* 'Ever' here means since 1960. I have often, publicly, and loudly stated that football began in 1970 (or, more infrequently, in 1981, 1995, or 2004), but in this case I decided to go back to 1960, the first year of the AFL. There is a really good reason for this; it's complicated, but it basically boils down to the fact that the draft started being really competitive and important in 1960. Oh, also, we're only looking at non-supplemental picks here, but I'll address relevant supplemental picks in a few of the drafts.
I actually used some pretty complicated math to make this list, so it's "objective" in the way that sports analysts use the term. I won't get into the details here, but essentially the algorithm I wrote judges the drafts based on both the careers of the best players in the draft and the "average" career of a player from the draft. So a draft having all-time greats improves its stock, as does a draft with a ton of very good players, but you really need both to make the leaderboard.
THE BEST DRAFTS:
#1: 1961.
Quick, name someone who was drafted in 1961! No, Jim Brown was drafted in 1957. Seriously, though, no one I've asked has been able to answer that question. But it turns out, on closer investigation, that the 1961 draft was actually stacked, and this isn't just some weird historical fluke. The top picks of the first round were mostly mediocre; Tommy Mason, Norm Snead, Joe Rutgens, and Marlin McKeever were the first four guys off the board.
But the first round also produced such studs as Mike Ditka, Jimmy Johnson (no, not that Jimmy Johnson; James Earl Johnson), Herb Adderly (one of the old names you have to know), and Bob Lilly. But the later rounds make this draft even better, producing the all-time greats Fran Tarkenton (3.29, meaning a 3rd round pick, 29th overall) and Deacon Jones (14.186, seriously). The class of '61 combined for a mind-boggling 60 First-Team All Pro selections (by FAR the most of all time) and produced 7 Hall of Famers (Tarkenton, Lilly, Adderly, Johnson, Jones, Billy Shaw, and Ditka). It also introduced us to such great Football Names as E.J. Holub, Myron Pottios, Irv Cross, and Houston Antwine. Ant...wine.
#2: 1964.
Lotta old guys you don't hear much about. Carl Eller, Paul Krause, Paul Warfield, Roger Staubach (recognition!), Mel Renfro, Charley Taylor, Leroy Kelly, Bob Hayes, Bob Brown, and Dave Wilcox are the HoFers from this class. Some of them you might recognize their names, others you might not. Don't worry, though, because I can tell you for certain (after copious research) that these guys are good. 1964 had TEN Hall of Famers, which is 25% better than the draft with the second-most. That's an insane amount of talent, even if you recognize very few of the names. Trust the algorithm.
#3: 1983.
Okay, here are some names we know! Dan Marino. John Elway. See, we actually know some players now. Bruce Matthews was in this draft (he was a ridiculously good offensive linemen who was All-Pro at all three interior OL positions and started for at least a season at each of the other two). So was Jim Kelly, the guy who lost four Super Bowls in the early '90s.
Eric Dickerson is the guy you know as the guy who holds the rushing record that Adrian Peterson failed to beat, but whom you should know as the guy who started his career with seasons of 1808 yards (his rookie year!), 2105, 1234, 1821, 1288, and 1659 yards. That's right; he ran for 9915 yards his first six years (and 1311 his seventh). Dickerson has the most rushing yards over the first seven years of his career of ANY running back, beating out LaDainian Tomlinson, Barry Sanders (the rushing GOAT), Emmitt Smith (who played behind the GOAT line), Adrian Peterson, Walter Payton, and Jim Brown (the other GOAT). Now THAT is an incredible list, and I didn't omit anyone. And Dickerson is #1.
Finally, the 1983 draft featured two of the highest-value late-round steals ever: Richard Dent, a DE who went 203rd overall in the 8th round; and Karl Mecklenburg, an LB who went 310th over all in the 12th. (Dent had an unequivocally worse career but made the Hall of Fame, presumably because he played on the great Bears defenses of '85 and '86, while Mecklenberg was better but has only made it to the semi-final round the past four years. EARLY ROUND BIAS!)
#4: 2007.
It may seem early to enthrone the '07 draft class amongst the annals of the all-time greats, but it's not. It's been eight years, for one thing, and most of these guys are already past their primes. Plus my algorithm places them fourth, which is what really matters.
The '07 class was stacked from top to bottom. The Raiders had the first overall pick and took JaMarcus Russell--you can laugh--but despite that, the rest of the draft was actually amazing. Calvin Johnson went second, followed by Joe Thomas; Adrian Peterson was seventh; Patrick Willis, possibly the best middle linebacker I've ever seen, went 11th; Marshawn Lynch was 12th; Darrelle Revis was #14; Joe Staley was picked 28th; Eric Weddle was #37; David Harris, who was apparently amazing in '09 and '10, was the 47th pick; Marshal Yanda went 86th... and JaMarcus Russell went first.
Now, these players might not be Hall of Famers yet, but keep in mind most of them are still playing, earning more and more accolades. As it stands, they already have 29 FTAP selections, which isn't quite as many as any other teams on or near this list, but is still great for seven years. Besides, my algorithm projects 6-7 HOFers (a very good total) from the class. I'm guessing Willis, Revis, Peterson*, Calvin, and Joe Thomas at least are on that level. I'm not sure if anyone else is--my algorithm tends to love the class of '07 a lot because they've been so successful in such a short span--but it's definitely possible we could see Yanda or Weddle (or maybe Lynch?) contend for a spot. Or, who knows? Even JaMarcus Russell! Hahaha. Just kidding.
* Peterson hopefully WON'T make it, not just because he abused his son but also because he's not actually THAT good. But he would have had a good shot based on his achievements, and that's what my algorithm uses.
#5: 1967.
Aaaand we're back to the '60s. Well, turns out there were a lot of great players drafted in the '60s. In this class, the big names are Alan Page (the GOAT DT), Gene Upshaw (a really really good guard), Bob Griese (that guy who quarterbacked the Dolphins' perfect season and later had a kid who grew up to become the less fun half of a quarterback controversy in Chicago during a Super Bowl year with the inexplicable Rex Grossman), Floyd Little, Lem Barney, Willie Lanier, Rayfield Wright, and Ken Houston. Again, these guys were all Hall of Famers, but it's okay if you haven't heard of them.
HM: 1981.
This was maybe the greatest defensive draft ever, primarily because of three players. 1.2 was Lawrence Taylor, the GOAT defensive player, the man who singlehandedly revolutionized the position of OLB, the very notion of pass-rushing, and the role of the left tackle, the man who, along with Mark Gastineau and the Jets' DL, basically forced the NFL to start officially tracking sacks in 1982. 2.38 was Mark Singletary, arguably the greatest MLB of all time and a key player in the Bears' amazing defenses of the '80s. And 1.8 was Ronnie Lott, the greatest safety ever and arguably the most versatile defensive back of all time (he was All-Pro at three positions). Those three guys are responsible, more than anyone, for their teams being the #1 (SF), #2 (Chi), and #3 (NYG) defenses of the 1980s. (It's no coincidence that from '81 to '90, their teams went to 7 Super Bowls, winning all of them--despite all being in the same conference!) These three picks are three of the greatest defensive players ever, and were the cornerstones for the three greatest defenses of the decade, and three of the greatest defenses of all time. That's a lot of 'greatest's and 'of all time's, but they deserve it.
Other players selected in the draft include Rickey Jackson, Howie Long, Russ Grimm, and Kenny Easley, all of whom are either HOFers or (in the case of Easley) were HOF bound before injuries cut short their career.
THE WORST DRAFTS:
t-#1: 1984.
There were no Hall of Famers in this draft, and its 336 players combined for only 8 All-Pro selections. Strangely, that year's supplemental draft featured no less than three HoFers, including one of the greatest QBs and one of the greatest DEs ever in Steve Young and Reggie White, respectively. What???, you ask? 1984 was the year that the NFL held a special supplemental draft for college seniors who had already signed contracts with the CFL or the USFL, after which they played a season or two with their CFL/USFL team and then came over to the NFL. So it's probably not totally fair to call the '84 draft a failure, even though it was.
t-#1: 1992.
There were no HoFers from this class, either. The Colts held both of the first two overall picks and they failed to get even a Pro Bowl player with either of them. Tragically, one of those players was Steve Emtman, a UW alum and one of the greatest college football players ever. There were no All Pros in the first six picks of this draft, and only two in the first round (both with one selection each). The draft as a whole produced 8 FTAP selections, three of which belong to Darren Woodson.
#3: 1966.
Not only are these players you've never heard of, but they're BAD players you've never heard of! I'm not even going to name anyone. There was no one worth knowing in this draft (aside from, perhaps, the lone Hall of Famer, Tom Mack). Their 7 FTAP selections between all drafted players is the third-lowest of any qualifying class (we'll get to the two teams tied for #1).
#4: 1986.
It's a little strange that this team is here, because they do have a combined 14 FTAP selections, which isn't actually that bad. The really bad thing about the '86 draft is how awful the first round was. Now, I should qualify this by saying that the first overall pick, Bo Jackson, is probably one of the greatest athletes ever. But not only was he not a particularly successful football player, but he also refused to play for the team that drafted him (with very good reason--go watch You Don't Know Bo), and even told them so before they drafted him, making the Bucs' first overall pick in this draft possibly the single worst selection in the history of the NFL. (They forfeited his rights before the '87 draft, meaning they literally spent the #1 pick on nothing, despite being warned beforehand.)
The rest of the first round wasn't much better, as only eight players ever made a Pro Bowl, and none was ever named a FTAP. In fact, the first All Pro in the draft was Tom Newberry, taken 50th overall. This draft did send one player, Charles Haley (4.96), to Canton, but it's still pretty abysmal.
#5: 2009.
Subjectively, I think it's a little early to talk about this draft as an all-time bust. Objectively, I would never dream of going against my computer overlord, and it clearly states that the '09 draft was the fifth-worst ever. Here's how bad this draft was: Matthew Stafford, the first overall pick, has made one Pro Bowl in his career. The next SEVEN picks have made a combined total of ZERO. That's seven straight busts from the second pick on. We're talking about the likes of Jason Smith (no longer in the league), Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry (also retired), Mark Sanchez, Andre Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Eugene Monroe. After B.J. Raji's one Pro Bowl at #9, there's another stretch of three players (Michael Crabtree, Aaron Maybin, and Knowshon Moreno) with zero between them. So the first TWELVE players taken in this draft have combined for two Pro Bowls and zero FTAP selections (all the players in this draft combined for an awful 6 FTAPs total). Even if they've only been playing six years, that's unbelievably bad. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if this draft class ends up even higher (lower?) on this list (right now they get helped a little by my algorithm, which thinks they'll have two HOFers, when their best players are Clay Matthews, LeSean McCoy, Matthew Stafford, and Louis Vasquez. I wouldn't be surprised if this class ended up with 0 HOF reps).
HM: 2008.
Yep. Two atrocious draft classes in a row. The '08 class is slightly less atrocious than '09, featuring such
* Just for fun: The 2010 class, as I said, would be #2 on this list. The 2011 class would also be #2, although they score lower than 2010. The 2012 class would be about average. The 2013 class would be bad, but still outside the leaderboard for worst. And the 2014 class throws a Div/0 error. Again, the HTAMAAlgorithms are prone to exaggerate the success of more recent classes, explaining the high placements of the classes of '10 and '11 (although I firmly believe '10 might eventually make this list). For very recent classes (mostly '12-'14), there will be virtually no FTAP selections this early, so it'll probably underrate them. The fact that the '08 and '09 classes still rate this low speaks to just how bad those classes are. (Of course the adjustment for the earlier classes, like '07-'09, is less significant than for the later classes, and shouldn't inflate the ratings much if at all.)
HM: 1976.
One more HM, because it's funny. The first overall pick in this draft, Lee Roy Selmon, was an All-Pro and a Hall of Famer. So was the fifth overall pick, Mike Haynes. Steve Largent went 4.117 and made the Hall of Fame as well, but beyond those three, there's very little talent to speak of in this draft. Jackie Slater and Harry Carson were also HOF inductees, but I'm not really convinced that they should have been; they just played in an era sparse of talent and made a lot of Pro Bowls (and faced little competition in induction) as a result. Because of this weirdness, we get a draft whose players accounted for 5 HOF spots, but only 6 FTAP selections. Meanwhile there are modern players with 4+ FTAP selections who have or will struggle to get into Canton. It's truly bizarre how the voting committee operates.
See you next time!
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