The NFL produces decent All-Decade teams every ten years, but we're an impatient generation and ten years (or more accurately five) is a really long time to wait for an all-decade team. Here's the All-Decade team for the past decade, 2005-2014, which coincidentally happens to correspond perfectly with the time that I've been watching pro football. Preference is given to players who played more years in the last decade, but peak is considered. (E.g. five years of Frank Gore would be better than two years of Adrian Peterson, unless Peterson put up back-to-back 1800-yard seasons or something... which he didn't. In fact he's only broken 1400 yards twice, less than Shaun Alexander and Clinton Portis. Bet you thought it was more.) Let's begin.
QB: Peyton Manning, (Tom Brady).
Manning wins basically every QB battle ever. He just does. Don't talk about playoffs. Joe Flacco is better in the playoffs than Dan Marino, but that doesn't mean he's a better player. (I'm not saying he has a higher passer rating, even though he does. I'm saying Joe Flacco has won more playoff games than Dan Marino did in his career.) Brady gets a spot on the bench on merit of basically establishing his first-ballot Hall-of-Fame career as a passer over the past ten years. (News flash: Brady prior to '05 was basically a worse Russell Wilson. Yes, I'm serious. Go look at the numbers.) Rodgers is too young; Brees is too not good enough; and all other quarterbacks suck. Except Philip Rivers. That dude is hardcore underrated. But also not as good as any of the guys I just named.
RB: Adrian Peterson, (LaDainian Tomlinson).
Remember how I was shitting on Peterson in the first paragraph? He's still the best RB of the past decade by a really wide margin. I just don't like him ever since he beat the shit out of his kid with a stick and then showed a complete absence of remorse throughout the entire judicial process, got a slap on the wrist (not even with a switch), and came back to the NFL. The guy is legitimately a psychopath. But he's also the best running back of the past ten years. I was surprised to see how good Tomlinson has been, since to my memory his career petered out around '09. And to the credit of my memory, it did. But Tomlinson was so incredibly good from '05-'08 (and frankly there haven't been that many great running backs over that span either) that he still makes the bench. (Tomlinson was also incredibly good from '01 (when he was drafted) to '04. Let me be clear: From 2001 to 2008, he ran for 11,760 yards and 126 touchdowns, while also catching for 3801 yards and 15 touchdowns. That's a combined average of 1945 total yards and 17.5 touchdowns a year for eight years. Tomlinson might be the second best running back ever.) Just missing the squad are Frank Gore and Steven Jackson, because they're not actually that good.
FB: Vonta Leach.
Does anyone really even care? (On the off chance you do, Leach is the third big-g Great fullback of the 21st century, after Mack Strong and Lorenzo Neal in that order. This is another not-close race. I don't have a bench fullback because no team ever has a backup fullback.)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, [Wes Welker], (Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne).
Calvin feels more obvious than he actually is; Andre and Fitz are both really close. But Calvin gets the nod (and Johnson is straight better than Fitz). Welker is in square brackets, and on the starting team, because he's a slot receiver. Wayne's here as the fifth wheel, as a testament to being overrated after producing a large body of good-but-not-great work. He's a better Marques Colston.
TE: Antonio Gates, (Jason Witten).
Losing '04 hurts Gates, but he's still pretty clearly at the top of the class. Witten's probably the more versatile TE and arguably the second-best blocking tight end to play at all in this span (to Gronkowski), but Gates's dominance as a receiver gives him the edge. Tony Gonzalez misses out for two reasons: first, he's overrated in every conversation about tight ends, and is a worse player than Gates over his career; and second, by 2005 Gonzo was already well past his prime and frankly didn't hold a candle to these guys.
OT: Jason Peters, Joe Thomas, (Ryan Clady, Joe Staley).
Peters and Thomas have been the two best LTs by far. They've locked down their respective lines, although neither has risen close to the level established by the three Elite LTs of the 21st century, Walter Jones, Jonathan Ogden, and Orlando Pace (in that order). Clady is in the tier below them, while Staley gets the nod over Matt Light, despite having a slightly worse prime, for his greater consistency.
OG: Jahri Evans, Logan Mankins, (Steve Hutchinson, Josh Sitton).
This is an incredibly talented group. The starters are further ahead of Hutchinson than you probably think, primarily because Hutch dropped off hard after '09 (but was still easily good enough before that to secure a spot on the bench). Sitton makes the team despite his youth because he's that good. Evan Mathis misses out despite being the best OG in football (arguably the best lineman) over the past four years because prior to that he did absolutely nothing, and because OG is legitimately one of the most stacked positions on this team.
C: Jeff Saturday, (Nick Mangold).
Saturday is the obvious choice. I think he benefits a LOT from playing with Manning, but that doesn't discount him being great. Mangold is the winner of a tossup between any other centers you care to name. I remember Olin Kreutz being better than he actually was.
[N.B. We're going to do both 4-3 and 3-4 defensive ends, since they're really different positions. We'll consolidate the rest to DTs (including both NTs and non-NTs), OLBs (4-3 and 3-4 OLBs, even though 4-3 OLBs are closer to fast DEs, but I don't feel like sorting out the different schemes and picking four of each), and ILBs (4-3 MLBs and 3-4 ILBs, since I'm legit convinced the jobs are identical).]
43DE: Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, (Mario Williams, Trent Cole).
People forget how dominant Allen was because he's white. I'm serious; race plays a huge role in player perception in the NFL. It's the reason Jordy Nelson and Wes Welker are underrated despite being really solid receivers, and it's almost certainly part of the reason that Luke Kuechly is getting hyped up so much despite not being elite at his position. And if you think that the Luck-vs-Wilson "debate" doesn't hinge on racial issues, you're naive as hell. Do you honestly think that the fact that Luck is white, privileged, tall, and the first overall pick, while Wilson is black, short, probably not as rich as Luck (although his dad was a lawyer), and a third-round choice, doesn't affect their perception? Despite the fact that Wilson has categorically outperformed Luck since they were both drafted? Despite the fact that there was a highly-publicized media storyline last season about whether Wilson was "black" enough? Can you imagine what would happen if Coby Fleener complained "Luck isn't white enough"?? But no, keep talking about how Wilson gets carried by his defense and running game (fun fact: Marshawn Lynch contributed less than 50% of Seattle's rushing yards last season). Keep enabling the not-actually-that-subtle racism of NFL player valuations. Live your life in the double standard and doublethink your way to the "obvious" conclusion that all the best players* in the NFL are the white ones.
(* except wide receivers, defensive ends, and cornerbacks, all of whom have to be black, because those are the "athletic" positions. I would include running backs too, except remember how hard the media flipped for Peyton Hillis? Yeah, they'd love a good white running back. If one existed.)
Anyway. Allen's the best defensive end of the past decade. Peppers is really good, the other two are fillers.
34DE: Justin Smith, JJ Watt, (Brett Keisel, Richard Seymour).
Yes, Watt's that good. No, there aren't that many good 3-4 DEs in the league. Keisel and Seymour make the bench for being decent for the past decade, while Smith was great and easily the best 34DE in the league before Watt came along and blew everyone out of the water. I've written enough about how phenomenally great Watt is, so it's a huge point in favor of Smith that he gets the #1 spot here.
DT: Haloti Ngata, Kevin Williams, (Vince Wilfork, Darnell Dockett).
First off, Suh gets screwed a little bit here. This is mostly because Dockett's had a much longer career, and has been very good (and underrated) for most of it, while Suh's been better but has only played a few years. Also, I've never been convinced that Suh is actually that good (i.e. good enough to earn a spot over a very good player who has more years). He's not JJ Watt. Ngata and Williams are obviously the picks here (Ngata at NT, Williams at DT), while Vince has been the cornerstone (centerpiece?) of the Pats' defense since '04. Kyle Williams is the other snub.
OLB: DeMarcus Ware, Terrell Suggs, (James Harrison, Bart Scott).
Ware's a god. He's one of the best defensive players of the past ten years. Suggs and Harrison are both extremely good players. Scott's the random add-on who's not actually that good. Weirdly there aren't actually four elite-level OLBs over the past decade. How is that possible? Huh.
ILB: Patrick Willis, Brian Urlacher, (Ray Lewis, London Fletcher).
Willis is the clearest choice (he should be a Hall-of-Famer despite only playing seven complete-ish seasons), but all four of these players have been absolutely phenomenal over the last ten years. Urlacher and Lewis are neck and neck for the #2 spot, with both putting up their share of dominant seasons (Urlacher in '05, '06, and '10, and Lewis in '08, '09, and '10). Lewis's achievements are probably more impressive, given that he's a few years older, but Urlacher was a bit better so he gets the starting nod. (Our defensive scheme is a 6-4-5. Yes.) Fletcher was insanely consistent over this span, but his peak was so far below both Urlacher and Lewis that he's a fairly easy #4.
CB: Darrelle Revis, Asante Samuel, (Champ Bailey, Nnamdi Asomugha).
Revis is the obvious pick (his '09 season might be the best by any corner ever, and he's probably the most consistent guy on this list to boot). The next three are pretty neck-and-neck-and-neck. It's worth noting that Champ had the highest prime and Nnamdi fell off hardest, but Asante was probably the most consistent (anyone who's followed Asante's career should be laughing right about now).
S: Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, (Eric Weddle, Brian Dawkins).
Three Hall-of-Famers and Eric Weddle! Haha. Weddle. What a silly name. Reed and Polamalu are pretty easy picks, and they have a nice free safety-strong safety balance. Dawkins in this case is our backup strong safety, even though he's not actually a strong safety (but for some reason a lot of people seem to think he is). Weddle's kinda the odd guy out but Dawkins was past his prime by '05 so he's fourth on the list.
DB: Charles Woodson.
Basically a nickel corner-slash-safety. Ball-hawking fifteenth man? It's a cutting-edge defensive strategy. Woodson gets his own special position because he's not exactly a corner or a nickel or a safety, even though he's amazingly good at all three roles (and, as far as I can tell, functionally immortal). Normally I'd just assign him a position, but I really can't justify that when he's been All-Pro at basically three positions (I guess Ronnie Lott basically did that too). He's not a corner/nickel/safety so much as he's a ball-hawking tiger in the secondary. For the record, even if Woodson didn't get his own position, he'd be good enough to make the team at either corner or safety.
K: Stephen Gostkowski.
Gostkowski beats out Bironas, Bryant, and whomever else you care to name (Vinatieri?) on the grounds of his insane 76.5% make rate from 50+ and his 86.8% rate overall.
P: Shane Lechler.
Lechler's pretty much the best punter ever. Ray Guy is considered the GOAT punter basically on the grounds of mythology, but Lechler is the best punter we've ever seen. (Even relative to competition). I don't actually have a good source for advanced punting statistics, but ESPN has some data over the past 15 years and I found some info on Guy. Annoyingly, the article I found on Guy chose to leave out info from Guy's three best years (1976-78), but I can still compare him based on his three first years (which were also among his best).
Guy kicked 211 punts in his first three seasons. His net averages for these three seasons were 38.7, 34.3, and 35.2 yards per punt, respectively. A total of 26 of these punts (12.3%) were downed, rolled dead, or out of bounds inside the 20 (again, horribly, the article doesn't list fair catches inside the 20). Meanwhile Lechler, over his best three years ('08-'10), had net YPPs of 44.1, 43.9, and 40.8 respectively and landed 90 of his 263 punts (34.2%) inside the 20.
Obviously these numbers aren't perfect (damn the unavailability of useful punting stats from forty years ago). Obviously they're not fully representative of the players or how the game has evolved (the article mentions how Guy transitioned into a more effective, placement-oriented punter in his thirties--which went virtually unrecognized, by the way, as he didn't make a Pro Bowl after 1980, when he was 31--but qualifies it by saying that even then he wasn't far ahead of his peers). And obviously this isn't the time or the place to dispel the Ray Guy is GOAT myth. (And it is a myth--consider the end of that article: "What really matters are the memories, both real and imagined." Can you get less convincing than that?) But the fact that Lechler is the one guy I can point at and say "he's better than the guy widely considered the GOAT at this position" and then back it up means that he's obviously the right choice for this team.
So it goes.
No comments:
Post a Comment