Friday, August 15, 2014

The Ultimate 53-man Roster

A few days ago, Mark Dominik published an article for ESPN.com (and magazine) entitled "The ultimate 53-man NFL roster." His goal was to assemble the best possible 53-man roster within the constraints of the salary cap, based on how much money each player will cost in the 2014 season. It's an interesting concept, but there are a few problems with Dominik's approach, and when I read the article I thought I could do it better. So I did.

QB: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles. Wilson and Foles are two extraordinarily cheap options who perform at an elite level at the most expensive position in football. For the past two years, Wilson has notched a passer rating of at least 100, while last year Foles led all QBs in passer rating with an all-time season. The main argument against both these players (and in favor of another player, usually one much more established and MUCH more expensive) is that they only succeed because of their star-studded surrounding casts. My response to this: This team I’m constructing is literally the most talented roster ever assembled (outside of the Pro Bowl). If these guys can do as well as they’ve done with their relatively sparse talent, imagine what they’ll do with guys this good.
Why my choices are better: Brady is insanely expensive and, quite honestly, has underperformed both Wilson and Foles the past few years. Luck is surprisingly expensive and hasn’t even begun to prove that he’s worthy of being on this roster. And nobody goes three deep on QB anymore.

RB: Matt Forte, Alfred Morris, Eddie Lacy, Bruce Miller. Forte is an elite RB, rushing and out of the backfield. In my opinion he’s the cheapest elite RB available. Morris and Lacy are quality depth. And Miller is an excellent FB across the board.
Why my choices are better: They’re not, really. They’re just cheaper. Miller is a better blocker than Clay, and H-back is a stupid name for a position.

WR: AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, TY Hilton. Green, Jones, Bryant, and Thomas are all elite at their position. Put them together and watch the fireworks. You thought Wilson was good with Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate? Just wait and see. Brown is a fun deep threat for 5WR sets, and Hilton is my sleeper who I think might break out if he ever gets a good QB (yeah I went there).
Why my choices are better: The differences here are that I picked Jones and Brown over Jeffery. I think I clearly came out ahead in talent, but he got them for cheaper. So I win. Right?

TE: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Coby Fleener. Graham’s obvious. Thomas is pretty good for his cost. And Fleener is underrated.
Why my choices are better: Like I said, Fleener is underrated.

OL: Joe Staley, Evan Mathis, Jason Kelce, Josh Sitton, Sebastian Vollmer, Lamar Holmes, Kyle Long, Brian De la Puente, Larry Warford, Tyson Clabo. Do I even need to explain this? My guys are elite across the board. Staley-Mathis-Kelce-Sitton-Vollmer is the best line ever assembled, and Holmes, Long, De la Puente, Warford, and Clabo are all starter-quality guys who can slot in at various spots across the board.
Why my choices are better: What was Dominik even doing here?? He has, by my count, one (1) elite OL, two (2) good ones, and a bunch of mediocre-to-okay ones. He even chose J. R. Sweezy, for some insane reason. I'm a hardcore Seahawks fan and even I would never even consider Sweezy. Weird.

DE: JJ Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, Cameron Jordan, Corey Liuget. I'm running a 3-4, obviously. Watt is the best defensive player in the league and an obvious choice; Wilkerson is the second-best 3-4 DE in the league and another obvious choice. Beyond that, there isn't a whole lot of talent to choose from, but Jordan is a very good player and will be more than competent in the rotation, and Liuget gives some talent from a depth position.
Why my choices are better: Dominik doesn't seem to understand even the basics of defensive schemes. I didn't come here with the intent to insult him, but he's listing JJ Watt (the prototypical 5-tech, aka 3-4 DE), Robert Quinn (the prototypical 9-tech, aka 4-3 pass-rushing DE), and Justin Houston (the prototypical 3-4 OLB) at the same position simply screams that he doesn't understand even the differences between a 4-3 and a 3-4. Watt might be talented enough to make it work, but the 6'4, 305 lb Muhammad Wilkerson is certainly not a traditional 4-3 DE (although he could work as the "big end" in a Seahawks-esque system). What's more, while Houston might be able to fit as a 4-3 rush end, he'd have to be lining up as wide as Quinn, and even then he might get physically outmatched by the LT. If Dominik is hoping for a 3-4, his choices of Quinn and Houston are just absurd.

DT: Dontari Poe, Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei. Here I've got three of the most dominant nose tackles in the game, the perfect complement to my dominant defensive ends. Poe is massively dangerous, and Richardson and Star are excellent backups.
Why my choices are better: I have Dontari Poe. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of difference, but I did get the perfect guys for my scheme, so there's that.

ILB: Bobby Wagner, Luke Kuechly, Lavonte David, Akeem Jordan. Wagner and Kuechly are two of the best ILBs in the game, and David is the icing on the cake. David can play anywhere on the field and will dramatically improve the defense's performance. He gives us a tremendous amount of versatility. Jordan is depth.
Why my choices are better: Dominik grouped all his LBs together, so I'll do the whole comparison in the next part.

OLB: Justin Houston, Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan. Houston and Smith are two elite OLBs in a traditional scheme, although it remains to be seen just how poor a choice Smith is. Quinn is admittedly a 4-3 DE, but I can line him up at approximately 9-tech in this scheme and let him do his thing.
Why my choices are better: Dominik actually has pretty solid choices here, with Kuechly, Wagner, David, and Vontaze Burfict. The real advantages my squad has are the pass-rushing skills of Quinn and Houston, which neither Burfict nor David will bring from the outside.

CB: Richard Sherman, Brent Grimes, Charles Tillman, Byron Maxwell, Desmond Trufant, Logan Ryan. Sherman's my elite #1, and Tillman and Grimes will be more than enough to cover the #2 and #3 wideout, between them. Maxwell was the underrated weapon in Seattle's secondary next year, and matching him up with a #4 wideout is just unfair. Trufant is underrated and improving, and Ryan is depth.
Why my choices are better: Well, Dominik got Sherman, Revis, and Peterson as his three top choices. I think my depth guys are clearly better, but Revis has the clear edge over Grimes. Peterson is overrated, though, and I prefer either Grimes or Tillman to him (and, if he pans out, even Maxwell).

S: Jairus Byrd, TJ Ward, Rahim Moore, Tyrann Mathieu. Byrd and Ward are my dominant starters, like a poor man's Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. (It's sad how my dream team's safeties are worse than my real-life team's safeties.) Moore and Mathieu are quality depth, although with my corners I won't really need them.
Why my choices are better: Ward tops Vaccaro, and my depth guys are straight-up better.

ST: Greg Zuerlein, Johnny Hekker, Clint Gresham: Do you really care? I picked these guys essentially at random.
Why my choices are better: Kicker's not really. The other two I barely even know the guys Dominik picked, but I know mine are solid, so I'll assume I won. Who really cares?

Total: $131.603 million. Which means I technically have $1.3683 million to spend. I could probably upgrade some depth positions, but who really cares?

To summarize: I win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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