2015 Draft Player Predictions

So I just realized the draft is tomorrow. I like watching tape on college players and predicting how they'll do at the next level (and I do pretty well), but I basically forgot to this year. So I'm doing that tonight, at 1:30 AM, after a couple beers. This is gonna go really well. These are super rough notes because time is of the essence but hopefully they'll make my opinions on each player clear. (These are also mostly pretty extrapolated, with the exception of the first few.) (Also, I'm basing this ENTIRELY on tape. It's possible I'm going to do something apparently dumb like call someone fast who ran a 4.6 40. That just means that's how they came across on tape, which is way more important.) I picked random players from Mike Mayock's last mock draft and tried to get through as many as possible, paying more priority to earlier picks. Enjoy. (Proper capitalization ends here.)

Leonard Williams:

(vs nebraska:)

- REALLY slow off the line. Really slow in general. Slow enough that I’m willing to bet bust.

- Struggles to get off blocks. Beats college linemen who can’t get their hands on him, but he won’t beat pro OL that easy

- That said, good at using his hands to dodge blocks. But if he actually gets blocked, he never gets free.

- Again, he is SO SLOW off the line. That’s not gonna fly. Can’t teach reflexes I guess?

- Unrelated note: Nebraska QB Armstrong is TERRIBLE

- Not much hustle unless he has a direct line to the QB. Which doesn’t happen often.

- Goes unblocked a lot. Reminds me of Clowney in that way. I.e.: a lot of his stats are probs the result of bad college offensive scheming. Won’t happen in the pros.

- Gets double- plus teamed in college. But from what I’ve seen of him, any decent lineman can shut him down 1v1. You just gotta get a block on him. Most of the time the second man just stands there, or blocks Williams in the side or something.

- Seriously, Armstrong is one of the worst college QBs I’ve ever seen. I’m not even watching tape on him, but a HUGE percentage of his throws are to defenders.

(vs utah:)

- Good awareness of where the ball is at all times. Definitely a plus when plays break down. That said, his awareness sometimes leads to hesitation, him standing in space when if he kept pushing he might make something happen. This, in combination with his slowness off the line, is a bad sign.

- Not a great tackler. Misses most arm tackles he goes for. Rarely can hold on unless he has a great angle. Little hustle to close.

Verdict: BIG bust risk. DO NOT DRAFT.

Jameis Winston:

(vs NC State):

- seems to throw a lot of iffy throws and ducks. Gets bailed out by his receivers a good amount.

- Bad pocket presence. Can be a statue. CAN step up (rarely), but otherwise not great at avoiding pressure. He’s athletic enough to theoretically be mobile, but he doesn’t have the instincts or awareness. Good at avoiding rush once he’s out of the pocket, but pocket presence is bad.

- He’s got fast, sure-handed, athletic receivers. They make him look better than he is.

- Struggles on throws of most distances. Seen him make weak throws to screens, flats, corners. Solid over the middle.

- the hilarious part is that in Tampa Bay he MIGHT actually have weapons good enough to bail him out like they did at FSU. But I doubt it. You can’t rely on your receivers to do the shit I’m watching these FSU guys do in this game. FSU’s first TD is a fucking beautiful play on throw to a well-covered receiver.

- Weak to non-wide receivers on the sidelines. Leads a lotta guys out of bounds. Which is better than throwing it short.

- solid on most short passes, although he makes bad decisions and tries to squeeze balls into coverage too often. Inaccurate on most longer throws. Inconsistent.

(vs florida)

- inaccuracy and bad decision-making confirmed.

Marcus mariota:

(vs stanford):

- looks really funny when he runs hahahaha

- Very accurate short and middle.

- very mobile, in and out of pocket. Good throws on the run.

- it’s not just the system. Mariota’s got the skillset to be successful in an NFL offense. Accurate qbs who have good pocket presence and are mobile are an OC’s best friend.

- really good pocket presence

(vs va)

- FAST AS HELL. Looks like the fastest guy on the field (even though he’s probs not).

- I like this kid. If I had to pick a young qb to be my guy for the future, after wilson I’d take Mariota over anyone in the draft or in the nfl (not impressed by the current rookies/sophs). If this kid ends up on a team with a decent offensive scheme he’s gonna be successful. Uuunfortunately he’s gonna be a high pick lol.

- reminds me of Wilson in his accuracy and ability to keep a play alive.

- verdict: DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT.

Dante Fowler Jr.

(vs fsu)

- versatile pass-rusher. I like that.

- can actually get off blocks, unlike williams

- good hustle. I’m tired.

Verdict: solid. Promising.

Ereck Flowers

(vs SC)

- great pass-blocker. Follows through on plays. Strong run-blocker. Good balance. Never gets rocked. I like this kid A LOT. Looks absolutely great to me.

Verdict: Draft.

Brandon Scherff

(vs iowa state)

- like his run blocking. Not so much pass blocking. Gets beat on pass pro a lot. I’d take him at guard, definitely not at LT, maybe at RT if I’m desperate but preferably not. He could be a great guard.

- doesn’t so much block on pass pro plays, but rather just tries to keep them in front of him. This doesn’t work as well. You want to block your guy into the ground, that way he can’t take a second run at you.

Verdict: Draft to be guard. Don’t take as LT.

Bud Dupree

(vs florida)

- apparently not fast enough to cover WRs in coverage?

- not sure what his job is. Like 75% of the time he’s just chilling in space.

- doesn’t seem particularly good in coverage or pass rush. Not sure why you’d draft him.

- the announcer just twice used the word “twist” to describe Dupree running, literally, in a straight line from the DL to the QB. I will never understand the kind of people who go into sports commentating.

- Bad balance. Gets knocked down easy. Not promising if he wants to be a DL.

Verdict: pass (on him in the draft).

Danny shelton

(vs ga st)

- deceptively FAST for a big dude. He’s good at taking up space and has good balance.

- good at getting off blocks to make tackles. This is really crucial for NTs. Also a good tackler, another good skill. Like this kid a lot.

Verdict: draft!

Melvin Gordon

(vs auburn)

- hits the right hole, hard. Goes down a little easy. Doesn’t break a lot of tackles. Doesn’t have the speed to be elite in that facet either. (don’t get me wrong, he’s fast, but to succeed on speed in the nfl you gotta lose everyone the second you hit open grass. He doesn’t.) You ideally want your RB to have one or both of these characteristics. But hitting the hole like he does is a good thing, no doubt.

- seems like a decent blocker.

Verdict: Decent. Probs won’t bust, but don’t expect eliteness. Will probably need a good line to succeed.

Todd Gurley

(vs clemson)

- Awful blocker. Seems too wiry to block effectively.

- FAST. Not Chris Johnson but who is? He’s fast enough. Stays up longer than Gordon. Looks a lot better to me than Gordon from what I’ve seen.

- Slippery, good vision.

- Hahaha his name is “girly”

Verdict: love the way this kid runs. Not a great blocker, but draft him anyway.

Cameron Erving

(vs miami, as C)

- Really solid blocker, especially run. Decent pass although gets beat. Good at switching between different rushers, which is really good for a center. His snaps are consistent.

- gotta be hard blocking for winston when he runs into your back and almost gets grabbed by the guy you’re blocking very effectively. Yep, still low on winston.

- yeah, I don’t need to see replays on game tape. I just press the left arrow key on my keyboard.

- like him as a center way better than LT. He’s still good at LT, but his slightly inconsistent pass blocking is less worrisome at C.

And now it's 3:20 AM. Goodnight and good draft.

The Greatest Seasons, Part II: 2007-2009

Many moons ago I started a project to record the greatest individual seasons by NFL players that I'd ever witnessed (meaning seasons I actually watched from 2006 to present). This is the second series, taking up where I left up in 2007 (I already covered Devin Hester, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Bob Sanders) and going through 2009. As a reminder, I'm giving each season a star rating of one to five. This is not a rating of how great the season was, but rather of how exciting it was to watch. For instance, Walter Jones is the best offensive lineman I've ever seen play, but for his career he'd rate one star on the excitement scale, because all he did was shut down the guy he was up against every play. Meanwhile Percy Harvin back in 2012 (before his injury) wasn't nearly at the same level as Jones, but he was a hell of a lot more electrifying (he'd merit a **** if he made this list, which he won't). Let's go!


2007: (Continued)

Walter Jones: This is Jones's last great season, and it probably wasn't his best. But to qualify that statement, this season is still better than any season by any other left tackle in the decade that I've been watching football (not counting Jones in '05, which was better). Jones was a god among men. He was the best pass-blocking tackle in the league, while simultaneously being the best at blocking for the run. You know how Joe Thomas is widely considered the best LT in the league right now, and has made FTAP in five of the last six years (starting, coincidentally, right after Jones retired)? Jones was not only better than Thomas is at pass-blocking (which is all that Thomas is good at), but he was also equally good at run blocking, something at which Thomas isn't close to elite.

Here are some numbers: Walter Jones played and started 180 games for the Seahawks, during which team Seattle attempted 5,500 passes. Now, the job of a left tackle on a passing play is twofold: stop the pass rusher you're assigned to block from getting to your quarterback by delaying him as long as possible, and don't get caught doing something you're not supposed to. In other words, don't give up sacks and don't get caught holding. In his 5,500 passing snaps, Jones gave up a total of 23 sacks and was flagged for holding on nine occasions (and a number of those sacks came in his last game, when he was old and injured). That means Jones gave up a sack about once in every 240 pass attempts. He was caught holding even less, about once in every 610 passing plays. So in his 12 seasons, Jones gave up a sack a little less than once every eight games, and he was called for holding less than once a season. That's basically a perfect performance (in pass-blocking) from a left tackle.

Jones was a key part of the Seahawks' offensive line from the mid-2000s, when they had one of the greatest O-lines in the history of the sport, enabling Shaun Alexander to run for 1300 yards four times in five seasons from '01 to '05, in the last of which he also broke the league seasonal touchdown record with 27. Don't be fooled by the "lack" of FTAP selections in Jones's profile; he shared the stage, for most of his career, with two other virtually perfect left tackles, Jonathan Ogden and Orlando Pace (either of which would also be the best tackle in the game today). The three of them basically traded off FTAP selections, accounting for the picks in '97, '99, '00, '01 (for two of them), '02, '03 (for two of them), '04, '05, and '07. It's like how you can't fault Drew Brees for only having one career FTAP when he's sharing the quarterbacking stage with Peyton, Brady, and Rodgers. Except Jones is better than Brees ever was.

There are fewer statistics to give in this entry than in most of the others, and fewer highlights to watch on YouTube (although there are a few). Left tackle isn't a glamorous position, even if it's come to be more recognized in recent years (the book's amazing; skip the movie). And in a league increasingly driven by flashy plays and flashier players, it's easy to forget that some of the greatest players in NFL history aren't the guys who make the big plays, but rather the guys who go out every down and play the closest thing we've ever seen to perfect football. That's what Walter Jones did, in '07 and in every other year. Respect. *


2008:

Albert Haynesworth: This happened, and it's my job to remind all of you that this happened. Albert Haynesworth used to be one of the most dominant defensive tackles the league had ever seen. Long before this happened, and long after this, (and by long I mean shortly), Haynesworth had one of the finest seasons any defensive tackle has had to date. He was incredible. He was absolutely unblockable, and usually could beat two blockers at one time. He was huge and literally ate the opponent's running game. He was so dominant at getting past blockers that he put up 8.5 sacks from the nose tackle position. (Nose tackles aren't supposed to get sacks. They're supposed to eat up--haha--space in the middle of the offensive line. There's a reason why Vince Wilfork has never broken 3.5 sacks in his career, and why most of Haloti Ngata's statistical success has come from playing other positions, either DE or non-NT DT.) He was a similar phenomenon to JJ Watt, in that he was so dominant at what he was supposed do to at his position that it flooded over into other aspects of the game and he became absurdly dominant across the board (and quite honestly his '09 season is up there with Watt's 2012-2014 in the annals of the all-time great defensive seasons, although he certainly didn't have Watt's versatility). Haynesworth was an absolute force of nature, and if he could have kept his personality in check (or, in fact, if he had a shred of Watt's discipline), he could have been one of the greatest players to ever play the game. Unfortunately that was not the case, and he belly-flopped out of the league a few years later (after signing the NFL's first defensive $100 million contract, since matched by Watt and exceeded by Ndamukong Suh), never coming close to returning to the dominance of his '08 season. But it happened, and it was breathtaking to watch. **

Nnamdi Asomugha: Nnamdi is a strange guy. For years he played quietly in Oakland, and for a lot of that time no one really knew he existed. It wasn't until 2008 that analysts noticed that there was a guy on the field who the quarterback never threw the ball at. Oakland had a bad defense, so Asomugha got to sit on his island, completely shutting down his receiver, and never get targeted. It's strange to praise a player for a lack of stats, but that's exactly what made Asomugha so remarkable. No one really knows how good he was, because no one wanted to throw at him. As a result he got virtually no interceptions (two over his three-year "prime") and very few passes defensed (19 over the same span), even though he certainly had the skills to put up much bigger numbers (in '06, back when QBs still threw at him, he picked off 8 passes and defensed 19, a solid season by any standard). He survived, and thrived, in Oakland as one of the best corners in the league almost entirely on reputation. When he left Oakland for Philadelphia (DREAM TEAM) and started playing badly (defensive players in new schemes often do), people assumed he'd never really been that good. And honestly, because of the nature of his success in Oakland, it's hard to say for certain that he ever was. But I'll say this much: there are not a lot of cornerbacks that scared QBs so much that they eschewed an entire side of the field. Richard Sherman did that, and Darrelle Revis, and Champ Bailey and Deion Sanders. But not a lot more. When your reputation influences a game like that, you deserve it. *


2009:

Darrelle Revis: Now this is a cornerbacking season that you can't argue against. Revis in '09 set a standard for coverage that we may never have seen before, and we may never see again. I'll brush off all the basic stuff first: He did decently in the conventional stats and dominated every advanced stat, but that's true for most guys on this list. Let's get into the nitty gritty of it. Here's every #1 receiver Revis (presumably) matched up against, and how they did against him. (It's possible I'm getting some of the matchups wrong, because I don't have an eidetic memory nor tape of the season, but these are the guys he almost certainly would have matched up with. I know several of these for a fact and the rest are based on the guys I know were the #1 options for their teams and the guys who performed best for their teams that year. Besides, the results speak for themselves.)

• Game 1: Andre Johnson, 4 catches for 35 yards and 0 TDs (henceforth 4/35/0).
• Game 2: Randy Moss, 4/24/0.
• Game 3: Kenny Britt, 4/59/0.
• Game 4: Marques Colston, 2/33/0.
• Game 5: Davone Bess, 3/18/0.
• Game 6: Terrell Owens, 3/13/0.
• Game 7: Louis Murphy, 4/58/0.
• Game 8: Davone Bess, 4/18/0.
• Game 9: Mike Sims-Walker, 3/49/1.
• Game 10: Randy Moss, 5/34/1.
• Game 11: Steve Smith, 1/5/0.
• Game 12: Terrell Owens, 3/31/0.
• Game 13: Antonio Bryant, 2/22/0.
• Game 14: Roddy White, 4/33/0.
• Game 15: Reggie Wayne, 3/33/0.
• Game 16: Chad Johnson, 0/0/0.

Hooooly shit. If you're not looking at that list with your eyes wide and your jaw gaping, you're crazy. That's one of the single most impressive football achievements I've ever seen. Revis went out and matched up with the best in the league every week, including multiple future Hall-of-Famers (Andre, Moss, Owens), several more borderline-HOF players (Smith, White, Wayne, Chad), and several other #1 options, and he shut them all down. (A hypothetical composite of all these receivers to make a single receiver, "#1 Receivers Vs. Revis", or NumReVIs, would have finished the season with 49 catches for 465 yards and 2 TDs. That's a bad season by any standards, and a terrible season for NumReVIs, who, again, is made up exclusively of #1 receivers.)

I remember, as a part-time Patriots fan, being excited when Randy Moss scored his touchdown in game 10, but looking back at this list I realize that that still wasn't a very good game. NONE of these games can be considered "good." In fact, by the standards of the receivers we're talking about, just about every one of these games is downright terrible (except Mike Sims-Walker's, surprisingly, and his still wasn't anything special). That's what Revis did. He went out there, against the best in the business in a period of VERY high-level receiving talent, and he made everyone look like garbage. I've never seen a corner dominate quite like that. **

NFL All-Decade Team (2005-2014)

The NFL produces decent All-Decade teams every ten years, but we're an impatient generation and ten years (or more accurately five) is a really long time to wait for an all-decade team. Here's the All-Decade team for the past decade, 2005-2014, which coincidentally happens to correspond perfectly with the time that I've been watching pro football. Preference is given to players who played more years in the last decade, but peak is considered. (E.g. five years of Frank Gore would be better than two years of Adrian Peterson, unless Peterson put up back-to-back 1800-yard seasons or something... which he didn't. In fact he's only broken 1400 yards twice, less than Shaun Alexander and Clinton Portis. Bet you thought it was more.) Let's begin.

QB: Peyton Manning, (Tom Brady).
Manning wins basically every QB battle ever. He just does. Don't talk about playoffs. Joe Flacco is better in the playoffs than Dan Marino, but that doesn't mean he's a better player. (I'm not saying he has a higher passer rating, even though he does. I'm saying Joe Flacco has won more playoff games than Dan Marino did in his career.) Brady gets a spot on the bench on merit of basically establishing his first-ballot Hall-of-Fame career as a passer over the past ten years. (News flash: Brady prior to '05 was basically a worse Russell Wilson. Yes, I'm serious. Go look at the numbers.) Rodgers is too young; Brees is too not good enough; and all other quarterbacks suck. Except Philip Rivers. That dude is hardcore underrated. But also not as good as any of the guys I just named.

RB: Adrian Peterson, (LaDainian Tomlinson).
Remember how I was shitting on Peterson in the first paragraph? He's still the best RB of the past decade by a really wide margin. I just don't like him ever since he beat the shit out of his kid with a stick and then showed a complete absence of remorse throughout the entire judicial process, got a slap on the wrist (not even with a switch), and came back to the NFL. The guy is legitimately a psychopath. But he's also the best running back of the past ten years. I was surprised to see how good Tomlinson has been, since to my memory his career petered out around '09. And to the credit of my memory, it did. But Tomlinson was so incredibly good from '05-'08 (and frankly there haven't been that many great running backs over that span either) that he still makes the bench. (Tomlinson was also incredibly good from '01 (when he was drafted) to '04. Let me be clear: From 2001 to 2008, he ran for 11,760 yards and 126 touchdowns, while also catching for 3801 yards and 15 touchdowns. That's a combined average of 1945 total yards and 17.5 touchdowns a year for eight years. Tomlinson might be the second best running back ever.) Just missing the squad are Frank Gore and Steven Jackson, because they're not actually that good.

FB: Vonta Leach.
Does anyone really even care? (On the off chance you do, Leach is the third big-g Great fullback of the 21st century, after Mack Strong and Lorenzo Neal in that order. This is another not-close race. I don't have a bench fullback because no team ever has a backup fullback.)

WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, [Wes Welker], (Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne).
Calvin feels more obvious than he actually is; Andre and Fitz are both really close. But Calvin gets the nod (and Johnson is straight better than Fitz). Welker is in square brackets, and on the starting team, because he's a slot receiver. Wayne's here as the fifth wheel, as a testament to being overrated after producing a large body of good-but-not-great work. He's a better Marques Colston.

TE: Antonio Gates, (Jason Witten).
Losing '04 hurts Gates, but he's still pretty clearly at the top of the class. Witten's probably the more versatile TE and arguably the second-best blocking tight end to play at all in this span (to Gronkowski), but Gates's dominance as a receiver gives him the edge. Tony Gonzalez misses out for two reasons: first, he's overrated in every conversation about tight ends, and is a worse player than Gates over his career; and second, by 2005 Gonzo was already well past his prime and frankly didn't hold a candle to these guys.

OT: Jason Peters, Joe Thomas, (Ryan Clady, Joe Staley).
Peters and Thomas have been the two best LTs by far. They've locked down their respective lines, although neither has risen close to the level established by the three Elite LTs of the 21st century, Walter Jones, Jonathan Ogden, and Orlando Pace (in that order). Clady is in the tier below them, while Staley gets the nod over Matt Light, despite having a slightly worse prime, for his greater consistency.

OG: Jahri Evans, Logan Mankins, (Steve Hutchinson, Josh Sitton).
This is an incredibly talented group. The starters are further ahead of Hutchinson than you probably think, primarily because Hutch dropped off hard after '09 (but was still easily good enough before that to secure a spot on the bench). Sitton makes the team despite his youth because he's that good. Evan Mathis misses out despite being the best OG in football (arguably the best lineman) over the past four years because prior to that he did absolutely nothing, and because OG is legitimately one of the most stacked positions on this team.

C: Jeff Saturday, (Nick Mangold).
Saturday is the obvious choice. I think he benefits a LOT from playing with Manning, but that doesn't discount him being great. Mangold is the winner of a tossup between any other centers you care to name. I remember Olin Kreutz being better than he actually was.

[N.B. We're going to do both 4-3 and 3-4 defensive ends, since they're really different positions. We'll consolidate the rest to DTs (including both NTs and non-NTs), OLBs (4-3 and 3-4 OLBs, even though 4-3 OLBs are closer to fast DEs, but I don't feel like sorting out the different schemes and picking four of each), and ILBs (4-3 MLBs and 3-4 ILBs, since I'm legit convinced the jobs are identical).]

43DE: Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, (Mario Williams, Trent Cole).
People forget how dominant Allen was because he's white. I'm serious; race plays a huge role in player perception in the NFL. It's the reason Jordy Nelson and Wes Welker are underrated despite being really solid receivers, and it's almost certainly part of the reason that Luke Kuechly is getting hyped up so much despite not being elite at his position. And if you think that the Luck-vs-Wilson "debate" doesn't hinge on racial issues, you're naive as hell. Do you honestly think that the fact that Luck is white, privileged, tall, and the first overall pick, while Wilson is black, short, probably not as rich as Luck (although his dad was a lawyer), and a third-round choice, doesn't affect their perception? Despite the fact that Wilson has categorically outperformed Luck since they were both drafted? Despite the fact that there was a highly-publicized media storyline last season about whether Wilson was "black" enough? Can you imagine what would happen if Coby Fleener complained "Luck isn't white enough"?? But no, keep talking about how Wilson gets carried by his defense and running game (fun fact: Marshawn Lynch contributed less than 50% of Seattle's rushing yards last season). Keep enabling the not-actually-that-subtle racism of NFL player valuations. Live your life in the double standard and doublethink your way to the "obvious" conclusion that all the best players* in the NFL are the white ones.
(* except wide receivers, defensive ends, and cornerbacks, all of whom have to be black, because those are the "athletic" positions. I would include running backs too, except remember how hard the media flipped for Peyton Hillis? Yeah, they'd love a good white running back. If one existed.)

Anyway. Allen's the best defensive end of the past decade. Peppers is really good, the other two are fillers.

34DE: Justin Smith, JJ Watt, (Brett Keisel, Richard Seymour).
Yes, Watt's that good. No, there aren't that many good 3-4 DEs in the league. Keisel and Seymour make the bench for being decent for the past decade, while Smith was great and easily the best 34DE in the league before Watt came along and blew everyone out of the water. I've written enough about how phenomenally great Watt is, so it's a huge point in favor of Smith that he gets the #1 spot here.

DT: Haloti Ngata, Kevin Williams, (Vince Wilfork, Darnell Dockett).
First off, Suh gets screwed a little bit here. This is mostly because Dockett's had a much longer career, and has been very good (and underrated) for most of it, while Suh's been better but has only played a few years. Also, I've never been convinced that Suh is actually that good (i.e. good enough to earn a spot over a very good player who has more years). He's not JJ Watt. Ngata and Williams are obviously the picks here (Ngata at NT, Williams at DT), while Vince has been the cornerstone (centerpiece?) of the Pats' defense since '04. Kyle Williams is the other snub.

OLB: DeMarcus Ware, Terrell Suggs, (James Harrison, Bart Scott).
Ware's a god. He's one of the best defensive players of the past ten years. Suggs and Harrison are both extremely good players. Scott's the random add-on who's not actually that good. Weirdly there aren't actually four elite-level OLBs over the past decade. How is that possible? Huh.

ILB: Patrick Willis, Brian Urlacher, (Ray Lewis, London Fletcher).
Willis is the clearest choice (he should be a Hall-of-Famer despite only playing seven complete-ish seasons), but all four of these players have been absolutely phenomenal over the last ten years. Urlacher and Lewis are neck and neck for the #2 spot, with both putting up their share of dominant seasons (Urlacher in '05, '06, and '10, and Lewis in '08, '09, and '10). Lewis's achievements are probably more impressive, given that he's a few years older, but Urlacher was a bit better so he gets the starting nod. (Our defensive scheme is a 6-4-5. Yes.) Fletcher was insanely consistent over this span, but his peak was so far below both Urlacher and Lewis that he's a fairly easy #4.

CB: Darrelle Revis, Asante Samuel, (Champ Bailey, Nnamdi Asomugha).
Revis is the obvious pick (his '09 season might be the best by any corner ever, and he's probably the most consistent guy on this list to boot). The next three are pretty neck-and-neck-and-neck. It's worth noting that Champ had the highest prime and Nnamdi fell off hardest, but Asante was probably the most consistent (anyone who's followed Asante's career should be laughing right about now).

S: Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, (Eric Weddle, Brian Dawkins).
Three Hall-of-Famers and Eric Weddle! Haha. Weddle. What a silly name. Reed and Polamalu are pretty easy picks, and they have a nice free safety-strong safety balance. Dawkins in this case is our backup strong safety, even though he's not actually a strong safety (but for some reason a lot of people seem to think he is). Weddle's kinda the odd guy out but Dawkins was past his prime by '05 so he's fourth on the list.

DB: Charles Woodson.
Basically a nickel corner-slash-safety. Ball-hawking fifteenth man? It's a cutting-edge defensive strategy. Woodson gets his own special position because he's not exactly a corner or a nickel or a safety, even though he's amazingly good at all three roles (and, as far as I can tell, functionally immortal). Normally I'd just assign him a position, but I really can't justify that when he's been All-Pro at basically three positions (I guess Ronnie Lott basically did that too). He's not a corner/nickel/safety so much as he's a ball-hawking tiger in the secondary. For the record, even if Woodson didn't get his own position, he'd be good enough to make the team at either corner or safety.

K: Stephen Gostkowski.
Gostkowski beats out Bironas, Bryant, and whomever else you care to name (Vinatieri?) on the grounds of his insane 76.5% make rate from 50+ and his 86.8% rate overall.

P: Shane Lechler.
Lechler's pretty much the best punter ever. Ray Guy is considered the GOAT punter basically on the grounds of mythology, but Lechler is the best punter we've ever seen. (Even relative to competition). I don't actually have a good source for advanced punting statistics, but ESPN has some data over the past 15 years and I found some info on Guy. Annoyingly, the article I found on Guy chose to leave out info from Guy's three best years (1976-78), but I can still compare him based on his three first years (which were also among his best).

Guy kicked 211 punts in his first three seasons. His net averages for these three seasons were 38.7, 34.3, and 35.2 yards per punt, respectively. A total of 26 of these punts (12.3%) were downed, rolled dead, or out of bounds inside the 20 (again, horribly, the article doesn't list fair catches inside the 20). Meanwhile Lechler, over his best three years ('08-'10), had net YPPs of 44.1, 43.9, and 40.8 respectively and landed 90 of his 263 punts (34.2%) inside the 20.

Obviously these numbers aren't perfect (damn the unavailability of useful punting stats from forty years ago). Obviously they're not fully representative of the players or how the game has evolved (the article mentions how Guy transitioned into a more effective, placement-oriented punter in his thirties--which went virtually unrecognized, by the way, as he didn't make a Pro Bowl after 1980, when he was 31--but qualifies it by saying that even then he wasn't far ahead of his peers). And obviously this isn't the time or the place to dispel the Ray Guy is GOAT myth. (And it is a myth--consider the end of that article: "What really matters are the memories, both real and imagined." Can you get less convincing than that?) But the fact that Lechler is the one guy I can point at and say "he's better than the guy widely considered the GOAT at this position" and then back it up means that he's obviously the right choice for this team.

So it goes.