Johnson's Cowboys were completely unbeatable in the mid-'90s, so naturally Dallas owner-slash-wannabe-GM Jerry Jones forced Johnson out after the team's second straight Super Bowl win. The core Johnson had assembled was so good that the Cowboys won a third Super Bowl in 1995; since then they've won three playoff games total, and never more than one in a year. On a potentially related note, Jerry Jones's influence in the front office has been a constant since Johnson's departure. One can only imagine what Johnson might have done if given more time. Unfortunately, and by virtually no fault of his own, we have to imagine. With the exception of Gale Sayers, the Hall isn't based on potential, and even with two Super Bowls, potential is most of what Johnson has to offer. Now, maybe creating a team that went on to win three Super Bowls is enough to get Johnson inducted. It might happen eventually, and if it does I won't complain. But it won't and shouldn't happen this year. Final 25.
Chuck Knox: Knox was a very good coach (.558 overall and 39 games over .500 by the end of his 22-year career) for three different teams, but I think his lack of postseason success cripples him; he never so much as made a Super Bowl. What's more, the best teams he coached were mostly the Rams at the very start of his career; although he was very good for the Bills and Seahawks, he never reached that level again. That hurts his case.
Buddy Parker: I don't know what to do with Parker. I've never heard of him, he died 11 years before I was born, and his best teams were the Lions of the 1950's. Now, they were very good--the team had a .671 record in the six years he was there and won two NFL championships--but I really have no basis of comparison for that kind of success when it occurred around the time my parents were born. There were only 12 teams in the league for both championships, and in 1953 there was only one playoff game total. Was Parker that great a coach? It's possible. And the committee loves old guys, even when there are more qualified more modern candidates available. But I can't in good conscience promote Parker. For God's sake his Wikipedia picture is a portrait.
Richie Petitbon: Dick (we're calling him Dick because I won't call him either Richie or Petitbon) was the defensive coordinator of the '91 Redskins. Remember them? The team that has about 15 players up for nomination? I've probably mentioned this before, but that might be the best team of all time, so it makes sense that the guy responsible for about half of it should get nominated. For the record, the Redskins did have very good defenses under Dick. But I give a TON of credit to Joe Gibbs. I think he's the guy responsible for how amazing the Redskins were. I also think there's some meaning to be found in the fact that Dick head-coached the Redskins for one year (after Gibbs left), to a 4-12 record, and was immediately fired. There's probably a reason he was never hired by another team, despite coordinating one of the greatest teams ever for a decade. But the biggest reason I don't see Dick as a Hall of Famer is just that I think a coordinator has to be gamechanging in order to make Canton. Think Holmgren, who shaped offensive dynasties. Dick isn't there.
Dan Reeves: Reeves coached the Broncos to three Super Bowl losses in the late '80s (you know, the decade where the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls) and the Falcons to another one in '98 (that they shouldn't have even been in; the Vikings were a much better team). He was a very good coach. That's all.
Pete Rodriguez: I've said "I don't understand" before in this article, but this time I genuinely don't. Rodriguez's NFL career consists of a little under two decades of primarily special teams coordination. I don't believe any ST coach deserves Canton; offensive and defensive coordinators do WAY more and barely any of them deserve it. If there's some secret to Rodriguez that makes him a legitimate HoF candidate, I don't know what it is.
Lou Saban: Saban lost more games than he won.
Marty Schottenheimer: Schotty is best known for getting fired after a 14-2 season, which is basically a less egregious version of what happened to Jimmy Johnson. He's another really good coach who gets held back by a lack of postseason success. This is an argument I HATE when applied to players, especially considering that Schotty is #7 all time in wins above .500. (The guys above him, in order, are Don Shula, George Halas, Paul Brown, Bill Belichick, Curly Lambeau, and Tom Landry. Those are six of the eight greatest coaches of all time, along with Vince Lombardi (#12) and Bill Walsh (#29). Schotty beats out Madden, Dungy, Gibbs, Cowher, Holmgren, and literally every other coach in history. That means a lot.) But his career playoff record of 5-13 (.278) sticks out like a sore thumb among his peers, and the coach actually DOES bear a lot of responsibility for playoff failures. The only guy who's remotely close (as in below .400) is George Allen, who somehow managed to make it into Canton anyway--25 years after he retired. So maybe there's hope for Schotty. But not this year.
Clark Shaughnessy: Shaughnessy is a weird dude. He was only an NFL head coach for two years, in which he went a combined 14-7-3. He then was a fairly good DC for ten years. All this means he's almost certainly not a candidate for Canton. However. Shaughnessy is credited as the father of the T formation and the forward pass, which basically means he had more influence over the modern game than anyone else on this list, period. He also helped coach the Chicago Bears to their 73-0 win over Washington in the 1940 NFL Championship, which is the single most dominant game in NFL history. He was a tremendous innovator, so much so that he got himself fired from his only head coaching job for expanding the playbook too much. His skills were better served as a DC, where he innovated to counter things like the T formation and the forward pass (both of which, again, he helped pioneer) with stuff like the 5-3-3 defense and blitzes from players besides the MLB. Is the innovation sufficient to earn a spot in Canton? Maybe. But it's worth noting that a lot of his innovations came when he was a college coach, and that despite his cleverness, his defenses with Chicago weren't actually all that good (they usually hovered around top 10 but didn't dominate like you'd expect from a HOF candidate, especially a groundbreaking one).
Dick Vermeil: The final nominee! Vermeil wasn't that successful overall (.524 record, 1-1 in Super Bowls), but he did coach three different teams to a high level of performance. How much of that is due to Kurt Warner and the Chiefs O-line (on the Rams and Chiefs respectively, obviously) is up for debate. It's worth noting that after Vermeil walked away from the Rams following their '99 Super Bowl win, they didn't exactly get worse, but then again that could just mean that he put a strong system in place like Holmgren, Dungy, or Johnson. Of course only one of Vermeil's teams was ever at the level of the teams those three coaches produced, and honestly I'm not sure I can give that much credit to a coach for making an effective offense out of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Orlando Pace. That's easy mode. All those guys are far better candidates than Vermeil is.
Finale:
As I went through I made projections, player-by-player, for who I thought would make each stage of the induction process: Final 25, Final 15, and Inductee. After a little tidying of the list to hit my numbers precisely, here are my (slightly optimistic) projections for who will be a semi-finalist (i.e. final 25), finalist (15), and inductee (5). While this list does group candidates by what stage I think they'll reach, it doesn't rank candidates within their tier (e.g. Terrell Davis isn't a stronger candidate than Torry Holt even though he's in a higher spot).
Final 25:
1. Brett Favre - Inductee
2. Marvin Harrison - Inductee
3. Terrell Owens - Inductee
4. Orlando Pace - Inductee
5. Zach Thomas - Inductee
6. Kurt Warner - Finalist
7. Terrell Davis - Finalist
8. Torry Holt - Finalist
9. Alan Faneca - Finalist
10. Kevin Greene - Finalist
11. Karl Mecklenburg - Finalist
12. LeRoy Butler - Finalist
13. Morten Andersen - Finalist
14. Tony Dungy - Finalist
15. Mike Holmgren - Finalist
16. Jimmy Smith
17. Kevin Mawae
18. Sam Mills
19. Eric Allen
20. Steve Atwater
21. Joey Browner
22. John Lynch
23. Steve Tasker
24. Bill Cowher
25. Jimmy Johnson
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
Fantasy Football Love and Hate: The I'm Better Than Matthew Berry Edition
If you play fantasy football you probably know Matthew Berry, the fantasy football "expert" (which isn't an extant career because fantasy football is 30% pattern recognition and 70% luck). Every year he publishes an incredibly long column where he starts with a rambling personal anecdote, complains about the length less than halfway through, and gives a ton of bad fantasy football advice. For instance, this year Berry loves (at RB alone):
Adrian Peterson, who missed all of last season and is over thirty, as his #1 overall pick.
Jeremy Hill, who broke 10 fantasy points seven times last season AND is splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, a very competent running back, who also broke 10 fantasy points seven times last season. You know what this reminds me of? Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. You know the single worst, kicking-yourself-all-season, how-could-you-not-get-this-yet draft pick you could make from 2010 to 2014? Either (or both) of Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams.
Frank Gore, who is 32, leaving the only system he's ever played in, and joining the single pass-heaviest team in the NFL. (Admittedly the Colts are somehow only the 16th run-lightest team in the NFL, because they just run a lot of plays. But Gore's going to lose a lot of carries.) Add to that the fact that the Colts' last half-decent fantasy running back was Joseph freaking Addai (I'm not even joking) and their last good one was Edgerrin James, and you've got a recipe for a fantasy dud. But Matthew Berry loves him.
For these reasons, among many others, I'm better at fantasy football projections than Matthew Berry. So here's my Love/Hate for the 2015 season. Loves and hates are relative to draft position, so even if I hate Adrian Peterson I'd still take him in the first round, and just because I love Justin Forsett doesn't mean I'll take him in the second when he'll be there in the late third. I'll go through by round to give you a better idea of how I feel about players relative to their ADPs.
2015 LOVES:
Marshawn Lynch, RB, ADP 5.4. Lynch is an enigma. He doesn't run the ball that much, he plays behind a terrible line, and he's taken a beating his whole career. Yet somehow he's completely unmatched when it comes to breaking tackles and bowling over defenders in the open field. He's fast, he's powerful (strongest legs in the league), and he's smart, by which I mean he limits himself to relatively few carries but makes those count. Lynch may give you some sub-10-point games, but he'll also end the season as a top 5 back. On Saturday, he'd have been the only back I'd make that promise for. Since Jordy Nelson tore his ACL, I'll extend that to the Eddie Lacy. But I still like Lynch better. The only thing that can stop him is injury, but--you ready for this?--Lynch has never played fewer than 13 games in a season, and not fewer than 15 since 2009. Since joining the Seahawks, he's been the gold standard for fantasy consistency: 1200+ yards and 11+ touchdowns every season. Know who else has come close to that? No one. Seriously. It's not even close. You want to be the guy who convinces yourself that Marshawn's due for a collapse? Be my guest. Just remember: he's younger (more than a year), more consistent, and has fewer career carries than Adrian Peterson. He's my favorite back this year.
Calvin Johnson, WR, ADP 18.0. I don't get it. Since 2008, Calvin has averaged 1378 yards and 10 TDs, including his injured season last year. Last year at this time, anyone would have called him the clear top WR in the game. Then he has one injured season, still finishes with over 1000 yards and 8 TDs, and suddenly he's a second-or-third round pick? Now people are taking Antonio Brown, who has two seasons ever better than Calvin's "Injury Season," in the first, on Calvin's old throne. Are we really so quick to forget the most talented wideout we've seen since Randy Moss? Calvin's the best receiver in the league, and that includes Gronkowski (who I've been calling the best TE I've ever seen since 2011). Against the field, I like Calvin to finish as the #1 WR better than anyone else this year. Golden Tate won't steal many looks from him (Stafford is the kind of beneficial bad where he forcefeeds his best available receiver, which is why Tate looked so good when Calvin was out, and why a healthy Calvin will return to his former volume). Take Calvin in the early second if you can and be happy with your pick.
Randall Cobb, WR, ADP 22.8. Yes, he was the #7 fantasy wideout last year. Yes, he's going 8th among receivers this year. Yes, Nelson's injury doesn't mean he'll pick up that many more targets, because he's a slot guy. But even before Jordy's injury I liked Cobb (and drafted him in two of my leagues), not necessarily because I expect him to massively outplay his ADP and finish top-five (although he might, and Jordy's injury WILL give him more targets), but because I think he's a hard lock to finish top ten this year and there are very few players that's true for. It was true for Nelson; it's true for Demaryius; it's true for Dez; and anyone else there's a chance they miss it. In fantasy football, a player who's virtually guaranteed to be elite at his position is a unicorn, and I think Cobb is that. Barring a catastrophic injury to him or to Rodgers, he's a strong choice in the late second or early third. (Of course now that Nelson is out Cobb's ADP might skyrocket to the point where he's overrated, in which case you probably don't want him. But whatever.)
Peyton Manning, QB, ADP 26.5. He's Peyton Manning. He doesn't have bad seasons. So he's 39. So what? He hasn't had a strong arm this decade, he hasn't had a legit great receiver since Harrison (watch what Demaryius does when he leaves), and he hasn't been "mobile" since... maybe ever. You really think that's going to stop him? Nothing stops him. He's the Terminator, except doughy and with a really really fast release.
Russell Wilson, QB, ADP 26.6. Maybe. I'm actually not 100% sold on this love. I mean, I DO love Russell Wilson, unquestionably. But a lot of his fantasy value (about 94 of his 312 fantasy points, depending on your scoring system) came from his running, and QB running gainz are notoriously inconsistent. Then again, Wilson has topped 489 rushing yards each of his three seasons, and he scored at least 4 TDs in two out of three, which makes me suspect his one-TD '13 effort was anomalously low. Add to that Jimmy Graham, who's by far the best red-zone threat Wilson has ever played with (in much the same way that the sun is by far the brightest star in the daytime sky), and I could easily see Wilson's numbers staying as good as they were last year or even improving. Does that necessarily mean I like him as a second round pick? No. Because I don't take QBs in the second. But I could easily see him and Peyton finishing as the top two (or two of the top three) fantasy QBs this year, and I have a hard time seeing either finishing lower than fourth. Considering how early Rodgers and Luck are going (I've seen them both go in the first on more than one occasion), I think that qualifies Wilson as a Love.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, ADP 32.7. Remember what I said about Peyton two paragraphs ago? That's all still true. Sanders is one of the two competent receivers on the Broncos (their reserve wideouts are Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer, whose best receiving seasons total 432 yards and 23 yards, respectively), depending on how much you like Owen Daniels. So either Denver is going to transition into a run-heavy offense and phase out Peyton (yeah right), or Sanders is going to have a great fantasy season. Pick one.
Justin Forsett, RB, ADP 35.0. Forsett used to be a backup for the Seahawks. None of us saw this coming. But it came, and last year Forsett was a top ten running back. He's 29, but he has the least wear on his legs of basically any 29-year-old running back ever, and his competition at the running back position consists of Lorenzo Taliaferro, Javorius Allen, and Fitzgerald Toussaint. Those don't even sound like real names. Those sound like names a 12-year-old Francophile would invent if he didn't have any other running backs on the roster but wanted to pretend he did. Anyway, Forsett is going to get a lot of carries this season, because the alternative is letting Joe Flaccastrophe throw it or running it with one of those imaginary backs. How many RBs out there have NO competition and are in a position this good? I try to pick Forsett as my #2 back whenever I can, and in a pinch (like you were trigger happy and snatched Luck in the first, then went Demaryius-Cobb in the second and third) he'll probably do okay as a #1 RB.
Andre Johnson, WR, ADP 55.6. I've always loved Andre Johnson. One of my favorite stats is that his three 1500-yard receiving campaigns is tied with Marvin Harrison for second-most behind Rice, and his four 1400-yard seasons is again tied for second, behind Rice, with Harrison, Randy Moss, and Larry Fitzgerald. (And just ahead of Calvin, who's not 30 yet. Just saying.) And he did this with almost no QB help; the best passer he ever had was an inconsistent Matt Schaub, who ranged from very good (2009) to mediocre. At 31, he almost broke 1600 yards. At 32, he caught 1400 from Matt Schaub and Case Keenum splitting starts. At 33, last year, he still topped 900 mostly from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now he's playing with Andrew Luck in a pass-happy offense that will give him the most red-zone targets he's ever gotten in his career. A career high in touchdowns is very possible, as is his record-tying fourth 1500-yard season. I don't actually expect either of those to happen (although for the record they do boost Luck's fantasy prospects), but the fact that they're possible (and would make Johnson probably the best receiver this year) makes Johnson a steal in the early-mid rounds. I mean, assuming you're not scared that he's 34. (For the record, Jerry Rice's best season came at 33, and he caught for 1211 yards and 7 TDs at 40, which is another of my favorite stats.)
Jeremy Maclin, WR, ADP 64.9. Maclin's 27, in the prime of his career, and last year he finished top-10 in WR scoring. This year he's going in the 7th round, as the 26th receiver off the board. That seems excessive. For a guy who caught 1300 yards and 10 TDs last year from the not-so-elite combination of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez, that seems excessive. Yes, he's switching to the least successful passing-to-WRs team, in Kansas City. Yes, Alex Smith isn't the best QB in the league. But maybe the reason KC was so unsuccessful throwing to WRs last year is because their best WRs were Dwyane Bowe and Literally No One, by which I mean Albert Wilson, whom you've never heard of for a reason. Maclin is a massive upgrade and, guess what, he's going to catch for a touchdown this year. Probably multiple. Probably quite a few. He's a very good receiver. Show some respect.
Tom Brady, QB, ADP 78.4. Brady's going to miss a few weeks, probably four. But when he comes back, he's going to be a very good fantasy quarterback. Don't bank on Reggie Wayne being a stud, because he's 36 and that actually is pretty old and the Patriots have a history of signing free agents who do nothing. But Brady has a history of being an elite quarterback while throwing to mediocre receivers (does anyone actually believe that Julian Edelman is a good football player? Follow-up question: Really?).
Arian Foster, RB, ADP 94.3. You might be able to get him later than this. Foster is injured and no one knows when he'll be back. But it will be before the fantasy playoffs and when he plays he'll be elite (he was the #5 running back last year and when healthy he's consistently very good). If you're in a league with a lot of bench spots or a lot of teams and you want to spend a flier on a guy who could win you your championship if you can make the playoffs, Foster's a decent choice. If you're going to get impatient and cut him week 7, draft someone else.
Darren McFadden, RB, ADP 110.1. Don't tell. But I sneakily like McFadden as a Sleeping Beauty-level sleeper. Joseph Randle, his competition at RB, isn't actually good, and his O-line (Tyron Smith, Ronald Leary, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Doug Free, and somehow La'el Collins off the bench) is legendarily good. Seriously, I can't remember the last time I saw an OL that was this solid across the board. (For reference, the '05 Seahawks were all-time great at LT and LG, but at C, RG, and RT we didn't have the kind of dominance this Dallas team does.) If anyone can make Run-DMC look like a real running back, it's this line, and it wouldn't exactly be the first time we've seen someone come out of Oakland and transform into a better player.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, ADP 119.5. Yeah, we're into the part of the draft where you're throwing your picks at a dartboard blindfolded and hoping to get lucky. Bridgewater probably won't be an elite QB this year, but he's talented, has okay talent around him, and might be able to throw a ton of touchdowns deep to Mike Wallace. We're talking backup quarterback potential here, but the hype tastes so good.
Antonio Gates, TE, ADP 124.9. Gates is an extremely low-risk, high-reward TE prospect this year. You'll be able to get him late, and if he plays well, he could easily eclipse most starters at the position. That's a big if, but everyone in the 13th round is.
Coby Fleener, TE, ADP 132.2. I don't care what anyone thinks. Fleener is going to do stuff this year. I'm grabbing him as a backup TE in a lot of leagues.
2015 HATES:
Adrian Peterson, RB, ADP 3.3. We covered this in the intro, but in case you forgot: Peterson missed all of last year after getting suspended for beating his young son; he's 30 years old with a lot of miles on him; and he's playing with a quarterback in Bridgewater who might run the offense well enough to necessitate a drop in Peterson's usage. I just really, really hate drafting a guy in the early first round who missed a year, even if it's not to injury. Yeah, he did this before and came back to break 2000 yards. That doesn't mean he's going to do it again. Actually, let's say that more strongly: He will not do that again. Peterson has high elite upside, but he also has more downside than any other RB you'd take in the top five picks (I like Bell, Lacy, Charles, Lynch, and even Murray more than Peterson this year). There's no reason to gamble like this when you have this good a pick.
Antonio Brown, WR, ADP 8.1. I just don't like taking receivers in the first round. I'm old-school like that. Yes, Brown is great and has fantastic upside, but we have to look at the little things, like draft order. If you take Brown 8th in a 10-man league, you're looking at a running back like C.J. Anderson or LeSean McCoy as your #1. Which is fine, maybe. But if you take DeMarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch 8th, you can pick up a guy like Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the second, who I like just as much as Brown this year. (Or Calvin! Just saying.) So it comes down to whether you'd rather have Brown and Anderson or Murray and Thomas, and for me that's a really easy choice. Speaking of which...
C.J. Anderson, RB, ADP 11.6. Anderson had about 850 yards last season. I don't care how much you like Kubiak's zone-blocking system; I don't care how great he was in the last eight games of the season; I don't care how sold you are on Denver's offense. He had less than 900 yards and he's going as a #1 RB. He's also playing in a Peyton Manning offense--remember that stat about the last time Indy had an elite fantasy running back? Yeah. Add to that the fact that Anderson's competing with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, both of whom are actually competent backs, and Anderson looks less and less appealing. The addition of Evan Mathis makes Anderson a little more palatable, but not when compared to other guys at his ADP. If this is your first RB pick, get Forte or Murray and snag one of Morris or Forsett in the third or fourth. I like all those guys more than Anderson.
LeSean McCoy, RB, ADP 14.8. DeMarco Murray switched from one team with a great run-blocking line to another team with a great run-blocking line. I think he's going to do fine. McCoy, on the other hand, switched from a team with a great run-blocking line to Buffalo, home of the razorcakes. Buffalo is not a great place to be a fantasy running back. C.J. Spiller had a great year there in 2012; Fred Jackson was pretty good in 2009; and Marshawn had some good years in '07 and '08, but you can never expect the kind of success McCoy saw in Philly. Someone's going to gamble on McCoy and it shouldn't be you.
Jeremy Hill, RB, ADP 18.5. Hill's another guy I covered in the introduction. I see him splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, who's somehow getting forgotten in all the hype, along with the sad fantasy fact that if you're a coach, you'd much rather split carries between your two good backs than have one of them take 95%.
Mark Ingram, RB, ADP 28.4. There are three big rules when it comes to drafting fantasy RBs. Don't draft running backs who play in high-passing-volume offenses; don't draft running backs who are part of a talented committee; and never, ever draft a running back for a team whose last 1000-yard back was Deuce McAllister in 2006. Guess which lucky back all three of these rules apply to? Ingram's playing with Drew Brees, who's a master of the "instead of running it let's just throw a nice short pattern to a receiver you've never heard of" school of play. He's sharing carries with Khiry Robinson, Tim Hightower, and oh yeah CJ Spiller. And that Deuce statistic is real. Ingram might be the worst pick in this year's draft.
Jimmy Graham, TE, ADP 29.0. There aren't three big rules for drafting fantasy TEs, but if there were one of them would definitely be not to take a TE who just switched from the aforementioned heavy-passing offense to one of the heaviest rushing offenses in the league. Graham is a great player, and he'll get a ton of looks in the red zone with the Seahawks. But he's also gotten targeted 125-150 times in each of the last four seasons. Wilson's only going to throw the ball around 450-500 times this season, and he won't throw a third of his targets to Graham. Meanwhile Brees threw at least 650 passes every season of Graham's career. If Graham can repeat last year's not-that-inspiring performance, it'll be a miracle. Don't expect anything like his 2011 or 2013 dominance.
Carlos Hyde, RB, ADP 39.0. Oh yeah, I forgot another rule of running backs. No matter how consistent and great his predecessor was, don't ever expect a back whose career rushing total is 333 yards and 4 TDs to step up and break 1100 yards and 10 TDs. Which is what ESPN's projections have Hyde doing. Especially with all the talent evaporating from San Francisco like so much fog, Hyde is absolutely NOT a great bet to break out. I understand that RB talent is limited in the middle rounds (and the late rounds; really, try to get two RBs by the time Forsett and Morris go), but just realize that taking Hyde is a HUGE gamble.
Frank Gore, RB, ADP 40.3. I already explained why I don't like Gore in the intro. He's a great player (historically) and a first-ballot entrant to the Hall of Very Good, but don't expect starting-level performance from him, even as a flex pick.
Seahawks D/ST, ADP 61.4. No. Don't ever take a D/ST this early. Just don't. The optimal strategy is streaming D/STs, but even if you don't do that, the difference in scoring between the top fantasy D/ST last year (which WASN'T the Seahawks, by the way; they finished third. #1 was the Bills) and the 10th (the worst D/ST you could reasonably expect to start in a 10-team league) was 48 points last year. That's three points per week. The marginal value of a player you take in the early 7th round vs. a player you take in the late 8th round really ought to be more than three points. (If you're taking a D/ST in the 16th round, like you should be, then the marginal value between your 7th-round pick and your 16th-rounder should be WAY bigger than three points.) But more importantly, the breakout potential you get by picking two players in those two slots rather than one and a D/ST is huge. No one's ever won their league by drafting a really good D/ST in the seventh round. But (virtually) everyone who's ever won their league drafted someone good in the middle rounds who broke out.
Joique Bell, RB, ADP 62.4. You know the drill by now. Pass-happy team, RBBC (running back by committee). Last time Detroit produced a 1000-yard back was Reggie Bush in 2013; prior to that it was Kevin Jones in 2004. Bell is injured which makes things a little more interesting, but "interesting" is not something you want to gamble on.
C.J. Spiller, RB, ADP 73.2. See Ingram, Mark. Or actually Mark Ingram since this list isn't sorted by last name. Spiller's a better pick thank Ingram, but only because it's a lot easier to recoup from blowing an 8th rounder than a 3rd.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, ADP 83.8. See Joique Bell. This is the guy who's going to share carries with him. Sharing carries only very rarely leads to fantasy success for both share-carriers. In this case, it won't.
Russell Wilson, QB, ADP 26.6. Maybe. I'm actually not 100% sold on this love. I mean, I DO love Russell Wilson, unquestionably. But a lot of his fantasy value (about 94 of his 312 fantasy points, depending on your scoring system) came from his running, and QB running gainz are notoriously inconsistent. Then again, Wilson has topped 489 rushing yards each of his three seasons, and he scored at least 4 TDs in two out of three, which makes me suspect his one-TD '13 effort was anomalously low. Add to that Jimmy Graham, who's by far the best red-zone threat Wilson has ever played with (in much the same way that the sun is by far the brightest star in the daytime sky), and I could easily see Wilson's numbers staying as good as they were last year or even improving. Does that necessarily mean I like him as a second round pick? No. Because I don't take QBs in the second. But I could easily see him and Peyton finishing as the top two (or two of the top three) fantasy QBs this year, and I have a hard time seeing either finishing lower than fourth. Considering how early Rodgers and Luck are going (I've seen them both go in the first on more than one occasion), I think that qualifies Wilson as a Love.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, ADP 32.7. Remember what I said about Peyton two paragraphs ago? That's all still true. Sanders is one of the two competent receivers on the Broncos (their reserve wideouts are Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer, whose best receiving seasons total 432 yards and 23 yards, respectively), depending on how much you like Owen Daniels. So either Denver is going to transition into a run-heavy offense and phase out Peyton (yeah right), or Sanders is going to have a great fantasy season. Pick one.
Justin Forsett, RB, ADP 35.0. Forsett used to be a backup for the Seahawks. None of us saw this coming. But it came, and last year Forsett was a top ten running back. He's 29, but he has the least wear on his legs of basically any 29-year-old running back ever, and his competition at the running back position consists of Lorenzo Taliaferro, Javorius Allen, and Fitzgerald Toussaint. Those don't even sound like real names. Those sound like names a 12-year-old Francophile would invent if he didn't have any other running backs on the roster but wanted to pretend he did. Anyway, Forsett is going to get a lot of carries this season, because the alternative is letting Joe Flaccastrophe throw it or running it with one of those imaginary backs. How many RBs out there have NO competition and are in a position this good? I try to pick Forsett as my #2 back whenever I can, and in a pinch (like you were trigger happy and snatched Luck in the first, then went Demaryius-Cobb in the second and third) he'll probably do okay as a #1 RB.
Andre Johnson, WR, ADP 55.6. I've always loved Andre Johnson. One of my favorite stats is that his three 1500-yard receiving campaigns is tied with Marvin Harrison for second-most behind Rice, and his four 1400-yard seasons is again tied for second, behind Rice, with Harrison, Randy Moss, and Larry Fitzgerald. (And just ahead of Calvin, who's not 30 yet. Just saying.) And he did this with almost no QB help; the best passer he ever had was an inconsistent Matt Schaub, who ranged from very good (2009) to mediocre. At 31, he almost broke 1600 yards. At 32, he caught 1400 from Matt Schaub and Case Keenum splitting starts. At 33, last year, he still topped 900 mostly from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now he's playing with Andrew Luck in a pass-happy offense that will give him the most red-zone targets he's ever gotten in his career. A career high in touchdowns is very possible, as is his record-tying fourth 1500-yard season. I don't actually expect either of those to happen (although for the record they do boost Luck's fantasy prospects), but the fact that they're possible (and would make Johnson probably the best receiver this year) makes Johnson a steal in the early-mid rounds. I mean, assuming you're not scared that he's 34. (For the record, Jerry Rice's best season came at 33, and he caught for 1211 yards and 7 TDs at 40, which is another of my favorite stats.)
Jeremy Maclin, WR, ADP 64.9. Maclin's 27, in the prime of his career, and last year he finished top-10 in WR scoring. This year he's going in the 7th round, as the 26th receiver off the board. That seems excessive. For a guy who caught 1300 yards and 10 TDs last year from the not-so-elite combination of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez, that seems excessive. Yes, he's switching to the least successful passing-to-WRs team, in Kansas City. Yes, Alex Smith isn't the best QB in the league. But maybe the reason KC was so unsuccessful throwing to WRs last year is because their best WRs were Dwyane Bowe and Literally No One, by which I mean Albert Wilson, whom you've never heard of for a reason. Maclin is a massive upgrade and, guess what, he's going to catch for a touchdown this year. Probably multiple. Probably quite a few. He's a very good receiver. Show some respect.
Tom Brady, QB, ADP 78.4. Brady's going to miss a few weeks, probably four. But when he comes back, he's going to be a very good fantasy quarterback. Don't bank on Reggie Wayne being a stud, because he's 36 and that actually is pretty old and the Patriots have a history of signing free agents who do nothing. But Brady has a history of being an elite quarterback while throwing to mediocre receivers (does anyone actually believe that Julian Edelman is a good football player? Follow-up question: Really?).
Arian Foster, RB, ADP 94.3. You might be able to get him later than this. Foster is injured and no one knows when he'll be back. But it will be before the fantasy playoffs and when he plays he'll be elite (he was the #5 running back last year and when healthy he's consistently very good). If you're in a league with a lot of bench spots or a lot of teams and you want to spend a flier on a guy who could win you your championship if you can make the playoffs, Foster's a decent choice. If you're going to get impatient and cut him week 7, draft someone else.
Darren McFadden, RB, ADP 110.1. Don't tell. But I sneakily like McFadden as a Sleeping Beauty-level sleeper. Joseph Randle, his competition at RB, isn't actually good, and his O-line (Tyron Smith, Ronald Leary, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Doug Free, and somehow La'el Collins off the bench) is legendarily good. Seriously, I can't remember the last time I saw an OL that was this solid across the board. (For reference, the '05 Seahawks were all-time great at LT and LG, but at C, RG, and RT we didn't have the kind of dominance this Dallas team does.) If anyone can make Run-DMC look like a real running back, it's this line, and it wouldn't exactly be the first time we've seen someone come out of Oakland and transform into a better player.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, ADP 119.5. Yeah, we're into the part of the draft where you're throwing your picks at a dartboard blindfolded and hoping to get lucky. Bridgewater probably won't be an elite QB this year, but he's talented, has okay talent around him, and might be able to throw a ton of touchdowns deep to Mike Wallace. We're talking backup quarterback potential here, but the hype tastes so good.
Antonio Gates, TE, ADP 124.9. Gates is an extremely low-risk, high-reward TE prospect this year. You'll be able to get him late, and if he plays well, he could easily eclipse most starters at the position. That's a big if, but everyone in the 13th round is.
Coby Fleener, TE, ADP 132.2. I don't care what anyone thinks. Fleener is going to do stuff this year. I'm grabbing him as a backup TE in a lot of leagues.
2015 HATES:
Adrian Peterson, RB, ADP 3.3. We covered this in the intro, but in case you forgot: Peterson missed all of last year after getting suspended for beating his young son; he's 30 years old with a lot of miles on him; and he's playing with a quarterback in Bridgewater who might run the offense well enough to necessitate a drop in Peterson's usage. I just really, really hate drafting a guy in the early first round who missed a year, even if it's not to injury. Yeah, he did this before and came back to break 2000 yards. That doesn't mean he's going to do it again. Actually, let's say that more strongly: He will not do that again. Peterson has high elite upside, but he also has more downside than any other RB you'd take in the top five picks (I like Bell, Lacy, Charles, Lynch, and even Murray more than Peterson this year). There's no reason to gamble like this when you have this good a pick.
Antonio Brown, WR, ADP 8.1. I just don't like taking receivers in the first round. I'm old-school like that. Yes, Brown is great and has fantastic upside, but we have to look at the little things, like draft order. If you take Brown 8th in a 10-man league, you're looking at a running back like C.J. Anderson or LeSean McCoy as your #1. Which is fine, maybe. But if you take DeMarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch 8th, you can pick up a guy like Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the second, who I like just as much as Brown this year. (Or Calvin! Just saying.) So it comes down to whether you'd rather have Brown and Anderson or Murray and Thomas, and for me that's a really easy choice. Speaking of which...
C.J. Anderson, RB, ADP 11.6. Anderson had about 850 yards last season. I don't care how much you like Kubiak's zone-blocking system; I don't care how great he was in the last eight games of the season; I don't care how sold you are on Denver's offense. He had less than 900 yards and he's going as a #1 RB. He's also playing in a Peyton Manning offense--remember that stat about the last time Indy had an elite fantasy running back? Yeah. Add to that the fact that Anderson's competing with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, both of whom are actually competent backs, and Anderson looks less and less appealing. The addition of Evan Mathis makes Anderson a little more palatable, but not when compared to other guys at his ADP. If this is your first RB pick, get Forte or Murray and snag one of Morris or Forsett in the third or fourth. I like all those guys more than Anderson.
LeSean McCoy, RB, ADP 14.8. DeMarco Murray switched from one team with a great run-blocking line to another team with a great run-blocking line. I think he's going to do fine. McCoy, on the other hand, switched from a team with a great run-blocking line to Buffalo, home of the razorcakes. Buffalo is not a great place to be a fantasy running back. C.J. Spiller had a great year there in 2012; Fred Jackson was pretty good in 2009; and Marshawn had some good years in '07 and '08, but you can never expect the kind of success McCoy saw in Philly. Someone's going to gamble on McCoy and it shouldn't be you.
Jeremy Hill, RB, ADP 18.5. Hill's another guy I covered in the introduction. I see him splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, who's somehow getting forgotten in all the hype, along with the sad fantasy fact that if you're a coach, you'd much rather split carries between your two good backs than have one of them take 95%.
Mark Ingram, RB, ADP 28.4. There are three big rules when it comes to drafting fantasy RBs. Don't draft running backs who play in high-passing-volume offenses; don't draft running backs who are part of a talented committee; and never, ever draft a running back for a team whose last 1000-yard back was Deuce McAllister in 2006. Guess which lucky back all three of these rules apply to? Ingram's playing with Drew Brees, who's a master of the "instead of running it let's just throw a nice short pattern to a receiver you've never heard of" school of play. He's sharing carries with Khiry Robinson, Tim Hightower, and oh yeah CJ Spiller. And that Deuce statistic is real. Ingram might be the worst pick in this year's draft.
Jimmy Graham, TE, ADP 29.0. There aren't three big rules for drafting fantasy TEs, but if there were one of them would definitely be not to take a TE who just switched from the aforementioned heavy-passing offense to one of the heaviest rushing offenses in the league. Graham is a great player, and he'll get a ton of looks in the red zone with the Seahawks. But he's also gotten targeted 125-150 times in each of the last four seasons. Wilson's only going to throw the ball around 450-500 times this season, and he won't throw a third of his targets to Graham. Meanwhile Brees threw at least 650 passes every season of Graham's career. If Graham can repeat last year's not-that-inspiring performance, it'll be a miracle. Don't expect anything like his 2011 or 2013 dominance.
Carlos Hyde, RB, ADP 39.0. Oh yeah, I forgot another rule of running backs. No matter how consistent and great his predecessor was, don't ever expect a back whose career rushing total is 333 yards and 4 TDs to step up and break 1100 yards and 10 TDs. Which is what ESPN's projections have Hyde doing. Especially with all the talent evaporating from San Francisco like so much fog, Hyde is absolutely NOT a great bet to break out. I understand that RB talent is limited in the middle rounds (and the late rounds; really, try to get two RBs by the time Forsett and Morris go), but just realize that taking Hyde is a HUGE gamble.
Frank Gore, RB, ADP 40.3. I already explained why I don't like Gore in the intro. He's a great player (historically) and a first-ballot entrant to the Hall of Very Good, but don't expect starting-level performance from him, even as a flex pick.
Seahawks D/ST, ADP 61.4. No. Don't ever take a D/ST this early. Just don't. The optimal strategy is streaming D/STs, but even if you don't do that, the difference in scoring between the top fantasy D/ST last year (which WASN'T the Seahawks, by the way; they finished third. #1 was the Bills) and the 10th (the worst D/ST you could reasonably expect to start in a 10-team league) was 48 points last year. That's three points per week. The marginal value of a player you take in the early 7th round vs. a player you take in the late 8th round really ought to be more than three points. (If you're taking a D/ST in the 16th round, like you should be, then the marginal value between your 7th-round pick and your 16th-rounder should be WAY bigger than three points.) But more importantly, the breakout potential you get by picking two players in those two slots rather than one and a D/ST is huge. No one's ever won their league by drafting a really good D/ST in the seventh round. But (virtually) everyone who's ever won their league drafted someone good in the middle rounds who broke out.
Joique Bell, RB, ADP 62.4. You know the drill by now. Pass-happy team, RBBC (running back by committee). Last time Detroit produced a 1000-yard back was Reggie Bush in 2013; prior to that it was Kevin Jones in 2004. Bell is injured which makes things a little more interesting, but "interesting" is not something you want to gamble on.
C.J. Spiller, RB, ADP 73.2. See Ingram, Mark. Or actually Mark Ingram since this list isn't sorted by last name. Spiller's a better pick thank Ingram, but only because it's a lot easier to recoup from blowing an 8th rounder than a 3rd.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, ADP 83.8. See Joique Bell. This is the guy who's going to share carries with him. Sharing carries only very rarely leads to fantasy success for both share-carriers. In this case, it won't.
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